MARA-LC25 @ $12.36 UNDERWATER $14.04 (53.2% below BE SS)
⚠ EARNINGS · DO NOT SELL INCOME INTO IT
MARA reports 2026-07-29 (Wed), in 15 days. The recommended CC (17d) expires on/after it, so selling now holds a short call through the earnings gap, a report can blow past your strike overnight and cap you at a loss. Wait for the print, or sell only an expiry that closes BEFORE 2026-07-29.
PARTIAL: 5 of 250 contracts already capped (5x $14C). FIGHTing the 245 uncapped; all figures (income, hedge, cap give-up) are for that slice.
245 of 250 contracts (24,500 sh uncapped) | BE SS: $26.40 | CC-SS: $15.21 | IV: HIGH | Accounts: Neville:0865
LC: $25 exp 2027-06-17 (entry $2.627/sh)
SP: $15 exp 2027-06-17 (entry $5.241/sh)
HP: $13 exp 2027-06-17 (entry $4.025/sh)
Economics
| Max Loss | $83,300 | (ND $1.40 + SW $2) x 24500 |
| Normal income ref | $35,453/mo | 95% ann ROI on ML |
| Hedge (static, never rolled) | $0/mo | HP expiry = SP LEAPS; decay ≈ $10,873/mo (info only, already in marks) |
| Unrealized P&L | $-31,973 | fortress legs from IBKR |
INCOME GOALPOSTS & VELOCITY
50% INCOME FLOOR
$17,726/mo
HEDGE COVER
$0/mo (static)
NORMAL INCOME
$35,453/mo (ATM CC, chain)
IC VELOCITY
1.0 mo to earn back $34,300
ML VELOCITY
2.3 mo to earn back $83,300
NOT a deep drawdown: a CC at CC-SS $15.21 (probe: $15C 17d) still earns $8,647/mo (24% of normal). Sell the normal CC at/above CC-SS; a FIGHT CC below it is not needed here.
🏦 CAMPAIGN LEDGER , realized CC income since 2026-07-13; banked cash shrinks the hole (shown as an info-only banked floor, the recommended CC-SS stays the pure recovery strike; seeded from open positions, reconciled from IBKR executions nightly)
Banked since 2026-07-13
$0
Hole (after banked)
$31,973
was $31,973 · 0% earned back
| Open leg | Acct | Credit/sh | In flight | Opened |
|---|
| 5x $13.5C 17 Jul 2026 | U13190865 | $0.11 | $56 | 2026-07-14 |
TECHNICALS (cc_timing weekly gate + daily trigger)
WEEKLYNEUTRAL · %B 58 (live) · RSI 52 · MACD bullish, hist falling
DAILYFALLING (provisional) · RSI 45 · %B 21 · hist rising (nightly)
LEVELSUpper BB (CC ceiling) $15.98 (+29%) · daily UBB $15.26 · 1-wk expected move ±$2 (chain IV)
SETUPNo tilt: engine default. (advisory; floors and picks are chain-only)
⚠ Next earnings 2026-07-29: candidates whose expiry crosses it are flagged in the spectrum; EV is unreliable across earnings.
NOT a deep drawdown. A CC at/above CC-SS $15.21 keeps this fortress whole if assigned, so there is no need to FIGHT below it. Three income options to consider, richer → safer, all at/above CC-SS. Click a card for its if-challenged roll menu.
🎯 Recommended · sell 245 × $15.50 31 Jul 2026 (17d) · richest strike still ≥80% survivalroll menu if challenged ▾
Survival (stays ≤ $15.50)
88%
Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 245 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 8 of 17); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic
Buyback gross: $1.32/sh now → $0.94 mid-life → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.13/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.81/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (245 ct) | POP / surv
of new CC |
|---|
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP.
Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened.
🛡 Safer · sell 245 × $16 31 Jul 2026 (17d) · higher survival, lighter premiumroll menu if challenged ▾
Survival (stays ≤ $16)
91%
Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 245 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 8 of 17); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic
Buyback gross: $1.39/sh now → $0.98 mid-life → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.09/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.89/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (245 ct) | POP / surv
of new CC |
|---|
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP.
Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened.
🛡 Safer · sell 245 × $21 24 Jul 2026 (10d) · higher survival, lighter premiumroll menu if challenged ▾
Survival (stays ≤ $21)
99%
Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 245 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 5 of 10); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic
Buyback gross: $1.62/sh now → $1.14 mid-life → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.01/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$1.13/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (245 ct) | POP / surv
of new CC |
|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$21 | 31 Jul 2026 | 12d left | +$0.46/sh | +$11,343 cycle +$11,588 | 67% surv 55% |
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$22 | 31 Jul 2026 | 12d left | +$0.06/sh | +$1,372 cycle +$1,617 | 72% surv 63% |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$22 | 31 Jul 2026 | 12d left | +$0.06/sh | +$1,372 cycle +$1,617 | 72% surv 63% |
| SS $26 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder |
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP.
Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened.
⚔ FIGHT CC options · full candidate scan (9 clear the floor), click to expand
Every eligible strike x expiry in the 3-45 DTE band (3 expiries scanned, 9 clear the income floor), each sized to the minimum contracts that clear it. Sorted by survival (safest first): the primary 🎯 is the safest; rows below trade safety for income.
Fortress delta: 0.442 (IBKR) | Recovery@SS: +$30,871 (un-capped fortress gain if stock rallies to SS) | Do-nothing @ SS: $-857
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|
| $13.50 | 3d | 17 Jul 2026 | $0.09 | 197/245 | $17,730 | $17,874 | 83% | 84% | +$1,301 | -$31,929 | 93.1% | $-32,983 (vs do-nothing $-32,126) |
| $13.50 | 10d | 24 Jul 2026 | $0.28 | 212/245 | $17,808 | $17,907 | 73% | 78% | +$107 | -$30,332 | 88.4% | $-31,401 (vs do-nothing $-30,544) |
| $13 | 3d | 17 Jul 2026 | $0.18 | 99/245 | $17,820 | $18,258 | 71% | 76% | +$373 | -$20,105 | 58.6% | $-21,060 (vs do-nothing $-20,204) |
| $13.50 | 17d | 31 Jul 2026 | $0.46 | 219/245 | $17,778 | $17,856 | 70% | 77% | +$1,152 | -$27,392 | 79.9% | $-28,467 (vs do-nothing $-27,611) |
| $13 | 10d | 24 Jul 2026 | $0.40 | 148/245 | $17,760 | $18,051 | 65% | 73% | $-295 | -$26,799 | 78.1% | $-27,804 (vs do-nothing $-26,947) |
| $13 | 17d | 31 Jul 2026 | $0.61 | 165/245 | $17,762 | $18,002 | 64% | 73% | +$741 | -$26,413 | 77.0% | $-27,434 (vs do-nothing $-26,578) |
| $12.50 | 3d | 17 Jul 2026 | $0.31 | 58/245 | $17,980 | $18,541 | 57% | 66% | $-1,925 | -$13,924 | 40.6% | $-14,839 (vs do-nothing $-13,982) |
| $12.50 | 17d | 31 Jul 2026 | $0.82 | 123/245 | $17,799 | $18,165 | 56% | 68% | +$818 | -$23,256 | 67.8% | $-24,236 (vs do-nothing $-23,379) |
| $12.50 | 10d | 24 Jul 2026 | $0.57 | 104/245 | $17,784 | $18,207 | 56% | 67% | $-883 | -$22,264 | 64.9% | $-23,225 (vs do-nothing $-22,368) |
Income/mo = FIGHT leg gross, DTE-prorated. Net/mo = FIGHT + conservative CC gross minus hedge cost. POP (mid) = probability stock closes at or below (strike + mid premium) at expiry, per-strike chain IV when available. Survival = CC expires fully worthless. EV/mo = premium minus expected buyback, monthly, with realized vol = IV x 85% (variance risk premium 15%). Cap give-up @ SS = recovery mortgaged on a V-bounce to SS, net of premium. Total P&L @ SS = absolute position P&L if the stock closes at SS; "vs do-nothing" = opportunity cost against holding all 245 contracts at the conservative CC.