MARA-LC25 @ $11.93 UNDERWATER $14.47 (54.8% below BE SS)
⚠ EARNINGS · DO NOT SELL INCOME INTO IT
MARA reports 2026-07-29 (Wed), in 14 days. The recommended CC (16d) expires on/after it, so selling now holds a short call through the earnings gap, a report can blow past your strike overnight and cap you at a loss. Wait for the print, or sell only an expiry that closes BEFORE 2026-07-29.
250 contracts (25,000 sh) | BE SS: $26.40 | CC-SS: $14.41 | IV: HIGH | Accounts: Neville:0865
LC: $25 exp 2027-06-17 (entry $2.627/sh)
SP: $15 exp 2027-06-17 (entry $5.241/sh)
HP: $13 exp 2027-06-17 (entry $4.025/sh)
Economics
| Max Loss | $85,000 | (ND $1.40 + SW $2) x 25000 |
| Normal income ref | $44,062/mo | 95% ann ROI on ML |
| Hedge (static, never rolled) | $0/mo | HP expiry = SP LEAPS; decay ≈ $10,237/mo (info only, already in marks) |
| Unrealized P&L | $-27,125 | fortress legs from IBKR |
INCOME GOALPOSTS & VELOCITY
50% INCOME FLOOR
$22,031/mo
HEDGE COVER
$0/mo (static)
NORMAL INCOME
$44,062/mo (ATM CC, chain)
IC VELOCITY
0.8 mo to earn back $35,000
ML VELOCITY
1.9 mo to earn back $85,000
NOT a deep drawdown: a CC at CC-SS $14.41 (probe: $14.5C 16d) still earns $12,188/mo (28% of normal). Sell the normal CC at/above CC-SS; a FIGHT CC below it is not needed here.
🏦 CAMPAIGN LEDGER , realized CC income since 2026-07-13; banked cash shrinks the hole (shown as an info-only banked floor, the recommended CC-SS stays the pure recovery strike; seeded from open positions, reconciled from IBKR executions nightly)
Banked since 2026-07-13
$6
Hole (after banked)
$27,119
was $27,125 · 0% earned back
TECHNICALS (cc_timing weekly gate + daily trigger)
WEEKLYNEUTRAL · %B 54 (live) · RSI 49 · MACD bullish, hist falling
DAILYFALLING (provisional) · RSI 42 · %B 14 · hist falling (nightly)
LEVELSUpper BB (CC ceiling) $15.92 (+33%) · daily UBB $15.34 · 1-wk expected move ±$2 (chain IV)
SETUPNo tilt: engine default. (advisory; floors and picks are chain-only)
⚠ Next earnings 2026-07-29: candidates whose expiry crosses it are flagged in the spectrum; EV is unreliable across earnings.
NOT a deep drawdown. A CC at/above CC-SS $14.41 keeps this fortress whole if assigned, so there is no need to FIGHT below it. Three income options to consider, richer → safer, all at/above CC-SS. Click a card for its if-challenged roll menu.
🎯 Recommended · sell 250 × $14.50 31 Jul 2026 (16d) · richest strike still ≥80% survivalroll menu if challenged ▾
Survival (stays ≤ $14.50)
86%
Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 250 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 8 of 16); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic
Buyback gross: $1.39/sh now → $0.98 mid-life → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.26/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.72/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (250 ct) | POP / surv
of new CC |
|---|
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP.
Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened.
🛡 Safer · sell 250 × $16 17 Jul 2026 (2d) · higher survival, lighter premiumroll menu if challenged ▾
Survival (stays ≤ $16)
100%
Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 250 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 1 of 2); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic
Buyback gross: $0.79/sh now → $0.56 mid-life → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.01/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.55/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (250 ct) | POP / surv
of new CC |
|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$16 | 24 Jul 2026 | 8d left | +$0.50/sh | +$12,539 cycle +$12,789 | 68% surv 53% |
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$18 | 24 Jul 2026 | 8d left | +$0.01/sh | +$342 cycle +$592 | 80% surv 74% |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$19 | 31 Jul 2026 | 15d left | +$0.01/sh | +$213 cycle +$463 | 84% surv 81% |
| SS $26 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder |
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP.
Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened.
🛡 Safer · sell 250 × $18 24 Jul 2026 (9d) · higher survival, lighter premiumroll menu if challenged ▾
Survival (stays ≤ $18)
100%
Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 250 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 9); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic
Buyback gross: $1.52/sh now → $1.08 mid-life → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.02/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$1.06/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (250 ct) | POP / surv
of new CC |
|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$18 | 31 Jul 2026 | 12d left | +$0.45/sh | +$11,360 cycle +$11,860 | 69% surv 54% |
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$19 | 31 Jul 2026 | 12d left | +$0.03/sh | +$859 cycle +$1,359 | 74% surv 65% |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$19 | 31 Jul 2026 | 12d left | +$0.03/sh | +$859 cycle +$1,359 | 74% surv 65% |
| SS $26 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder |
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP.
Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened.
⚔ FIGHT CC options · full candidate scan (10 clear the floor), click to expand
Every eligible strike x expiry in the 2-45 DTE band (3 expiries scanned, 10 clear the income floor), each sized to the minimum contracts that clear it. Sorted by survival (safest first): the primary 🎯 is the safest; rows below trade safety for income.
Fortress delta: 0.425 (IBKR) | Recovery@SS: +$26,319 (un-capped fortress gain if stock rallies to SS) | Do-nothing @ SS: $-306
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|
| $13.50 | 2d | 17 Jul 2026 | $0.06 | 245/250 | $22,050 | $22,069 | 94% | 95% | +$17,776 | -$20,753 | 59.3% | $-21,549 (vs do-nothing $-21,243) |
| $13 | 2d | 17 Jul 2026 | $0.13 | 113/250 | $22,035 | $22,549 | 87% | 90% | +$15,626 | -$14,431 | 41.2% | $-14,963 (vs do-nothing $-14,657) |
| $13 | 9d | 24 Jul 2026 | $0.35 | 189/250 | $22,050 | $22,279 | 74% | 80% | +$7,348 | -$19,979 | 57.1% | $-20,663 (vs do-nothing $-20,357) |
| $12.50 | 2d | 17 Jul 2026 | $0.25 | 59/250 | $22,125 | $22,841 | 74% | 82% | +$12,178 | -$9,777 | 27.9% | $-10,201 (vs do-nothing $-9,895) |
| $13 | 16d | 31 Jul 2026 | $0.54 | 218/250 | $22,073 | $22,193 | 71% | 78% | +$6,181 | -$18,902 | 54.0% | $-19,644 (vs do-nothing $-19,338) |
| $12.50 | 9d | 24 Jul 2026 | $0.52 | 128/250 | $22,187 | $22,644 | 65% | 75% | +$6,365 | -$17,755 | 50.7% | $-18,317 (vs do-nothing $-18,011) |
| $12.50 | 16d | 31 Jul 2026 | $0.71 | 166/250 | $22,099 | $22,414 | 63% | 74% | +$5,150 | -$19,871 | 56.8% | $-20,510 (vs do-nothing $-20,203) |
| $12 | 16d | 31 Jul 2026 | $0.94 | 125/250 | $22,031 | $22,500 | 55% | 70% | +$4,478 | -$18,338 | 52.4% | $-18,895 (vs do-nothing $-18,588) |
| $12 | 2d | 17 Jul 2026 | $0.44 | 34/250 | $22,440 | $23,250 | 55% | 72% | +$8,255 | -$6,688 | 19.1% | $-7,062 (vs do-nothing $-6,756) |
| $12 | 9d | 24 Jul 2026 | $0.71 | 94/250 | $22,247 | $22,832 | 55% | 70% | +$4,476 | -$15,953 | 45.6% | $-16,447 (vs do-nothing $-16,141) |
Income/mo = FIGHT leg gross, DTE-prorated. Net/mo = FIGHT + conservative CC gross minus hedge cost. POP (mid) = probability stock closes at or below (strike + mid premium) at expiry, per-strike chain IV when available. Survival = CC expires fully worthless. EV/mo = premium minus expected buyback, monthly, with realized vol = IV x 85% (variance risk premium 15%). Cap give-up @ SS = recovery mortgaged on a V-bounce to SS, net of premium. Total P&L @ SS = absolute position P&L if the stock closes at SS; "vs do-nothing" = opportunity cost against holding all 250 contracts at the conservative CC.