MARA-LC25 @ $12.18 UNDERWATER $14.22 (53.9% below BE SS)
⚠ EARNINGS · SHORT EXPIRY ONLY
MARA reports 2026-07-29 (Wed), in 14 days. The recommended CC (9d) closes BEFORE earnings , that one is safe , but the richer/longer options below expire after it and would sell through the gap. Keep the tenor inside 2026-07-29.
250 contracts (25,000 sh) | BE SS: $26.40 | CC-SS: $14.05 | IV: HIGH | Accounts: Neville:0865
LC: $25 exp 2027-06-17 (entry $2.627/sh)
SP: $15 exp 2027-06-17 (entry $5.241/sh)
HP: $13 exp 2027-06-17 (entry $4.025/sh)
Economics
| Max Loss | $85,000 | (ND $1.40 + SW $2) x 25000 |
| Normal income ref | $37,978/mo | 95% ann ROI on ML |
| Hedge (static, never rolled) | $0/mo | HP expiry = SP LEAPS; decay ≈ $11,128/mo (info only, already in marks) |
| Unrealized P&L | $-20,125 | fortress legs from IBKR |
INCOME GOALPOSTS & VELOCITY
50% INCOME FLOOR
$18,989/mo
HEDGE COVER
$0/mo (static)
NORMAL INCOME
$37,978/mo (ATM CC, chain)
IC VELOCITY
0.9 mo to earn back $35,000
ML VELOCITY
2.2 mo to earn back $85,000
NOT a deep drawdown: a CC at CC-SS $14.05 (probe: $14C 16d) still earns $13,594/mo (36% of normal). Sell the normal CC at/above CC-SS; a FIGHT CC below it is not needed here.
🏦 CAMPAIGN LEDGER , realized CC income since 2026-07-13; banked cash shrinks the hole (shown as an info-only banked floor, the recommended CC-SS stays the pure recovery strike; seeded from open positions, reconciled from IBKR executions nightly)
Banked since 2026-07-13
$6
Hole (after banked)
$20,119
was $20,125 · 0% earned back
TECHNICALS (cc_timing weekly gate + daily trigger)
WEEKLYNEUTRAL · %B 56 (live) · RSI 50 · MACD bullish, hist falling
DAILYFALLING (provisional) · RSI 43 · %B 19 · hist rising (nightly)
LEVELSUpper BB (CC ceiling) $15.94 (+31%) · daily UBB $15.30 · 1-wk expected move ±$2 (chain IV)
SETUPNo tilt: engine default. (advisory; floors and picks are chain-only)
⚠ Next earnings 2026-07-29: candidates whose expiry crosses it are flagged in the spectrum; EV is unreliable across earnings.
NOT a deep drawdown. A CC at/above CC-SS $14.05 keeps this fortress whole if assigned, so there is no need to FIGHT below it. Three income options to consider, richer → safer, all at/above CC-SS. Click a card for its if-challenged roll menu.
🎯 Recommended · sell 250 × $14.50 24 Jul 2026 (9d) · richest strike still ≥80% survivalroll menu if challenged ▾
Survival (stays ≤ $14.50)
89%
Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 250 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 9); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic
Buyback gross: $1.10/sh now → $0.78 mid-life (likely $0.67–$1.09) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.14/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.64/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours
📊 Across 435 simulated challenges: the $14 strike is typically first touched on day 6 of 9, at $15 (overshoots $0.39). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (250 ct) | POP / surv
of new CC |
|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$14 | 31 Jul 2026 | 12d left | +$0.23/sh | +$5,700 cycle +$9,200 [+$4,235…+$9,043] · 98% credit | 68% surv 54% |
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$15 | 31 Jul 2026 | 12d left | +$0.06/sh | +$1,594 cycle +$5,094 [-$308…+$4,672] · 71% credit | 70% surv 58% |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$15 | 31 Jul 2026 | 12d left | +$0.06/sh | +$1,594 cycle +$5,094 [-$308…+$4,672] · 71% credit | 70% surv 58% |
| SS $26 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder |
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$15 | 31 Jul 2026 | 12d left | -$0.06/sh | -$1,597 cycle +$1,903 [-$3,860…+$947] · 30% credit | 74% surv 65% |
| budget: banked $3,500 debit $1,597 (46% used ≈ 0.6 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$1,903 cash · rolled 250 ct earn ≈ $44,504/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell |
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP.
Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened.
🛡 Safer · sell 250 × $15 17 Jul 2026 (2d) · higher survival, lighter premiumroll menu if challenged ▾
Survival (stays ≤ $15)
100%
Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 250 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 1 of 2); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic
Buyback gross: $0.70/sh now → $0.49 mid-life → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.02/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.47/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (250 ct) | POP / surv
of new CC |
|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$15 | 24 Jul 2026 | 8d left | +$0.56/sh | +$13,915 cycle +$14,415 | 70% surv 53% |
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$16 | 24 Jul 2026 | 8d left | +$0.01/sh | +$199 cycle +$699 | 79% surv 73% |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$17 | 31 Jul 2026 | 15d left | +$0.02/sh | +$543 cycle +$1,043 | 79% surv 74% |
| SS $26 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder |
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP.
Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened.
🛡 Safer · sell 250 × $15.50 17 Jul 2026 (2d) · higher survival, lighter premiumroll menu if challenged ▾
Survival (stays ≤ $15.50)
100%
Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 250 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 1 of 2); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic
Buyback gross: $0.74/sh now → $0.52 mid-life → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.01/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.51/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (250 ct) | POP / surv
of new CC |
|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$16 | 24 Jul 2026 | 8d left | +$0.59/sh | +$14,658 cycle +$14,908 | 70% surv 53% |
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$17 | 24 Jul 2026 | 8d left | +$0.03/sh | +$758 cycle +$1,008 | 79% surv 72% |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$17 | 31 Jul 2026 | 15d left | +$0.05/sh | +$1,141 cycle +$1,391 | 78% surv 73% |
| SS $26 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder |
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP.
Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened.
⚔ FIGHT CC options · full candidate scan (11 clear the floor), click to expand
Every eligible strike x expiry in the 2-45 DTE band (3 expiries scanned, 11 clear the income floor), each sized to the minimum contracts that clear it. Sorted by survival (safest first): the primary 🎯 is the safest; rows below trade safety for income.
Fortress delta: 0.428 (IBKR) | Recovery@SS: +$20,045 (un-capped fortress gain if stock rallies to SS) | Do-nothing @ SS: $170
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|
| $13.50 | 2d | 17 Jul 2026 | $0.09 | 141/250 | $19,035 | $19,239 | 94% | 95% | +$16,711 | -$6,530 | 18.7% | $-6,502 (vs do-nothing $-6,671) |
| $13 | 2d | 17 Jul 2026 | $0.19 | 67/250 | $19,095 | $19,438 | 84% | 89% | +$14,379 | -$5,783 | 16.5% | $-5,680 (vs do-nothing $-5,850) |
| $13.50 | 9d | 24 Jul 2026 | $0.30 | 190/250 | $19,000 | $19,112 | 78% | 82% | +$7,288 | -$4,810 | 13.7% | $-4,830 (vs do-nothing $-5,000) |
| $13 | 9d | 24 Jul 2026 | $0.43 | 133/250 | $19,063 | $19,283 | 70% | 78% | +$5,950 | -$8,288 | 23.7% | $-8,251 (vs do-nothing $-8,421) |
| $13 | 16d | 31 Jul 2026 | $0.61 | 167/250 | $19,101 | $19,256 | 67% | 76% | +$4,702 | -$7,400 | 21.1% | $-7,398 (vs do-nothing $-7,567) |
| $12.50 | 2d | 17 Jul 2026 | $0.36 | 36/250 | $19,440 | $19,841 | 66% | 80% | +$11,228 | -$4,295 | 12.3% | $-4,162 (vs do-nothing $-4,331) |
| $12.50 | 9d | 24 Jul 2026 | $0.60 | 95/250 | $19,000 | $19,291 | 60% | 73% | +$4,406 | -$9,055 | 25.9% | $-8,980 (vs do-nothing $-9,150) |
| $12.50 | 16d | 31 Jul 2026 | $0.74 | 137/250 | $19,009 | $19,221 | 59% | 72% | +$2,572 | -$11,140 | 31.8% | $-11,107 (vs do-nothing $-11,277) |
| $12 | 16d | 31 Jul 2026 | $0.99 | 103/250 | $19,119 | $19,395 | 51% | 68% | +$2,280 | -$10,950 | 31.3% | $-10,884 (vs do-nothing $-11,053) |
| $12 | 9d | 24 Jul 2026 | $0.92 | 62/250 | $19,013 | $19,366 | 49% | 69% | +$4,738 | -$7,025 | 20.1% | $-6,918 (vs do-nothing $-7,087) |
| $12 | 2d | 17 Jul 2026 | $0.63 | 21/250 | $19,845 | $20,274 | 43% | 72% | +$7,961 | -$2,989 | 8.5% | $-2,840 (vs do-nothing $-3,010) |
Income/mo = FIGHT leg gross, DTE-prorated. Net/mo = FIGHT + conservative CC gross minus hedge cost. POP (mid) = probability stock closes at or below (strike + mid premium) at expiry, per-strike chain IV when available. Survival = CC expires fully worthless. EV/mo = premium minus expected buyback, monthly, with realized vol = IV x 85% (variance risk premium 15%). Cap give-up @ SS = recovery mortgaged on a V-bounce to SS, net of premium. Total P&L @ SS = absolute position P&L if the stock closes at SS; "vs do-nothing" = opportunity cost against holding all 250 contracts at the conservative CC.