MARA-LC25 @ $12.21 UNDERWATER $14.19 (53.8% below BE SS)
⚠ EARNINGS · DO NOT SELL INCOME INTO IT
MARA reports 2026-07-29 (Wed), in 13 days. The recommended CC (15d) expires on/after it, so selling now holds a short call through the earnings gap, a report can blow past your strike overnight and cap you at a loss. Wait for the print, or sell only an expiry that closes BEFORE 2026-07-29.
250 contracts (25,000 sh) | BE SS: $26.40 | CC-SS: $14.66 | IV: HIGH | Accounts: Neville:0865
LC: $25 exp 2027-06-17 (entry $2.627/sh)
SP: $15 exp 2027-06-17 (entry $5.241/sh)
HP: $13 exp 2027-06-17 (entry $4.025/sh)
Economics
| Max Loss | $85,000 | (ND $1.40 + SW $2) x 25000 |
| Normal income ref | $38,500/mo | 95% ann ROI on ML |
| Hedge (static, never rolled) | $0/mo | HP expiry = SP LEAPS; decay ≈ $10,379/mo (info only, already in marks) |
| Unrealized P&L | $-27,250 | fortress legs from IBKR |
INCOME GOALPOSTS & VELOCITY
50% INCOME FLOOR
$19,250/mo
HEDGE COVER
$0/mo (static)
NORMAL INCOME
$38,500/mo (ATM CC, chain)
IC VELOCITY
0.9 mo to earn back $35,000
ML VELOCITY
2.2 mo to earn back $85,000
NOT a deep drawdown: a CC at CC-SS $14.66 (probe: $14.5C 15d) still earns $11,000/mo (29% of normal). Sell the normal CC at/above CC-SS; a FIGHT CC below it is not needed here.
🏦 CAMPAIGN LEDGER , realized CC income since 2026-07-13; banked cash shrinks the hole (shown as an info-only banked floor, the recommended CC-SS stays the pure recovery strike; seeded from open positions, reconciled from IBKR executions nightly)
Banked since 2026-07-13
$6
Hole (after banked)
$27,244
was $27,250 · 0% earned back
TECHNICALS (cc_timing weekly gate + daily trigger)
WEEKLYNEUTRAL · %B 57 (live) · RSI 50 · MACD bullish, hist falling
DAILYFALLING (provisional) · RSI 44 · %B 23 · hist rising (nightly)
LEVELSUpper BB (CC ceiling) $15.93 (+30%) · daily UBB $15.19 · 1-wk expected move ±$1 (chain IV)
SETUPNo tilt: engine default. (advisory; floors and picks are chain-only)
⚠ Next earnings 2026-07-29: candidates whose expiry crosses it are flagged in the spectrum; EV is unreliable across earnings.
NOT a deep drawdown. A CC at/above CC-SS $14.66 keeps this fortress whole if assigned, so there is no need to FIGHT below it. Three income options to consider, richer → safer, all at/above CC-SS. Click a card for its if-challenged roll menu.
🎯 Recommended · sell 250 × $15 31 Jul 2026 (15d) · richest strike still ≥80% survivalroll menu if challenged ▾
Survival (stays ≤ $15)
89%
Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 250 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 7 of 15); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic
Buyback gross: $1.34/sh now → $0.95 mid-life → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.16/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.79/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (250 ct) | POP / surv
of new CC |
|---|
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP.
Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened.
🛡 Safer · sell 250 × $15.50 31 Jul 2026 (15d) · higher survival, lighter premiumroll menu if challenged ▾
Survival (stays ≤ $15.50)
91%
Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 250 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 7 of 15); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic
Buyback gross: $1.41/sh now → $1.00 mid-life → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.12/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.88/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (250 ct) | POP / surv
of new CC |
|---|
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP.
Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened.
🛡 Safer · sell 250 × $22 31 Jul 2026 (15d) · higher survival, lighter premiumroll menu if challenged ▾
Survival (stays ≤ $22)
100%
Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 250 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 7 of 15); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic
Buyback gross: $2.53/sh now → $1.79 mid-life → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.02/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$1.77/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (250 ct) | POP / surv
of new CC |
|---|
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP.
Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened.
⚔ FIGHT CC options · full candidate scan (7 clear the floor), click to expand
Every eligible strike x expiry in the 4-45 DTE band (2 expiries scanned, 7 clear the income floor), each sized to the minimum contracts that clear it. Sorted by survival (safest first): the primary 🎯 is the safest; rows below trade safety for income.
Fortress delta: 0.429 (IBKR) | Recovery@SS: +$26,248 (un-capped fortress gain if stock rallies to SS) | Do-nothing @ SS: $-502
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|
| $13.50 | 8d | 24 Jul 2026 | $0.24 | 214/250 | $19,260 | $19,404 | 80% | 84% | +$7,958 | -$19,632 | 56.1% | $-20,562 (vs do-nothing $-20,060) |
| $13 | 8d | 24 Jul 2026 | $0.37 | 139/250 | $19,286 | $19,730 | 71% | 78% | +$6,342 | -$17,895 | 51.1% | $-18,674 (vs do-nothing $-18,173) |
| $13 | 15d | 31 Jul 2026 | $0.57 | 169/250 | $19,266 | $19,590 | 67% | 76% | +$4,950 | -$18,377 | 52.5% | $-19,217 (vs do-nothing $-18,715) |
| $12.50 | 8d | 24 Jul 2026 | $0.54 | 96/250 | $19,440 | $20,056 | 60% | 72% | +$4,582 | -$15,527 | 44.4% | $-16,221 (vs do-nothing $-15,719) |
| $12.50 | 15d | 31 Jul 2026 | $0.74 | 131/250 | $19,388 | $19,864 | 59% | 72% | +$3,551 | -$18,568 | 53.1% | $-19,332 (vs do-nothing $-18,830) |
| $12 | 15d | 31 Jul 2026 | $0.98 | 99/250 | $19,404 | $20,008 | 50% | 67% | +$2,746 | -$16,606 | 47.4% | $-17,306 (vs do-nothing $-16,804) |
| $12 | 8d | 24 Jul 2026 | $0.77 | 67/250 | $19,346 | $20,078 | 48% | 66% | +$2,717 | -$12,646 | 36.1% | $-13,281 (vs do-nothing $-12,780) |
Income/mo = FIGHT leg gross, DTE-prorated. Net/mo = FIGHT + conservative CC gross minus hedge cost. POP (mid) = probability stock closes at or below (strike + mid premium) at expiry, per-strike chain IV when available. Survival = CC expires fully worthless. EV/mo = premium minus expected buyback, monthly, with realized vol = IV x 85% (variance risk premium 15%). Cap give-up @ SS = recovery mortgaged on a V-bounce to SS, net of premium. Total P&L @ SS = absolute position P&L if the stock closes at SS; "vs do-nothing" = opportunity cost against holding all 250 contracts at the conservative CC.