MARA-LC25 @ $12.09 UNDERWATER $14.31 (54.2% below BE SS)
⚠ EARNINGS · DO NOT SELL INCOME INTO IT
MARA reports 2026-07-29 (Wed), in 13 days. The recommended CC (22d) expires on/after it, so selling now holds a short call through the earnings gap, a report can blow past your strike overnight and cap you at a loss. Wait for the print, or sell only an expiry that closes BEFORE 2026-07-29.
250 contracts (25,000 sh) | BE SS: $26.40 | CC-SS: $14.45 | IV: HIGH | Accounts: Neville:0865
LC: $25 exp 2027-06-17 (entry $2.627/sh)
SP: $15 exp 2027-06-17 (entry $5.241/sh)
HP: $13 exp 2027-06-17 (entry $4.025/sh)
Economics
| Max Loss | $85,000 | (ND $1.40 + SW $2) x 25000 |
| Normal income ref | $47,000/mo | 95% ann ROI on ML |
| Hedge (static, never rolled) | $0/mo | HP expiry = SP LEAPS; decay ≈ $10,379/mo (info only, already in marks) |
| Unrealized P&L | $-26,250 | fortress legs from IBKR |
INCOME GOALPOSTS & VELOCITY
50% INCOME FLOOR
$23,500/mo
HEDGE COVER
$0/mo (static)
NORMAL INCOME
$47,000/mo (ATM CC, chain)
IC VELOCITY
0.7 mo to earn back $35,000
ML VELOCITY
1.8 mo to earn back $85,000
NOT a deep drawdown: a CC at CC-SS $14.45 (probe: $14.5C 15d) still earns $12,000/mo (26% of normal). Sell the normal CC at/above CC-SS; a FIGHT CC below it is not needed here.
🏦 CAMPAIGN LEDGER , realized CC income since 2026-07-13; banked cash shrinks the hole (shown as an info-only banked floor, the recommended CC-SS stays the pure recovery strike; seeded from open positions, reconciled from IBKR executions nightly)
Banked since 2026-07-13
$6
Hole (after banked)
$26,244
was $26,250 · 0% earned back
TECHNICALS (cc_timing weekly gate + daily trigger)
WEEKLYNEUTRAL · %B 55 (live) · RSI 50 · MACD bullish, hist falling
DAILYFALLING (provisional) · RSI 43 · %B 19 · hist rising (nightly)
LEVELSUpper BB (CC ceiling) $15.95 (+32%) · daily UBB $15.19 · 1-wk expected move ±$1 (chain IV)
SETUPNo tilt: engine default. (advisory; floors and picks are chain-only)
⚠ Next earnings 2026-07-29: candidates whose expiry crosses it are flagged in the spectrum; EV is unreliable across earnings.
NOT a deep drawdown. A CC at/above CC-SS $14.45 keeps this fortress whole if assigned, so there is no need to FIGHT below it. Three income options to consider, richer → safer, all at/above CC-SS. Click a card for its if-challenged roll menu.
🎯 Recommended · sell 250 × $14.50 7 Aug 2026 (22d) · richest strike still ≥80% survivalroll menu if challenged ▾
Survival (stays ≤ $14.50)
81%
Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 250 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 11 of 22); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic
Buyback gross: $1.82/sh now → $1.29 mid-life → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.42/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.87/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (250 ct) | POP / surv
of new CC |
|---|
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP.
Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened.
🛡 Safer · sell 250 × $16 7 Aug 2026 (22d) · higher survival, lighter premiumroll menu if challenged ▾
Survival (stays ≤ $16)
90%
Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 250 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 11 of 22); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic
Buyback gross: $2.12/sh now → $1.50 mid-life → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.16/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$1.34/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (250 ct) | POP / surv
of new CC |
|---|
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP.
Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened.
🛡 Safer · sell 250 × $22 31 Jul 2026 (15d) · higher survival, lighter premiumroll menu if challenged ▾
Survival (stays ≤ $22)
100%
Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 250 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 7 of 15); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic
Buyback gross: $2.78/sh now → $1.97 mid-life → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.02/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$1.95/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (250 ct) | POP / surv
of new CC |
|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$22 | 7 Aug 2026 | 14d left | +$0.67/sh | +$16,683 cycle +$17,183 | 71% surv 55% |
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$23 | 7 Aug 2026 | 14d left | +$0.27/sh | +$6,687 cycle +$7,187 | 74% surv 61% |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$23 | 7 Aug 2026 | 14d left | +$0.27/sh | +$6,687 cycle +$7,187 | 74% surv 61% |
| SS $26 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder |
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP.
Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened.
⚔ FIGHT CC options · full candidate scan (10 clear the floor), click to expand
Every eligible strike x expiry in the 4-45 DTE band (3 expiries scanned, 10 clear the income floor), each sized to the minimum contracts that clear it. Sorted by survival (safest first): the primary 🎯 is the safest; rows below trade safety for income.
Fortress delta: 0.900 (fallback) | Recovery@SS: +$53,074 (un-capped fortress gain if stock rallies to SS) | Do-nothing @ SS: $27,324
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|
| $13.50 | 8d | 24 Jul 2026 | $0.26 | 242/250 | $23,595 | $23,627 | 82% | 85% | +$12,304 | -$16,670 | 47.6% | $10,170 (vs do-nothing $-17,154) |
| $13 | 8d | 24 Jul 2026 | $0.40 | 157/250 | $23,550 | $23,922 | 73% | 80% | +$10,632 | -$16,467 | 47.0% | $10,543 (vs do-nothing $-16,781) |
| $13 | 15d | 31 Jul 2026 | $0.61 | 193/250 | $23,546 | $23,774 | 69% | 78% | +$8,225 | -$16,190 | 46.3% | $10,748 (vs do-nothing $-16,576) |
| $13 | 22d | 7 Aug 2026 | $0.85 | 203/250 | $23,530 | $23,718 | 67% | 76% | +$7,327 | -$12,157 | 34.7% | $14,761 (vs do-nothing $-12,563) |
| $12.50 | 8d | 24 Jul 2026 | $0.59 | 107/250 | $23,674 | $24,246 | 63% | 75% | +$9,014 | -$14,540 | 41.5% | $12,571 (vs do-nothing $-14,754) |
| $12.50 | 15d | 31 Jul 2026 | $0.80 | 147/250 | $23,520 | $23,932 | 61% | 74% | +$7,149 | -$16,888 | 48.3% | $10,142 (vs do-nothing $-17,182) |
| $12.50 | 22d | 7 Aug 2026 | $1.05 | 165/250 | $23,625 | $23,965 | 60% | 74% | +$6,545 | -$14,831 | 42.4% | $12,163 (vs do-nothing $-15,161) |
| $12 | 22d | 7 Aug 2026 | $1.28 | 135/250 | $23,564 | $24,024 | 53% | 71% | +$5,628 | -$15,780 | 45.1% | $11,275 (vs do-nothing $-16,050) |
| $12 | 15d | 31 Jul 2026 | $1.03 | 115/250 | $23,690 | $24,230 | 52% | 70% | +$5,647 | -$16,317 | 46.6% | $10,777 (vs do-nothing $-16,547) |
| $12 | 8d | 24 Jul 2026 | $0.82 | 77/250 | $23,678 | $24,370 | 50% | 70% | +$6,813 | -$12,542 | 35.8% | $14,628 (vs do-nothing $-12,696) |
Income/mo = FIGHT leg gross, DTE-prorated. Net/mo = FIGHT + conservative CC gross minus hedge cost. POP (mid) = probability stock closes at or below (strike + mid premium) at expiry, per-strike chain IV when available. Survival = CC expires fully worthless. EV/mo = premium minus expected buyback, monthly, with realized vol = IV x 85% (variance risk premium 15%). Cap give-up @ SS = recovery mortgaged on a V-bounce to SS, net of premium. Total P&L @ SS = absolute position P&L if the stock closes at SS; "vs do-nothing" = opportunity cost against holding all 250 contracts at the conservative CC.