250 contracts (25,000 sh) | BE SS: $26.40 | CC-SS: $15.45 | IV: HIGH | Accounts: Neville:0865
| Max Loss | $85,000 | (ND $1.40 + SW $2) x 25000 |
| Normal income ref | $44,000/mo | 95% ann ROI on ML |
| Hedge (static, never rolled) | $0/mo | HP expiry = SP LEAPS; decay ≈ $10,268/mo (info only, already in marks) |
| Unrealized P&L | $-39,125 | fortress legs from IBKR |
Each Friday gets its own recommended pick and full income ladder (safest strike per income rung, sized across your 250 contracts). The master ranks the two by E[net]/mo to pick one grand pick; both are shown here so you can choose the tenor that fits your roll cadence.
| Track | Expiry | Sell | Survival | Income/mo | E[net]/mo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NEXT FRIDAY 🏆 | 24 Jul 2026 · 8d | 168 × $13 | 74% | $22,050 | $5,569 |
| Rung | Sell | Expiry | DTE | OTM | Survival | Touch odds | Per cycle | Income/mo | Δ vs pick | Cap give-up | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| ▸ | 🛡 safe yield | 250 × $14.50 | 24 Jul | 8d | 20.5% | 92% | 17% | $1,750 | $6,562 | -$15,488 | $21,991 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 250 × $14.50 20.5% OTM over spot $12.03 24 Jul 2026 (8d, $0.11 mid) = $1,750 credit for the 8d cycle → $6,562/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $14.50) 92% Breach risk 8% POP (stays ≤ $14.61) 92% EV / mo +$2,585 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 1.5 mo [0.6-3.1] median, 0.1 mo SLOWER than no FIGHT (1.5 mo): roll costs eat the credits at this rung · 66% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 58% without) · ~1.9 challenges expected · median CC cash $15,349 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 11% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$17,024 Free roll-up +$0/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $15 @ 71% POP 61% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 250 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 8); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $1.06/sh now → $0.75 mid-life (likely $0.56–$1.00) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.07/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.68/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 339 simulated challenges: the $14 strike is typically first touched on day 6 of 8, at $15 (overshoots $0.39). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $14.50 is $1 below CC-SS $15.45: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.02/sh (~25% of the $0.07 collected) or spot ≥ $14.61 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $14)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $15.19 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.42 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $15.45, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-39,125 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$36,334 − CC assignment net of premium (250 × $14.50): -$21,991 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-24,782 (+$14,343 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-2,291 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-22,491, the opportunity cost of earning $6,562/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $15.95 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$34,500, position total $-31,975 (+$7,150 vs today) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 33% normal ← lean | 177 × $13.50 | 24 Jul | 8d | 12.2% | 82% | 38% | $3,894 | $14,602 | -$7,448 | $30,615 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 177 × $13.50 12.2% OTM over spot $12.03 24 Jul 2026 (8d, $0.25 mid) = $3,894 credit for the 8d cycle → $14,602/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $13.50) 82% Breach risk 18% POP (stays ≤ $13.75) 85% EV / mo +$6,053 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 1.2 mo [0.6-2.9] median, 0.1 mo faster than no FIGHT (1.3 mo) · 78% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 66% without) · ~4.0 challenges expected · median CC cash $20,197 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 29% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$7,981 Free roll-up none Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $14 @ 76% POP 69% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 177 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 8); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $0.95/sh now → $0.67 mid-life (likely $0.66–$1.06) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.22/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.45/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 865 simulated challenges: the $14 strike is typically first touched on day 5 of 8, at $14 (overshoots $0.39). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $13.50 is $2 below CC-SS $15.45: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.06/sh (~25% of the $0.22 collected) or spot ≥ $13.75 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $14)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $15.19 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.42 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $15.45, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-39,125 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$36,334 − CC assignment net of premium (177 × $13.50): -$30,615 + Conservative CC premium (73 × $20): +$146 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-33,260 (+$5,865 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-2,291 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-30,969, the opportunity cost of earning $14,602/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $15.95 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$39,471, position total $-36,800 (+$2,325 vs today) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🎯 50% normal | 168 × $13 | 24 Jul | 8d | 8.1% | 74% | 41% | $5,880 | $22,050 | — | $35,274 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 168 × $13 8.1% OTM over spot $12.03 24 Jul 2026 (8d, $0.35 mid) = $5,880 credit for the 8d cycle → $22,050/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $13) 74% Breach risk 26% POP (stays ≤ $13.36) 80% EV / mo +$8,162 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 1.4 mo [0.6-3.0] median, 0.1 mo faster than no FIGHT (1.5 mo) · 78% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 56% without) · ~6.4 challenges expected · median CC cash $27,888 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 41% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$4,744 Free roll-up none Safest escape (by 7 Aug 2026) $15 @ 81% POP 77% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 168 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 8); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $0.89/sh now → $0.63 mid-life (likely $0.72–$1.06) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.35/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.28/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 1,241 simulated challenges: the $13 strike is typically first touched on day 4 of 8, at $13 (overshoots $0.37). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $13 is $2 below CC-SS $15.45: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.09/sh (~25% of the $0.35 collected) or spot ≥ $13.36 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $13)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $15.19 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.42 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $15.45, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-39,125 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$36,334 − CC assignment net of premium (168 × $13): -$35,274 + Conservative CC premium (82 × $20): +$164 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-37,901 (+$1,224 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-2,291 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-35,610, the opportunity cost of earning $22,050/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $15.95 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$43,680, position total $-40,991 ($-1,866 vs today) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 100% normal | 240 × $12.50 | 24 Jul | 8d | 3.9% | 64% | 76% | $11,760 | $44,100 | +$22,050 | $59,032 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 240 × $12.50 3.9% OTM over spot $12.03 24 Jul 2026 (8d, $0.52 mid) = $11,760 credit for the 8d cycle → $44,100/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $12.50) 64% Breach risk 36% POP (stays ≤ $13.02) 74% EV / mo +$11,365 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 1.0 mo [0.5-2.0] median, 0.6 mo faster than no FIGHT (1.7 mo) · 89% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 60% without) · ~7.4 challenges expected · median CC cash $32,157 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 64% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$2,519 Free roll-up none Safest escape (by 7 Aug 2026) $16 @ 92% POP 91% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 240 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 8); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $0.84/sh now → $0.59 mid-life (likely $0.77–$1.10) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.49/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.10/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 1,907 simulated challenges: the $12 strike is typically first touched on day 3 of 8, at $13 (overshoots $0.38). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $12.50 is $3 below CC-SS $15.45: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.12/sh (~25% of the $0.49 collected) or spot ≥ $13.02 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $12)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $15.19 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.42 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $15.45, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-39,125 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$36,334 − CC assignment net of premium (240 × $12.50): -$59,032 + Conservative CC premium (10 × $20): +$20 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-61,803 ($-22,678 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-2,291 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-59,512, the opportunity cost of earning $44,100/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $15.95 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$71,040, position total $-68,495 ($-29,370 vs today) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Every eligible strike x expiry in the 4-45 DTE band (3 expiries scanned, 8 clear the income floor), each sized to the minimum contracts that clear it. Sorted by survival (safest first): the primary 🎯 is the safest; rows below trade safety for income.
Fortress delta: 0.425 (IBKR) | Recovery@SS: +$36,334 (un-capped fortress gain if stock rallies to SS) | Do-nothing @ SS: $-2,291
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $13 | 8d | 24 Jul 2026 | $0.35 | 168/250 | $22,050 | $22,378 | 74% | 80% | +$8,162 | -$35,274 | 100.8% | $-37,901 (vs do-nothing $-35,610) |
| $13 | 15d | 31 Jul 2026 | $0.47 | 235/250 | $22,090 | $22,150 | 70% | 77% | +$4,797 | -$46,522 | 132.9% | $-49,283 (vs do-nothing $-46,992) |
| $12.50 | 8d | 24 Jul 2026 | $0.49 | 120/250 | $22,050 | $22,570 | 64% | 74% | +$5,683 | -$29,516 | 84.3% | $-32,047 (vs do-nothing $-29,756) |
| $12.50 | 15d | 31 Jul 2026 | $0.63 | 175/250 | $22,050 | $22,350 | 62% | 74% | +$3,338 | -$40,594 | 116.0% | $-43,235 (vs do-nothing $-40,944) |
| $12.50 | 22d | 7 Aug 2026 | $0.65 | 249/250 | $22,070 | $22,074 | 61% | 73% | $-2,748 | -$57,261 | 163.6% | $-60,050 (vs do-nothing $-57,759) |
| $12 | 22d | 7 Aug 2026 | $0.99 | 163/250 | $22,005 | $22,353 | 54% | 70% | +$1,078 | -$40,092 | 114.5% | $-42,710 (vs do-nothing $-40,418) |
| $12 | 15d | 31 Jul 2026 | $0.91 | 121/250 | $22,022 | $22,538 | 53% | 70% | +$3,723 | -$30,730 | 87.8% | $-33,263 (vs do-nothing $-30,972) |
| $12 | 8d | 24 Jul 2026 | $0.70 | 84/250 | $22,050 | $22,714 | 52% | 69% | +$4,042 | -$23,097 | 66.0% | $-25,556 (vs do-nothing $-23,265) |
Income/mo = FIGHT leg gross, DTE-prorated. Net/mo = FIGHT + conservative CC gross minus hedge cost. POP (mid) = probability stock closes at or below (strike + mid premium) at expiry, per-strike chain IV when available. Survival = CC expires fully worthless. EV/mo = premium minus expected buyback, monthly, with realized vol = IV x 85% (variance risk premium 15%). Cap give-up @ SS = recovery mortgaged on a V-bounce to SS, net of premium. Total P&L @ SS = absolute position P&L if the stock closes at SS; "vs do-nothing" = opportunity cost against holding all 250 contracts at the conservative CC.