MARA-LC25 @ $11.48 UNDERWATER $14.91 (56.5% below BE SS)
⚠ EARNINGS · DO NOT SELL INCOME INTO IT
MARA reports 2026-07-29 (Wed), in 12 days. The recommended CC (28d) expires on/after it, so selling now holds a short call through the earnings gap, a report can blow past your strike overnight and cap you at a loss. Wait for the print, or sell only an expiry that closes BEFORE 2026-07-29.
250 contracts (25,000 sh) | BE SS: $26.40 | CC-SS: $14.17 | IV: HIGH | Accounts: Neville:0865
LC: $25 exp 2027-06-17 (entry $2.627/sh)
SP: $15 exp 2027-06-17 (entry $5.241/sh)
HP: $13 exp 2027-06-17 (entry $4.025/sh)
Economics
| Max Loss | $85,000 | (ND $1.40 + SW $2) x 25000 |
| Normal income ref | $42,857/mo | 95% ann ROI on ML |
| Hedge (static, never rolled) | $0/mo | HP expiry = SP LEAPS; decay ≈ $6,569/mo (info only, already in marks) |
| Unrealized P&L | $-29,250 | fortress legs from IBKR |
INCOME GOALPOSTS & VELOCITY
50% INCOME FLOOR
$21,429/mo
HEDGE COVER
$0/mo (static)
NORMAL INCOME
$42,857/mo (ATM CC, chain)
IC VELOCITY
0.8 mo to earn back $35,000
ML VELOCITY
2.0 mo to earn back $85,000
NOT a deep drawdown: a CC at CC-SS $14.17 (probe: $14C 14d) still earns $9,643/mo (22% of normal). Sell the normal CC at/above CC-SS; a FIGHT CC below it is not needed here.
🏦 CAMPAIGN LEDGER , realized CC income since 2026-07-13; banked cash shrinks the hole (shown as an info-only banked floor, the recommended CC-SS stays the pure recovery strike; seeded from open positions, reconciled from IBKR executions nightly)
Banked since 2026-07-13
$6
Hole (after banked)
$29,244
was $29,250 · 0% earned back
TECHNICALS (cc_timing weekly gate + daily trigger)
WEEKLYNEUTRAL · %B 49 (live) · RSI 47 · MACD bullish, hist falling
DAILYFALLING (provisional) · RSI 40 · %B 12 · hist falling (nightly)
LEVELSUpper BB (CC ceiling) $15.89 (+38%) · daily UBB $15.25 · 1-wk expected move ±$1 (chain IV)
SETUPNo tilt: engine default. (advisory; floors and picks are chain-only)
⚠ Next earnings 2026-07-29: candidates whose expiry crosses it are flagged in the spectrum; EV is unreliable across earnings.
NOT a deep drawdown. A CC at/above CC-SS $14.17 keeps this fortress whole if assigned, so there is no need to FIGHT below it. Three income options to consider, richer → safer, all at/above CC-SS. Click a card for its if-challenged roll menu.
🎯 Recommended · sell 250 × $14.50 14 Aug 2026 (28d) · richest strike still ≥80% survivalroll menu if challenged ▾
Survival (stays ≤ $14.50)
84%
Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 250 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 14 of 28); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic
Buyback gross: $1.89/sh now → $1.34 mid-life → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.37/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.97/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (250 ct) | POP / surv
of new CC |
|---|
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP.
Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened.
🛡 Safer · sell 250 × $15 7 Aug 2026 (21d) · higher survival, lighter premiumroll menu if challenged ▾
Survival (stays ≤ $15)
90%
Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 250 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 10 of 21); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic
Buyback gross: $1.73/sh now → $1.22 mid-life (likely $0.95–$1.54) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.20/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$1.02/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours
📊 Across 505 simulated challenges: the $15 strike is typically first touched on day 13 of 21, at $15 (overshoots $0.43). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (250 ct) | POP / surv
of new CC |
|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$15 | 14 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$0.18/sh | +$4,502 cycle +$9,502 [+$3,387…+$8,522] · 99% credit | 69% surv 55% |
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$16 | 14 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$0.04/sh | +$971 cycle +$5,971 [-$310…+$3,965] · 70% credit | 72% surv 60% |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$16 | 14 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$0.04/sh | +$971 cycle +$5,971 [-$310…+$3,965] · 70% credit | 72% surv 60% |
| SS $26 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder |
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$16 | 14 Aug 2026 | 18d left | -$0.16/sh | -$4,077 cycle +$923 [-$5,867…-$1,194] · 18% credit | 74% surv 65% |
| budget: banked $5,000 debit $4,077 (82% used ≈ 2.5 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$923 cash · rolled 250 ct earn ≈ $44,122/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell |
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP.
Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened.
🛡 Safer · sell 250 × $18.50 24 Jul 2026 (7d) · higher survival, lighter premiumroll menu if challenged ▾
Survival (stays ≤ $18.50)
100%
Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 250 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 7); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic
Buyback gross: $1.36/sh now → $0.96 mid-life → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.01/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.95/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (250 ct) | POP / surv
of new CC |
|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$18 | 31 Jul 2026 | 10d left | +$0.53/sh | +$13,195 cycle +$13,445 | 69% surv 54% |
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$20 | 31 Jul 2026 | 10d left | +$0.02/sh | +$625 cycle +$875 | 77% surv 69% |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$23 | 14 Aug 2026 | 24d left | +$0.12/sh | +$3,097 cycle +$3,347 | 81% surv 77% |
| SS $26 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder |
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP.
Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened.
⚔ FIGHT CC options · full candidate scan (12 clear the floor), click to expand
Every eligible strike x expiry in the 4-45 DTE band (4 expiries scanned, 12 clear the income floor), each sized to the minimum contracts that clear it. Sorted by survival (safest first): the primary 🎯 is the safest; rows below trade safety for income.
Fortress delta: 0.409 (IBKR) | Recovery@SS: +$27,477 (un-capped fortress gain if stock rallies to SS) | Do-nothing @ SS: $-1,523
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|
| $12.50 | 7d | 24 Jul 2026 | $0.26 | 193/250 | $21,506 | $21,628 | 76% | 81% | +$7,424 | -$27,256 | 77.9% | $-28,972 (vs do-nothing $-27,449) |
| $12.50 | 14d | 31 Jul 2026 | $0.45 | 223/250 | $21,504 | $21,561 | 71% | 78% | +$6,054 | -$27,256 | 77.9% | $-29,002 (vs do-nothing $-27,479) |
| $12.50 | 21d | 7 Aug 2026 | $0.69 | 218/250 | $21,489 | $21,557 | 69% | 77% | +$5,876 | -$21,413 | 61.2% | $-23,154 (vs do-nothing $-21,631) |
| $12.50 | 28d | 14 Aug 2026 | $0.83 | 241/250 | $21,432 | $21,451 | 67% | 76% | +$4,878 | -$20,298 | 58.0% | $-22,062 (vs do-nothing $-20,539) |
| $12 | 7d | 24 Jul 2026 | $0.40 | 125/250 | $21,429 | $21,696 | 66% | 75% | +$5,249 | -$22,153 | 63.3% | $-23,801 (vs do-nothing $-22,278) |
| $12 | 14d | 31 Jul 2026 | $0.61 | 164/250 | $21,437 | $21,621 | 63% | 74% | +$4,661 | -$25,621 | 73.2% | $-27,308 (vs do-nothing $-25,785) |
| $12 | 21d | 7 Aug 2026 | $0.78 | 193/250 | $21,506 | $21,628 | 62% | 73% | +$3,165 | -$26,870 | 76.8% | $-28,586 (vs do-nothing $-27,063) |
| $12 | 28d | 14 Aug 2026 | $1.02 | 197/250 | $21,529 | $21,643 | 62% | 73% | +$4,354 | -$22,699 | 64.9% | $-24,419 (vs do-nothing $-22,896) |
| $11.50 | 28d | 14 Aug 2026 | $1.17 | 171/250 | $21,436 | $21,605 | 55% | 70% | +$2,709 | -$25,688 | 73.4% | $-27,382 (vs do-nothing $-25,859) |
| $11.50 | 21d | 7 Aug 2026 | $1.00 | 150/250 | $21,429 | $21,643 | 55% | 70% | +$2,751 | -$25,084 | 71.7% | $-26,757 (vs do-nothing $-25,234) |
| $11.50 | 14d | 31 Jul 2026 | $0.80 | 125/250 | $21,429 | $21,696 | 54% | 69% | +$3,018 | -$23,403 | 66.9% | $-25,051 (vs do-nothing $-23,528) |
| $11.50 | 7d | 24 Jul 2026 | $0.61 | 82/250 | $21,437 | $21,797 | 53% | 68% | +$3,832 | -$16,910 | 48.3% | $-18,515 (vs do-nothing $-16,992) |
Income/mo = FIGHT leg gross, DTE-prorated. Net/mo = FIGHT + conservative CC gross minus hedge cost. POP (mid) = probability stock closes at or below (strike + mid premium) at expiry, per-strike chain IV when available. Survival = CC expires fully worthless. EV/mo = premium minus expected buyback, monthly, with realized vol = IV x 85% (variance risk premium 15%). Cap give-up @ SS = recovery mortgaged on a V-bounce to SS, net of premium. Total P&L @ SS = absolute position P&L if the stock closes at SS; "vs do-nothing" = opportunity cost against holding all 250 contracts at the conservative CC.