250 contracts (25,000 sh) | BE SS: $26.40 | CC-SS: $14.57 | IV: HIGH | Accounts: Neville:0865
| Max Loss | $85,000 | (ND $1.40 + SW $2) x 25000 |
| Normal income ref | $44,464/mo | 95% ann ROI on ML |
| Hedge (static, never rolled) | $0/mo | HP expiry = SP LEAPS; decay ≈ $6,989/mo (info only, already in marks) |
| Unrealized P&L | $-33,750 | fortress legs from IBKR |
Each Friday gets its own recommended pick and full income ladder (safest strike per income rung, sized across your 250 contracts). The master ranks the two by E[net]/mo to pick one grand pick; both are shown here so you can choose the tenor that fits your roll cadence.
| Track | Expiry | Sell | Survival | Income/mo | E[net]/mo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NEXT FRIDAY 🏆 | 24 Jul 2026 · 7d | 200 × $12.50 | 77% | $22,286 | $6,044 |
| Rung | Sell | Expiry | DTE | OTM | Survival | Touch odds | FIGHT edge | Per cycle | Income/mo | Δ vs pick | Cap give-up | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| ▸ | 🛡 safe yield | 250 × $13.50 | 24 Jul | 7d | 17.5% | 90% | 20% | +15pp | $2,500 | $10,714 | -$11,571 | $24,190 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 250 × $13.50 17.5% OTM over spot $11.49 24 Jul 2026 (7d, $0.11 mid) = $2,500 credit for the 7d cycle → $10,714/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $13.50) 90% Breach risk 10% POP (stays ≤ $13.61) 91% EV / mo +$5,918 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +15pp 77% whole by 9mo vs 62% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~0.7/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $7,500/mo median; plan ~$5,100/mo after 68% keep · $16,626 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~1.2 mo [0.6-2.8], measured ONLY among the 77% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 14% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$12,433 Free roll-up +$1/wk Safest escape (by 14 Aug 2026) $17 @ 84% POP 81% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 250 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 7); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $0.84/sh now → $0.60 mid-life (likely $0.52–$0.90) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.10/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.50/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 417 simulated challenges: the $14 strike is typically first touched on day 5 of 7, at $14 (overshoots $0.38). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $13.50 is $1 below CC-SS $14.57: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.03/sh (~25% of the $0.10 collected) or spot ≥ $13.61 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $14)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $15.24 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.41 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $14.57, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-33,750 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$31,544 − CC assignment net of premium (250 × $13.50): -$24,190 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-26,395 (+$7,355 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-1,956 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-24,440, the opportunity cost of earning $10,714/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $15.90 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$57,500, position total $-46,049 ($-12,299 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 33% normal ← lean | 214 × $13 | 24 Jul | 7d | 13.1% | 85% | 31% | +16pp | $3,424 | $14,674 | -$7,611 | $30,122 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 214 × $13 13.1% OTM over spot $11.49 24 Jul 2026 (7d, $0.17 mid) = $3,424 credit for the 7d cycle → $14,674/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $13) 85% Breach risk 15% POP (stays ≤ $13.17) 87% EV / mo +$6,920 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +16pp 78% whole by 9mo vs 62% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~1.2/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $9,235/mo median; plan ~$6,280/mo after 68% keep · $18,968 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~1.2 mo [0.6-2.8], measured ONLY among the 78% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 22% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$8,615 Free roll-up +$1/wk Safest escape (by 14 Aug 2026) $16 @ 84% POP 82% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 214 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 7); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $0.80/sh now → $0.56 mid-life (likely $0.53–$0.87) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.16/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.40/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 653 simulated challenges: the $13 strike is typically first touched on day 4 of 7, at $13 (overshoots $0.35). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $13 is $2 below CC-SS $14.57: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.04/sh (~25% of the $0.16 collected) or spot ≥ $13.17 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $13)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $15.24 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.41 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $14.57, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-33,750 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$31,544 − CC assignment net of premium (214 × $13): -$30,122 + Conservative CC premium (36 × $22): +$36 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-32,292 (+$1,458 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-1,956 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-30,336, the opportunity cost of earning $14,674/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $15.90 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$58,636, position total $-47,149 ($-13,399 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🎯 50% normal | 200 × $12.50 | 24 Jul | 7d | 8.8% | 77% | 36% | +22pp | $5,200 | $22,286 | — | $36,152 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 200 × $12.50 8.8% OTM over spot $11.49 24 Jul 2026 (7d, $0.27 mid) = $5,200 credit for the 7d cycle → $22,286/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $12.50) 77% Breach risk 23% POP (stays ≤ $12.77) 82% EV / mo +$8,748 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +22pp 84% whole by 9mo vs 62% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~1.7/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $12,916/mo median; plan ~$8,783/mo after 68% keep · $22,134 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~1.1 mo [0.6-2.5], measured ONLY among the 84% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 36% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$5,376 Free roll-up +$1/wk Safest escape (by 7 Aug 2026) $16 @ 88% POP 86% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 200 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 7); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $0.75/sh now → $0.53 mid-life (likely $0.58–$0.90) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.26/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.27/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 1,075 simulated challenges: the $12 strike is typically first touched on day 4 of 7, at $13 (overshoots $0.35). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $12.50 is $2 below CC-SS $14.57: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.07/sh (~25% of the $0.26 collected) or spot ≥ $12.77 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $12)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $15.24 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.41 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $14.57, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-33,750 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$31,544 − CC assignment net of premium (200 × $12.50): -$36,152 + Conservative CC premium (50 × $22): +$50 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-38,307 ($-4,557 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-1,956 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-36,352, the opportunity cost of earning $22,286/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $15.90 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$62,800, position total $-51,299 ($-17,549 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 100% normal | 173 × $11.50 | 24 Jul | 7d | 0.1% | 53% | 99% | +21pp | $10,380 | $44,486 | +$22,200 | $42,689 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 173 × $11.50 0.1% OTM over spot $11.49 24 Jul 2026 (7d, $0.62 mid) = $10,380 credit for the 7d cycle → $44,486/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $11.50) 53% Breach risk 47% POP (stays ≤ $12.12) 69% EV / mo +$8,701 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +21pp 86% whole by 9mo vs 66% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~5.3/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $18,481/mo median; plan ~$12,567/mo after 68% keep · $21,150 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~0.8 mo [0.4-2.2], measured ONLY among the 86% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 76% Flat exit net (mid-life) +$2,350 Free roll-up +$1/wk Safest escape (by 14 Aug 2026) $16 @ 91% POP 90% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 173 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 7); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $0.66/sh now → $0.46 mid-life (likely $0.66–$0.99) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.60/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets +$0.14/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 2,284 simulated challenges: the $12 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 7, at $12 (overshoots $0.40). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $11.50 is $3 below CC-SS $14.57: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.15/sh (~25% of the $0.60 collected) or spot ≥ $12.12 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $12)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $15.24 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.41 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $14.57, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-33,750 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$31,544 − CC assignment net of premium (173 × $11.50): -$42,689 + Conservative CC premium (77 × $22): +$77 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-44,818 ($-11,068 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-1,956 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-42,862, the opportunity cost of earning $44,486/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $15.90 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$65,740, position total $-54,212 ($-20,462 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Every eligible strike x expiry in the 4-45 DTE band (4 expiries scanned, 11 clear the income floor), each sized to the minimum contracts that clear it. Sorted by survival (safest first): the primary 🎯 is the safest; rows below trade safety for income.
Fortress delta: 0.410 (IBKR) | Recovery@SS: +$31,544 (un-capped fortress gain if stock rallies to SS) | Do-nothing @ SS: $-1,956
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $12.50 | 7d | 24 Jul 2026 | $0.26 | 200/250 | $22,286 | $22,393 | 77% | 82% | +$8,748 | -$36,152 | 103.3% | $-38,307 (vs do-nothing $-36,352) |
| $12.50 | 14d | 31 Jul 2026 | $0.46 | 226/250 | $22,277 | $22,329 | 71% | 78% | +$6,701 | -$36,331 | 103.8% | $-38,513 (vs do-nothing $-36,557) |
| $12.50 | 21d | 7 Aug 2026 | $0.67 | 233/250 | $22,301 | $22,338 | 69% | 77% | +$5,462 | -$32,564 | 93.0% | $-34,753 (vs do-nothing $-32,797) |
| $12 | 7d | 24 Jul 2026 | $0.40 | 130/250 | $22,286 | $22,543 | 66% | 75% | +$6,451 | -$28,179 | 80.5% | $-30,264 (vs do-nothing $-28,309) |
| $12 | 14d | 31 Jul 2026 | $0.62 | 168/250 | $22,320 | $22,496 | 63% | 74% | +$5,159 | -$32,719 | 93.5% | $-34,843 (vs do-nothing $-32,887) |
| $12 | 21d | 7 Aug 2026 | $0.85 | 184/250 | $22,343 | $22,484 | 62% | 73% | +$4,692 | -$31,604 | 90.3% | $-33,743 (vs do-nothing $-31,788) |
| $12 | 28d | 14 Aug 2026 | $1.02 | 204/250 | $22,294 | $22,393 | 62% | 73% | +$4,579 | -$31,571 | 90.2% | $-33,731 (vs do-nothing $-31,775) |
| $11.50 | 28d | 14 Aug 2026 | $1.19 | 175/250 | $22,312 | $22,473 | 55% | 70% | +$3,249 | -$32,858 | 93.9% | $-34,989 (vs do-nothing $-33,033) |
| $11.50 | 21d | 7 Aug 2026 | $1.05 | 149/250 | $22,350 | $22,566 | 55% | 70% | +$3,623 | -$30,062 | 85.9% | $-32,167 (vs do-nothing $-30,211) |
| $11.50 | 14d | 31 Jul 2026 | $0.83 | 125/250 | $22,232 | $22,500 | 54% | 69% | +$3,822 | -$27,970 | 79.9% | $-30,051 (vs do-nothing $-28,095) |
| $11.50 | 7d | 24 Jul 2026 | $0.60 | 87/250 | $22,371 | $22,721 | 53% | 69% | +$4,375 | -$21,468 | 61.3% | $-23,511 (vs do-nothing $-21,555) |
Income/mo = FIGHT leg gross, DTE-prorated. Net/mo = FIGHT + conservative CC gross minus hedge cost. POP (mid) = probability stock closes at or below (strike + mid premium) at expiry, per-strike chain IV when available. Survival = CC expires fully worthless. EV/mo = premium minus expected buyback, monthly, with realized vol = IV x 85% (variance risk premium 15%). Cap give-up @ SS = recovery mortgaged on a V-bounce to SS, net of premium. Total P&L @ SS = absolute position P&L if the stock closes at SS; "vs do-nothing" = opportunity cost against holding all 250 contracts at the conservative CC.