MARA-LC25 @ $11.49 UNDERWATER $14.91 (56.5% below BE SS)
⚠ EARNINGS · DO NOT SELL INCOME INTO IT
MARA reports 2026-07-29 (Wed), in 12 days. The recommended CC (28d) expires on/after it, so selling now holds a short call through the earnings gap, a report can blow past your strike overnight and cap you at a loss. Wait for the print, or sell only an expiry that closes BEFORE 2026-07-29.
250 contracts (25,000 sh) | BE SS: $26.40 | CC-SS: $13.94 | IV: HIGH | Accounts: Neville:0865
LC: $25 exp 2027-06-17 (entry $2.627/sh)
SP: $15 exp 2027-06-17 (entry $5.241/sh)
HP: $13 exp 2027-06-17 (entry $4.025/sh)
Economics
| Max Loss | $85,000 | (ND $1.40 + SW $2) x 25000 |
| Normal income ref | $44,464/mo | 95% ann ROI on ML |
| Hedge (static, never rolled) | $0/mo | HP expiry = SP LEAPS; decay ≈ $6,989/mo (info only, already in marks) |
| Unrealized P&L | $-26,250 | fortress legs from IBKR |
INCOME GOALPOSTS & VELOCITY
50% INCOME FLOOR
$22,232/mo
HEDGE COVER
$0/mo (static)
NORMAL INCOME
$44,464/mo (ATM CC, chain)
IC VELOCITY
0.8 mo to earn back $35,000
ML VELOCITY
1.9 mo to earn back $85,000
NOT a deep drawdown: a CC at CC-SS $13.94 (probe: $14C 14d) still earns $9,107/mo (20% of normal). Sell the normal CC at/above CC-SS; a FIGHT CC below it is not needed here.
🏦 CAMPAIGN LEDGER , realized CC income since 2026-07-13; banked cash shrinks the hole (shown as an info-only banked floor, the recommended CC-SS stays the pure recovery strike; seeded from open positions, reconciled from IBKR executions nightly)
Banked since 2026-07-13
$6
Hole (after banked)
$26,244
was $26,250 · 0% earned back
TECHNICALS (cc_timing weekly gate + daily trigger)
WEEKLYNEUTRAL · %B 49 (live) · RSI 47 · MACD bullish, hist falling
DAILYFALLING (provisional) · RSI 40 · %B 12 · hist falling (nightly)
LEVELSUpper BB (CC ceiling) $15.89 (+38%) · daily UBB $15.25 · 1-wk expected move ±$1 (chain IV)
SETUPNo tilt: engine default. (advisory; floors and picks are chain-only)
⚠ Next earnings 2026-07-29: candidates whose expiry crosses it are flagged in the spectrum; EV is unreliable across earnings.
NOT a deep drawdown. A CC at/above CC-SS $13.94 keeps this fortress whole if assigned, so there is no need to FIGHT below it. Three income options to consider, richer → safer, all at/above CC-SS. Click a card for its if-challenged roll menu.
🎯 Recommended · sell 250 × $14 14 Aug 2026 (28d) · richest strike still ≥80% survivalroll menu if challenged ▾
Survival (stays ≤ $14)
81%
Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 250 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 14 of 28); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic
Buyback gross: $1.80/sh now → $1.27 mid-life → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.48/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.79/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (250 ct) | POP / surv
of new CC |
|---|
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP.
Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened.
🛡 Safer · sell 250 × $16 14 Aug 2026 (28d) · higher survival, lighter premiumroll menu if challenged ▾
Survival (stays ≤ $16)
90%
Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 250 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 14 of 28); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic
Buyback gross: $2.22/sh now → $1.58 mid-life → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.14/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$1.44/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (250 ct) | POP / surv
of new CC |
|---|
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP.
Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened.
🛡 Safer · sell 250 × $18.50 24 Jul 2026 (7d) · higher survival, lighter premiumroll menu if challenged ▾
Survival (stays ≤ $18.50)
100%
Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 250 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 7); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic
Buyback gross: $1.41/sh now → $1.00 mid-life → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.01/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.99/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (250 ct) | POP / surv
of new CC |
|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$18 | 31 Jul 2026 | 10d left | +$0.55/sh | +$13,688 cycle +$13,938 | 69% surv 54% |
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$20 | 31 Jul 2026 | 10d left | +$0.17/sh | +$4,189 cycle +$4,439 | 74% surv 64% |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$22 | 14 Aug 2026 | 24d left | +$0.20/sh | +$4,987 cycle +$5,237 | 80% surv 75% |
| SS $26 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder |
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP.
Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened.
⚔ FIGHT CC options · full candidate scan (11 clear the floor), click to expand
Every eligible strike x expiry in the 4-45 DTE band (4 expiries scanned, 11 clear the income floor), each sized to the minimum contracts that clear it. Sorted by survival (safest first): the primary 🎯 is the safest; rows below trade safety for income.
Fortress delta: 0.411 (IBKR) | Recovery@SS: +$25,177 (un-capped fortress gain if stock rallies to SS) | Do-nothing @ SS: $-823
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|
| $12.50 | 7d | 24 Jul 2026 | $0.26 | 200/250 | $22,286 | $22,393 | 77% | 82% | +$8,748 | -$23,608 | 67.5% | $-24,631 (vs do-nothing $-23,808) |
| $12.50 | 14d | 31 Jul 2026 | $0.46 | 226/250 | $22,277 | $22,329 | 71% | 78% | +$6,701 | -$22,157 | 63.3% | $-23,206 (vs do-nothing $-22,383) |
| $12.50 | 21d | 7 Aug 2026 | $0.67 | 233/250 | $22,301 | $22,338 | 69% | 77% | +$5,462 | -$17,950 | 51.3% | $-19,006 (vs do-nothing $-18,183) |
| $12 | 7d | 24 Jul 2026 | $0.40 | 130/250 | $22,286 | $22,543 | 66% | 75% | +$6,451 | -$20,025 | 57.2% | $-20,978 (vs do-nothing $-20,155) |
| $12 | 14d | 31 Jul 2026 | $0.62 | 168/250 | $22,320 | $22,496 | 63% | 74% | +$5,159 | -$22,183 | 63.4% | $-23,174 (vs do-nothing $-22,351) |
| $12 | 21d | 7 Aug 2026 | $0.85 | 184/250 | $22,343 | $22,484 | 62% | 73% | +$4,692 | -$20,063 | 57.3% | $-21,071 (vs do-nothing $-20,247) |
| $12 | 28d | 14 Aug 2026 | $1.02 | 204/250 | $22,294 | $22,393 | 62% | 73% | +$4,579 | -$18,776 | 53.6% | $-19,803 (vs do-nothing $-18,980) |
| $11.50 | 28d | 14 Aug 2026 | $1.19 | 175/250 | $22,312 | $22,473 | 55% | 70% | +$3,249 | -$21,882 | 62.5% | $-22,880 (vs do-nothing $-22,057) |
| $11.50 | 21d | 7 Aug 2026 | $1.05 | 149/250 | $22,350 | $22,566 | 55% | 70% | +$3,623 | -$20,717 | 59.2% | $-21,689 (vs do-nothing $-20,866) |
| $11.50 | 14d | 31 Jul 2026 | $0.83 | 125/250 | $22,232 | $22,500 | 54% | 69% | +$3,822 | -$20,130 | 57.5% | $-21,078 (vs do-nothing $-20,255) |
| $11.50 | 7d | 24 Jul 2026 | $0.60 | 87/250 | $22,371 | $22,721 | 53% | 69% | +$4,375 | -$16,011 | 45.7% | $-16,922 (vs do-nothing $-16,098) |
Income/mo = FIGHT leg gross, DTE-prorated. Net/mo = FIGHT + conservative CC gross minus hedge cost. POP (mid) = probability stock closes at or below (strike + mid premium) at expiry, per-strike chain IV when available. Survival = CC expires fully worthless. EV/mo = premium minus expected buyback, monthly, with realized vol = IV x 85% (variance risk premium 15%). Cap give-up @ SS = recovery mortgaged on a V-bounce to SS, net of premium. Total P&L @ SS = absolute position P&L if the stock closes at SS; "vs do-nothing" = opportunity cost against holding all 250 contracts at the conservative CC.