250 contracts (25,000 sh) | BE SS: $26.40 | CC-SS: $14.32 | IV: HIGH | Accounts: Neville:0865
| Max Loss | $85,000 | (ND $1.40 + SW $2) x 25000 |
| Normal income ref | $35,893/mo | 95% ann ROI on ML |
| Hedge (static, never rolled) | $0/mo | HP expiry = SP LEAPS; decay ≈ $6,527/mo (info only, already in marks) |
| Unrealized P&L | $-36,250 | fortress legs from IBKR |
Each Friday gets its own recommended pick and full income ladder (safest strike per income rung, sized across your 250 contracts). The master ranks the two by E[net]/mo to pick one grand pick; both are shown here so you can choose the tenor that fits your roll cadence.
| Track | Expiry | Sell | Survival | Income/mo | E[net]/mo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NEXT FRIDAY 🏆 | 24 Jul 2026 · 7d | 221 × $12 | 78% | $17,996 | $3,395 |
| Rung | Sell | Expiry | DTE | OTM | Survival | Touch odds | FIGHT edge | Per cycle | Income/mo | Δ vs pick | Cap give-up | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| ▸ | 🛡 safe yield ← lean | 250 × $13 | 24 Jul | 7d | 18.6% | 90% | 20% | +9pp | $2,000 | $8,571 | -$9,424 | $31,101 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 250 × $13 18.6% OTM over spot $10.96 24 Jul 2026 (7d, $0.08 mid) = $2,000 credit for the 7d cycle → $8,571/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $13) 90% Breach risk 10% POP (stays ≤ $13.09) 91% EV / mo +$3,776 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +9pp 71% whole by 9mo vs 62% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~0.8/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $5,688/mo median; plan ~$3,868/mo after 68% keep · $14,956 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~1.3 mo [0.7-2.6], measured ONLY among the 71% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 11% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$11,139 Free roll-up +$1/wk Safest escape (by 14 Aug 2026) $15 @ 79% POP 75% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 250 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 7); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $0.74/sh now → $0.53 mid-life (likely $0.40–$0.72) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.08/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.45/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 330 simulated challenges: the $13 strike is typically first touched on day 5 of 7, at $13 (overshoots $0.32). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $13 is $1 below CC-SS $14.32: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.02/sh (~25% of the $0.08 collected) or spot ≥ $13.09 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $13)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $15.27 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.39 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $14.32, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-36,250 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$33,052 − CC assignment net of premium (250 × $13): -$31,101 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-34,299 (+$1,951 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-2,948 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-31,351, the opportunity cost of earning $8,571/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $15.88 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$70,000, position total $-57,911 ($-21,661 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 33% normal | 146 × $12 | 24 Jul | 7d | 9.5% | 78% | 47% | +11pp | $2,774 | $11,889 | -$6,107 | $31,157 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 146 × $12 9.5% OTM over spot $10.96 24 Jul 2026 (7d, $0.20 mid) = $2,774 credit for the 7d cycle → $11,889/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $12) 78% Breach risk 22% POP (stays ≤ $12.20) 81% EV / mo +$2,602 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +11pp 73% whole by 9mo vs 62% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~2.2/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $6,140/mo median; plan ~$4,175/mo after 68% keep · $16,553 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~1.4 mo [0.7-2.8], measured ONLY among the 73% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 35% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$3,991 Free roll-up +$1/wk Safest escape (by 14 Aug 2026) $15 @ 86% POP 84% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 146 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 7); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $0.66/sh now → $0.46 mid-life (likely $0.50–$0.76) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.19/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.27/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 1,044 simulated challenges: the $12 strike is typically first touched on day 4 of 7, at $12 (overshoots $0.34). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $12 is $2 below CC-SS $14.32: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.05/sh (~25% of the $0.19 collected) or spot ≥ $12.20 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $12)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $15.27 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.39 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $14.32, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-36,250 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$33,052 − CC assignment net of premium (146 × $12): -$31,157 + Conservative CC premium (104 × $22): +$104 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-34,251 (+$1,999 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-2,948 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-31,303, the opportunity cost of earning $11,889/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $15.88 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$53,874, position total $-41,681 ($-5,431 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🎯 50% normal | 221 × $12 | 24 Jul | 7d | 9.5% | 78% | 33% | +20pp | $4,199 | $17,996 | — | $47,163 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 221 × $12 9.5% OTM over spot $10.96 24 Jul 2026 (7d, $0.20 mid) = $4,199 credit for the 7d cycle → $17,996/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $12) 78% Breach risk 22% POP (stays ≤ $12.20) 81% EV / mo +$3,938 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +20pp 79% whole by 9mo vs 59% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~1.9/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $9,393/mo median; plan ~$6,387/mo after 68% keep · $21,177 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~1.4 mo [0.7-2.6], measured ONLY among the 79% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 33% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$6,042 Free roll-up +$1/wk Safest escape (by 14 Aug 2026) $15 @ 86% POP 84% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 221 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 7); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $0.66/sh now → $0.46 mid-life (likely $0.49–$0.79) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.19/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.27/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 998 simulated challenges: the $12 strike is typically first touched on day 4 of 7, at $12 (overshoots $0.34). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $12 is $2 below CC-SS $14.32: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.05/sh (~25% of the $0.19 collected) or spot ≥ $12.20 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $12)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $15.27 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.39 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $14.32, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-36,250 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$33,052 − CC assignment net of premium (221 × $12): -$47,163 + Conservative CC premium (29 × $22): +$29 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-50,332 ($-14,082 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-2,948 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-47,384, the opportunity cost of earning $17,996/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $15.88 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$81,549, position total $-69,431 ($-33,181 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 100% normal | 171 × $11 | 24 Jul | 7d | 0.4% | 54% | 98% | +25pp | $8,379 | $35,910 | +$17,914 | $48,462 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 171 × $11 0.4% OTM over spot $10.96 24 Jul 2026 (7d, $0.52 mid) = $8,379 credit for the 7d cycle → $35,910/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $11) 54% Breach risk 46% POP (stays ≤ $11.52) 67% EV / mo +$2,483 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +25pp 82% whole by 9mo vs 57% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~6.1/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $12,850/mo median; plan ~$8,738/mo after 68% keep · $26,340 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~1.3 mo [0.7-2.8], measured ONLY among the 82% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 76% Flat exit net (mid-life) +$1,457 Free roll-up +$1/wk Safest escape (by 7 Aug 2026) $16 @ 95% POP 95% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 171 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 7); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $0.57/sh now → $0.40 mid-life (likely $0.57–$0.86) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.49/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets +$0.09/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 2,273 simulated challenges: the $11 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 7, at $11 (overshoots $0.39). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $11 is $3 below CC-SS $14.32: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.12/sh (~25% of the $0.49 collected) or spot ≥ $11.52 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $11)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $15.27 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.39 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $14.32, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-36,250 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$33,052 − CC assignment net of premium (171 × $11): -$48,462 + Conservative CC premium (79 × $22): +$79 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-51,581 ($-15,331 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-2,948 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-48,633, the opportunity cost of earning $35,910/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $15.88 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$75,069, position total $-62,901 ($-26,651 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Every eligible strike x expiry in the 4-45 DTE band (4 expiries scanned, 10 clear the income floor), each sized to the minimum contracts that clear it. Sorted by survival (safest first): the primary 🎯 is the safest; rows below trade safety for income.
Fortress delta: 0.393 (IBKR) | Recovery@SS: +$33,052 (un-capped fortress gain if stock rallies to SS) | Do-nothing @ SS: $-2,948
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $12 | 7d | 24 Jul 2026 | $0.19 | 221/250 | $17,996 | $18,058 | 78% | 81% | +$3,938 | -$47,163 | 134.8% | $-50,332 (vs do-nothing $-47,384) |
| $12 | 28d | 14 Aug 2026 | $0.68 | 247/250 | $17,996 | $18,002 | 68% | 78% | +$2,552 | -$40,608 | 116.0% | $-43,803 (vs do-nothing $-40,855) |
| $11.50 | 7d | 24 Jul 2026 | $0.31 | 136/250 | $18,069 | $18,313 | 67% | 75% | +$2,547 | -$34,191 | 97.7% | $-37,275 (vs do-nothing $-34,327) |
| $11.50 | 14d | 31 Jul 2026 | $0.50 | 168/250 | $18,000 | $18,176 | 63% | 73% | $-3,313 | -$39,044 | 111.6% | $-42,160 (vs do-nothing $-39,212) |
| $11.50 | 21d | 7 Aug 2026 | $0.69 | 183/250 | $18,039 | $18,182 | 63% | 75% | +$1,778 | -$39,053 | 111.6% | $-42,184 (vs do-nothing $-39,236) |
| $11.50 | 28d | 14 Aug 2026 | $0.80 | 210/250 | $18,000 | $18,086 | 62% | 75% | +$996 | -$42,505 | 121.4% | $-45,663 (vs do-nothing $-42,715) |
| $11 | 28d | 14 Aug 2026 | $0.80 | 210/250 | $18,000 | $18,086 | 56% | 70% | $-3,438 | -$53,005 | 151.4% | $-56,163 (vs do-nothing $-53,215) |
| $11 | 21d | 7 Aug 2026 | $0.90 | 140/250 | $18,000 | $18,236 | 55% | 70% | +$1,473 | -$33,937 | 97.0% | $-37,025 (vs do-nothing $-34,077) |
| $11 | 14d | 31 Jul 2026 | $0.67 | 125/250 | $17,946 | $18,214 | 54% | 68% | $-146 | -$33,176 | 94.8% | $-36,249 (vs do-nothing $-33,301) |
| $11 | 7d | 24 Jul 2026 | $0.49 | 86/250 | $18,060 | $18,411 | 54% | 67% | +$1,249 | -$24,373 | 69.6% | $-27,407 (vs do-nothing $-24,459) |
Income/mo = FIGHT leg gross, DTE-prorated. Net/mo = FIGHT + conservative CC gross minus hedge cost. POP (mid) = probability stock closes at or below (strike + mid premium) at expiry, per-strike chain IV when available. Survival = CC expires fully worthless. EV/mo = premium minus expected buyback, monthly, with realized vol = IV x 85% (variance risk premium 15%). Cap give-up @ SS = recovery mortgaged on a V-bounce to SS, net of premium. Total P&L @ SS = absolute position P&L if the stock closes at SS; "vs do-nothing" = opportunity cost against holding all 250 contracts at the conservative CC.