250 contracts (25,000 sh) | BE SS: $26.40 | CC-SS: $15.40 | IV: HIGH | Accounts: Neville:0865
| Max Loss | $85,000 | (ND $1.40 + SW $2) x 25000 |
| Normal income ref | $43,636/mo | 95% ann ROI on ML |
| Hedge (static, never rolled) | $0/mo | HP expiry = SP LEAPS; decay ≈ $7,334/mo (info only, already in marks) |
| Unrealized P&L | $-42,000 | fortress legs from IBKR |
Each Friday gets its own recommended pick and full income ladder (safest strike per income rung, sized across your 250 contracts). The master ranks the two by E[net]/mo to pick one grand pick; both are shown here so you can choose the tenor that fits your roll cadence.
| Track | Expiry | Sell | Survival | Income/mo | E[net]/mo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| THIS FRIDAY 🏆 | 24 Jul 2026 · 4d | 139 × $12.50 | 74% | $21,892 | $5,136 |
| NEXT FRIDAY | 31 Jul 2026 · 11d | 250 × $13 | 76% | $21,818 | $2,015 |
| Rung | Sell | Expiry | DTE | OTM | Survival | Touch odds | FIGHT edge | Per cycle | Income/mo | Δ vs pick | Cap give-up | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| ▸ | 🛡 safe yield | 250 × $13.50 | 24 Jul | 4d | 15.2% | 91% | 18% | +15pp | $1,500 | $11,250 | -$10,643 | $45,943 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 250 × $13.50 15.2% OTM over spot $11.72 24 Jul 2026 (4d, $0.07 mid) = $1,500 credit for the 4d cycle → $11,250/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $13.50) 91% Breach risk 9% POP (stays ≤ $13.56) 92% EV / mo +$5,207 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +15pp 68% whole by 9mo vs 54% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~1.3/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $7,119/mo median; plan ~$4,841/mo after 68% keep · $25,997 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~1.8 mo [0.8-3.7], measured ONLY among the 68% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 11% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$9,623 Free roll-up +$1/wk Safest escape (by 14 Aug 2026) $17 @ 85% POP 82% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 250 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 2 of 4); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $0.63/sh now → $0.44 mid-life (likely $0.42–$0.75) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.06/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.38/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 334 simulated challenges: the $14 strike is typically first touched on day 3 of 4, at $14 (overshoots $0.43). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $13.50 is $2 below CC-SS $15.40: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.01/sh (~25% of the $0.06 collected) or spot ≥ $13.56 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $14)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $14.97 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.42 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $15.40, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-42,000 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$38,248 − CC assignment net of premium (250 × $13.50): -$45,943 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-49,695 ($-7,695 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-3,502 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-46,193, the opportunity cost of earning $11,250/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $15.73 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$54,250, position total $-54,546 ($-12,546 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 33% normal ← lean | 175 × $13 | 24 Jul | 4d | 10.9% | 84% | 32% | +17pp | $1,925 | $14,438 | -$7,455 | $40,035 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 175 × $13 10.9% OTM over spot $11.72 24 Jul 2026 (4d, $0.12 mid) = $1,925 credit for the 4d cycle → $14,438/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $13) 84% Breach risk 16% POP (stays ≤ $13.12) 86% EV / mo +$4,461 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +17pp 75% whole by 9mo vs 58% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~2.2/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $8,099/mo median; plan ~$5,507/mo after 68% keep · $22,068 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~1.4 mo [0.7-3.0], measured ONLY among the 75% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 22% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$5,432 Free roll-up +$1/wk Safest escape (by 7 Aug 2026) $16 @ 86% POP 84% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 175 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 2 of 4); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $0.59/sh now → $0.42 mid-life (likely $0.43–$0.73) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.11/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.31/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 657 simulated challenges: the $13 strike is typically first touched on day 3 of 4, at $13 (overshoots $0.41). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $13 is $2 below CC-SS $15.40: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.03/sh (~25% of the $0.11 collected) or spot ≥ $13.12 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $13)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $14.97 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.42 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $15.40, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-42,000 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$38,248 − CC assignment net of premium (175 × $13): -$40,035 + Conservative CC premium (75 × $22): +$75 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-43,712 ($-1,712 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-3,502 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-40,210, the opportunity cost of earning $14,438/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $15.73 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$45,850, position total $-46,071 ($-4,071 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🎯 50% normal | 139 × $12.50 | 24 Jul | 4d | 6.7% | 74% | 41% | +16pp | $2,919 | $21,892 | — | $37,360 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 139 × $12.50 6.7% OTM over spot $11.72 24 Jul 2026 (4d, $0.22 mid) = $2,919 credit for the 4d cycle → $21,892/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $12.50) 74% Breach risk 26% POP (stays ≤ $12.72) 79% EV / mo +$4,964 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +16pp 77% whole by 9mo vs 61% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~3.8/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $9,792/mo median; plan ~$6,658/mo after 68% keep · $26,691 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~1.7 mo [0.7-2.9], measured ONLY among the 77% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 41% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$2,593 Free roll-up +$1/wk Safest escape (by 14 Aug 2026) $17 @ 90% POP 89% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 139 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 2 of 4); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $0.56/sh now → $0.40 mid-life (likely $0.47–$0.74) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.21/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.19/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 1,216 simulated challenges: the $12 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 4, at $13 (overshoots $0.40). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $12.50 is $3 below CC-SS $15.40: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.05/sh (~25% of the $0.21 collected) or spot ≥ $12.72 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $12)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $14.97 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.42 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $15.40, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-42,000 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$38,248 − CC assignment net of premium (139 × $12.50): -$37,360 + Conservative CC premium (111 × $22): +$111 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-41,000 (+$1,000 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-3,502 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-37,499, the opportunity cost of earning $21,892/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $15.73 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$41,978, position total $-42,163 ($-163 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 100% normal | 158 × $12 | 24 Jul | 4d | 2.4% | 61% | 82% | +23pp | $5,846 | $43,845 | +$21,952 | $47,838 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 158 × $12 2.4% OTM over spot $11.72 24 Jul 2026 (4d, $0.38 mid) = $5,846 credit for the 4d cycle → $43,845/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $12) 61% Breach risk 39% POP (stays ≤ $12.38) 71% EV / mo +$5,907 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +23pp 82% whole by 9mo vs 60% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~6.0/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $15,680/mo median; plan ~$10,662/mo after 68% keep · $33,184 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~1.3 mo [0.7-2.7], measured ONLY among the 82% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 60% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$52 Free roll-up +$1/wk Safest escape (by 7 Aug 2026) $15 @ 90% POP 89% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 158 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 2 of 4); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $0.53/sh now → $0.37 mid-life (likely $0.48–$0.80) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.37/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.00/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 1,800 simulated challenges: the $12 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 4, at $12 (overshoots $0.43). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $12 is $3 below CC-SS $15.40: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.09/sh (~25% of the $0.37 collected) or spot ≥ $12.38 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $12)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $14.97 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.42 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $15.40, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-42,000 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$38,248 − CC assignment net of premium (158 × $12): -$47,838 + Conservative CC premium (92 × $22): +$92 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-51,498 ($-9,498 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-3,502 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-47,996, the opportunity cost of earning $43,845/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $15.73 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$53,088, position total $-53,292 ($-11,292 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Rung | Sell | Expiry | DTE | OTM | Survival | Touch odds | FIGHT edge | Per cycle | Income/mo | Δ vs pick | Cap give-up | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| ▸ | 🛡 safe yield ← lean | 250 × $14.50 | 31 Jul | 11d | 23.7% | 91% | 19% | +11pp | $2,500 | $6,818 | -$15,000 | $19,943 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 250 × $14.50 23.7% OTM over spot $11.72 31 Jul 2026 (11d, $0.12 mid) = $2,500 credit for the 11d cycle → $6,818/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $14.50) 91% Breach risk 9% POP (stays ≤ $14.62) 92% EV / mo +$2,787 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +11pp 70% whole by 9mo vs 59% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~0.6/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $4,688/mo median; plan ~$3,188/mo after 68% keep · $14,786 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~1.5 mo [0.8-3.1], measured ONLY among the 70% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 13% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$18,247 Free roll-up +$1/wk Safest escape (by 14 Aug 2026) $16 @ 77% POP 71% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 250 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 5 of 11); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $1.17/sh now → $0.83 mid-life (likely $0.72–$1.17) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.10/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.73/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 403 simulated challenges: the $14 strike is typically first touched on day 7 of 11, at $15 (overshoots $0.45). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $14.50 is $1 below CC-SS $15.40: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.03/sh (~25% of the $0.10 collected) or spot ≥ $14.62 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $14)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $14.97 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.42 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $15.40, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-42,000 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$38,248 − CC assignment net of premium (250 × $14.50): -$19,943 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-23,695 (+$18,305 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-3,502 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-20,193, the opportunity cost of earning $6,818/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $15.73 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$28,250, position total $-28,546 (+$13,454 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 33% normal | 165 × $13 | 31 Jul | 11d | 10.9% | 76% | 51% | +13pp | $5,280 | $14,400 | -$7,418 | $34,283 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 165 × $13 10.9% OTM over spot $11.72 31 Jul 2026 (11d, $0.33 mid) = $5,280 credit for the 11d cycle → $14,400/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $13) 76% Breach risk 24% POP (stays ≤ $13.34) 80% EV / mo +$3,613 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +13pp 69% whole by 9mo vs 56% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~1.8/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $7,675/mo median; plan ~$5,219/mo after 68% keep · $24,389 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~1.4 mo [0.7-3.0], measured ONLY among the 69% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 42% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$6,287 Free roll-up +$0/wk Safest escape (by 14 Aug 2026) $16 @ 84% POP 81% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 165 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 5 of 11); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $0.99/sh now → $0.70 mid-life (likely $0.77–$1.14) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.32/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.38/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 1,263 simulated challenges: the $13 strike is typically first touched on day 5 of 11, at $13 (overshoots $0.41). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $13 is $2 below CC-SS $15.40: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.08/sh (~25% of the $0.32 collected) or spot ≥ $13.34 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $13)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $14.97 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.42 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $15.40, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-42,000 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$38,248 − CC assignment net of premium (165 × $13): -$34,283 + Conservative CC premium (85 × $22): +$85 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-37,949 (+$4,051 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-3,502 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-34,448, the opportunity cost of earning $14,400/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $15.73 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$39,765, position total $-39,976 (+$2,024 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🎯 50% normal | 250 × $13 | 31 Jul | 11d | 10.9% | 76% | 41% | +18pp | $8,000 | $21,818 | — | $51,943 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 250 × $13 10.9% OTM over spot $11.72 31 Jul 2026 (11d, $0.33 mid) = $8,000 credit for the 11d cycle → $21,818/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $13) 76% Breach risk 24% POP (stays ≤ $13.34) 80% EV / mo +$5,474 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +18pp 79% whole by 9mo vs 60% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~1.4/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $12,632/mo median; plan ~$8,589/mo after 68% keep · $28,817 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~1.5 mo [0.7-2.8], measured ONLY among the 79% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 41% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$9,525 Free roll-up +$0/wk Safest escape (by 14 Aug 2026) $16 @ 84% POP 81% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 250 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 5 of 11); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $0.99/sh now → $0.70 mid-life (likely $0.76–$1.12) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.32/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.38/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 1,243 simulated challenges: the $13 strike is typically first touched on day 5 of 11, at $13 (overshoots $0.39). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $13 is $2 below CC-SS $15.40: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.08/sh (~25% of the $0.32 collected) or spot ≥ $13.34 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $13)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $14.97 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.42 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $15.40, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-42,000 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$38,248 − CC assignment net of premium (250 × $13): -$51,943 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-55,695 ($-13,695 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-3,502 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-52,193, the opportunity cost of earning $21,818/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $15.73 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$60,250, position total $-60,546 ($-18,546 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 100% normal | 250 × $12 | 31 Jul | 11d | 2.4% | 59% | 88% | +31pp | $16,000 | $43,636 | +$21,818 | $68,943 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 250 × $12 2.4% OTM over spot $11.72 31 Jul 2026 (11d, $0.66 mid) = $16,000 credit for the 11d cycle → $43,636/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $12) 59% Breach risk 41% POP (stays ≤ $12.65) 70% EV / mo +$5,935 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +31pp 85% whole by 9mo vs 54% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~3.3/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $22,169/mo median; plan ~$15,075/mo after 68% keep · $31,963 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~1.0 mo [0.4-2.5], measured ONLY among the 85% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 73% Flat exit net (mid-life) +$485 Free roll-up +$0/wk Safest escape (by 14 Aug 2026) $16 @ 90% POP 89% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 250 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 5 of 11); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $0.88/sh now → $0.62 mid-life (likely $0.85–$1.16) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.64/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets +$0.02/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 2,203 simulated challenges: the $12 strike is typically first touched on day 3 of 11, at $12 (overshoots $0.40). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $12 is $3 below CC-SS $15.40: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.16/sh (~25% of the $0.64 collected) or spot ≥ $12.65 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $12)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $14.97 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.42 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $15.40, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-42,000 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$38,248 − CC assignment net of premium (250 × $12): -$68,943 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-72,695 ($-30,695 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-3,502 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-69,193, the opportunity cost of earning $43,636/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $15.73 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$77,250, position total $-77,546 ($-35,546 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Every eligible strike x expiry in the 4-45 DTE band (4 expiries scanned, 14 clear the income floor), each sized to the minimum contracts that clear it. Sorted by survival (safest first): the primary 🎯 is the safest; rows below trade safety for income.
Fortress delta: 0.416 (IBKR) | Recovery@SS: +$38,248 (un-capped fortress gain if stock rallies to SS) | Do-nothing @ SS: $-3,502
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $13 | 11d | 31 Jul 2026 | $0.32 | 250/250 | $21,818 | $21,818 | 76% | 80% | +$5,474 | -$51,943 | 148.4% | $-55,695 (vs do-nothing $-52,193) |
| $12.50 | 4d | 24 Jul 2026 | $0.21 | 139/250 | $21,892 | $22,078 | 74% | 79% | +$4,964 | -$37,360 | 106.7% | $-41,000 (vs do-nothing $-37,499) |
| $13 | 18d | 7 Aug 2026 | $0.55 | 239/250 | $21,908 | $21,927 | 71% | 78% | +$3,381 | -$44,161 | 126.2% | $-47,901 (vs do-nothing $-44,400) |
| $12.50 | 11d | 31 Jul 2026 | $0.46 | 174/250 | $21,829 | $21,956 | 68% | 75% | +$4,168 | -$42,417 | 121.2% | $-46,092 (vs do-nothing $-42,591) |
| $12.50 | 18d | 7 Aug 2026 | $0.71 | 185/250 | $21,892 | $22,000 | 65% | 74% | +$2,733 | -$40,473 | 115.6% | $-44,160 (vs do-nothing $-40,658) |
| $12.50 | 25d | 14 Aug 2026 | $0.88 | 207/250 | $21,859 | $21,931 | 65% | 74% | +$3,173 | -$41,767 | 119.3% | $-45,476 (vs do-nothing $-41,974) |
| $12 | 4d | 24 Jul 2026 | $0.37 | 79/250 | $21,922 | $22,208 | 61% | 71% | +$2,953 | -$23,919 | 68.3% | $-27,500 (vs do-nothing $-23,998) |
| $12 | 11d | 31 Jul 2026 | $0.64 | 125/250 | $21,818 | $22,027 | 59% | 70% | +$2,967 | -$34,472 | 98.5% | $-38,098 (vs do-nothing $-34,597) |
| $12 | 25d | 14 Aug 2026 | $1.07 | 170/250 | $21,828 | $21,961 | 59% | 71% | +$2,613 | -$39,571 | 113.1% | $-43,243 (vs do-nothing $-39,741) |
| $12 | 18d | 7 Aug 2026 | $0.90 | 146/250 | $21,900 | $22,073 | 59% | 71% | +$2,908 | -$36,467 | 104.2% | $-40,114 (vs do-nothing $-36,613) |
| $11.50 | 25d | 14 Aug 2026 | $1.28 | 143/250 | $21,965 | $22,143 | 53% | 68% | +$1,937 | -$37,434 | 107.0% | $-41,078 (vs do-nothing $-37,577) |
| $11.50 | 18d | 7 Aug 2026 | $1.11 | 118/250 | $21,830 | $22,050 | 51% | 68% | +$1,992 | -$32,895 | 94.0% | $-36,515 (vs do-nothing $-33,013) |
| $11.50 | 11d | 31 Jul 2026 | $0.86 | 94/250 | $22,047 | $22,307 | 49% | 66% | +$1,807 | -$28,555 | 81.6% | $-32,150 (vs do-nothing $-28,649) |
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $11.50 | 4d | 24 Jul 2026 | $0.59 | 50/250 | $22,125 | $22,458 | 45% | 64% | +$1,241 | -$16,539 | 47.3% | $-20,090 (vs do-nothing $-16,589) |
Income/mo = FIGHT leg gross, DTE-prorated. Net/mo = FIGHT + conservative CC gross minus hedge cost. POP (mid) = probability stock closes at or below (strike + mid premium) at expiry, per-strike chain IV when available. Survival = CC expires fully worthless. EV/mo = premium minus expected buyback, monthly, with realized vol = IV x 85% (variance risk premium 15%). Cap give-up @ SS = recovery mortgaged on a V-bounce to SS, net of premium. Total P&L @ SS = absolute position P&L if the stock closes at SS; "vs do-nothing" = opportunity cost against holding all 250 contracts at the conservative CC.