MARA-LC25 @ $11.71 UNDERWATER $14.69 (55.7% below BE SS)
⚠ EARNINGS · DO NOT SELL INCOME INTO IT
MARA reports 2026-07-29 (Wed), in 8 days. The recommended CC (24d) expires on/after it, so selling now holds a short call through the earnings gap, a report can blow past your strike overnight and cap you at a loss. Wait for the print, or sell only an expiry that closes BEFORE 2026-07-29.
250 contracts (25,000 sh) | BE SS: $26.40 | CC-SS: $14.47 | IV: HIGH | Accounts: Neville:0865
LC: $25 exp 2027-06-17 (entry $2.627/sh)
SP: $15 exp 2027-06-17 (entry $5.241/sh)
HP: $13 exp 2027-06-17 (entry $4.025/sh)
Economics
| Max Loss | $85,000 | (ND $1.40 + SW $2) x 25000 |
| Normal income ref | $41,250/mo | 95% ann ROI on ML |
| Hedge (static, never rolled) | $0/mo | HP expiry = SP LEAPS; decay ≈ $7,159/mo (info only, already in marks) |
| Unrealized P&L | $-30,375 | fortress legs from IBKR |
INCOME GOALPOSTS & VELOCITY
50% INCOME FLOOR
$20,625/mo
HEDGE COVER
$0/mo (static)
NORMAL INCOME
$41,250/mo (ATM CC, chain)
IC VELOCITY
0.8 mo to earn back $35,000
ML VELOCITY
2.1 mo to earn back $85,000
NOT a deep drawdown: a CC at CC-SS $14.47 (probe: $14.5C 17d) still earns $10,147/mo (25% of normal). Sell the normal CC at/above CC-SS; a FIGHT CC below it is not needed here.
🏦 CAMPAIGN LEDGER , realized CC income since 2026-07-13; banked cash shrinks the hole (shown as an info-only banked floor, the recommended CC-SS stays the pure recovery strike; seeded from open positions, reconciled from IBKR executions nightly)
Banked since 2026-07-13
$-1,641
Hole (after banked)
$32,016
was $30,375 · -5% earned back
TECHNICALS (cc_timing weekly gate + daily trigger)
WEEKLYNEUTRAL · %B 49 (live) · RSI 49 · MACD bearish, hist falling
DAILYFALLING (provisional) · RSI 42 · %B 25 · hist falling (nightly)
LEVELSUpper BB (CC ceiling) $15.74 (+34%) · daily UBB $14.96 · 1-wk expected move ±$2 (chain IV)
SETUPNo tilt: engine default. (advisory; floors and picks are chain-only)
⚠ Next earnings 2026-07-29: candidates whose expiry crosses it are flagged in the spectrum; EV is unreliable across earnings.
NOT a deep drawdown. A CC at/above CC-SS $14.47 keeps this fortress whole if assigned, so there is no need to FIGHT below it. Three income options to consider, richer → safer, all at/above CC-SS. Click a card for its if-challenged roll menu.
🎯 Recommended · sell 250 × $14.50 14 Aug 2026 (24d) · richest strike still ≥80% survivalroll menu if challenged ▾
Survival (stays ≤ $14.50)
83%
Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 250 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 12 of 24); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic
Buyback gross: $1.86/sh now → $1.32 mid-life → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.40/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.92/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (250 ct) | POP / surv
of new CC |
|---|
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP.
Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened.
🛡 Safer · sell 250 × $16 14 Aug 2026 (24d) · higher survival, lighter premiumroll menu if challenged ▾
Survival (stays ≤ $16)
90%
Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 250 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 12 of 24); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic
Buyback gross: $2.17/sh now → $1.54 mid-life → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.19/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$1.35/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (250 ct) | POP / surv
of new CC |
|---|
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP.
Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened.
🛡 Safer · sell 250 × $20 7 Aug 2026 (17d) · higher survival, lighter premiumroll menu if challenged ▾
Survival (stays ≤ $20)
100%
Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 250 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 8 of 17); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic
Buyback gross: $2.55/sh now → $1.81 mid-life → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.01/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$1.80/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (250 ct) | POP / surv
of new CC |
|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$20 | 14 Aug 2026 | 16d left | +$0.50/sh | +$12,481 cycle +$12,731 | 70% surv 56% |
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$21 | 14 Aug 2026 | 16d left | +$0.13/sh | +$3,176 cycle +$3,426 | 72% surv 61% |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$21 | 14 Aug 2026 | 16d left | +$0.13/sh | +$3,176 cycle +$3,426 | 72% surv 61% |
| SS $26 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder |
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP.
Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened.
⚔ FIGHT CC options · full candidate scan (16 clear the floor), click to expand
Every eligible strike x expiry in the 3-45 DTE band (4 expiries scanned, 16 clear the income floor), each sized to the minimum contracts that clear it. Sorted by survival (safest first): the primary 🎯 is the safest; rows below trade safety for income.
Fortress delta: 0.417 (IBKR) | Recovery@SS: +$28,822 (un-capped fortress gain if stock rallies to SS) | Do-nothing @ SS: $-1,303
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|
| $13 | 3d | 24 Jul 2026 | $0.11 | 188/250 | $20,680 | $20,866 | 88% | 90% | +$12,823 | -$25,563 | 73.0% | $-27,053 (vs do-nothing $-25,751) |
| $12.50 | 3d | 24 Jul 2026 | $0.22 | 94/250 | $20,680 | $21,148 | 78% | 83% | +$10,669 | -$16,447 | 47.0% | $-17,844 (vs do-nothing $-16,541) |
| $13 | 10d | 31 Jul 2026 | $0.31 | 222/250 | $20,646 | $20,730 | 77% | 82% | +$7,360 | -$25,746 | 73.6% | $-27,270 (vs do-nothing $-25,968) |
| $13 | 17d | 7 Aug 2026 | $0.55 | 213/250 | $20,674 | $20,785 | 72% | 79% | +$5,751 | -$19,590 | 56.0% | $-21,106 (vs do-nothing $-19,803) |
| $13 | 24d | 14 Aug 2026 | $0.75 | 220/250 | $20,625 | $20,715 | 70% | 78% | +$5,393 | -$15,834 | 45.2% | $-17,357 (vs do-nothing $-16,054) |
| $12.50 | 10d | 31 Jul 2026 | $0.45 | 153/250 | $20,655 | $20,946 | 69% | 77% | +$6,141 | -$23,252 | 66.4% | $-24,707 (vs do-nothing $-23,405) |
| $12.50 | 17d | 7 Aug 2026 | $0.71 | 165/250 | $20,674 | $20,929 | 66% | 75% | +$4,952 | -$20,785 | 59.4% | $-22,253 (vs do-nothing $-20,950) |
| $12.50 | 24d | 14 Aug 2026 | $0.90 | 184/250 | $20,700 | $20,898 | 65% | 75% | +$4,507 | -$19,683 | 56.2% | $-21,170 (vs do-nothing $-19,867) |
| $12 | 3d | 24 Jul 2026 | $0.38 | 55/250 | $20,900 | $21,485 | 62% | 75% | +$7,488 | -$11,493 | 32.8% | $-12,851 (vs do-nothing $-11,548) |
| $12 | 10d | 31 Jul 2026 | $0.64 | 108/250 | $20,736 | $21,162 | 59% | 72% | +$4,940 | -$19,761 | 56.5% | $-21,172 (vs do-nothing $-19,869) |
| $12 | 24d | 14 Aug 2026 | $1.11 | 149/250 | $20,674 | $20,977 | 59% | 72% | +$4,131 | -$20,260 | 57.9% | $-21,712 (vs do-nothing $-20,409) |
| $12 | 17d | 7 Aug 2026 | $0.92 | 128/250 | $20,781 | $21,147 | 59% | 72% | +$4,432 | -$19,836 | 56.7% | $-21,267 (vs do-nothing $-19,964) |
| $11.50 | 24d | 14 Aug 2026 | $1.33 | 125/250 | $20,781 | $21,156 | 52% | 69% | +$3,421 | -$20,496 | 58.6% | $-21,924 (vs do-nothing $-20,621) |
Show 3 more candidates (lower strikes: more income, lower survival)
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|
| $11.50 | 17d | 7 Aug 2026 | $1.14 | 103/250 | $20,721 | $21,162 | 51% | 68% | +$3,384 | -$18,846 | 53.8% | $-20,252 (vs do-nothing $-18,949) |
| $11.50 | 10d | 31 Jul 2026 | $0.88 | 79/250 | $20,856 | $21,369 | 49% | 68% | +$3,706 | -$16,509 | 47.2% | $-17,891 (vs do-nothing $-16,588) |
| $11.50 | 3d | 24 Jul 2026 | $0.62 | 34/250 | $21,080 | $21,728 | 44% | 67% | +$4,755 | -$7,989 | 22.8% | $-9,326 (vs do-nothing $-8,023) |
Income/mo = FIGHT leg gross, DTE-prorated. Net/mo = FIGHT + conservative CC gross minus hedge cost. POP (mid) = probability stock closes at or below (strike + mid premium) at expiry, per-strike chain IV when available. Survival = CC expires fully worthless. EV/mo = premium minus expected buyback, monthly, with realized vol = IV x 85% (variance risk premium 15%). Cap give-up @ SS = recovery mortgaged on a V-bounce to SS, net of premium. Total P&L @ SS = absolute position P&L if the stock closes at SS; "vs do-nothing" = opportunity cost against holding all 250 contracts at the conservative CC.