200 contracts (20,000 sh) | BE SS: $40.55 | CC-SS: $15.26 (banked floor $15.00) | IV: HIGH | Accounts: Main:1299
| Max Loss | $11,000 | (ND $0.55 + SW $0) x 20000 |
| Normal income ref | $23,600/mo | 95% ann ROI on ML |
| Hedge (static, never rolled) | $0/mo | HP expiry = SP LEAPS; decay ≈ $0/mo (info only, already in marks) |
| Unrealized P&L | $-8,500 | fortress legs from IBKR |
| Open leg | Acct | Credit/sh | In flight | Opened |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 200x $11.5C 21 Aug 2026 | U10001299 | $0.06 | $1,292 | 2026-08-18 |
Each Friday gets its own recommended pick and full income ladder (safest strike per income rung, sized across your 200 contracts). The master ranks the two by E[net]/mo to pick one grand pick; both are shown here so you can choose the tenor that fits your roll cadence.
| Track | Expiry | Sell | Survival | Income/mo | E[net]/mo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NEXT FRIDAY 🏆 | 28 Aug 2026 · 8d | 186 × $11.50 | 82% | $11,858 | $762 |
| Rung | Sell | Expiry | DTE | OTM | Survival | Touch odds | FIGHT edge | Per cycle | Income/mo | Δ vs pick | Cap give-up | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| ▸ | 🛡 safe yield | 200 × $12.50 | 28 Aug | 8d | 22.2% | 92%hist 97% | 16%hist 10% | +46pp | $1,000 | $3,750 | -$8,108 | $54,251 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 200 × $12.50 22.2% OTM over spot $10.23 28 Aug 2026 (8d, $0.07 mid) = $1,000 credit for the 8d cycle → $3,750/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $12.50) 92% Breach risk 8% POP (stays ≤ $12.57) 93% EV / mo +$1,236 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +46pp 90% whole by 9mo vs 44% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~0.5/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $2,692/mo median; plan ~$1,830/mo after 68% keep · $7,358 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~2.2 mo [1.4-3.9], measured ONLY among the 90% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 8% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$10,655 Free roll-up +$0/wk Safest escape (by 11 Sep 2026) $14 @ 77% POP 71% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 200 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 8); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $0.82/sh now → $0.58 mid-life (likely $0.46–$0.84) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.05/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.53/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 248 simulated challenges: the $12 strike is typically first touched on day 6 of 8, at $13 (overshoots $0.37). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $12.50 is $3 below CC-SS $15.26: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.01/sh (~25% of the $0.05 collected) or spot ≥ $12.57 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $12)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $12.30 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.05 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $15.26, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-8,500 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$5,033 − CC assignment net of premium (200 × $12.50): -$54,251 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-57,719 ($-49,219 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-8,519 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-49,200, the opportunity cost of earning $3,750/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $12.08 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$0, position total $-6,650 (+$1,850 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 33% normal | 123 × $11.50 | 28 Aug | 8d | 12.4% | 82%hist 87% | 37%hist 30% | +60pp | $2,091 | $7,841 | -$4,016 | $44,189 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 123 × $11.50 12.4% OTM over spot $10.23 28 Aug 2026 (8d, $0.18 mid) = $2,091 credit for the 8d cycle → $7,841/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $11.50) 82% Breach risk 18% POP (stays ≤ $11.69) 85% EV / mo +$2,978 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +60pp 100% whole by 9mo vs 40% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~0.6/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $6,130/mo median; plan ~$4,169/mo after 68% keep · $9,269 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~1.4 mo [1.0-1.9], measured ONLY among the 100% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 26% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$4,184 Free roll-up +$0/wk Safest escape (by 11 Sep 2026) $13 @ 78% POP 73% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 123 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 8); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $0.72/sh now → $0.51 mid-life (likely $0.51–$0.82) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.17/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.34/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 795 simulated challenges: the $12 strike is typically first touched on day 5 of 8, at $12 (overshoots $0.34). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $11.50 is $4 below CC-SS $15.26: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.04/sh (~25% of the $0.17 collected) or spot ≥ $11.69 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $12)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $12.30 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.05 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $15.26, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-8,500 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$5,033 − CC assignment net of premium (123 × $11.50): -$44,189 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (77 × $15): -$1,945 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-49,601 ($-41,101 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-8,519 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-41,082, the opportunity cost of earning $7,841/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $12.08 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$5,043, position total $-11,616 ($-3,116 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🎯 50% normal | 186 × $11.50 | 28 Aug | 8d | 12.4% | 82%hist 87% | 37%hist 30% | +56pp | $3,162 | $11,858 | — | $66,822 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 186 × $11.50 12.4% OTM over spot $10.23 28 Aug 2026 (8d, $0.18 mid) = $3,162 credit for the 8d cycle → $11,858/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $11.50) 82% Breach risk 18% POP (stays ≤ $11.69) 85% EV / mo +$4,504 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +56pp 100% whole by 9mo vs 44% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~0.3/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $10,275/mo median; plan ~$6,987/mo after 68% keep · $9,268 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~0.8 mo [0.7-1.2], measured ONLY among the 100% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 28% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$6,327 Free roll-up +$0/wk Safest escape (by 11 Sep 2026) $13 @ 78% POP 73% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 186 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 8); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $0.72/sh now → $0.51 mid-life (likely $0.51–$0.79) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.17/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.34/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 826 simulated challenges: the $12 strike is typically first touched on day 5 of 8, at $12 (overshoots $0.32). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $11.50 is $4 below CC-SS $15.26: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.04/sh (~25% of the $0.17 collected) or spot ≥ $11.69 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $12)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $12.30 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.05 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $15.26, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-8,500 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$5,033 − CC assignment net of premium (186 × $11.50): -$66,822 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (14 × $15): -$354 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-70,643 ($-62,143 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-8,519 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-62,124, the opportunity cost of earning $11,858/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $12.08 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$7,626, position total $-14,262 ($-5,762 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 100% normal | 144 × $10.50 | 28 Aug | 8d | 2.6% | 60%hist 69% | 83%hist 79% | +62pp | $6,336 | $23,760 | +$11,902 | $62,245 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 144 × $10.50 2.6% OTM over spot $10.23 28 Aug 2026 (8d, $0.45 mid) = $6,336 credit for the 8d cycle → $23,760/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $10.50) 60% Breach risk 40% POP (stays ≤ $10.96) 72% EV / mo +$5,199 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +62pp 100% whole by 9mo vs 38% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~0.6/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $24,640/mo median; plan ~$16,756/mo after 68% keep · $12,283 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~0.4 mo [0.3-0.6], measured ONLY among the 100% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 66% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$30 Free roll-up +$0/wk Safest escape (by 11 Sep 2026) $13 @ 91% POP 90% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 144 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 8); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $0.62/sh now → $0.44 mid-life (likely $0.59–$0.84) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.44/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.00/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 1,980 simulated challenges: the $10 strike is typically first touched on day 3 of 8, at $11 (overshoots $0.31). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $10.50 is $5 below CC-SS $15.26: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.11/sh (~25% of the $0.44 collected) or spot ≥ $10.96 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $10)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $12.30 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.05 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $15.26, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-8,500 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$5,033 − CC assignment net of premium (144 × $10.50): -$62,245 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (56 × $15): -$1,414 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-67,127 ($-58,627 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-8,519 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-58,608, the opportunity cost of earning $23,760/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $12.08 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$16,416, position total $-23,010 ($-14,510 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Every eligible strike x expiry in the 4-45 DTE band (3 expiries scanned, 7 clear the income floor), each sized to the minimum contracts that clear it. Sorted by survival (safest first): the primary 🎯 is the safest; rows below trade safety for income.
Fortress delta: 0.050 (IBKR) | Recovery@SS: +$5,033 (un-capped fortress gain if stock rallies to SS) | Do-nothing @ SS: $-8,519
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $11.50 | 8d | 28 Aug 2026 | $0.17 | 186/200 | $11,858 | $11,886 | 82% | 85% | +$4,504 | -$66,822 | 607.5% | $-70,643 (vs do-nothing $-62,124) |
| $11 | 8d | 28 Aug 2026 | $0.28 | 113/200 | $11,865 | $12,039 | 73% | 79% | +$3,691 | -$45,003 | 409.1% | $-50,668 (vs do-nothing $-42,149) |
| $11 | 15d | 4 Sep 2026 | $0.38 | 156/200 | $11,856 | $11,944 | 69% | 76% | +$1,616 | -$60,568 | 550.6% | $-65,147 (vs do-nothing $-56,628) |
| $11 | 22d | 11 Sep 2026 | $0.54 | 161/200 | $11,855 | $11,933 | 68% | 76% | +$2,706 | -$59,933 | 544.8% | $-64,386 (vs do-nothing $-55,867) |
| $10.50 | 8d | 28 Aug 2026 | $0.44 | 72/200 | $11,880 | $12,136 | 60% | 72% | +$2,600 | -$31,122 | 282.9% | $-37,823 (vs do-nothing $-29,304) |
| $10.50 | 15d | 4 Sep 2026 | $0.59 | 100/200 | $11,800 | $12,000 | 59% | 71% | +$1,896 | -$41,726 | 379.3% | $-47,719 (vs do-nothing $-39,200) |
| $10.50 | 22d | 11 Sep 2026 | $0.59 | 147/200 | $11,827 | $11,933 | 59% | 71% | +$98 | -$61,337 | 557.6% | $-66,143 (vs do-nothing $-57,624) |
Income/mo = FIGHT leg gross, DTE-prorated. Net/mo = FIGHT + conservative CC gross minus hedge cost. POP (mid) = probability stock closes at or below (strike + mid premium) at expiry, per-strike chain IV when available. Survival = CC expires fully worthless. EV/mo = premium minus expected buyback, monthly, with realized vol = IV x 85% (variance risk premium 15%). Survival, POP and touch use vol x 1.00 (raw implied: the VRP haircut is applied to the premium edge but NOT to risk, because understating the edge costs opportunity while understating breach odds costs capital; the risk-side haircut arms only from the graded ledger). Cap give-up @ SS = recovery mortgaged on a V-bounce to SS, net of premium. Total P&L @ SS = absolute position P&L if the stock closes at SS; "vs do-nothing" = opportunity cost against holding all 200 contracts at the conservative CC.