MARA-LC40 @ $12.22 UNDERWATER $28.33 (69.9% below BE SS)
⚠ EARNINGS · DO NOT SELL INCOME INTO IT
MARA reports 2026-07-29 (Wed), in 13 days. The recommended CC (15d) expires on/after it, so selling now holds a short call through the earnings gap, a report can blow past your strike overnight and cap you at a loss. Wait for the print, or sell only an expiry that closes BEFORE 2026-07-29.
200 contracts (20,000 sh) | BE SS: $40.55 | CC-SS: $14.14 | IV: HIGH | Accounts: Main:1299
LC: $40 exp 2027-01-15 (entry $0.557/sh)
Economics
| Max Loss | $11,000 | (ND $0.55 + SW $0) x 20000 |
| Normal income ref | $32,400/mo | 95% ann ROI on ML |
| Hedge (static, never rolled) | $0/mo | HP expiry = SP LEAPS; decay ≈ $0/mo (info only, already in marks) |
| Unrealized P&L | $-4,000 | fortress legs from IBKR |
INCOME GOALPOSTS & VELOCITY
50% INCOME FLOOR
$16,200/mo
HEDGE COVER
$0/mo (static)
NORMAL INCOME
$32,400/mo (ATM CC, chain)
IC VELOCITY
0.3 mo to earn back $11,000
ML VELOCITY
0.3 mo to earn back $11,000
NOT a deep drawdown: a CC at CC-SS $14.14 (probe: $14C 15d) still earns $11,600/mo (36% of normal). Sell the normal CC at/above CC-SS; a FIGHT CC below it is not needed here.
🏦 Campaign ledger: seeded, nothing tracked yet. Open short calls and banked credits appear here from the next cycle on; the banked-floor (info) shows how far premium would ratchet the floor, but the recommended CC-SS stays the pure recovery strike.
TECHNICALS (cc_timing weekly gate + daily trigger)
WEEKLYNEUTRAL · %B 57 (live) · RSI 50 · MACD bullish, hist falling
DAILYFALLING (provisional) · RSI 44 · %B 22 · hist rising (nightly)
LEVELSUpper BB (CC ceiling) $15.95 (+31%) · daily UBB $15.18 · 1-wk expected move ±$2 (chain IV)
SETUPNo tilt: engine default. (advisory; floors and picks are chain-only)
⚠ Next earnings 2026-07-29: candidates whose expiry crosses it are flagged in the spectrum; EV is unreliable across earnings.
NOT a deep drawdown. A CC at/above CC-SS $14.14 keeps this fortress whole if assigned, so there is no need to FIGHT below it. Three income options to consider, richer → safer, all at/above CC-SS. Click a card for its if-challenged roll menu.
🎯 Recommended · sell 200 × $14.50 31 Jul 2026 (15d) · richest strike still ≥80% survivalroll menu if challenged ▾
Survival (stays ≤ $14.50)
85%
Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 200 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 7 of 15); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic
Buyback gross: $1.29/sh now → $0.91 mid-life → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.24/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.67/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (200 ct) | POP / surv
of new CC |
|---|
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP.
Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened.
🛡 Safer · sell 200 × $15.50 31 Jul 2026 (15d) · higher survival, lighter premiumroll menu if challenged ▾
Survival (stays ≤ $15.50)
91%
Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 200 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 7 of 15); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic
Buyback gross: $1.43/sh now → $1.01 mid-life → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.12/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.89/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (200 ct) | POP / surv
of new CC |
|---|
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP.
Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened.
🛡 Safer · sell 200 × $18.50 24 Jul 2026 (8d) · higher survival, lighter premiumroll menu if challenged ▾
Survival (stays ≤ $18.50)
100%
Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 200 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 8); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic
Buyback gross: $1.43/sh now → $1.01 mid-life → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.01/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$1.00/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (200 ct) | POP / surv
of new CC |
|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$18 | 31 Jul 2026 | 11d left | +$0.54/sh | +$10,747 cycle +$10,947 | 69% surv 54% |
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$20 | 31 Jul 2026 | 11d left | +$0.00/sh | +$73 cycle +$273 | 76% surv 67% |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$20 | 31 Jul 2026 | 11d left | +$0.00/sh | +$73 cycle +$273 | 76% surv 67% |
| SS $41 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder |
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP.
Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened.
⚔ FIGHT CC options · full candidate scan (8 clear the floor), click to expand
Every eligible strike x expiry in the 4-45 DTE band (2 expiries scanned, 8 clear the income floor), each sized to the minimum contracts that clear it. Sorted by survival (safest first): the primary 🎯 is the safest; rows below trade safety for income.
Fortress delta: 0.900 (fallback) | Recovery@SS: +$34,577 (un-capped fortress gain if stock rallies to SS) | Do-nothing @ SS: $30,977
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|
| $13.50 | 8d | 24 Jul 2026 | $0.26 | 167/200 | $16,283 | $16,414 | 80% | 84% | +$7,149 | -$6,362 | 57.8% | $24,281 (vs do-nothing $-6,696) |
| $13.50 | 15d | 31 Jul 2026 | $0.44 | 185/200 | $16,280 | $16,340 | 74% | 81% | +$5,322 | -$3,717 | 33.8% | $26,890 (vs do-nothing $-4,087) |
| $13 | 8d | 24 Jul 2026 | $0.40 | 108/200 | $16,200 | $16,568 | 70% | 78% | +$5,864 | -$8,002 | 72.7% | $22,759 (vs do-nothing $-8,218) |
| $13 | 15d | 31 Jul 2026 | $0.61 | 133/200 | $16,226 | $16,494 | 67% | 76% | +$4,757 | -$7,061 | 64.2% | $23,649 (vs do-nothing $-7,327) |
| $12.50 | 8d | 24 Jul 2026 | $0.59 | 74/200 | $16,372 | $16,876 | 59% | 72% | +$4,679 | -$7,777 | 70.7% | $23,052 (vs do-nothing $-7,925) |
| $12.50 | 15d | 31 Jul 2026 | $0.80 | 102/200 | $16,320 | $16,712 | 59% | 72% | +$3,749 | -$8,578 | 78.0% | $22,195 (vs do-nothing $-8,782) |
| $12 | 15d | 31 Jul 2026 | $1.03 | 79/200 | $16,274 | $16,758 | 50% | 68% | +$2,722 | -$8,776 | 79.8% | $22,042 (vs do-nothing $-8,934) |
| $12 | 8d | 24 Jul 2026 | $0.82 | 53/200 | $16,298 | $16,886 | 47% | 67% | +$3,258 | -$7,001 | 63.6% | $23,870 (vs do-nothing $-7,107) |
Income/mo = FIGHT leg gross, DTE-prorated. Net/mo = FIGHT + conservative CC gross minus hedge cost. POP (mid) = probability stock closes at or below (strike + mid premium) at expiry, per-strike chain IV when available. Survival = CC expires fully worthless. EV/mo = premium minus expected buyback, monthly, with realized vol = IV x 85% (variance risk premium 15%). Cap give-up @ SS = recovery mortgaged on a V-bounce to SS, net of premium. Total P&L @ SS = absolute position P&L if the stock closes at SS; "vs do-nothing" = opportunity cost against holding all 200 contracts at the conservative CC.