MARA-LC40 @ $12.09 UNDERWATER $28.46 (70.2% below BE SS)
⚠ EARNINGS · DO NOT SELL INCOME INTO IT
MARA reports 2026-07-29 (Wed), in 13 days. The recommended CC (22d) expires on/after it, so selling now holds a short call through the earnings gap, a report can blow past your strike overnight and cap you at a loss. Wait for the print, or sell only an expiry that closes BEFORE 2026-07-29.
200 contracts (20,000 sh) | BE SS: $40.55 | CC-SS: $14.00 | IV: HIGH | Accounts: Main:1299
LC: $40 exp 2027-01-15 (entry $0.557/sh)
Economics
| Max Loss | $11,000 | (ND $0.55 + SW $0) x 20000 |
| Normal income ref | $37,600/mo | 95% ann ROI on ML |
| Hedge (static, never rolled) | $0/mo | HP expiry = SP LEAPS; decay ≈ $0/mo (info only, already in marks) |
| Unrealized P&L | $-4,000 | fortress legs from IBKR |
INCOME GOALPOSTS & VELOCITY
50% INCOME FLOOR
$18,800/mo
HEDGE COVER
$0/mo (static)
NORMAL INCOME
$37,600/mo (ATM CC, chain)
IC VELOCITY
0.3 mo to earn back $11,000
ML VELOCITY
0.3 mo to earn back $11,000
NOT a deep drawdown: a CC at CC-SS $14.00 (probe: $14C 15d) still earns $11,600/mo (31% of normal). Sell the normal CC at/above CC-SS; a FIGHT CC below it is not needed here.
🏦 Campaign ledger: seeded, nothing tracked yet. Open short calls and banked credits appear here from the next cycle on; the banked-floor (info) shows how far premium would ratchet the floor, but the recommended CC-SS stays the pure recovery strike.
TECHNICALS (cc_timing weekly gate + daily trigger)
WEEKLYNEUTRAL · %B 55 (live) · RSI 50 · MACD bullish, hist falling
DAILYFALLING (provisional) · RSI 43 · %B 19 · hist rising (nightly)
LEVELSUpper BB (CC ceiling) $15.95 (+32%) · daily UBB $15.19 · 1-wk expected move ±$1 (chain IV)
SETUPNo tilt: engine default. (advisory; floors and picks are chain-only)
⚠ Next earnings 2026-07-29: candidates whose expiry crosses it are flagged in the spectrum; EV is unreliable across earnings.
NOT a deep drawdown. A CC at/above CC-SS $14.00 keeps this fortress whole if assigned, so there is no need to FIGHT below it. Three income options to consider, richer → safer, all at/above CC-SS. Click a card for its if-challenged roll menu.
🎯 Recommended · sell 200 × $14.50 7 Aug 2026 (22d) · richest strike still ≥80% survivalroll menu if challenged ▾
Survival (stays ≤ $14.50)
81%
Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 200 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 11 of 22); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic
Buyback gross: $1.82/sh now → $1.29 mid-life → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.42/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.87/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (200 ct) | POP / surv
of new CC |
|---|
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP.
Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened.
🛡 Safer · sell 200 × $16 7 Aug 2026 (22d) · higher survival, lighter premiumroll menu if challenged ▾
Survival (stays ≤ $16)
90%
Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 200 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 11 of 22); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic
Buyback gross: $2.12/sh now → $1.50 mid-life → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.16/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$1.34/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (200 ct) | POP / surv
of new CC |
|---|
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP.
Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened.
🛡 Safer · sell 200 × $22 31 Jul 2026 (15d) · higher survival, lighter premiumroll menu if challenged ▾
Survival (stays ≤ $22)
100%
Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 200 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 7 of 15); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic
Buyback gross: $2.78/sh now → $1.97 mid-life → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.02/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$1.95/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (200 ct) | POP / surv
of new CC |
|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$22 | 7 Aug 2026 | 14d left | +$0.67/sh | +$13,347 cycle +$13,747 | 71% surv 55% |
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$23 | 7 Aug 2026 | 14d left | +$0.27/sh | +$5,350 cycle +$5,750 | 74% surv 61% |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$23 | 7 Aug 2026 | 14d left | +$0.27/sh | +$5,350 cycle +$5,750 | 74% surv 61% |
| SS $41 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder |
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP.
Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened.
⚔ FIGHT CC options · full candidate scan (10 clear the floor), click to expand
Every eligible strike x expiry in the 4-45 DTE band (3 expiries scanned, 10 clear the income floor), each sized to the minimum contracts that clear it. Sorted by survival (safest first): the primary 🎯 is the safest; rows below trade safety for income.
Fortress delta: 0.900 (fallback) | Recovery@SS: +$34,468 (un-capped fortress gain if stock rallies to SS) | Do-nothing @ SS: $30,868
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|
| $13.50 | 8d | 24 Jul 2026 | $0.26 | 193/200 | $18,818 | $18,846 | 82% | 85% | +$9,812 | -$4,727 | 43.0% | $25,756 (vs do-nothing $-5,113) |
| $13 | 8d | 24 Jul 2026 | $0.40 | 126/200 | $18,900 | $19,196 | 73% | 80% | +$8,532 | -$7,622 | 69.3% | $22,995 (vs do-nothing $-7,874) |
| $13 | 15d | 31 Jul 2026 | $0.61 | 155/200 | $18,910 | $19,090 | 69% | 78% | +$6,605 | -$6,121 | 55.6% | $24,437 (vs do-nothing $-6,431) |
| $13 | 22d | 7 Aug 2026 | $0.85 | 163/200 | $18,893 | $19,041 | 67% | 76% | +$5,883 | -$2,525 | 23.0% | $28,017 (vs do-nothing $-2,851) |
| $12.50 | 8d | 24 Jul 2026 | $0.59 | 85/200 | $18,806 | $19,266 | 63% | 75% | +$7,161 | -$7,777 | 70.7% | $22,922 (vs do-nothing $-7,947) |
| $12.50 | 15d | 31 Jul 2026 | $0.80 | 118/200 | $18,880 | $19,208 | 61% | 74% | +$5,738 | -$8,318 | 75.6% | $22,314 (vs do-nothing $-8,554) |
| $12.50 | 22d | 7 Aug 2026 | $1.05 | 132/200 | $18,900 | $19,172 | 60% | 74% | +$5,236 | -$6,005 | 54.6% | $24,600 (vs do-nothing $-6,269) |
| $12 | 22d | 7 Aug 2026 | $1.28 | 108/200 | $18,851 | $19,219 | 53% | 71% | +$4,502 | -$7,829 | 71.2% | $22,823 (vs do-nothing $-8,045) |
| $12 | 15d | 31 Jul 2026 | $1.03 | 92/200 | $18,952 | $19,384 | 52% | 70% | +$4,518 | -$8,969 | 81.5% | $21,715 (vs do-nothing $-9,153) |
| $12 | 8d | 24 Jul 2026 | $0.82 | 62/200 | $19,065 | $19,617 | 50% | 70% | +$5,486 | -$7,346 | 66.8% | $23,398 (vs do-nothing $-7,470) |
Income/mo = FIGHT leg gross, DTE-prorated. Net/mo = FIGHT + conservative CC gross minus hedge cost. POP (mid) = probability stock closes at or below (strike + mid premium) at expiry, per-strike chain IV when available. Survival = CC expires fully worthless. EV/mo = premium minus expected buyback, monthly, with realized vol = IV x 85% (variance risk premium 15%). Cap give-up @ SS = recovery mortgaged on a V-bounce to SS, net of premium. Total P&L @ SS = absolute position P&L if the stock closes at SS; "vs do-nothing" = opportunity cost against holding all 200 contracts at the conservative CC.