200 contracts (20,000 sh) | BE SS: $40.55 | CC-SS: $14.44 | IV: HIGH | Accounts: Main:1299
| Max Loss | $11,000 | (ND $0.55 + SW $0) x 20000 |
| Normal income ref | $35,200/mo | 95% ann ROI on ML |
| Hedge (static, never rolled) | $0/mo | HP expiry = SP LEAPS; decay ≈ $0/mo (info only, already in marks) |
| Unrealized P&L | $-4,900 | fortress legs from IBKR |
Each Friday gets its own recommended pick and full income ladder (safest strike per income rung, sized across your 200 contracts). The master ranks the two by E[net]/mo to pick one grand pick; both are shown here so you can choose the tenor that fits your roll cadence.
| Track | Expiry | Sell | Survival | Income/mo | E[net]/mo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NEXT FRIDAY 🏆 | 24 Jul 2026 · 8d | 135 × $13 | 74% | $17,719 | $4,379 |
| Rung | Sell | Expiry | DTE | OTM | Survival | Touch odds | Per cycle | Income/mo | Δ vs pick | Cap give-up | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| ▸ | 🛡 safe yield | 200 × $14.50 | 24 Jul | 8d | 20.5% | 92% | 17% | $1,400 | $5,250 | -$12,469 | $0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 200 × $14.50 20.5% OTM over spot $12.03 24 Jul 2026 (8d, $0.11 mid) = $1,400 credit for the 8d cycle → $5,250/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $14.50) 92% Breach risk 8% POP (stays ≤ $14.61) 92% EV / mo +$2,068 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 0.8 mo [0.4-1.9] median, 0.2 mo faster than no FIGHT (1.0 mo) · 94% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 72% without) · ~0.8 challenges expected · median CC cash $4,146 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 12% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$13,620 Free roll-up +$0/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $15 @ 71% POP 61% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 200 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 8); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $1.06/sh now → $0.75 mid-life (likely $0.55–$1.04) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.07/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.68/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 347 simulated challenges: the $14 strike is typically first touched on day 6 of 8, at $15 (overshoots $0.37). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ✓ $14.50 is at/above CC-SS $14.44: assignment is break-even or better.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.02/sh (~25% of the $0.07 collected) or spot ≥ $14.61 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $14)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $15.19 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.10 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $14.44, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-4,900 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$4,587 − CC assignment net of premium (200 × $14.50): -$0 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-313 (+$4,587 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $87 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-400, the opportunity cost of earning $5,250/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $15.95 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$27,600, position total $-25,052 ($-20,152 vs today) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 33% normal ← lean | 141 × $13.50 | 24 Jul | 8d | 12.2% | 82% | 38% | $3,102 | $11,632 | -$6,086 | $10,212 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 141 × $13.50 12.2% OTM over spot $12.03 24 Jul 2026 (8d, $0.25 mid) = $3,102 credit for the 8d cycle → $11,632/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $13.50) 82% Breach risk 18% POP (stays ≤ $13.75) 85% EV / mo +$4,822 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 0.4 mo [0.2-0.7] median, 0.6 mo faster than no FIGHT (1.0 mo) · 100% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 77% without) · ~0.6 challenges expected · median CC cash $5,226 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 28% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$6,357 Free roll-up none Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $14 @ 76% POP 69% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 141 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 8); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $0.95/sh now → $0.67 mid-life (likely $0.68–$1.06) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.22/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.45/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 838 simulated challenges: the $14 strike is typically first touched on day 5 of 8, at $14 (overshoots $0.38). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $13.50 is $1 below CC-SS $14.44: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.06/sh (~25% of the $0.22 collected) or spot ≥ $13.75 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $14)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $15.19 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.10 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $14.44, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-4,900 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$4,587 − CC assignment net of premium (141 × $13.50): -$10,212 + Conservative CC premium (59 × $20): +$118 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-10,407 ($-5,507 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $87 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-10,494, the opportunity cost of earning $11,632/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $15.95 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$31,443, position total $-28,777 ($-23,877 vs today) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🎯 50% normal | 135 × $13 | 24 Jul | 8d | 8.1% | 74% | 42% | $4,725 | $17,719 | — | $14,773 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 135 × $13 8.1% OTM over spot $12.03 24 Jul 2026 (8d, $0.35 mid) = $4,725 credit for the 8d cycle → $17,719/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $13) 74% Breach risk 26% POP (stays ≤ $13.36) 80% EV / mo +$6,559 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 0.3 mo [0.1-0.5] median, 0.8 mo faster than no FIGHT (1.1 mo) · 100% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 78% without) · ~0.7 challenges expected · median CC cash $6,198 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 42% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$3,812 Free roll-up none Safest escape (by 7 Aug 2026) $15 @ 81% POP 77% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 135 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 8); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $0.89/sh now → $0.63 mid-life (likely $0.72–$1.05) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.35/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.28/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 1,250 simulated challenges: the $13 strike is typically first touched on day 4 of 8, at $13 (overshoots $0.37). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $13 is $1 below CC-SS $14.44: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.09/sh (~25% of the $0.35 collected) or spot ≥ $13.36 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $13)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $15.19 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.10 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $14.44, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-4,900 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$4,587 − CC assignment net of premium (135 × $13): -$14,773 + Conservative CC premium (65 × $20): +$130 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-14,955 ($-10,055 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $87 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-15,043, the opportunity cost of earning $17,719/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $15.95 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$35,100, position total $-32,422 ($-27,522 vs today) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 100% normal | 192 × $12.50 | 24 Jul | 8d | 3.9% | 64% | 76% | $9,408 | $35,280 | +$17,561 | $27,922 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 192 × $12.50 3.9% OTM over spot $12.03 24 Jul 2026 (8d, $0.52 mid) = $9,408 credit for the 8d cycle → $35,280/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $12.50) 64% Breach risk 36% POP (stays ≤ $13.02) 74% EV / mo +$9,092 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 0.1 mo [0.1-0.3] median, 0.9 mo faster than no FIGHT (1.0 mo) · 100% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 78% without) · ~0.7 challenges expected · median CC cash $9,461 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 62% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$2,016 Free roll-up none Safest escape (by 7 Aug 2026) $16 @ 92% POP 91% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 192 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 8); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $0.84/sh now → $0.59 mid-life (likely $0.77–$1.07) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.49/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.10/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 1,860 simulated challenges: the $12 strike is typically first touched on day 3 of 8, at $13 (overshoots $0.35). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $12.50 is $2 below CC-SS $14.44: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.12/sh (~25% of the $0.49 collected) or spot ≥ $13.02 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $12)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $15.19 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.10 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $14.44, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-4,900 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$4,587 − CC assignment net of premium (192 × $12.50): -$27,922 + Conservative CC premium (8 × $20): +$16 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-28,219 ($-23,319 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $87 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-28,306, the opportunity cost of earning $35,280/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $15.95 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$56,832, position total $-54,268 ($-49,368 vs today) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Every eligible strike x expiry in the 4-45 DTE band (3 expiries scanned, 8 clear the income floor), each sized to the minimum contracts that clear it. Sorted by survival (safest first): the primary 🎯 is the safest; rows below trade safety for income.
Fortress delta: 0.095 (IBKR) | Recovery@SS: +$4,587 (un-capped fortress gain if stock rallies to SS) | Do-nothing @ SS: $87
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $13 | 8d | 24 Jul 2026 | $0.35 | 135/200 | $17,719 | $17,979 | 74% | 80% | +$6,559 | -$14,773 | 134.3% | $-14,955 (vs do-nothing $-15,043) |
| $13 | 15d | 31 Jul 2026 | $0.47 | 188/200 | $17,672 | $17,720 | 70% | 77% | +$3,837 | -$18,316 | 166.5% | $-18,605 (vs do-nothing $-18,692) |
| $12.50 | 8d | 24 Jul 2026 | $0.49 | 96/200 | $17,640 | $18,056 | 64% | 74% | +$4,546 | -$13,961 | 126.9% | $-14,066 (vs do-nothing $-14,153) |
| $12.50 | 15d | 31 Jul 2026 | $0.63 | 140/200 | $17,640 | $17,880 | 62% | 74% | +$2,671 | -$18,400 | 167.3% | $-18,593 (vs do-nothing $-18,680) |
| $12.50 | 22d | 7 Aug 2026 | $0.65 | 199/200 | $17,639 | $17,643 | 61% | 73% | $-2,196 | -$25,756 | 234.1% | $-26,067 (vs do-nothing $-26,154) |
| $12 | 22d | 7 Aug 2026 | $0.99 | 131/200 | $17,685 | $17,961 | 54% | 70% | +$867 | -$19,051 | 173.2% | $-19,226 (vs do-nothing $-19,313) |
| $12 | 15d | 31 Jul 2026 | $0.91 | 97/200 | $17,654 | $18,066 | 53% | 70% | +$2,985 | -$14,882 | 135.3% | $-14,989 (vs do-nothing $-15,076) |
| $12 | 8d | 24 Jul 2026 | $0.70 | 68/200 | $17,850 | $18,378 | 52% | 69% | +$3,272 | -$11,861 | 107.8% | $-11,910 (vs do-nothing $-11,997) |
Income/mo = FIGHT leg gross, DTE-prorated. Net/mo = FIGHT + conservative CC gross minus hedge cost. POP (mid) = probability stock closes at or below (strike + mid premium) at expiry, per-strike chain IV when available. Survival = CC expires fully worthless. EV/mo = premium minus expected buyback, monthly, with realized vol = IV x 85% (variance risk premium 15%). Cap give-up @ SS = recovery mortgaged on a V-bounce to SS, net of premium. Total P&L @ SS = absolute position P&L if the stock closes at SS; "vs do-nothing" = opportunity cost against holding all 200 contracts at the conservative CC.