MARA-LC40 @ $11.48 UNDERWATER $29.06 (71.7% below BE SS)
⚠ EARNINGS · DO NOT SELL INCOME INTO IT
MARA reports 2026-07-29 (Wed), in 12 days. The recommended CC (28d) expires on/after it, so selling now holds a short call through the earnings gap, a report can blow past your strike overnight and cap you at a loss. Wait for the print, or sell only an expiry that closes BEFORE 2026-07-29.
200 contracts (20,000 sh) | BE SS: $40.55 | CC-SS: $13.82 | IV: HIGH | Accounts: Main:1299
LC: $40 exp 2027-01-15 (entry $0.557/sh)
Economics
| Max Loss | $11,000 | (ND $0.55 + SW $0) x 20000 |
| Normal income ref | $34,286/mo | 95% ann ROI on ML |
| Hedge (static, never rolled) | $0/mo | HP expiry = SP LEAPS; decay ≈ $0/mo (info only, already in marks) |
| Unrealized P&L | $-4,700 | fortress legs from IBKR |
INCOME GOALPOSTS & VELOCITY
50% INCOME FLOOR
$17,143/mo
HEDGE COVER
$0/mo (static)
NORMAL INCOME
$34,286/mo (ATM CC, chain)
IC VELOCITY
0.3 mo to earn back $11,000
ML VELOCITY
0.3 mo to earn back $11,000
NOT a deep drawdown: a CC at CC-SS $13.82 (probe: $14C 14d) still earns $7,714/mo (22% of normal). Sell the normal CC at/above CC-SS; a FIGHT CC below it is not needed here.
🏦 Campaign ledger: seeded, nothing tracked yet. Open short calls and banked credits appear here from the next cycle on; the banked-floor (info) shows how far premium would ratchet the floor, but the recommended CC-SS stays the pure recovery strike.
TECHNICALS (cc_timing weekly gate + daily trigger)
WEEKLYNEUTRAL · %B 49 (live) · RSI 47 · MACD bullish, hist falling
DAILYFALLING (provisional) · RSI 40 · %B 12 · hist falling (nightly)
LEVELSUpper BB (CC ceiling) $15.89 (+38%) · daily UBB $15.25 · 1-wk expected move ±$1 (chain IV)
SETUPNo tilt: engine default. (advisory; floors and picks are chain-only)
⚠ Next earnings 2026-07-29: candidates whose expiry crosses it are flagged in the spectrum; EV is unreliable across earnings.
NOT a deep drawdown. A CC at/above CC-SS $13.82 keeps this fortress whole if assigned, so there is no need to FIGHT below it. Three income options to consider, richer → safer, all at/above CC-SS. Click a card for its if-challenged roll menu.
🎯 Recommended · sell 200 × $14 14 Aug 2026 (28d) · richest strike still ≥80% survivalroll menu if challenged ▾
Survival (stays ≤ $14)
81%
Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 200 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 14 of 28); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic
Buyback gross: $1.79/sh now → $1.27 mid-life → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.44/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.83/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (200 ct) | POP / surv
of new CC |
|---|
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP.
Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened.
🛡 Safer · sell 200 × $15 7 Aug 2026 (21d) · higher survival, lighter premiumroll menu if challenged ▾
Survival (stays ≤ $15)
90%
Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 200 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 10 of 21); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic
Buyback gross: $1.73/sh now → $1.22 mid-life (likely $0.93–$1.59) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.20/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$1.02/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours
📊 Across 491 simulated challenges: the $15 strike is typically first touched on day 14 of 21, at $15 (overshoots $0.45). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (200 ct) | POP / surv
of new CC |
|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$15 | 14 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$0.18/sh | +$3,602 cycle +$7,602 [+$2,588…+$7,056] · 100% credit | 69% surv 55% |
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$16 | 14 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$0.04/sh | +$777 cycle +$4,777 [-$302…+$3,740] · 69% credit | 72% surv 60% |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$16 | 14 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$0.04/sh | +$777 cycle +$4,777 [-$302…+$3,740] · 69% credit | 72% surv 60% |
| SS $41 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder |
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$16 | 14 Aug 2026 | 18d left | -$0.16/sh | -$3,262 cycle +$738 [-$4,833…-$678] · 20% credit | 74% surv 65% |
| budget: banked $4,000 debit $3,262 (82% used ≈ 2.5 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$738 cash · rolled 200 ct earn ≈ $35,297/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell |
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP.
Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened.
🛡 Safer · sell 200 × $18.50 24 Jul 2026 (7d) · higher survival, lighter premiumroll menu if challenged ▾
Survival (stays ≤ $18.50)
100%
Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 200 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 7); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic
Buyback gross: $1.36/sh now → $0.96 mid-life → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.01/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.95/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (200 ct) | POP / surv
of new CC |
|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$18 | 31 Jul 2026 | 10d left | +$0.53/sh | +$10,556 cycle +$10,756 | 69% surv 54% |
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$20 | 31 Jul 2026 | 10d left | +$0.02/sh | +$500 cycle +$700 | 77% surv 69% |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$23 | 14 Aug 2026 | 24d left | +$0.12/sh | +$2,478 cycle +$2,678 | 81% surv 77% |
| SS $41 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder |
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP.
Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened.
⚔ FIGHT CC options · full candidate scan (12 clear the floor), click to expand
Every eligible strike x expiry in the 4-45 DTE band (4 expiries scanned, 12 clear the income floor), each sized to the minimum contracts that clear it. Sorted by survival (safest first): the primary 🎯 is the safest; rows below trade safety for income.
Fortress delta: 0.096 (IBKR) | Recovery@SS: +$4,488 (un-capped fortress gain if stock rallies to SS) | Do-nothing @ SS: $-12
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|
| $12.50 | 7d | 24 Jul 2026 | $0.26 | 154/200 | $17,160 | $17,259 | 76% | 81% | +$5,923 | -$16,364 | 148.8% | $-16,530 (vs do-nothing $-16,518) |
| $12.50 | 14d | 31 Jul 2026 | $0.45 | 178/200 | $17,164 | $17,211 | 71% | 78% | +$4,832 | -$15,532 | 141.2% | $-15,722 (vs do-nothing $-15,710) |
| $12.50 | 21d | 7 Aug 2026 | $0.69 | 174/200 | $17,151 | $17,207 | 69% | 77% | +$4,690 | -$11,007 | 100.1% | $-11,193 (vs do-nothing $-11,181) |
| $12.50 | 28d | 14 Aug 2026 | $0.83 | 193/200 | $17,163 | $17,178 | 67% | 76% | +$3,906 | -$9,507 | 86.4% | $-9,712 (vs do-nothing $-9,700) |
| $12 | 7d | 24 Jul 2026 | $0.40 | 100/200 | $17,143 | $17,357 | 66% | 75% | +$4,199 | -$14,226 | 129.3% | $-14,338 (vs do-nothing $-14,326) |
| $12 | 14d | 31 Jul 2026 | $0.61 | 132/200 | $17,254 | $17,400 | 63% | 74% | +$3,751 | -$16,006 | 145.5% | $-16,150 (vs do-nothing $-16,138) |
| $12 | 21d | 7 Aug 2026 | $0.78 | 154/200 | $17,160 | $17,259 | 62% | 73% | +$2,525 | -$16,056 | 146.0% | $-16,222 (vs do-nothing $-16,210) |
| $12 | 28d | 14 Aug 2026 | $1.02 | 157/200 | $17,158 | $17,250 | 62% | 73% | +$3,470 | -$12,600 | 114.5% | $-12,769 (vs do-nothing $-12,757) |
| $11.50 | 28d | 14 Aug 2026 | $1.17 | 137/200 | $17,174 | $17,309 | 55% | 70% | +$2,170 | -$15,790 | 143.5% | $-15,939 (vs do-nothing $-15,927) |
| $11.50 | 21d | 7 Aug 2026 | $1.00 | 121/200 | $17,286 | $17,455 | 55% | 70% | +$2,219 | -$16,003 | 145.5% | $-16,136 (vs do-nothing $-16,124) |
| $11.50 | 14d | 31 Jul 2026 | $0.80 | 100/200 | $17,143 | $17,357 | 54% | 69% | +$2,415 | -$15,226 | 138.4% | $-15,338 (vs do-nothing $-15,326) |
| $11.50 | 7d | 24 Jul 2026 | $0.61 | 66/200 | $17,254 | $17,541 | 53% | 68% | +$3,084 | -$11,303 | 102.8% | $-11,381 (vs do-nothing $-11,369) |
Income/mo = FIGHT leg gross, DTE-prorated. Net/mo = FIGHT + conservative CC gross minus hedge cost. POP (mid) = probability stock closes at or below (strike + mid premium) at expiry, per-strike chain IV when available. Survival = CC expires fully worthless. EV/mo = premium minus expected buyback, monthly, with realized vol = IV x 85% (variance risk premium 15%). Cap give-up @ SS = recovery mortgaged on a V-bounce to SS, net of premium. Total P&L @ SS = absolute position P&L if the stock closes at SS; "vs do-nothing" = opportunity cost against holding all 200 contracts at the conservative CC.