MARA-LC40 @ $11.49 UNDERWATER $29.06 (71.7% below BE SS)
⚠ EARNINGS · DO NOT SELL INCOME INTO IT
MARA reports 2026-07-29 (Wed), in 12 days. The recommended CC (28d) expires on/after it, so selling now holds a short call through the earnings gap, a report can blow past your strike overnight and cap you at a loss. Wait for the print, or sell only an expiry that closes BEFORE 2026-07-29.
200 contracts (20,000 sh) | BE SS: $40.55 | CC-SS: $13.86 | IV: HIGH | Accounts: Main:1299
LC: $40 exp 2027-01-15 (entry $0.557/sh)
Economics
| Max Loss | $11,000 | (ND $0.55 + SW $0) x 20000 |
| Normal income ref | $35,571/mo | 95% ann ROI on ML |
| Hedge (static, never rolled) | $0/mo | HP expiry = SP LEAPS; decay ≈ $0/mo (info only, already in marks) |
| Unrealized P&L | $-4,800 | fortress legs from IBKR |
INCOME GOALPOSTS & VELOCITY
50% INCOME FLOOR
$17,786/mo
HEDGE COVER
$0/mo (static)
NORMAL INCOME
$35,571/mo (ATM CC, chain)
IC VELOCITY
0.3 mo to earn back $11,000
ML VELOCITY
0.3 mo to earn back $11,000
NOT a deep drawdown: a CC at CC-SS $13.86 (probe: $14C 14d) still earns $7,286/mo (20% of normal). Sell the normal CC at/above CC-SS; a FIGHT CC below it is not needed here.
🏦 Campaign ledger: seeded, nothing tracked yet. Open short calls and banked credits appear here from the next cycle on; the banked-floor (info) shows how far premium would ratchet the floor, but the recommended CC-SS stays the pure recovery strike.
TECHNICALS (cc_timing weekly gate + daily trigger)
WEEKLYNEUTRAL · %B 49 (live) · RSI 47 · MACD bullish, hist falling
DAILYFALLING (provisional) · RSI 39 · %B 12 · hist rising (nightly)
LEVELSUpper BB (CC ceiling) $15.90 (+38%) · daily UBB $15.24 · 1-wk expected move ±$1 (chain IV)
SETUPNo tilt: engine default. (advisory; floors and picks are chain-only)
⚠ Next earnings 2026-07-29: candidates whose expiry crosses it are flagged in the spectrum; EV is unreliable across earnings.
NOT a deep drawdown. A CC at/above CC-SS $13.86 keeps this fortress whole if assigned, so there is no need to FIGHT below it. Three income options to consider, richer → safer, all at/above CC-SS. Click a card for its if-challenged roll menu.
🎯 Recommended · sell 200 × $14 14 Aug 2026 (28d) · richest strike still ≥80% survivalroll menu if challenged ▾
Survival (stays ≤ $14)
81%
Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 200 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 14 of 28); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic
Buyback gross: $1.80/sh now → $1.27 mid-life → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.48/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.79/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (200 ct) | POP / surv
of new CC |
|---|
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP.
Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened.
🛡 Safer · sell 200 × $16 14 Aug 2026 (28d) · higher survival, lighter premiumroll menu if challenged ▾
Survival (stays ≤ $16)
90%
Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 200 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 14 of 28); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic
Buyback gross: $2.22/sh now → $1.58 mid-life → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.14/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$1.44/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (200 ct) | POP / surv
of new CC |
|---|
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP.
Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened.
🛡 Safer · sell 200 × $18.50 24 Jul 2026 (7d) · higher survival, lighter premiumroll menu if challenged ▾
Survival (stays ≤ $18.50)
100%
Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 200 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 7); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic
Buyback gross: $1.41/sh now → $1.00 mid-life → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.01/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.99/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (200 ct) | POP / surv
of new CC |
|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$18 | 31 Jul 2026 | 10d left | +$0.55/sh | +$10,951 cycle +$11,151 | 69% surv 54% |
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$20 | 31 Jul 2026 | 10d left | +$0.17/sh | +$3,351 cycle +$3,551 | 74% surv 64% |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$22 | 14 Aug 2026 | 24d left | +$0.20/sh | +$3,990 cycle +$4,190 | 80% surv 75% |
| SS $41 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder |
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP.
Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened.
⚔ FIGHT CC options · full candidate scan (11 clear the floor), click to expand
Every eligible strike x expiry in the 4-45 DTE band (4 expiries scanned, 11 clear the income floor), each sized to the minimum contracts that clear it. Sorted by survival (safest first): the primary 🎯 is the safest; rows below trade safety for income.
Fortress delta: 0.096 (IBKR) | Recovery@SS: +$4,556 (un-capped fortress gain if stock rallies to SS) | Do-nothing @ SS: $-44
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|
| $12.50 | 7d | 24 Jul 2026 | $0.26 | 160/200 | $17,829 | $17,914 | 77% | 82% | +$6,998 | -$17,649 | 160.4% | $-17,853 (vs do-nothing $-17,809) |
| $12.50 | 14d | 31 Jul 2026 | $0.46 | 181/200 | $17,841 | $17,882 | 71% | 78% | +$5,367 | -$16,346 | 148.6% | $-16,571 (vs do-nothing $-16,527) |
| $12.50 | 21d | 7 Aug 2026 | $0.67 | 186/200 | $17,803 | $17,833 | 69% | 77% | +$4,360 | -$12,891 | 117.2% | $-13,121 (vs do-nothing $-13,077) |
| $12 | 7d | 24 Jul 2026 | $0.40 | 104/200 | $17,829 | $18,034 | 66% | 75% | +$5,161 | -$15,216 | 138.3% | $-15,364 (vs do-nothing $-15,320) |
| $12 | 14d | 31 Jul 2026 | $0.62 | 134/200 | $17,803 | $17,944 | 63% | 74% | +$4,115 | -$16,657 | 151.4% | $-16,835 (vs do-nothing $-16,791) |
| $12 | 21d | 7 Aug 2026 | $0.85 | 147/200 | $17,850 | $17,964 | 62% | 73% | +$3,749 | -$14,892 | 135.4% | $-15,083 (vs do-nothing $-15,039) |
| $12 | 28d | 14 Aug 2026 | $1.02 | 163/200 | $17,814 | $17,893 | 62% | 73% | +$3,658 | -$13,742 | 124.9% | $-13,949 (vs do-nothing $-13,905) |
| $11.50 | 28d | 14 Aug 2026 | $1.19 | 140/200 | $17,850 | $17,979 | 55% | 70% | +$2,599 | -$16,423 | 149.3% | $-16,607 (vs do-nothing $-16,563) |
| $11.50 | 21d | 7 Aug 2026 | $1.05 | 119/200 | $17,850 | $18,024 | 55% | 70% | +$2,893 | -$15,626 | 142.1% | $-15,788 (vs do-nothing $-15,745) |
| $11.50 | 14d | 31 Jul 2026 | $0.83 | 101/200 | $17,964 | $18,176 | 54% | 69% | +$3,088 | -$15,484 | 140.8% | $-15,629 (vs do-nothing $-15,585) |
| $11.50 | 7d | 24 Jul 2026 | $0.60 | 70/200 | $18,000 | $18,279 | 53% | 69% | +$3,520 | -$12,342 | 112.2% | $-12,455 (vs do-nothing $-12,412) |
Income/mo = FIGHT leg gross, DTE-prorated. Net/mo = FIGHT + conservative CC gross minus hedge cost. POP (mid) = probability stock closes at or below (strike + mid premium) at expiry, per-strike chain IV when available. Survival = CC expires fully worthless. EV/mo = premium minus expected buyback, monthly, with realized vol = IV x 85% (variance risk premium 15%). Cap give-up @ SS = recovery mortgaged on a V-bounce to SS, net of premium. Total P&L @ SS = absolute position P&L if the stock closes at SS; "vs do-nothing" = opportunity cost against holding all 200 contracts at the conservative CC.