200 contracts (20,000 sh) | BE SS: $40.55 | CC-SS: $40.55 | IV: HIGH | Accounts: Main:1299
| Max Loss | $11,000 | (ND $0.55 + SW $0) x 20000 |
| Normal income ref | $35,571/mo | 95% ann ROI on ML |
| Hedge (static, never rolled) | $0/mo | HP expiry = SP LEAPS; decay ≈ $0/mo (info only, already in marks) |
Each Friday gets its own recommended pick and full income ladder (safest strike per income rung, sized across your 200 contracts). The master ranks the two by E[net]/mo to pick one grand pick; both are shown here so you can choose the tenor that fits your roll cadence.
| Track | Expiry | Sell | Survival | Income/mo | E[net]/mo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NEXT FRIDAY 🏆 | 24 Jul 2026 · 7d | 160 × $12.50 | 77% | $17,829 | $4,907 |
| Rung | Sell | Expiry | DTE | OTM | Survival | Touch odds | FIGHT edge | Per cycle | Income/mo | Δ vs pick | Cap give-up | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| ▸ | 🛡 safe yield | 200 × $13.50 | 24 Jul | 7d | 17.5% | 90% | 20% | · | $2,000 | $8,571 | -$9,257 | $539,000 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 200 × $13.50 17.5% OTM over spot $11.49 24 Jul 2026 (7d, $0.11 mid) = $2,000 credit for the 7d cycle → $8,571/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $13.50) 90% Breach risk 10% POP (stays ≤ $13.61) 91% EV / mo +$4,735 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 12% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$9,946 Free roll-up +$1/wk Safest escape (by 14 Aug 2026) $17 @ 84% POP 81% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 200 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 7); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $0.84/sh now → $0.60 mid-life (likely $0.53–$0.90) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.10/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.50/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 374 simulated challenges: the $14 strike is typically first touched on day 5 of 7, at $14 (overshoots $0.37). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $13.50 is $27 below CC-SS $40.55: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.03/sh (~25% of the $0.10 collected) or spot ≥ $13.61 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $14)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $15.25 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.09 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $40.55, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $0 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$54,633 − CC assignment net of premium (200 × $13.50): -$539,000 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-484,367 ($-484,367 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-316,167 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-168,200, the opportunity cost of earning $8,571/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $15.89 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$45,800, position total $-37,528 ($-37,528 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 33% normal ← lean | 172 × $13 | 24 Jul | 7d | 13.1% | 85% | 31% | · | $2,752 | $11,794 | -$6,034 | $471,108 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 172 × $13 13.1% OTM over spot $11.49 24 Jul 2026 (7d, $0.17 mid) = $2,752 credit for the 7d cycle → $11,794/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $13) 85% Breach risk 15% POP (stays ≤ $13.17) 87% EV / mo +$5,562 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 23% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$6,924 Free roll-up +$1/wk Safest escape (by 14 Aug 2026) $16 @ 84% POP 82% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 172 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 7); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $0.80/sh now → $0.56 mid-life (likely $0.53–$0.87) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.16/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.40/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 691 simulated challenges: the $13 strike is typically first touched on day 4 of 7, at $13 (overshoots $0.35). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $13 is $28 below CC-SS $40.55: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.04/sh (~25% of the $0.16 collected) or spot ≥ $13.17 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $13)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $15.25 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.09 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $40.55, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $0 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$54,633 − CC assignment net of premium (172 × $13): -$471,108 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (28 × $22): -$51,912 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-468,387 ($-468,387 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-316,167 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-152,220, the opportunity cost of earning $11,794/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $15.89 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$46,956, position total $-38,656 ($-38,656 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🎯 50% normal | 160 × $12.50 | 24 Jul | 7d | 8.8% | 77% | 36% | · | $4,160 | $17,829 | — | $444,640 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 160 × $12.50 8.8% OTM over spot $11.49 24 Jul 2026 (7d, $0.27 mid) = $4,160 credit for the 7d cycle → $17,829/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $12.50) 77% Breach risk 23% POP (stays ≤ $12.77) 82% EV / mo +$6,998 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 36% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$4,301 Free roll-up +$1/wk Safest escape (by 7 Aug 2026) $16 @ 88% POP 86% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 160 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 7); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $0.75/sh now → $0.53 mid-life (likely $0.58–$0.89) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.26/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.27/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 1,069 simulated challenges: the $12 strike is typically first touched on day 4 of 7, at $13 (overshoots $0.35). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $12.50 is $28 below CC-SS $40.55: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.07/sh (~25% of the $0.26 collected) or spot ≥ $12.77 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $12)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $15.25 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.09 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $40.55, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $0 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$54,633 − CC assignment net of premium (160 × $12.50): -$444,640 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (40 × $22): -$74,160 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-464,167 ($-464,167 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-316,167 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-148,000, the opportunity cost of earning $17,829/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $15.89 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$50,080, position total $-41,768 ($-41,768 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 100% normal | 139 × $11.50 | 24 Jul | 7d | 0.1% | 53% | 99% | · | $8,340 | $35,743 | +$17,914 | $395,455 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 139 × $11.50 0.1% OTM over spot $11.49 24 Jul 2026 (7d, $0.62 mid) = $8,340 credit for the 7d cycle → $35,743/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $11.50) 53% Breach risk 47% POP (stays ≤ $12.12) 69% EV / mo +$6,991 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 77% Flat exit net (mid-life) +$1,888 Free roll-up +$1/wk Safest escape (by 14 Aug 2026) $16 @ 91% POP 90% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 139 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 7); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $0.66/sh now → $0.46 mid-life (likely $0.66–$0.99) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.60/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets +$0.14/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 2,304 simulated challenges: the $12 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 7, at $12 (overshoots $0.40). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $11.50 is $29 below CC-SS $40.55: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.15/sh (~25% of the $0.60 collected) or spot ≥ $12.12 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $12)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $15.25 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.09 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $40.55, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $0 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$54,633 − CC assignment net of premium (139 × $11.50): -$395,455 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (61 × $22): -$113,094 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-453,916 ($-453,916 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-316,167 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-137,749, the opportunity cost of earning $35,743/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $15.89 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$52,681, position total $-44,348 ($-44,348 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Every eligible strike x expiry in the 4-45 DTE band (4 expiries scanned, 11 clear the income floor), each sized to the minimum contracts that clear it. Sorted by survival (safest first): the primary 🎯 is the safest; rows below trade safety for income.
Fortress delta: 0.094 (IBKR) | Recovery@SS: +$54,633 (un-capped fortress gain if stock rallies to SS) | Do-nothing @ SS: $-316,167
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $12.50 | 7d | 24 Jul 2026 | $0.26 | 160/200 | $17,829 | $17,914 | 77% | 82% | +$6,998 | -$444,640 | 4042.2% | $-464,167 (vs do-nothing $-148,000) |
| $12.50 | 14d | 31 Jul 2026 | $0.46 | 181/200 | $17,841 | $17,882 | 71% | 78% | +$5,367 | -$499,379 | 4539.8% | $-479,972 (vs do-nothing $-163,805) |
| $12.50 | 21d | 7 Aug 2026 | $0.67 | 186/200 | $17,803 | $17,833 | 69% | 77% | +$4,360 | -$509,268 | 4629.7% | $-480,591 (vs do-nothing $-164,424) |
| $12 | 7d | 24 Jul 2026 | $0.40 | 104/200 | $17,829 | $18,034 | 66% | 75% | +$5,161 | -$292,760 | 2661.5% | $-416,111 (vs do-nothing $-99,944) |
| $12 | 14d | 31 Jul 2026 | $0.62 | 134/200 | $17,803 | $17,944 | 63% | 74% | +$4,115 | -$374,262 | 3402.4% | $-441,993 (vs do-nothing $-125,826) |
| $12 | 21d | 7 Aug 2026 | $0.85 | 147/200 | $17,850 | $17,964 | 62% | 73% | +$3,749 | -$407,190 | 3701.7% | $-450,819 (vs do-nothing $-134,652) |
| $12 | 28d | 14 Aug 2026 | $1.02 | 163/200 | $17,814 | $17,893 | 62% | 73% | +$3,658 | -$448,739 | 4079.4% | $-462,704 (vs do-nothing $-146,537) |
| $11.50 | 28d | 14 Aug 2026 | $1.19 | 140/200 | $17,850 | $17,979 | 55% | 70% | +$2,599 | -$390,040 | 3545.8% | $-446,647 (vs do-nothing $-130,480) |
| $11.50 | 21d | 7 Aug 2026 | $1.05 | 119/200 | $17,850 | $18,024 | 55% | 70% | +$2,893 | -$333,200 | 3029.1% | $-428,741 (vs do-nothing $-112,574) |
| $11.50 | 14d | 31 Jul 2026 | $0.83 | 101/200 | $17,964 | $18,176 | 54% | 69% | +$3,088 | -$285,022 | 2591.1% | $-413,935 (vs do-nothing $-97,768) |
| $11.50 | 7d | 24 Jul 2026 | $0.60 | 70/200 | $18,000 | $18,279 | 53% | 69% | +$3,520 | -$199,150 | 1810.5% | $-385,537 (vs do-nothing $-69,370) |
Income/mo = FIGHT leg gross, DTE-prorated. Net/mo = FIGHT + conservative CC gross minus hedge cost. POP (mid) = probability stock closes at or below (strike + mid premium) at expiry, per-strike chain IV when available. Survival = CC expires fully worthless. EV/mo = premium minus expected buyback, monthly, with realized vol = IV x 85% (variance risk premium 15%). Cap give-up @ SS = recovery mortgaged on a V-bounce to SS, net of premium. Total P&L @ SS = absolute position P&L if the stock closes at SS; "vs do-nothing" = opportunity cost against holding all 200 contracts at the conservative CC.