200 contracts (20,000 sh) | BE SS: $40.55 | CC-SS: $13.59 | IV: HIGH | Accounts: Main:1299
| Max Loss | $11,000 | (ND $0.55 + SW $0) x 20000 |
| Normal income ref | $28,714/mo | 95% ann ROI on ML |
| Hedge (static, never rolled) | $0/mo | HP expiry = SP LEAPS; decay ≈ $0/mo (info only, already in marks) |
| Unrealized P&L | $-5,000 | fortress legs from IBKR |
Each Friday gets its own recommended pick and full income ladder (safest strike per income rung, sized across your 200 contracts). The master ranks the two by E[net]/mo to pick one grand pick; both are shown here so you can choose the tenor that fits your roll cadence.
| Track | Expiry | Sell | Survival | Income/mo | E[net]/mo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NEXT FRIDAY 🏆 | 24 Jul 2026 · 7d | 177 × $12 | 78% | $14,413 | $2,602 |
| Rung | Sell | Expiry | DTE | OTM | Survival | Touch odds | FIGHT edge | Per cycle | Income/mo | Δ vs pick | Cap give-up | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| ▸ | 🛡 safe yield ← lean | 200 × $13 | 24 Jul | 7d | 18.6% | 90% | 20% | +28pp | $1,600 | $6,857 | -$7,556 | $10,140 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 200 × $13 18.6% OTM over spot $10.96 24 Jul 2026 (7d, $0.08 mid) = $1,600 credit for the 7d cycle → $6,857/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $13) 90% Breach risk 10% POP (stays ≤ $13.09) 91% EV / mo +$3,021 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +28pp 99% whole by 9mo vs 70% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~0.2/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $6,128/mo median; plan ~$4,167/mo after 68% keep · $4,749 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~0.8 mo [0.4-1.4], measured ONLY among the 99% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 11% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$8,911 Free roll-up +$1/wk Safest escape (by 14 Aug 2026) $15 @ 79% POP 75% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 200 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 7); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $0.74/sh now → $0.53 mid-life (likely $0.45–$0.78) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.08/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.45/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 331 simulated challenges: the $13 strike is typically first touched on day 5 of 7, at $13 (overshoots $0.38). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $13 is $1 below CC-SS $13.59: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.02/sh (~25% of the $0.08 collected) or spot ≥ $13.09 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $13)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $15.27 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.08 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $13.59, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-5,000 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$4,361 − CC assignment net of premium (200 × $13): -$10,140 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-10,780 ($-5,780 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-439 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-10,340, the opportunity cost of earning $6,857/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $15.88 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$56,000, position total $-52,833 ($-47,833 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 33% normal | 117 × $12 | 24 Jul | 7d | 9.5% | 78% | 47% | +26pp | $2,223 | $9,527 | -$4,886 | $16,345 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 117 × $12 9.5% OTM over spot $10.96 24 Jul 2026 (7d, $0.20 mid) = $2,223 credit for the 7d cycle → $9,527/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $12) 78% Breach risk 22% POP (stays ≤ $12.20) 81% EV / mo +$2,085 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +26pp 100% whole by 9mo vs 74% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~0.4/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $9,917/mo median; plan ~$6,744/mo after 68% keep · $4,929 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~0.5 mo [0.3-0.9], measured ONLY among the 100% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 34% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$3,199 Free roll-up +$1/wk Safest escape (by 14 Aug 2026) $15 @ 86% POP 84% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 117 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 7); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $0.66/sh now → $0.46 mid-life (likely $0.49–$0.75) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.19/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.27/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 1,024 simulated challenges: the $12 strike is typically first touched on day 4 of 7, at $12 (overshoots $0.33). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $12 is $2 below CC-SS $13.59: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.05/sh (~25% of the $0.19 collected) or spot ≥ $12.20 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $12)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $15.27 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.08 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $13.59, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-5,000 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$4,361 − CC assignment net of premium (117 × $12): -$16,345 + Conservative CC premium (83 × $22): +$83 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-16,901 ($-11,901 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-439 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-16,462, the opportunity cost of earning $9,527/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $15.88 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$43,173, position total $-39,923 ($-34,923 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🎯 50% normal | 177 × $12 | 24 Jul | 7d | 9.5% | 78% | 34% | +31pp | $3,363 | $14,413 | — | $24,727 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 177 × $12 9.5% OTM over spot $10.96 24 Jul 2026 (7d, $0.20 mid) = $3,363 credit for the 7d cycle → $14,413/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $12) 78% Breach risk 22% POP (stays ≤ $12.20) 81% EV / mo +$3,154 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +31pp 100% whole by 9mo vs 69% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~0.2/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $15,966/mo median; plan ~$10,857/mo after 68% keep · $6,640 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~0.4 mo [0.1-0.6], measured ONLY among the 100% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 34% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$4,839 Free roll-up +$1/wk Safest escape (by 14 Aug 2026) $15 @ 86% POP 84% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 177 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 7); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $0.66/sh now → $0.46 mid-life (likely $0.49–$0.74) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.19/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.27/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 1,008 simulated challenges: the $12 strike is typically first touched on day 4 of 7, at $12 (overshoots $0.32). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $12 is $2 below CC-SS $13.59: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.05/sh (~25% of the $0.19 collected) or spot ≥ $12.20 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $12)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $15.27 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.08 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $13.59, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-5,000 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$4,361 − CC assignment net of premium (177 × $12): -$24,727 + Conservative CC premium (23 × $22): +$23 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-25,343 ($-20,343 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-439 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-24,904, the opportunity cost of earning $14,413/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $15.88 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$65,313, position total $-62,123 ($-57,123 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 100% normal | 137 × $11 | 24 Jul | 7d | 0.4% | 54% | 98% | +28pp | $6,713 | $28,770 | +$14,357 | $28,729 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 137 × $11 0.4% OTM over spot $10.96 24 Jul 2026 (7d, $0.52 mid) = $6,713 credit for the 7d cycle → $28,770/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $11) 54% Breach risk 46% POP (stays ≤ $11.52) 67% EV / mo +$1,989 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +28pp 100% whole by 9mo vs 72% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~0.3/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $103,395/mo median; plan ~$70,309/mo after 68% keep · $7,078 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~0.1 mo [0.0-0.2], measured ONLY among the 100% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 75% Flat exit net (mid-life) +$1,167 Free roll-up +$1/wk Safest escape (by 7 Aug 2026) $16 @ 95% POP 95% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 137 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 7); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $0.57/sh now → $0.40 mid-life (likely $0.57–$0.86) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.49/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets +$0.09/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 2,255 simulated challenges: the $11 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 7, at $11 (overshoots $0.39). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $11 is $3 below CC-SS $13.59: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.12/sh (~25% of the $0.49 collected) or spot ≥ $11.52 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $11)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $15.27 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.08 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $13.59, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-5,000 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$4,361 − CC assignment net of premium (137 × $11): -$28,729 + Conservative CC premium (63 × $22): +$63 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-29,305 ($-24,305 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-439 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-28,866, the opportunity cost of earning $28,770/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $15.88 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$60,143, position total $-56,913 ($-51,913 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Every eligible strike x expiry in the 4-45 DTE band (4 expiries scanned, 10 clear the income floor), each sized to the minimum contracts that clear it. Sorted by survival (safest first): the primary 🎯 is the safest; rows below trade safety for income.
Fortress delta: 0.083 (IBKR) | Recovery@SS: +$4,361 (un-capped fortress gain if stock rallies to SS) | Do-nothing @ SS: $-439
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $12 | 7d | 24 Jul 2026 | $0.19 | 177/200 | $14,413 | $14,462 | 78% | 81% | +$3,154 | -$24,727 | 224.8% | $-25,343 (vs do-nothing $-24,904) |
| $12 | 28d | 14 Aug 2026 | $0.68 | 198/200 | $14,426 | $14,430 | 68% | 78% | +$2,046 | -$17,959 | 163.3% | $-18,596 (vs do-nothing $-18,157) |
| $11.50 | 7d | 24 Jul 2026 | $0.31 | 109/200 | $14,481 | $14,676 | 67% | 75% | +$2,041 | -$19,369 | 176.1% | $-19,918 (vs do-nothing $-19,478) |
| $11.50 | 14d | 31 Jul 2026 | $0.50 | 134/200 | $14,357 | $14,499 | 63% | 73% | $-2,643 | -$21,266 | 193.3% | $-21,839 (vs do-nothing $-21,400) |
| $11.50 | 21d | 7 Aug 2026 | $0.69 | 146/200 | $14,391 | $14,507 | 63% | 75% | +$1,419 | -$20,396 | 185.4% | $-20,982 (vs do-nothing $-20,542) |
| $11.50 | 28d | 14 Aug 2026 | $0.80 | 168/200 | $14,400 | $14,469 | 62% | 75% | +$797 | -$21,622 | 196.6% | $-22,229 (vs do-nothing $-21,790) |
| $11 | 28d | 14 Aug 2026 | $0.80 | 168/200 | $14,400 | $14,469 | 56% | 70% | $-2,750 | -$30,022 | 272.9% | $-30,629 (vs do-nothing $-30,190) |
| $11 | 21d | 7 Aug 2026 | $0.90 | 112/200 | $14,400 | $14,589 | 55% | 70% | +$1,178 | -$18,895 | 171.8% | $-19,446 (vs do-nothing $-19,007) |
| $11 | 14d | 31 Jul 2026 | $0.67 | 100/200 | $14,357 | $14,571 | 54% | 68% | $-117 | -$19,170 | 174.3% | $-19,709 (vs do-nothing $-19,270) |
| $11 | 7d | 24 Jul 2026 | $0.49 | 69/200 | $14,490 | $14,771 | 54% | 67% | +$1,002 | -$14,469 | 131.5% | $-14,978 (vs do-nothing $-14,538) |
Income/mo = FIGHT leg gross, DTE-prorated. Net/mo = FIGHT + conservative CC gross minus hedge cost. POP (mid) = probability stock closes at or below (strike + mid premium) at expiry, per-strike chain IV when available. Survival = CC expires fully worthless. EV/mo = premium minus expected buyback, monthly, with realized vol = IV x 85% (variance risk premium 15%). Cap give-up @ SS = recovery mortgaged on a V-bounce to SS, net of premium. Total P&L @ SS = absolute position P&L if the stock closes at SS; "vs do-nothing" = opportunity cost against holding all 200 contracts at the conservative CC.