200 contracts (20,000 sh) | BE SS: $40.55 | CC-SS: $13.53 | IV: HIGH | Accounts: Main:1299
| Max Loss | $11,000 | (ND $0.55 + SW $0) x 20000 |
| Normal income ref | $31,385/mo | 95% ann ROI on ML |
| Hedge (static, never rolled) | $0/mo | HP expiry = SP LEAPS; decay ≈ $0/mo (info only, already in marks) |
| Unrealized P&L | $-6,000 | fortress legs from IBKR |
Each Friday gets its own recommended pick and full income ladder (safest strike per income rung, sized across your 200 contracts). The master ranks the two by E[net]/mo to pick one grand pick; both are shown here so you can choose the tenor that fits your roll cadence.
| Track | Expiry | Sell | Survival | Income/mo | E[net]/mo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NEXT FRIDAY 🏆 | 24 Jul 2026 · 6d | 143 × $11.50 | 76% | $15,730 | $3,316 |
| Rung | Sell | Expiry | DTE | OTM | Survival | Touch odds | FIGHT edge | Per cycle | Income/mo | Δ vs pick | Cap give-up | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| ▸ | 🛡 safe yield | 200 × $12.50 | 24 Jul | 6d | 17.3% | 92% | 16% | +30pp | $1,400 | $7,000 | -$8,730 | $19,109 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 200 × $12.50 17.3% OTM over spot $10.66 24 Jul 2026 (6d, $0.08 mid) = $1,400 credit for the 6d cycle → $7,000/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $12.50) 92% Breach risk 8% POP (stays ≤ $12.58) 93% EV / mo +$4,411 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +30pp 99% whole by 9mo vs 69% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~0.2/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $6,014/mo median; plan ~$4,090/mo after 68% keep · $5,543 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~0.8 mo [0.5-1.5], measured ONLY among the 99% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 11% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$8,914 Free roll-up +$1/wk Safest escape (by 14 Aug 2026) $15 @ 84% POP 81% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 200 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 6); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $0.73/sh now → $0.52 mid-life (likely $0.42–$0.72) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.07/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.45/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 334 simulated challenges: the $12 strike is typically first touched on day 4 of 6, at $13 (overshoots $0.30). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $12.50 is $1 below CC-SS $13.53: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.02/sh (~25% of the $0.07 collected) or spot ≥ $12.58 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $12)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $15.34 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.09 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $13.53, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-6,000 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$5,272 − CC assignment net of premium (200 × $12.50): -$19,109 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-19,836 ($-13,836 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-528 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-19,309, the opportunity cost of earning $7,000/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $15.87 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$66,000, position total $-62,414 ($-56,414 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 33% normal ← lean | 160 × $12 | 24 Jul | 6d | 12.6% | 85% | 30% | +33pp | $2,080 | $10,400 | -$5,330 | $22,327 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 160 × $12 12.6% OTM over spot $10.66 24 Jul 2026 (6d, $0.14 mid) = $2,080 credit for the 6d cycle → $10,400/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $12) 85% Breach risk 15% POP (stays ≤ $12.13) 87% EV / mo +$4,979 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +33pp 100% whole by 9mo vs 66% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~0.3/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $9,796/mo median; plan ~$6,662/mo after 68% keep · $6,531 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~0.7 mo [0.4-1.0], measured ONLY among the 100% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 20% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$5,655 Free roll-up +$0/wk Safest escape (by 14 Aug 2026) $15 @ 87% POP 85% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 160 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 6); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $0.68/sh now → $0.48 mid-life (likely $0.46–$0.75) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.13/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.35/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 589 simulated challenges: the $12 strike is typically first touched on day 4 of 6, at $12 (overshoots $0.33). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $12 is $2 below CC-SS $13.53: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.03/sh (~25% of the $0.13 collected) or spot ≥ $12.13 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $12)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $15.34 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.09 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $13.53, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-6,000 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$5,272 − CC assignment net of premium (160 × $12): -$22,327 + Conservative CC premium (40 × $21): +$40 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-23,015 ($-17,015 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-528 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-22,487, the opportunity cost of earning $10,400/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $15.87 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$59,840, position total $-56,214 ($-50,214 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🎯 50% normal | 143 × $11.50 | 24 Jul | 6d | 7.9% | 76% | 38% | +39pp | $3,146 | $15,730 | — | $25,818 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 143 × $11.50 7.9% OTM over spot $10.66 24 Jul 2026 (6d, $0.23 mid) = $3,146 credit for the 6d cycle → $15,730/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $11.50) 76% Breach risk 24% POP (stays ≤ $11.73) 81% EV / mo +$5,855 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +39pp 100% whole by 9mo vs 61% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~0.4/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $16,300/mo median; plan ~$11,084/mo after 68% keep · $6,984 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~0.4 mo [0.3-0.7], measured ONLY among the 100% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 38% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$3,319 Free roll-up +$0/wk Safest escape (by 14 Aug 2026) $15 @ 91% POP 90% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 143 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 6); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $0.64/sh now → $0.45 mid-life (likely $0.49–$0.77) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.22/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.23/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 1,152 simulated challenges: the $12 strike is typically first touched on day 3 of 6, at $12 (overshoots $0.31). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $11.50 is $2 below CC-SS $13.53: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.06/sh (~25% of the $0.22 collected) or spot ≥ $11.73 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $12)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $15.34 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.09 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $13.53, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-6,000 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$5,272 − CC assignment net of premium (143 × $11.50): -$25,818 + Conservative CC premium (57 × $21): +$57 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-26,488 ($-20,488 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-528 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-25,961, the opportunity cost of earning $15,730/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $15.87 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$59,345, position total $-55,702 ($-49,702 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 100% normal | 166 × $11 | 24 Jul | 6d | 3.2% | 63% | 77% | +34pp | $6,308 | $31,540 | +$15,810 | $35,614 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 166 × $11 3.2% OTM over spot $10.66 24 Jul 2026 (6d, $0.39 mid) = $6,308 credit for the 6d cycle → $31,540/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $11) 63% Breach risk 37% POP (stays ≤ $11.39) 74% EV / mo +$8,635 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +34pp 100% whole by 9mo vs 66% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~0.3/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $52,326/mo median; plan ~$35,582/mo after 68% keep · $7,014 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~0.2 mo [0.1-0.3], measured ONLY among the 100% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 59% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$694 Free roll-up +$0/wk Safest escape (by 14 Aug 2026) $15 @ 92% POP 91% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 166 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 6); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $0.60/sh now → $0.42 mid-life (likely $0.54–$0.81) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.38/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.04/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 1,768 simulated challenges: the $11 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 6, at $11 (overshoots $0.32). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $11 is $3 below CC-SS $13.53: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.10/sh (~25% of the $0.38 collected) or spot ≥ $11.39 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $11)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $15.34 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.09 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $13.53, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-6,000 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$5,272 − CC assignment net of premium (166 × $11): -$35,614 + Conservative CC premium (34 × $21): +$34 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-36,308 ($-30,308 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-528 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-35,780, the opportunity cost of earning $31,540/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $15.87 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$74,534, position total $-70,914 ($-64,914 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Every eligible strike x expiry in the 4-45 DTE band (4 expiries scanned, 12 clear the income floor), each sized to the minimum contracts that clear it. Sorted by survival (safest first): the primary 🎯 is the safest; rows below trade safety for income.
Fortress delta: 0.092 (IBKR) | Recovery@SS: +$5,272 (un-capped fortress gain if stock rallies to SS) | Do-nothing @ SS: $-528
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $11.50 | 6d | 24 Jul 2026 | $0.22 | 143/200 | $15,730 | $15,862 | 76% | 81% | +$5,855 | -$25,818 | 234.7% | $-26,488 (vs do-nothing $-25,961) |
| $11.50 | 13d | 31 Jul 2026 | $0.44 | 155/200 | $15,738 | $15,842 | 70% | 77% | +$4,200 | -$24,574 | 223.4% | $-25,257 (vs do-nothing $-24,729) |
| $11.50 | 20d | 7 Aug 2026 | $0.65 | 161/200 | $15,698 | $15,788 | 68% | 77% | +$4,468 | -$22,145 | 201.3% | $-22,833 (vs do-nothing $-22,306) |
| $11.50 | 27d | 14 Aug 2026 | $0.80 | 177/200 | $15,733 | $15,786 | 66% | 76% | +$3,704 | -$21,690 | 197.2% | $-22,395 (vs do-nothing $-21,867) |
| $11 | 6d | 24 Jul 2026 | $0.38 | 83/200 | $15,770 | $16,040 | 63% | 74% | +$4,317 | -$17,807 | 161.9% | $-18,418 (vs do-nothing $-17,890) |
| $11 | 13d | 31 Jul 2026 | $0.62 | 110/200 | $15,738 | $15,946 | 61% | 72% | +$3,331 | -$20,960 | 190.5% | $-21,597 (vs do-nothing $-21,070) |
| $11 | 20d | 7 Aug 2026 | $0.81 | 130/200 | $15,795 | $15,957 | 60% | 73% | +$3,304 | -$22,301 | 202.7% | $-22,958 (vs do-nothing $-22,431) |
| $11 | 27d | 14 Aug 2026 | $0.97 | 146/200 | $15,736 | $15,860 | 60% | 73% | +$2,945 | -$22,709 | 206.4% | $-23,383 (vs do-nothing $-22,855) |
| $10.50 | 27d | 14 Aug 2026 | $1.14 | 124/200 | $15,707 | $15,882 | 53% | 69% | +$1,810 | -$23,379 | 212.5% | $-24,031 (vs do-nothing $-23,503) |
| $10.50 | 20d | 7 Aug 2026 | $1.01 | 104/200 | $15,756 | $15,978 | 52% | 69% | +$2,288 | -$20,961 | 190.6% | $-21,592 (vs do-nothing $-21,065) |
| $10.50 | 13d | 31 Jul 2026 | $0.84 | 81/200 | $15,702 | $15,976 | 50% | 68% | +$2,374 | -$17,702 | 160.9% | $-18,311 (vs do-nothing $-17,783) |
| $10.50 | 6d | 24 Jul 2026 | $0.60 | 53/200 | $15,900 | $16,239 | 47% | 67% | +$2,557 | -$12,855 | 116.9% | $-13,435 (vs do-nothing $-12,908) |
Income/mo = FIGHT leg gross, DTE-prorated. Net/mo = FIGHT + conservative CC gross minus hedge cost. POP (mid) = probability stock closes at or below (strike + mid premium) at expiry, per-strike chain IV when available. Survival = CC expires fully worthless. EV/mo = premium minus expected buyback, monthly, with realized vol = IV x 85% (variance risk premium 15%). Cap give-up @ SS = recovery mortgaged on a V-bounce to SS, net of premium. Total P&L @ SS = absolute position P&L if the stock closes at SS; "vs do-nothing" = opportunity cost against holding all 200 contracts at the conservative CC.