200 contracts (20,000 sh) | BE SS: $40.55 | CC-SS: $13.81 | IV: HIGH | Accounts: Main:1299
| Max Loss | $11,000 | (ND $0.55 + SW $0) x 20000 |
| Normal income ref | $22,000/mo | 95% ann ROI on ML |
| Hedge (static, never rolled) | $0/mo | HP expiry = SP LEAPS; decay ≈ $0/mo (info only, already in marks) |
| Unrealized P&L | $-5,000 | fortress legs from IBKR |
Each Friday gets its own recommended pick and full income ladder (safest strike per income rung, sized across your 200 contracts). The master ranks the two by E[net]/mo to pick one grand pick; both are shown here so you can choose the tenor that fits your roll cadence.
| Track | Expiry | Sell | Survival | Income/mo | E[net]/mo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NEXT FRIDAY 🏆 | 24 Jul 2026 · 5d | 131 × $12 | 70% | $11,004 | $3,253 |
| Rung | Sell | Expiry | DTE | OTM | Survival | Touch odds | FIGHT edge | Per cycle | Income/mo | Δ vs pick | Cap give-up | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| ▸ | 🛡 safe yield | 200 × $14.50 | 31 Jul | 12d | 27.0% | 94% | 13% | +1pp | $1,200 | $3,000 | -$8,004 | $0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 200 × $14.50 27.0% OTM over spot $11.42 31 Jul 2026 (12d, $0.07 mid) = $1,200 credit for the 12d cycle → $3,000/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $14.50) 94% Breach risk 6% POP (stays ≤ $14.56) 94% EV / mo +$1,349 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +1pp 92% whole by 9mo vs 91% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~0.1/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $0/mo median; plan ~$0/mo after 68% keep · $0 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~0.1 mo [0.0-0.3], measured ONLY among the 92% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 9% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$9,639 Free roll-up +$1/wk Safest escape (by 7 Aug 2026) $16 @ 72% POP 67% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 200 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 6 of 12); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $0.77/sh now → $0.54 mid-life (likely $0.42–$0.71) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.06/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.48/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 269 simulated challenges: the $14 strike is typically first touched on day 8 of 12, at $15 (overshoots $0.42). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ✓ $14.50 is at/above CC-SS $13.81: assignment is break-even or better.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.01/sh (~25% of the $0.06 collected) or spot ≥ $14.56 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $14)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $15.26 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.90 (fallback)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $13.81, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-5,000 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$43,095 − CC assignment net of premium (200 × $14.50): -$0 Total Position P&L @ SS: $38,095 (+$43,095 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $38,295 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-200, the opportunity cost of earning $3,000/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $15.87 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$26,200, position total $48,900 (+$53,900 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 33% normal ← lean | 152 × $12.50 | 24 Jul | 5d | 9.5% | 81% | 40% | +1pp | $1,216 | $7,296 | -$3,708 | $18,760 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 152 × $12.50 9.5% OTM over spot $11.42 24 Jul 2026 (5d, $0.08 mid) = $1,216 credit for the 5d cycle → $7,296/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $12.50) 81% Breach risk 19% POP (stays ≤ $12.59) 82% EV / mo $-1,999 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +1pp 93% whole by 9mo vs 92% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~0.6/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $120/mo median; plan ~$82/mo after 68% keep · $16 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~0.1 mo [0.0-0.2], measured ONLY among the 93% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 26% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$2,270 Free roll-up +$1/wk Safest escape (by 7 Aug 2026) $16 @ 89% POP 88% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 152 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 2 of 5); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $0.32/sh now → $0.23 mid-life (likely $0.25–$0.39) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.08/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.15/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 774 simulated challenges: the $12 strike is typically first touched on day 3 of 5, at $13 (overshoots $0.35). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $12.50 is $1 below CC-SS $13.81: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.02/sh (~25% of the $0.08 collected) or spot ≥ $12.59 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $12)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $15.26 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.90 (fallback)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $13.81, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-5,000 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$43,095 − CC assignment net of premium (152 × $12.50): -$18,760 + Conservative CC premium (48 × $21): +$48 Total Position P&L @ SS: $19,384 (+$24,384 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $38,295 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-18,912, the opportunity cost of earning $7,296/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $15.87 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$50,008, position total $25,140 (+$30,140 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🎯 50% normal | 131 × $12 | 24 Jul | 5d | 5.1% | 70% | 46% | +2pp | $1,834 | $11,004 | — | $21,932 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 131 × $12 5.1% OTM over spot $11.42 24 Jul 2026 (5d, $0.15 mid) = $1,834 credit for the 5d cycle → $11,004/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $12) 70% Breach risk 30% POP (stays ≤ $12.14) 73% EV / mo $-4,674 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +2pp 96% whole by 9mo vs 93% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~0.8/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $10,595/mo median; plan ~$7,205/mo after 68% keep · $1,846 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~0.1 mo [0.0-0.3], measured ONLY among the 96% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 46% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$985 Free roll-up +$1/wk Safest escape (by 7 Aug 2026) $15 @ 90% POP 90% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 131 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 2 of 5); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $0.30/sh now → $0.22 mid-life (likely $0.25–$0.40) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.14/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.08/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 1,375 simulated challenges: the $12 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 5, at $12 (overshoots $0.33). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $12 is $2 below CC-SS $13.81: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.04/sh (~25% of the $0.14 collected) or spot ≥ $12.14 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $12)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $15.26 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.90 (fallback)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $13.81, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-5,000 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$43,095 − CC assignment net of premium (131 × $12): -$21,932 + Conservative CC premium (69 × $21): +$69 Total Position P&L @ SS: $16,232 (+$21,232 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $38,295 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-22,063, the opportunity cost of earning $11,004/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $15.87 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$48,863, position total $26,306 (+$31,306 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 100% normal | 147 × $11.50 | 24 Jul | 5d | 0.7% | 55% | 94% | +3pp | $3,675 | $22,050 | +$11,046 | $30,343 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 147 × $11.50 0.7% OTM over spot $11.42 24 Jul 2026 (5d, $0.26 mid) = $3,675 credit for the 5d cycle → $22,050/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $11.50) 55% Breach risk 45% POP (stays ≤ $11.76) 63% EV / mo $-11,015 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +3pp 96% whole by 9mo vs 92% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~1.6/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $55,258/mo median; plan ~$37,575/mo after 68% keep · $3,693 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~0.1 mo [0.0-0.2], measured ONLY among the 96% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 71% Flat exit net (mid-life) +$715 Free roll-up +$1/wk Safest escape (by 7 Aug 2026) $15 @ 92% POP 91% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 147 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 2 of 5); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $0.28/sh now → $0.20 mid-life (likely $0.28–$0.45) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.25/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets +$0.05/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 2,119 simulated challenges: the $12 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 5, at $12 (overshoots $0.39). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $11.50 is $2 below CC-SS $13.81: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.06/sh (~25% of the $0.25 collected) or spot ≥ $11.76 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $12)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $15.26 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.90 (fallback)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $13.81, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-5,000 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$43,095 − CC assignment net of premium (147 × $11.50): -$30,343 + Conservative CC premium (53 × $21): +$53 Total Position P&L @ SS: $7,805 (+$12,805 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $38,295 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-30,490, the opportunity cost of earning $22,050/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $15.87 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$60,564, position total $14,589 (+$19,589 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Every eligible strike x expiry in the 4-45 DTE band (4 expiries scanned, 10 clear the income floor), each sized to the minimum contracts that clear it. Sorted by survival (safest first): the primary 🎯 is the safest; rows below trade safety for income.
Fortress delta: 0.900 (fallback) | Recovery@SS: +$43,095 (un-capped fortress gain if stock rallies to SS) | Do-nothing @ SS: $38,295
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $12.50 | 12d | 31 Jul 2026 | $0.22 | 200/200 | $11,000 | $11,000 | 73% | 77% | $-2,597 | -$21,884 | 198.9% | $16,212 (vs do-nothing $-22,084) |
| $12.50 | 19d | 7 Aug 2026 | $0.38 | 184/200 | $11,040 | $11,080 | 70% | 75% | $-2,341 | -$17,189 | 156.3% | $20,922 (vs do-nothing $-17,373) |
| $12 | 5d | 24 Jul 2026 | $0.14 | 131/200 | $11,004 | $11,177 | 70% | 73% | $-4,674 | -$21,932 | 199.4% | $16,232 (vs do-nothing $-22,063) |
| $12 | 12d | 31 Jul 2026 | $0.30 | 147/200 | $11,025 | $11,158 | 65% | 71% | $-4,009 | -$22,258 | 202.3% | $15,890 (vs do-nothing $-22,405) |
| $12 | 19d | 7 Aug 2026 | $0.48 | 146/200 | $11,065 | $11,200 | 63% | 70% | $-3,112 | -$19,479 | 177.1% | $18,670 (vs do-nothing $-19,625) |
| $12 | 26d | 14 Aug 2026 | $0.67 | 143/200 | $11,055 | $11,198 | 63% | 71% | $-524 | -$16,362 | 148.7% | $21,790 (vs do-nothing $-16,505) |
| $11.50 | 26d | 14 Aug 2026 | $0.80 | 120/200 | $11,077 | $11,277 | 56% | 67% | $-2,073 | -$18,170 | 165.2% | $20,005 (vs do-nothing $-18,290) |
| $11.50 | 19d | 7 Aug 2026 | $0.64 | 109/200 | $11,015 | $11,242 | 55% | 66% | $-2,199 | -$18,249 | 165.9% | $19,938 (vs do-nothing $-18,358) |
| $11.50 | 12d | 31 Jul 2026 | $0.44 | 100/200 | $11,000 | $11,250 | 55% | 64% | $-4,063 | -$18,742 | 170.4% | $19,453 (vs do-nothing $-18,842) |
| $11.50 | 5d | 24 Jul 2026 | $0.25 | 74/200 | $11,100 | $11,415 | 55% | 63% | $-5,545 | -$15,275 | 138.9% | $22,946 (vs do-nothing $-15,349) |
Income/mo = FIGHT leg gross, DTE-prorated. Net/mo = FIGHT + conservative CC gross minus hedge cost. POP (mid) = probability stock closes at or below (strike + mid premium) at expiry, per-strike chain IV when available. Survival = CC expires fully worthless. EV/mo = premium minus expected buyback, monthly, with realized vol = IV x 85% (variance risk premium 15%). Cap give-up @ SS = recovery mortgaged on a V-bounce to SS, net of premium. Total P&L @ SS = absolute position P&L if the stock closes at SS; "vs do-nothing" = opportunity cost against holding all 200 contracts at the conservative CC.