MARA-LC40 @ $11.77 UNDERWATER $28.78 (71.0% below BE SS)
⚠ EARNINGS · DO NOT SELL INCOME INTO IT
MARA reports 2026-07-29 (Wed), in 8 days. The recommended CC (24d) expires on/after it, so selling now holds a short call through the earnings gap, a report can blow past your strike overnight and cap you at a loss. Wait for the print, or sell only an expiry that closes BEFORE 2026-07-29.
200 contracts (20,000 sh) | BE SS: $40.55 | CC-SS: $14.44 | IV: HIGH | Accounts: Main:1299
LC: $40 exp 2027-01-15 (entry $0.557/sh)
Economics
| Max Loss | $11,000 | (ND $0.55 + SW $0) x 20000 |
| Normal income ref | $31,059/mo | 95% ann ROI on ML |
| Hedge (static, never rolled) | $0/mo | HP expiry = SP LEAPS; decay ≈ $0/mo (info only, already in marks) |
| Unrealized P&L | $-5,800 | fortress legs from IBKR |
INCOME GOALPOSTS & VELOCITY
50% INCOME FLOOR
$15,529/mo
HEDGE COVER
$0/mo (static)
NORMAL INCOME
$31,059/mo (ATM CC, chain)
IC VELOCITY
0.4 mo to earn back $11,000
ML VELOCITY
0.4 mo to earn back $11,000
NOT a deep drawdown: a CC at CC-SS $14.44 (probe: $14.5C 17d) still earns $8,118/mo (26% of normal). Sell the normal CC at/above CC-SS; a FIGHT CC below it is not needed here.
🏦 Campaign ledger: seeded, nothing tracked yet. Open short calls and banked credits appear here from the next cycle on; the banked-floor (info) shows how far premium would ratchet the floor, but the recommended CC-SS stays the pure recovery strike.
TECHNICALS (cc_timing weekly gate + daily trigger)
WEEKLYNEUTRAL · %B 50 (live) · RSI 48 · MACD bearish, hist falling
DAILYFALLING (provisional) · RSI 43 · %B 26 · hist falling (nightly)
LEVELSUpper BB (CC ceiling) $15.74 (+34%) · daily UBB $14.96 · 1-wk expected move ±$2 (chain IV)
SETUPNo tilt: engine default. (advisory; floors and picks are chain-only)
⚠ Next earnings 2026-07-29: candidates whose expiry crosses it are flagged in the spectrum; EV is unreliable across earnings.
NOT a deep drawdown. A CC at/above CC-SS $14.44 keeps this fortress whole if assigned, so there is no need to FIGHT below it. Three income options to consider, richer → safer, all at/above CC-SS. Click a card for its if-challenged roll menu.
🎯 Recommended · sell 200 × $14.50 14 Aug 2026 (24d) · richest strike still ≥80% survivalroll menu if challenged ▾
Survival (stays ≤ $14.50)
82%
Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 200 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 12 of 24); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic
Buyback gross: $1.80/sh now → $1.27 mid-life → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.36/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.91/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (200 ct) | POP / surv
of new CC |
|---|
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP.
Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened.
🛡 Safer · sell 200 × $16 14 Aug 2026 (24d) · higher survival, lighter premiumroll menu if challenged ▾
Survival (stays ≤ $16)
90%
Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 200 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 12 of 24); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic
Buyback gross: $2.09/sh now → $1.48 mid-life → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.01/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$1.47/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (200 ct) | POP / surv
of new CC |
|---|
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP.
Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened.
🛡 Safer · sell 200 × $15 24 Jul 2026 (3d) · higher survival, lighter premiumroll menu if challenged ▾
Survival (stays ≤ $15)
99%
Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 200 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 1 of 3); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic
Buyback gross: $0.69/sh now → $0.49 mid-life → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.01/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.48/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (200 ct) | POP / surv
of new CC |
|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$15 | 31 Jul 2026 | 8d left | +$0.33/sh | +$6,573 cycle +$6,773 | 66% surv 53% |
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$16 | 31 Jul 2026 | 8d left | +$0.02/sh | +$406 cycle +$606 | 78% surv 71% |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$18 | 14 Aug 2026 | 22d left | +$0.09/sh | +$1,860 cycle +$2,060 | 82% surv 79% |
| SS $41 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder |
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$19 | 14 Aug 2026 | 22d left | -$0.00/sh | -$45 cycle +$155 | 84% surv 82% |
| budget: banked $200 debit $45 (23% used ≈ 0.1 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$155 cash · rolled 200 ct earn ≈ $13,318/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell |
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP.
Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened.
⚔ FIGHT CC options · full candidate scan (12 clear the floor), click to expand
Every eligible strike x expiry in the 3-45 DTE band (4 expiries scanned, 12 clear the income floor), each sized to the minimum contracts that clear it. Sorted by survival (safest first): the primary 🎯 is the safest; rows below trade safety for income.
Fortress delta: 0.093 (IBKR) | Recovery@SS: +$4,957 (un-capped fortress gain if stock rallies to SS) | Do-nothing @ SS: $-643
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|
| $13 | 3d | 24 Jul 2026 | $0.10 | 156/200 | $15,600 | $15,678 | 87% | 89% | +$8,187 | -$20,828 | 189.3% | $-21,627 (vs do-nothing $-20,984) |
| $13 | 10d | 31 Jul 2026 | $0.30 | 173/200 | $15,570 | $15,618 | 76% | 81% | +$4,003 | -$19,637 | 178.5% | $-20,453 (vs do-nothing $-19,810) |
| $12.50 | 3d | 24 Jul 2026 | $0.19 | 82/200 | $15,580 | $15,788 | 76% | 81% | +$5,910 | -$14,310 | 130.1% | $-15,035 (vs do-nothing $-14,392) |
| $13 | 17d | 7 Aug 2026 | $0.53 | 167/200 | $15,619 | $15,678 | 71% | 78% | +$2,984 | -$15,115 | 137.4% | $-15,925 (vs do-nothing $-15,282) |
| $13 | 24d | 14 Aug 2026 | $0.71 | 175/200 | $15,531 | $15,575 | 70% | 77% | +$2,841 | -$12,689 | 115.4% | $-13,507 (vs do-nothing $-12,864) |
| $12.50 | 10d | 31 Jul 2026 | $0.43 | 121/200 | $15,609 | $15,748 | 68% | 75% | +$2,938 | -$18,212 | 165.6% | $-18,976 (vs do-nothing $-18,333) |
| $12.50 | 17d | 7 Aug 2026 | $0.68 | 130/200 | $15,600 | $15,724 | 65% | 74% | +$2,329 | -$16,316 | 148.3% | $-17,089 (vs do-nothing $-16,446) |
| $12.50 | 24d | 14 Aug 2026 | $0.87 | 143/200 | $15,551 | $15,652 | 64% | 74% | +$2,418 | -$15,231 | 138.5% | $-16,017 (vs do-nothing $-15,374) |
| $12 | 3d | 24 Jul 2026 | $0.35 | 45/200 | $15,750 | $16,024 | 60% | 72% | +$3,425 | -$9,383 | 85.3% | $-10,071 (vs do-nothing $-9,428) |
| $12 | 24d | 14 Aug 2026 | $1.07 | 117/200 | $15,649 | $15,795 | 58% | 71% | +$2,130 | -$15,972 | 145.2% | $-16,732 (vs do-nothing $-16,089) |
| $12 | 10d | 31 Jul 2026 | $0.61 | 85/200 | $15,555 | $15,758 | 58% | 70% | +$2,027 | -$15,513 | 141.0% | $-16,241 (vs do-nothing $-15,598) |
| $12 | 17d | 7 Aug 2026 | $0.88 | 100/200 | $15,529 | $15,706 | 58% | 70% | +$1,213 | -$15,551 | 141.4% | $-16,294 (vs do-nothing $-15,651) |
Income/mo = FIGHT leg gross, DTE-prorated. Net/mo = FIGHT + conservative CC gross minus hedge cost. POP (mid) = probability stock closes at or below (strike + mid premium) at expiry, per-strike chain IV when available. Survival = CC expires fully worthless. EV/mo = premium minus expected buyback, monthly, with realized vol = IV x 85% (variance risk premium 15%). Cap give-up @ SS = recovery mortgaged on a V-bounce to SS, net of premium. Total P&L @ SS = absolute position P&L if the stock closes at SS; "vs do-nothing" = opportunity cost against holding all 200 contracts at the conservative CC.