MARA-LC40 @ $11.77 UNDERWATER $28.78 (71.0% below BE SS)
⚠ EARNINGS · DO NOT SELL INCOME INTO IT
MARA reports 2026-07-29 (Wed), in 8 days. The recommended CC (24d) expires on/after it, so selling now holds a short call through the earnings gap, a report can blow past your strike overnight and cap you at a loss. Wait for the print, or sell only an expiry that closes BEFORE 2026-07-29.
200 contracts (20,000 sh) | BE SS: $40.55 | CC-SS: $14.65 | IV: HIGH | Accounts: Main:1299
LC: $40 exp 2027-01-15 (entry $0.557/sh)
Economics
| Max Loss | $11,000 | (ND $0.55 + SW $0) x 20000 |
| Normal income ref | $31,059/mo | 95% ann ROI on ML |
| Hedge (static, never rolled) | $0/mo | HP expiry = SP LEAPS; decay ≈ $0/mo (info only, already in marks) |
| Unrealized P&L | $-5,800 | fortress legs from IBKR |
INCOME GOALPOSTS & VELOCITY
50% INCOME FLOOR
$15,529/mo
HEDGE COVER
$0/mo (static)
NORMAL INCOME
$31,059/mo (ATM CC, chain)
IC VELOCITY
0.4 mo to earn back $11,000
ML VELOCITY
0.4 mo to earn back $11,000
NOT a deep drawdown: a CC at CC-SS $14.65 (probe: $14C 17d) still earns $10,588/mo (34% of normal). Sell the normal CC at/above CC-SS; a FIGHT CC below it is not needed here.
🏦 Campaign ledger: seeded, nothing tracked yet. Open short calls and banked credits appear here from the next cycle on; the banked-floor (info) shows how far premium would ratchet the floor, but the recommended CC-SS stays the pure recovery strike.
TECHNICALS (cc_timing weekly gate + daily trigger)
WEEKLYNEUTRAL · %B 50 (live) · RSI 48 · MACD bearish, hist falling
DAILYFALLING (provisional) · RSI 43 · %B 26 · hist falling (nightly)
LEVELSUpper BB (CC ceiling) $15.74 (+34%) · daily UBB $14.96 · 1-wk expected move ±$2 (chain IV)
SETUPNo tilt: engine default. (advisory; floors and picks are chain-only)
⚠ Next earnings 2026-07-29: candidates whose expiry crosses it are flagged in the spectrum; EV is unreliable across earnings.
NOT a deep drawdown. A CC at/above CC-SS $14.65 keeps this fortress whole if assigned, so there is no need to FIGHT below it. Three income options to consider, richer → safer, all at/above CC-SS. Click a card for its if-challenged roll menu.
🎯 Recommended · sell 200 × $15 14 Aug 2026 (24d) · richest strike still ≥80% survivalroll menu if challenged ▾
Survival (stays ≤ $15)
86%
Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 200 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 12 of 24); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic
Buyback gross: $1.89/sh now → $1.34 mid-life → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.28/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$1.06/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (200 ct) | POP / surv
of new CC |
|---|
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP.
Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened.
🛡 Safer · sell 200 × $16 14 Aug 2026 (24d) · higher survival, lighter premiumroll menu if challenged ▾
Survival (stays ≤ $16)
91%
Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 200 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 12 of 24); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic
Buyback gross: $2.09/sh now → $1.48 mid-life → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.01/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$1.47/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (200 ct) | POP / surv
of new CC |
|---|
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP.
Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened.
🛡 Safer · sell 200 × $20 7 Aug 2026 (17d) · higher survival, lighter premiumroll menu if challenged ▾
Survival (stays ≤ $20)
99%
Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 200 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 8 of 17); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic
Buyback gross: $2.59/sh now → $1.83 mid-life → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.01/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$1.82/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (200 ct) | POP / surv
of new CC |
|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$20 | 14 Aug 2026 | 16d left | +$0.13/sh | +$2,689 cycle +$2,889 | 68% surv 56% |
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$20 | 14 Aug 2026 | 16d left | +$0.21/sh | +$4,291 cycle +$4,491 | 70% surv 57% |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$20 | 14 Aug 2026 | 16d left | +$0.21/sh | +$4,291 cycle +$4,491 | 70% surv 57% |
| SS $41 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder |
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP.
Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened.
⚔ FIGHT CC options · full candidate scan (10 clear the floor), click to expand
Every eligible strike x expiry in the 3-45 DTE band (4 expiries scanned, 10 clear the income floor), each sized to the minimum contracts that clear it. Sorted by survival (safest first): the primary 🎯 is the safest; rows below trade safety for income.
Fortress delta: 0.900 (fallback) | Recovery@SS: +$51,829 (un-capped fortress gain if stock rallies to SS) | Do-nothing @ SS: $46,229
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|
| $13 | 10d | 31 Jul 2026 | $0.30 | 173/200 | $15,570 | $15,618 | 75% | 80% | +$2,610 | -$23,345 | 212.2% | $22,712 (vs do-nothing $-23,518) |
| $13 | 17d | 7 Aug 2026 | $0.53 | 167/200 | $15,619 | $15,678 | 71% | 78% | +$2,984 | -$18,694 | 169.9% | $27,368 (vs do-nothing $-18,861) |
| $13 | 24d | 14 Aug 2026 | $0.71 | 175/200 | $15,531 | $15,575 | 70% | 77% | +$2,922 | -$16,440 | 149.5% | $29,615 (vs do-nothing $-16,615) |
| $12.50 | 10d | 31 Jul 2026 | $0.43 | 121/200 | $15,609 | $15,748 | 67% | 75% | +$1,762 | -$20,805 | 189.1% | $25,304 (vs do-nothing $-20,926) |
| $12.50 | 17d | 7 Aug 2026 | $0.68 | 130/200 | $15,600 | $15,724 | 65% | 74% | +$2,376 | -$19,102 | 173.7% | $26,997 (vs do-nothing $-19,232) |
| $12.50 | 24d | 14 Aug 2026 | $0.87 | 143/200 | $15,551 | $15,652 | 64% | 74% | +$2,405 | -$18,296 | 166.3% | $27,791 (vs do-nothing $-18,439) |
| $12 | 3d | 24 Jul 2026 | $0.13 | 117/200 | $15,561 | $15,707 | 60% | 65% | $-15,377 | -$29,442 | 267.7% | $16,670 (vs do-nothing $-29,559) |
| $12 | 24d | 14 Aug 2026 | $1.07 | 117/200 | $15,649 | $15,795 | 58% | 71% | +$2,074 | -$18,479 | 168.0% | $27,633 (vs do-nothing $-18,596) |
| $12 | 10d | 31 Jul 2026 | $0.61 | 85/200 | $15,555 | $15,758 | 58% | 70% | +$1,203 | -$17,335 | 157.6% | $28,809 (vs do-nothing $-17,420) |
| $12 | 17d | 7 Aug 2026 | $0.88 | 100/200 | $15,529 | $15,706 | 58% | 71% | +$2,031 | -$17,694 | 160.9% | $28,435 (vs do-nothing $-17,794) |
Income/mo = FIGHT leg gross, DTE-prorated. Net/mo = FIGHT + conservative CC gross minus hedge cost. POP (mid) = probability stock closes at or below (strike + mid premium) at expiry, per-strike chain IV when available. Survival = CC expires fully worthless. EV/mo = premium minus expected buyback, monthly, with realized vol = IV x 85% (variance risk premium 15%). Cap give-up @ SS = recovery mortgaged on a V-bounce to SS, net of premium. Total P&L @ SS = absolute position P&L if the stock closes at SS; "vs do-nothing" = opportunity cost against holding all 200 contracts at the conservative CC.