MARA-LC40 @ $11.82 UNDERWATER $28.73 (70.9% below BE SS)
⚠ EARNINGS · DO NOT SELL INCOME INTO IT
MARA reports 2026-07-29 (Wed), in 8 days. The recommended CC (24d) expires on/after it, so selling now holds a short call through the earnings gap, a report can blow past your strike overnight and cap you at a loss. Wait for the print, or sell only an expiry that closes BEFORE 2026-07-29.
200 contracts (20,000 sh) | BE SS: $40.55 | CC-SS: $14.54 | IV: HIGH | Accounts: Main:1299
LC: $40 exp 2027-01-15 (entry $0.557/sh)
Economics
| Max Loss | $11,000 | (ND $0.55 + SW $0) x 20000 |
| Normal income ref | $31,059/mo | 95% ann ROI on ML |
| Hedge (static, never rolled) | $0/mo | HP expiry = SP LEAPS; decay ≈ $0/mo (info only, already in marks) |
| Unrealized P&L | $-5,800 | fortress legs from IBKR |
INCOME GOALPOSTS & VELOCITY
50% INCOME FLOOR
$15,529/mo
HEDGE COVER
$0/mo (static)
NORMAL INCOME
$31,059/mo (ATM CC, chain)
IC VELOCITY
0.4 mo to earn back $11,000
ML VELOCITY
0.4 mo to earn back $11,000
NOT a deep drawdown: a CC at CC-SS $14.54 (probe: $14.5C 17d) still earns $8,118/mo (26% of normal). Sell the normal CC at/above CC-SS; a FIGHT CC below it is not needed here.
🏦 Campaign ledger: seeded, nothing tracked yet. Open short calls and banked credits appear here from the next cycle on; the banked-floor (info) shows how far premium would ratchet the floor, but the recommended CC-SS stays the pure recovery strike.
TECHNICALS (cc_timing weekly gate + daily trigger)
WEEKLYNEUTRAL · %B 51 (live) · RSI 48 · MACD bearish, hist falling
DAILYFALLING (provisional) · RSI 43 · %B 28 · hist falling (nightly)
LEVELSUpper BB (CC ceiling) $15.74 (+33%) · daily UBB $14.96 · 1-wk expected move ±$2 (chain IV)
SETUPNo tilt: engine default. (advisory; floors and picks are chain-only)
⚠ Next earnings 2026-07-29: candidates whose expiry crosses it are flagged in the spectrum; EV is unreliable across earnings.
NOT a deep drawdown. A CC at/above CC-SS $14.54 keeps this fortress whole if assigned, so there is no need to FIGHT below it. Three income options to consider, richer → safer, all at/above CC-SS. Click a card for its if-challenged roll menu.
🎯 Recommended · sell 200 × $15 14 Aug 2026 (24d) · richest strike still ≥80% survivalroll menu if challenged ▾
Survival (stays ≤ $15)
85%
Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 200 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 12 of 24); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic
Buyback gross: $1.85/sh now → $1.31 mid-life → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.28/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$1.03/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (200 ct) | POP / surv
of new CC |
|---|
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP.
Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened.
🛡 Safer · sell 200 × $15.50 7 Aug 2026 (17d) · higher survival, lighter premiumroll menu if challenged ▾
Survival (stays ≤ $15.50)
91%
Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 200 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 8 of 17); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic
Buyback gross: $1.67/sh now → $1.18 mid-life (likely $0.92–$1.54) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.13/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$1.05/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours
📊 Across 418 simulated challenges: the $16 strike is typically first touched on day 11 of 17, at $16 (overshoots $0.48). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (200 ct) | POP / surv
of new CC |
|---|
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$16 | 14 Aug 2026 | 16d left | +$0.13/sh | +$2,665 cycle +$5,265 [+$1,477…+$5,929] · 94% credit | 69% surv 57% |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$16 | 14 Aug 2026 | 16d left | +$0.13/sh | +$2,665 cycle +$5,265 [+$1,477…+$5,929] · 94% credit | 69% surv 57% |
| SS $41 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder |
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$16 | 14 Aug 2026 | 16d left | +$0.12/sh | +$2,360 cycle +$4,960 [+$902…+$5,856] · 88% credit | 68% surv 55% |
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$16 | 14 Aug 2026 | 16d left | -$0.08/sh | -$1,545 cycle +$1,055 [-$3,237…+$1,345] · 35% credit | 72% surv 62% |
| budget: banked $2,600 debit $1,545 (59% used ≈ 1.5 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$1,055 cash · rolled 200 ct earn ≈ $41,539/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell |
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP.
Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened.
🛡 Safer · sell 200 × $16 24 Jul 2026 (3d) · higher survival, lighter premiumroll menu if challenged ▾
Survival (stays ≤ $16)
100%
Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 200 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 1 of 3); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic
Buyback gross: $0.73/sh now → $0.51 mid-life → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.01/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.50/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (200 ct) | POP / surv
of new CC |
|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$16 | 31 Jul 2026 | 8d left | +$0.39/sh | +$7,766 cycle +$7,966 | 66% surv 53% |
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$17 | 31 Jul 2026 | 8d left | +$0.08/sh | +$1,520 cycle +$1,720 | 76% surv 69% |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$20 | 14 Aug 2026 | 22d left | +$0.07/sh | +$1,466 cycle +$1,666 | 83% surv 80% |
| SS $41 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder |
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP.
Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened.
⚔ FIGHT CC options · full candidate scan (12 clear the floor), click to expand
Every eligible strike x expiry in the 3-45 DTE band (4 expiries scanned, 12 clear the income floor), each sized to the minimum contracts that clear it. Sorted by survival (safest first): the primary 🎯 is the safest; rows below trade safety for income.
Fortress delta: 0.093 (IBKR) | Recovery@SS: +$5,060 (un-capped fortress gain if stock rallies to SS) | Do-nothing @ SS: $-540
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|
| $13 | 3d | 24 Jul 2026 | $0.10 | 156/200 | $15,600 | $15,678 | 86% | 88% | +$7,288 | -$22,472 | 204.3% | $-23,168 (vs do-nothing $-22,628) |
| $13 | 10d | 31 Jul 2026 | $0.30 | 173/200 | $15,570 | $15,618 | 75% | 80% | +$3,338 | -$21,461 | 195.1% | $-22,173 (vs do-nothing $-21,634) |
| $12.50 | 3d | 24 Jul 2026 | $0.19 | 82/200 | $15,580 | $15,788 | 75% | 80% | +$4,992 | -$15,174 | 137.9% | $-15,796 (vs do-nothing $-15,256) |
| $13 | 17d | 7 Aug 2026 | $0.53 | 167/200 | $15,619 | $15,678 | 71% | 77% | +$2,686 | -$16,875 | 153.4% | $-17,582 (vs do-nothing $-17,042) |
| $13 | 24d | 14 Aug 2026 | $0.71 | 175/200 | $15,531 | $15,575 | 69% | 76% | +$2,436 | -$14,534 | 132.1% | $-15,249 (vs do-nothing $-14,709) |
| $12.50 | 10d | 31 Jul 2026 | $0.43 | 121/200 | $15,609 | $15,748 | 67% | 75% | +$2,289 | -$19,487 | 177.2% | $-20,148 (vs do-nothing $-19,608) |
| $12.50 | 17d | 7 Aug 2026 | $0.68 | 130/200 | $15,600 | $15,724 | 64% | 73% | +$2,001 | -$17,686 | 160.8% | $-18,356 (vs do-nothing $-17,816) |
| $12.50 | 24d | 14 Aug 2026 | $0.87 | 143/200 | $15,551 | $15,652 | 64% | 73% | +$2,026 | -$16,738 | 152.2% | $-17,421 (vs do-nothing $-16,881) |
| $12 | 3d | 24 Jul 2026 | $0.35 | 45/200 | $15,750 | $16,024 | 58% | 70% | +$2,950 | -$9,857 | 89.6% | $-10,442 (vs do-nothing $-9,902) |
| $12 | 24d | 14 Aug 2026 | $1.07 | 117/200 | $15,649 | $15,795 | 57% | 70% | +$1,755 | -$17,205 | 156.4% | $-17,862 (vs do-nothing $-17,322) |
| $12 | 17d | 7 Aug 2026 | $0.88 | 100/200 | $15,529 | $15,706 | 57% | 70% | +$1,590 | -$16,605 | 151.0% | $-17,245 (vs do-nothing $-16,705) |
| $12 | 10d | 31 Jul 2026 | $0.61 | 85/200 | $15,555 | $15,758 | 57% | 69% | +$1,420 | -$16,409 | 149.2% | $-17,034 (vs do-nothing $-16,494) |
Income/mo = FIGHT leg gross, DTE-prorated. Net/mo = FIGHT + conservative CC gross minus hedge cost. POP (mid) = probability stock closes at or below (strike + mid premium) at expiry, per-strike chain IV when available. Survival = CC expires fully worthless. EV/mo = premium minus expected buyback, monthly, with realized vol = IV x 85% (variance risk premium 15%). Cap give-up @ SS = recovery mortgaged on a V-bounce to SS, net of premium. Total P&L @ SS = absolute position P&L if the stock closes at SS; "vs do-nothing" = opportunity cost against holding all 200 contracts at the conservative CC.