MARA-LC40 @ $11.99 UNDERWATER $28.56 (70.4% below BE SS)
⚠ EARNINGS · DO NOT SELL INCOME INTO IT
MARA reports 2026-07-29 (Wed), in 8 days. The recommended CC (17d) expires on/after it, so selling now holds a short call through the earnings gap, a report can blow past your strike overnight and cap you at a loss. Wait for the print, or sell only an expiry that closes BEFORE 2026-07-29.
200 contracts (20,000 sh) | BE SS: $40.55 | CC-SS: $14.39 | IV: HIGH | Accounts: Main:1299
LC: $40 exp 2027-01-15 (entry $0.557/sh)
Economics
| Max Loss | $11,000 | (ND $0.55 + SW $0) x 20000 |
| Normal income ref | $34,941/mo | 95% ann ROI on ML |
| Hedge (static, never rolled) | $0/mo | HP expiry = SP LEAPS; decay ≈ $0/mo (info only, already in marks) |
| Unrealized P&L | $-4,800 | fortress legs from IBKR |
INCOME GOALPOSTS & VELOCITY
50% INCOME FLOOR
$17,471/mo
HEDGE COVER
$0/mo (static)
NORMAL INCOME
$34,941/mo (ATM CC, chain)
IC VELOCITY
0.3 mo to earn back $11,000
ML VELOCITY
0.3 mo to earn back $11,000
NOT a deep drawdown: a CC at CC-SS $14.39 (probe: $14.5C 17d) still earns $10,235/mo (29% of normal). Sell the normal CC at/above CC-SS; a FIGHT CC below it is not needed here.
🏦 Campaign ledger: seeded, nothing tracked yet. Open short calls and banked credits appear here from the next cycle on; the banked-floor (info) shows how far premium would ratchet the floor, but the recommended CC-SS stays the pure recovery strike.
TECHNICALS (cc_timing weekly gate + daily trigger)
WEEKLYNEUTRAL · %B 53 (live) · RSI 50 · MACD bullish, hist falling
DAILYFALLING (provisional) · RSI 44 · %B 33 · hist rising (nightly)
LEVELSUpper BB (CC ceiling) $15.76 (+31%) · daily UBB $14.66 · 1-wk expected move ±$2 (chain IV)
SETUPNo tilt: engine default. (advisory; floors and picks are chain-only)
⚠ Next earnings 2026-07-29: candidates whose expiry crosses it are flagged in the spectrum; EV is unreliable across earnings.
NOT a deep drawdown. A CC at/above CC-SS $14.39 keeps this fortress whole if assigned, so there is no need to FIGHT below it. Three income options to consider, richer → safer, all at/above CC-SS. Click a card for its if-challenged roll menu.
🎯 Recommended · sell 200 × $14.50 7 Aug 2026 (17d) · richest strike still ≥80% survivalroll menu if challenged ▾
Survival (stays ≤ $14.50)
84%
Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 200 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 8 of 17); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic
Buyback gross: $1.48/sh now → $1.05 mid-life (likely $0.99–$1.51) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.29/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.76/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours
📊 Across 814 simulated challenges: the $14 strike is typically first touched on day 9 of 17, at $15 (overshoots $0.46). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (200 ct) | POP / surv
of new CC |
|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$14 | 14 Aug 2026 | 16d left | +$0.23/sh | +$4,668 cycle +$10,468 [+$3,235…+$6,315] · 100% credit | 68% surv 55% |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$15 | 14 Aug 2026 | 16d left | +$0.23/sh | +$4,674 cycle +$10,474 [+$3,262…+$6,311] · 100% credit | 69% surv 55% |
| SS $41 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder |
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$15 | 14 Aug 2026 | 16d left | -$0.07/sh | -$1,359 cycle +$4,441 [-$3,865…-$252] · 22% credit | 70% surv 60% |
| budget: banked $5,800 debit $1,359 (23% used ≈ 0.6 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$4,441 cash · rolled 200 ct earn ≈ $36,644/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell |
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP.
Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened.
🛡 Safer · sell 200 × $15.50 7 Aug 2026 (17d) · higher survival, lighter premiumroll menu if challenged ▾
Survival (stays ≤ $15.50)
90%
Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 200 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 8 of 17); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic
Buyback gross: $1.64/sh now → $1.16 mid-life (likely $0.99–$1.54) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.02/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$1.14/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours
📊 Across 468 simulated challenges: the $16 strike is typically first touched on day 11 of 17, at $16 (overshoots $0.47). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (200 ct) | POP / surv
of new CC |
|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$16 | 14 Aug 2026 | 16d left | +$0.26/sh | +$5,173 cycle +$5,573 [+$4,267…+$7,839] · 100% credit | 69% surv 55% |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$16 | 14 Aug 2026 | 16d left | +$0.26/sh | +$5,189 cycle +$5,589 [+$4,302…+$7,841] · 100% credit | 69% surv 55% |
| SS $41 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder |
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP.
Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened.
🛡 Safer · sell 200 × $28 31 Jul 2026 (10d) · higher survival, lighter premiumroll menu if challenged ▾
Survival (stays ≤ $28)
100%
Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 200 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 5 of 10); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic
Buyback gross: $3.17/sh now → $2.24 mid-life → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.01/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$2.23/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (200 ct) | POP / surv
of new CC |
|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$28 | 7 Aug 2026 | 12d left | +$1.00/sh | +$19,969 cycle +$20,169 | 70% surv 56% |
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$29 | 7 Aug 2026 | 12d left | +$0.15/sh | +$3,012 cycle +$3,212 | 70% surv 61% |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$30 | 14 Aug 2026 | 19d left | +$0.76/sh | +$15,150 cycle +$15,350 | 73% surv 65% |
| SS $41 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder |
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP.
Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened.
⚔ FIGHT CC options · full candidate scan (11 clear the floor), click to expand
Every eligible strike x expiry in the 3-45 DTE band (4 expiries scanned, 11 clear the income floor), each sized to the minimum contracts that clear it. Sorted by survival (safest first): the primary 🎯 is the safest; rows below trade safety for income.
Fortress delta: 0.094 (IBKR) | Recovery@SS: +$4,518 (un-capped fortress gain if stock rallies to SS) | Do-nothing @ SS: $-82
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|
| $13 | 3d | 24 Jul 2026 | $0.13 | 135/200 | $17,550 | $17,745 | 83% | 85% | +$7,892 | -$17,052 | 155.0% | $-17,270 (vs do-nothing $-17,187) |
| $13 | 10d | 31 Jul 2026 | $0.37 | 158/200 | $17,538 | $17,664 | 72% | 78% | +$4,040 | -$16,166 | 147.0% | $-16,406 (vs do-nothing $-16,324) |
| $12.50 | 3d | 24 Jul 2026 | $0.26 | 68/200 | $17,680 | $18,076 | 69% | 77% | +$5,911 | -$11,105 | 101.0% | $-11,255 (vs do-nothing $-11,173) |
| $13 | 17d | 7 Aug 2026 | $0.52 | 191/200 | $17,527 | $17,554 | 69% | 76% | +$997 | -$16,677 | 151.6% | $-16,950 (vs do-nothing $-16,868) |
| $12.50 | 10d | 31 Jul 2026 | $0.54 | 108/200 | $17,496 | $17,772 | 63% | 73% | +$3,322 | -$14,614 | 132.9% | $-14,804 (vs do-nothing $-14,722) |
| $12.50 | 17d | 7 Aug 2026 | $0.78 | 127/200 | $17,481 | $17,700 | 62% | 73% | +$2,743 | -$14,137 | 128.5% | $-14,346 (vs do-nothing $-14,264) |
| $12.50 | 24d | 14 Aug 2026 | $0.90 | 156/200 | $17,550 | $17,682 | 61% | 72% | +$1,400 | -$15,493 | 140.8% | $-15,731 (vs do-nothing $-15,649) |
| $12 | 24d | 14 Aug 2026 | $1.19 | 118/200 | $17,552 | $17,798 | 55% | 70% | +$2,300 | -$14,197 | 129.1% | $-14,397 (vs do-nothing $-14,315) |
| $12 | 17d | 7 Aug 2026 | $0.99 | 100/200 | $17,471 | $17,771 | 54% | 69% | +$2,181 | -$14,031 | 127.6% | $-14,214 (vs do-nothing $-14,131) |
| $12 | 10d | 31 Jul 2026 | $0.72 | 81/200 | $17,496 | $17,853 | 53% | 68% | +$1,753 | -$13,552 | 123.2% | $-13,716 (vs do-nothing $-13,633) |
| $12 | 3d | 24 Jul 2026 | $0.46 | 38/200 | $17,480 | $17,966 | 52% | 68% | +$3,743 | -$7,346 | 66.8% | $-7,466 (vs do-nothing $-7,384) |
Income/mo = FIGHT leg gross, DTE-prorated. Net/mo = FIGHT + conservative CC gross minus hedge cost. POP (mid) = probability stock closes at or below (strike + mid premium) at expiry, per-strike chain IV when available. Survival = CC expires fully worthless. EV/mo = premium minus expected buyback, monthly, with realized vol = IV x 85% (variance risk premium 15%). Cap give-up @ SS = recovery mortgaged on a V-bounce to SS, net of premium. Total P&L @ SS = absolute position P&L if the stock closes at SS; "vs do-nothing" = opportunity cost against holding all 200 contracts at the conservative CC.