MARA-LC40 @ $12.15 UNDERWATER $28.39 (70.0% below BE SS)
⚠ EARNINGS · DO NOT SELL INCOME INTO IT
MARA reports 2026-07-29 (Wed), in 7 days. The recommended CC (23d) expires on/after it, so selling now holds a short call through the earnings gap, a report can blow past your strike overnight and cap you at a loss. Wait for the print, or sell only an expiry that closes BEFORE 2026-07-29.
200 contracts (20,000 sh) | BE SS: $40.55 | CC-SS: $14.70 | IV: HIGH | Accounts: Main:1299
LC: $40 exp 2027-01-15 (entry $0.557/sh)
Economics
| Max Loss | $11,000 | (ND $0.55 + SW $0) x 20000 |
| Normal income ref | $35,438/mo | 95% ann ROI on ML |
| Hedge (static, never rolled) | $0/mo | HP expiry = SP LEAPS; decay ≈ $0/mo (info only, already in marks) |
| Unrealized P&L | $-5,100 | fortress legs from IBKR |
INCOME GOALPOSTS & VELOCITY
50% INCOME FLOOR
$17,719/mo
HEDGE COVER
$0/mo (static)
NORMAL INCOME
$35,438/mo (ATM CC, chain)
IC VELOCITY
0.3 mo to earn back $11,000
ML VELOCITY
0.3 mo to earn back $11,000
NOT a deep drawdown: a CC at CC-SS $14.70 (probe: $14.5C 16d) still earns $11,625/mo (33% of normal). Sell the normal CC at/above CC-SS; a FIGHT CC below it is not needed here.
🏦 Campaign ledger: seeded, nothing tracked yet. Open short calls and banked credits appear here from the next cycle on; the banked-floor (info) shows how far premium would ratchet the floor, but the recommended CC-SS stays the pure recovery strike.
TECHNICALS (cc_timing weekly gate + daily trigger)
WEEKLYNEUTRAL · %B 55 (live) · RSI 50 · MACD bullish, hist falling
DAILYMIXED (provisional) · RSI 46 · %B 37 · hist rising (nightly)
LEVELSUpper BB (CC ceiling) $15.76 (+30%) · daily UBB $14.66 · 1-wk expected move ±$2 (chain IV)
SETUPNo tilt: engine default. (advisory; floors and picks are chain-only)
⚠ Next earnings 2026-07-29: candidates whose expiry crosses it are flagged in the spectrum; EV is unreliable across earnings.
NOT a deep drawdown. A CC at/above CC-SS $14.70 keeps this fortress whole if assigned, so there is no need to FIGHT below it. Three income options to consider, richer → safer, all at/above CC-SS. Click a card for its if-challenged roll menu.
🎯 Recommended · sell 200 × $15 14 Aug 2026 (23d) · richest strike still ≥80% survivalroll menu if challenged ▾
Survival (stays ≤ $15)
83%
Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 200 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 11 of 23); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic
Buyback gross: $1.80/sh now → $1.27 mid-life → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.37/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.90/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (200 ct) | POP / surv
of new CC |
|---|
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP.
Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened.
🛡 Safer · sell 200 × $15.50 7 Aug 2026 (16d) · higher survival, lighter premiumroll menu if challenged ▾
Survival (stays ≤ $15.50)
89%
Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 200 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 8 of 16); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic
Buyback gross: $1.60/sh now → $1.13 mid-life (likely $0.90–$1.50) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.18/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.95/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours
📊 Across 519 simulated challenges: the $16 strike is typically first touched on day 10 of 16, at $16 (overshoots $0.48). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (200 ct) | POP / surv
of new CC |
|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$16 | 14 Aug 2026 | 15d left | +$0.32/sh | +$6,353 cycle +$9,953 [+$5,874…+$9,808] · 100% credit | 69% surv 55% |
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$16 | 14 Aug 2026 | 15d left | +$0.14/sh | +$2,774 cycle +$6,374 [+$1,857…+$5,898] · 98% credit | 71% surv 58% |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$16 | 14 Aug 2026 | 15d left | +$0.14/sh | +$2,774 cycle +$6,374 [+$1,857…+$5,898] · 98% credit | 71% surv 58% |
| SS $41 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder |
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$16 | 14 Aug 2026 | 15d left | -$0.06/sh | -$1,169 cycle +$2,431 [-$2,582…+$1,367] · 40% credit | 73% surv 64% |
| budget: banked $3,600 debit $1,169 (32% used ≈ 0.8 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$2,431 cash · rolled 200 ct earn ≈ $42,857/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell |
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP.
Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened.
🛡 Safer · sell 200 × $28 31 Jul 2026 (9d) · higher survival, lighter premiumroll menu if challenged ▾
Survival (stays ≤ $28)
100%
Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 200 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 9); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic
Buyback gross: $3.11/sh now → $2.20 mid-life → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.01/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$2.19/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (200 ct) | POP / surv
of new CC |
|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$28 | 7 Aug 2026 | 12d left | +$1.11/sh | +$22,230 cycle +$22,430 | 70% surv 56% |
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$30 | 7 Aug 2026 | 12d left | +$0.26/sh | +$5,194 cycle +$5,394 | 73% surv 64% |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$31 | 14 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$0.02/sh | +$394 cycle +$594 | 74% surv 67% |
| SS $41 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder |
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP.
Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened.
⚔ FIGHT CC options · full candidate scan (16 clear the floor), click to expand
Every eligible strike x expiry in the 2-45 DTE band (4 expiries scanned, 16 clear the income floor), each sized to the minimum contracts that clear it. Sorted by survival (safest first): the primary 🎯 is the safest; rows below trade safety for income.
Fortress delta: 0.093 (IBKR) | Recovery@SS: +$4,725 (un-capped fortress gain if stock rallies to SS) | Do-nothing @ SS: $-175
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|
| $13.50 | 2d | 24 Jul 2026 | $0.07 | 169/200 | $17,745 | $17,803 | 93% | 94% | +$14,047 | -$19,020 | 172.9% | $-19,364 (vs do-nothing $-19,189) |
| $13 | 2d | 24 Jul 2026 | $0.16 | 74/200 | $17,760 | $17,996 | 82% | 86% | +$10,859 | -$11,362 | 103.3% | $-11,611 (vs do-nothing $-11,436) |
| $13.50 | 9d | 31 Jul 2026 | $0.29 | 184/200 | $17,787 | $17,817 | 78% | 82% | +$6,100 | -$16,660 | 151.5% | $-17,019 (vs do-nothing $-16,844) |
| $13.50 | 16d | 7 Aug 2026 | $0.53 | 179/200 | $17,788 | $17,828 | 73% | 79% | +$4,689 | -$11,911 | 108.3% | $-12,265 (vs do-nothing $-12,090) |
| $13.50 | 23d | 14 Aug 2026 | $0.71 | 192/200 | $17,781 | $17,796 | 71% | 78% | +$4,520 | -$9,320 | 84.7% | $-9,687 (vs do-nothing $-9,512) |
| $13 | 9d | 31 Jul 2026 | $0.41 | 130/200 | $17,767 | $17,898 | 70% | 77% | +$4,514 | -$16,711 | 151.9% | $-17,015 (vs do-nothing $-16,841) |
| $13 | 16d | 7 Aug 2026 | $0.69 | 137/200 | $17,724 | $17,842 | 66% | 75% | +$4,089 | -$13,774 | 125.2% | $-14,086 (vs do-nothing $-13,911) |
| $12.50 | 2d | 24 Jul 2026 | $0.30 | 40/200 | $18,000 | $18,300 | 66% | 78% | +$8,268 | -$7,582 | 68.9% | $-7,797 (vs do-nothing $-7,622) |
| $13 | 23d | 14 Aug 2026 | $0.87 | 157/200 | $17,816 | $17,897 | 65% | 75% | +$3,868 | -$12,959 | 117.8% | $-13,291 (vs do-nothing $-13,116) |
| $12.50 | 9d | 31 Jul 2026 | $0.61 | 88/200 | $17,893 | $18,103 | 60% | 72% | +$4,006 | -$13,952 | 126.8% | $-14,215 (vs do-nothing $-14,040) |
| $12.50 | 16d | 7 Aug 2026 | $0.87 | 109/200 | $17,781 | $17,951 | 59% | 72% | +$3,245 | -$14,447 | 131.3% | $-14,731 (vs do-nothing $-14,556) |
| $12.50 | 23d | 14 Aug 2026 | $1.06 | 129/200 | $17,836 | $17,969 | 59% | 72% | +$3,262 | -$14,647 | 133.2% | $-14,951 (vs do-nothing $-14,776) |
| $12 | 23d | 14 Aug 2026 | $1.31 | 104/200 | $17,770 | $17,950 | 53% | 69% | +$3,011 | -$14,409 | 131.0% | $-14,687 (vs do-nothing $-14,513) |
Show 3 more candidates (lower strikes: more income, lower survival)
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|
| $12 | 16d | 7 Aug 2026 | $1.10 | 86/200 | $17,738 | $17,951 | 52% | 68% | +$2,635 | -$13,721 | 124.7% | $-13,982 (vs do-nothing $-13,807) |
| $12 | 9d | 31 Jul 2026 | $0.82 | 65/200 | $17,767 | $18,020 | 50% | 67% | +$2,556 | -$12,190 | 110.8% | $-12,430 (vs do-nothing $-12,255) |
| $12 | 2d | 24 Jul 2026 | $0.53 | 23/200 | $18,285 | $18,617 | 44% | 68% | +$5,112 | -$4,981 | 45.3% | $-5,178 (vs do-nothing $-5,004) |
Income/mo = FIGHT leg gross, DTE-prorated. Net/mo = FIGHT + conservative CC gross minus hedge cost. POP (mid) = probability stock closes at or below (strike + mid premium) at expiry, per-strike chain IV when available. Survival = CC expires fully worthless. EV/mo = premium minus expected buyback, monthly, with realized vol = IV x 85% (variance risk premium 15%). Cap give-up @ SS = recovery mortgaged on a V-bounce to SS, net of premium. Total P&L @ SS = absolute position P&L if the stock closes at SS; "vs do-nothing" = opportunity cost against holding all 200 contracts at the conservative CC.