MARA-LC40 @ $12.18 UNDERWATER $28.37 (70.0% below BE SS)
⚠ EARNINGS · DO NOT SELL INCOME INTO IT
MARA reports 2026-07-29 (Wed), in 7 days. The recommended CC (23d) expires on/after it, so selling now holds a short call through the earnings gap, a report can blow past your strike overnight and cap you at a loss. Wait for the print, or sell only an expiry that closes BEFORE 2026-07-29.
200 contracts (20,000 sh) | BE SS: $40.55 | CC-SS: $14.68 | IV: HIGH | Accounts: Main:1299
LC: $40 exp 2027-01-15 (entry $0.557/sh)
Economics
| Max Loss | $11,000 | (ND $0.55 + SW $0) x 20000 |
| Normal income ref | $36,750/mo | 95% ann ROI on ML |
| Hedge (static, never rolled) | $0/mo | HP expiry = SP LEAPS; decay ≈ $0/mo (info only, already in marks) |
| Unrealized P&L | $-5,000 | fortress legs from IBKR |
INCOME GOALPOSTS & VELOCITY
50% INCOME FLOOR
$18,375/mo
HEDGE COVER
$0/mo (static)
NORMAL INCOME
$36,750/mo (ATM CC, chain)
IC VELOCITY
0.3 mo to earn back $11,000
ML VELOCITY
0.3 mo to earn back $11,000
NOT a deep drawdown: a CC at CC-SS $14.68 (probe: $14.5C 16d) still earns $12,375/mo (34% of normal). Sell the normal CC at/above CC-SS; a FIGHT CC below it is not needed here.
🏦 Campaign ledger: seeded, nothing tracked yet. Open short calls and banked credits appear here from the next cycle on; the banked-floor (info) shows how far premium would ratchet the floor, but the recommended CC-SS stays the pure recovery strike.
TECHNICALS (cc_timing weekly gate + daily trigger)
WEEKLYNEUTRAL · %B 55 (live) · RSI 50 · MACD bullish, hist falling
DAILYMIXED (provisional) · RSI 46 · %B 37 · hist rising (nightly)
LEVELSUpper BB (CC ceiling) $15.77 (+29%) · daily UBB $14.66 · 1-wk expected move ±$2 (chain IV)
SETUPNo tilt: engine default. (advisory; floors and picks are chain-only)
⚠ Next earnings 2026-07-29: candidates whose expiry crosses it are flagged in the spectrum; EV is unreliable across earnings.
NOT a deep drawdown. A CC at/above CC-SS $14.68 keeps this fortress whole if assigned, so there is no need to FIGHT below it. Three income options to consider, richer → safer, all at/above CC-SS. Click a card for its if-challenged roll menu.
🎯 Recommended · sell 200 × $15 14 Aug 2026 (23d) · richest strike still ≥80% survivalroll menu if challenged ▾
Survival (stays ≤ $15)
83%
Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 200 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 11 of 23); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic
Buyback gross: $1.84/sh now → $1.30 mid-life → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.37/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.93/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (200 ct) | POP / surv
of new CC |
|---|
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP.
Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened.
🛡 Safer · sell 200 × $15.50 7 Aug 2026 (16d) · higher survival, lighter premiumroll menu if challenged ▾
Survival (stays ≤ $15.50)
89%
Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 200 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 8 of 16); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic
Buyback gross: $1.61/sh now → $1.14 mid-life (likely $0.91–$1.52) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.19/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.95/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours
📊 Across 521 simulated challenges: the $16 strike is typically first touched on day 10 of 16, at $16 (overshoots $0.48). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (200 ct) | POP / surv
of new CC |
|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$16 | 14 Aug 2026 | 15d left | +$0.33/sh | +$6,618 cycle +$10,418 [+$6,105…+$10,077] · 100% credit | 70% surv 55% |
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$16 | 14 Aug 2026 | 15d left | +$0.17/sh | +$3,326 cycle +$7,126 [+$2,434…+$6,444] · 99% credit | 71% surv 58% |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$16 | 14 Aug 2026 | 15d left | +$0.17/sh | +$3,326 cycle +$7,126 [+$2,434…+$6,444] · 99% credit | 71% surv 58% |
| SS $41 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder |
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$16 | 14 Aug 2026 | 15d left | -$0.04/sh | -$824 cycle +$2,976 [-$2,247…+$1,748] · 43% credit | 73% surv 63% |
| budget: banked $3,800 debit $824 (22% used ≈ 0.5 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$2,976 cash · rolled 200 ct earn ≈ $44,056/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell |
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP.
Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened.
🛡 Safer · sell 200 × $28 31 Jul 2026 (9d) · higher survival, lighter premiumroll menu if challenged ▾
Survival (stays ≤ $28)
100%
Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 200 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 9); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic
Buyback gross: $3.23/sh now → $2.29 mid-life → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.01/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$2.28/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (200 ct) | POP / surv
of new CC |
|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$28 | 7 Aug 2026 | 12d left | +$1.18/sh | +$23,529 cycle +$23,729 | 71% surv 56% |
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$30 | 7 Aug 2026 | 12d left | +$0.29/sh | +$5,818 cycle +$6,018 | 74% surv 64% |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$30 | 14 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$0.11/sh | +$2,218 cycle +$2,418 | 73% surv 66% |
| SS $41 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder |
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP.
Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened.
⚔ FIGHT CC options · full candidate scan (16 clear the floor), click to expand
Every eligible strike x expiry in the 2-45 DTE band (4 expiries scanned, 16 clear the income floor), each sized to the minimum contracts that clear it. Sorted by survival (safest first): the primary 🎯 is the safest; rows below trade safety for income.
Fortress delta: 0.095 (IBKR) | Recovery@SS: +$4,749 (un-capped fortress gain if stock rallies to SS) | Do-nothing @ SS: $-51
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|
| $13.50 | 2d | 24 Jul 2026 | $0.08 | 154/200 | $18,480 | $18,566 | 92% | 94% | +$14,663 | -$16,933 | 153.9% | $-17,138 (vs do-nothing $-17,087) |
| $13 | 2d | 24 Jul 2026 | $0.18 | 69/200 | $18,630 | $18,876 | 82% | 87% | +$12,417 | -$10,347 | 94.1% | $-10,467 (vs do-nothing $-10,416) |
| $13.50 | 9d | 31 Jul 2026 | $0.32 | 173/200 | $18,453 | $18,504 | 78% | 83% | +$7,746 | -$14,870 | 135.2% | $-15,094 (vs do-nothing $-15,043) |
| $13.50 | 16d | 7 Aug 2026 | $0.55 | 179/200 | $18,459 | $18,499 | 73% | 79% | +$5,275 | -$11,269 | 102.4% | $-11,499 (vs do-nothing $-11,448) |
| $13.50 | 23d | 14 Aug 2026 | $0.71 | 199/200 | $18,429 | $18,431 | 71% | 78% | +$4,404 | -$9,344 | 84.9% | $-9,594 (vs do-nothing $-9,543) |
| $13 | 9d | 31 Jul 2026 | $0.43 | 129/200 | $18,490 | $18,623 | 70% | 77% | +$5,525 | -$16,119 | 146.5% | $-16,299 (vs do-nothing $-16,248) |
| $13 | 16d | 7 Aug 2026 | $0.73 | 135/200 | $18,478 | $18,600 | 66% | 76% | +$4,942 | -$12,819 | 116.5% | $-13,005 (vs do-nothing $-12,954) |
| $12.50 | 2d | 24 Jul 2026 | $0.33 | 38/200 | $18,810 | $19,114 | 65% | 78% | +$8,938 | -$7,028 | 63.9% | $-7,117 (vs do-nothing $-7,066) |
| $13 | 23d | 14 Aug 2026 | $0.90 | 157/200 | $18,430 | $18,511 | 65% | 75% | +$4,213 | -$12,239 | 111.3% | $-12,447 (vs do-nothing $-12,396) |
| $12.50 | 9d | 31 Jul 2026 | $0.63 | 88/200 | $18,480 | $18,690 | 60% | 72% | +$4,614 | -$13,636 | 124.0% | $-13,775 (vs do-nothing $-13,724) |
| $12.50 | 16d | 7 Aug 2026 | $0.93 | 106/200 | $18,484 | $18,660 | 59% | 72% | +$4,232 | -$13,245 | 120.4% | $-13,402 (vs do-nothing $-13,351) |
| $12.50 | 23d | 14 Aug 2026 | $1.10 | 129/200 | $18,509 | $18,642 | 59% | 72% | +$3,646 | -$13,926 | 126.6% | $-14,106 (vs do-nothing $-14,055) |
| $12 | 23d | 14 Aug 2026 | $1.35 | 105/200 | $18,489 | $18,667 | 53% | 69% | +$3,274 | -$13,960 | 126.9% | $-14,116 (vs do-nothing $-14,065) |
Show 3 more candidates (lower strikes: more income, lower survival)
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|
| $12 | 16d | 7 Aug 2026 | $1.16 | 85/200 | $18,487 | $18,703 | 51% | 69% | +$3,430 | -$12,916 | 117.4% | $-13,052 (vs do-nothing $-13,001) |
| $12 | 9d | 31 Jul 2026 | $0.87 | 64/200 | $18,560 | $18,815 | 49% | 68% | +$3,448 | -$11,581 | 105.3% | $-11,696 (vs do-nothing $-11,645) |
| $12 | 2d | 24 Jul 2026 | $0.57 | 22/200 | $18,810 | $19,144 | 44% | 68% | +$5,147 | -$4,641 | 42.2% | $-4,714 (vs do-nothing $-4,663) |
Income/mo = FIGHT leg gross, DTE-prorated. Net/mo = FIGHT + conservative CC gross minus hedge cost. POP (mid) = probability stock closes at or below (strike + mid premium) at expiry, per-strike chain IV when available. Survival = CC expires fully worthless. EV/mo = premium minus expected buyback, monthly, with realized vol = IV x 85% (variance risk premium 15%). Cap give-up @ SS = recovery mortgaged on a V-bounce to SS, net of premium. Total P&L @ SS = absolute position P&L if the stock closes at SS; "vs do-nothing" = opportunity cost against holding all 200 contracts at the conservative CC.