MARA-LC40 @ $12.13 UNDERWATER $28.42 (70.1% below BE SS)
⚠ EARNINGS · DO NOT SELL INCOME INTO IT
MARA reports 2026-07-29 (Wed), in 7 days. The recommended CC (23d) expires on/after it, so selling now holds a short call through the earnings gap, a report can blow past your strike overnight and cap you at a loss. Wait for the print, or sell only an expiry that closes BEFORE 2026-07-29.
200 contracts (20,000 sh) | BE SS: $40.55 | CC-SS: $14.65 | IV: HIGH | Accounts: Main:1299
LC: $40 exp 2027-01-15 (entry $0.557/sh)
Economics
| Max Loss | $11,000 | (ND $0.55 + SW $0) x 20000 |
| Normal income ref | $38,625/mo | 95% ann ROI on ML |
| Hedge (static, never rolled) | $0/mo | HP expiry = SP LEAPS; decay ≈ $0/mo (info only, already in marks) |
| Unrealized P&L | $-5,000 | fortress legs from IBKR |
INCOME GOALPOSTS & VELOCITY
50% INCOME FLOOR
$19,312/mo
HEDGE COVER
$0/mo (static)
NORMAL INCOME
$38,625/mo (ATM CC, chain)
IC VELOCITY
0.3 mo to earn back $11,000
ML VELOCITY
0.3 mo to earn back $11,000
NOT a deep drawdown: a CC at CC-SS $14.65 (probe: $14.5C 16d) still earns $12,375/mo (32% of normal). Sell the normal CC at/above CC-SS; a FIGHT CC below it is not needed here.
🏦 Campaign ledger: seeded, nothing tracked yet. Open short calls and banked credits appear here from the next cycle on; the banked-floor (info) shows how far premium would ratchet the floor, but the recommended CC-SS stays the pure recovery strike.
TECHNICALS (cc_timing weekly gate + daily trigger)
WEEKLYNEUTRAL · %B 55 (live) · RSI 50 · MACD bullish, hist falling
DAILYMIXED (provisional) · RSI 46 · %B 36 · hist rising (nightly)
LEVELSUpper BB (CC ceiling) $15.77 (+30%) · daily UBB $14.66 · 1-wk expected move ±$2 (chain IV)
SETUPNo tilt: engine default. (advisory; floors and picks are chain-only)
⚠ Next earnings 2026-07-29: candidates whose expiry crosses it are flagged in the spectrum; EV is unreliable across earnings.
NOT a deep drawdown. A CC at/above CC-SS $14.65 keeps this fortress whole if assigned, so there is no need to FIGHT below it. Three income options to consider, richer → safer, all at/above CC-SS. Click a card for its if-challenged roll menu.
🎯 Recommended · sell 200 × $15 14 Aug 2026 (23d) · richest strike still ≥80% survivalroll menu if challenged ▾
Survival (stays ≤ $15)
84%
Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 200 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 11 of 23); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic
Buyback gross: $1.88/sh now → $1.33 mid-life → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.37/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.96/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (200 ct) | POP / surv
of new CC |
|---|
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP.
Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened.
🛡 Safer · sell 200 × $15.50 7 Aug 2026 (16d) · higher survival, lighter premiumroll menu if challenged ▾
Survival (stays ≤ $15.50)
90%
Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 200 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 8 of 16); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic
Buyback gross: $1.66/sh now → $1.18 mid-life (likely $0.91–$1.53) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.19/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.99/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours
📊 Across 493 simulated challenges: the $16 strike is typically first touched on day 11 of 16, at $16 (overshoots $0.47). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (200 ct) | POP / surv
of new CC |
|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$16 | 14 Aug 2026 | 15d left | +$0.34/sh | +$6,730 cycle +$10,530 [+$6,199…+$10,894] · 100% credit | 70% surv 55% |
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$16 | 14 Aug 2026 | 15d left | +$0.15/sh | +$2,923 cycle +$6,723 [+$1,970…+$6,431] · 99% credit | 71% surv 59% |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$16 | 14 Aug 2026 | 15d left | +$0.15/sh | +$2,923 cycle +$6,723 [+$1,970…+$6,431] · 99% credit | 71% surv 59% |
| SS $41 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder |
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$16 | 14 Aug 2026 | 15d left | -$0.06/sh | -$1,235 cycle +$2,565 [-$2,613…+$1,849] · 40% credit | 74% surv 64% |
| budget: banked $3,800 debit $1,235 (33% used ≈ 0.8 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$2,565 cash · rolled 200 ct earn ≈ $44,566/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell |
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP.
Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened.
🛡 Safer · sell 200 × $28 31 Jul 2026 (9d) · higher survival, lighter premiumroll menu if challenged ▾
Survival (stays ≤ $28)
100%
Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 200 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 9); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic
Buyback gross: $3.32/sh now → $2.35 mid-life → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.01/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$2.34/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (200 ct) | POP / surv
of new CC |
|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$28 | 7 Aug 2026 | 12d left | +$1.22/sh | +$24,379 cycle +$24,579 | 71% surv 56% |
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$30 | 7 Aug 2026 | 12d left | +$0.23/sh | +$4,577 cycle +$4,777 | 74% surv 64% |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$30 | 14 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$0.05/sh | +$977 cycle +$1,177 | 73% surv 66% |
| SS $41 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder |
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP.
Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened.
⚔ FIGHT CC options · full candidate scan (15 clear the floor), click to expand
Every eligible strike x expiry in the 2-45 DTE band (4 expiries scanned, 15 clear the income floor), each sized to the minimum contracts that clear it. Sorted by survival (safest first): the primary 🎯 is the safest; rows below trade safety for income.
Fortress delta: 0.095 (IBKR) | Recovery@SS: +$4,780 (un-capped fortress gain if stock rallies to SS) | Do-nothing @ SS: $-20
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|
| $13.50 | 2d | 24 Jul 2026 | $0.08 | 161/200 | $19,320 | $19,393 | 93% | 94% | +$15,959 | -$17,159 | 156.0% | $-17,340 (vs do-nothing $-17,320) |
| $13 | 2d | 24 Jul 2026 | $0.18 | 72/200 | $19,440 | $19,680 | 84% | 88% | +$13,789 | -$10,554 | 95.9% | $-10,646 (vs do-nothing $-10,626) |
| $13.50 | 9d | 31 Jul 2026 | $0.32 | 182/200 | $19,413 | $19,447 | 78% | 82% | +$7,323 | -$15,029 | 136.6% | $-15,231 (vs do-nothing $-15,211) |
| $13.50 | 16d | 7 Aug 2026 | $0.55 | 188/200 | $19,388 | $19,410 | 73% | 80% | +$6,182 | -$11,201 | 101.8% | $-11,409 (vs do-nothing $-11,389) |
| $13 | 9d | 31 Jul 2026 | $0.43 | 135/200 | $19,350 | $19,472 | 70% | 77% | +$5,158 | -$16,413 | 149.2% | $-16,568 (vs do-nothing $-16,548) |
| $12.50 | 2d | 24 Jul 2026 | $0.33 | 40/200 | $19,800 | $20,100 | 67% | 79% | +$10,454 | -$7,263 | 66.0% | $-7,323 (vs do-nothing $-7,303) |
| $13 | 16d | 7 Aug 2026 | $0.73 | 142/200 | $19,436 | $19,545 | 67% | 76% | +$5,758 | -$13,004 | 118.2% | $-13,166 (vs do-nothing $-13,146) |
| $13 | 23d | 14 Aug 2026 | $0.90 | 165/200 | $19,370 | $19,435 | 66% | 75% | +$4,874 | -$12,305 | 111.9% | $-12,490 (vs do-nothing $-12,470) |
| $12.50 | 9d | 31 Jul 2026 | $0.63 | 92/200 | $19,320 | $19,522 | 61% | 72% | +$4,597 | -$13,945 | 126.8% | $-14,057 (vs do-nothing $-14,037) |
| $12.50 | 16d | 7 Aug 2026 | $0.93 | 111/200 | $19,356 | $19,522 | 60% | 73% | +$4,962 | -$13,495 | 122.7% | $-13,626 (vs do-nothing $-13,606) |
| $12.50 | 23d | 14 Aug 2026 | $1.10 | 135/200 | $19,370 | $19,491 | 60% | 73% | +$4,246 | -$14,118 | 128.3% | $-14,273 (vs do-nothing $-14,253) |
| $12 | 23d | 14 Aug 2026 | $1.35 | 110/200 | $19,370 | $19,538 | 53% | 70% | +$3,836 | -$14,254 | 129.6% | $-14,384 (vs do-nothing $-14,364) |
| $12 | 16d | 7 Aug 2026 | $1.16 | 89/200 | $19,357 | $19,566 | 52% | 69% | +$4,120 | -$13,223 | 120.2% | $-13,332 (vs do-nothing $-13,312) |
Show 2 more candidates (lower strikes: more income, lower survival)
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|
| $12 | 9d | 31 Jul 2026 | $0.87 | 67/200 | $19,430 | $19,679 | 50% | 68% | +$3,744 | -$11,898 | 108.2% | $-11,985 (vs do-nothing $-11,965) |
| $12 | 2d | 24 Jul 2026 | $0.57 | 23/200 | $19,665 | $19,997 | 46% | 71% | +$6,931 | -$4,774 | 43.4% | $-4,817 (vs do-nothing $-4,797) |
Income/mo = FIGHT leg gross, DTE-prorated. Net/mo = FIGHT + conservative CC gross minus hedge cost. POP (mid) = probability stock closes at or below (strike + mid premium) at expiry, per-strike chain IV when available. Survival = CC expires fully worthless. EV/mo = premium minus expected buyback, monthly, with realized vol = IV x 85% (variance risk premium 15%). Cap give-up @ SS = recovery mortgaged on a V-bounce to SS, net of premium. Total P&L @ SS = absolute position P&L if the stock closes at SS; "vs do-nothing" = opportunity cost against holding all 200 contracts at the conservative CC.