MARA-LC40 @ $12.07 UNDERWATER $28.48 (70.2% below BE SS)
⚠ EARNINGS · DO NOT SELL INCOME INTO IT
MARA reports 2026-07-29 (Wed), in 7 days. The recommended CC (23d) expires on/after it, so selling now holds a short call through the earnings gap, a report can blow past your strike overnight and cap you at a loss. Wait for the print, or sell only an expiry that closes BEFORE 2026-07-29.
200 contracts (20,000 sh) | BE SS: $40.55 | CC-SS: $14.51 | IV: HIGH | Accounts: Main:1299
LC: $40 exp 2027-01-15 (entry $0.557/sh)
Economics
| Max Loss | $11,000 | (ND $0.55 + SW $0) x 20000 |
| Normal income ref | $40,875/mo | 95% ann ROI on ML |
| Hedge (static, never rolled) | $0/mo | HP expiry = SP LEAPS; decay ≈ $0/mo (info only, already in marks) |
| Unrealized P&L | $-5,000 | fortress legs from IBKR |
INCOME GOALPOSTS & VELOCITY
50% INCOME FLOOR
$20,437/mo
HEDGE COVER
$0/mo (static)
NORMAL INCOME
$40,875/mo (ATM CC, chain)
IC VELOCITY
0.3 mo to earn back $11,000
ML VELOCITY
0.3 mo to earn back $11,000
NOT a deep drawdown: a CC at CC-SS $14.51 (probe: $14.5C 16d) still earns $12,375/mo (30% of normal). Sell the normal CC at/above CC-SS; a FIGHT CC below it is not needed here.
🏦 Campaign ledger: seeded, nothing tracked yet. Open short calls and banked credits appear here from the next cycle on; the banked-floor (info) shows how far premium would ratchet the floor, but the recommended CC-SS stays the pure recovery strike.
TECHNICALS (cc_timing weekly gate + daily trigger)
WEEKLYNEUTRAL · %B 54 (live) · RSI 50 · MACD bullish, hist falling
DAILYMIXED (provisional) · RSI 45 · %B 34 · hist rising (nightly)
LEVELSUpper BB (CC ceiling) $15.77 (+31%) · daily UBB $14.66 · 1-wk expected move ±$2 (chain IV)
SETUPNo tilt: engine default. (advisory; floors and picks are chain-only)
⚠ Next earnings 2026-07-29: candidates whose expiry crosses it are flagged in the spectrum; EV is unreliable across earnings.
NOT a deep drawdown. A CC at/above CC-SS $14.51 keeps this fortress whole if assigned, so there is no need to FIGHT below it. Three income options to consider, richer → safer, all at/above CC-SS. Click a card for its if-challenged roll menu.
🎯 Recommended · sell 200 × $15 14 Aug 2026 (23d) · richest strike still ≥80% survivalroll menu if challenged ▾
Survival (stays ≤ $15)
84%
Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 200 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 11 of 23); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic
Buyback gross: $1.94/sh now → $1.38 mid-life → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.37/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$1.01/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (200 ct) | POP / surv
of new CC |
|---|
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP.
Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened.
🛡 Safer · sell 200 × $15.50 7 Aug 2026 (16d) · higher survival, lighter premiumroll menu if challenged ▾
Survival (stays ≤ $15.50)
90%
Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 200 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 8 of 16); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic
Buyback gross: $1.72/sh now → $1.22 mid-life (likely $0.97–$1.59) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.19/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$1.03/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours
📊 Across 476 simulated challenges: the $16 strike is typically first touched on day 11 of 16, at $16 (overshoots $0.48). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (200 ct) | POP / surv
of new CC |
|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$16 | 14 Aug 2026 | 15d left | +$0.34/sh | +$6,853 cycle +$10,653 [+$6,306…+$10,892] · 100% credit | 70% surv 55% |
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$16 | 14 Aug 2026 | 15d left | +$0.12/sh | +$2,412 cycle +$6,212 [+$1,375…+$5,898] · 94% credit | 72% surv 59% |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$16 | 14 Aug 2026 | 15d left | +$0.12/sh | +$2,412 cycle +$6,212 [+$1,375…+$5,898] · 94% credit | 72% surv 59% |
| SS $41 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder |
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$16 | 14 Aug 2026 | 15d left | -$0.09/sh | -$1,773 cycle +$2,027 [-$3,329…+$990] · 34% credit | 74% surv 64% |
| budget: banked $3,800 debit $1,773 (47% used ≈ 1.1 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$2,027 cash · rolled 200 ct earn ≈ $45,138/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell |
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP.
Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened.
🛡 Safer · sell 200 × $28 31 Jul 2026 (9d) · higher survival, lighter premiumroll menu if challenged ▾
Survival (stays ≤ $28)
100%
Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 200 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 9); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic
Buyback gross: $3.52/sh now → $2.49 mid-life → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.01/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$2.48/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (200 ct) | POP / surv
of new CC |
|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$28 | 7 Aug 2026 | 12d left | +$1.19/sh | +$23,868 cycle +$24,068 | 71% surv 56% |
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$30 | 7 Aug 2026 | 12d left | +$0.09/sh | +$1,777 cycle +$1,977 | 74% surv 65% |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$30 | 7 Aug 2026 | 12d left | +$0.09/sh | +$1,777 cycle +$1,977 | 74% surv 65% |
| SS $41 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder |
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP.
Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened.
⚔ FIGHT CC options · full candidate scan (15 clear the floor), click to expand
Every eligible strike x expiry in the 2-45 DTE band (4 expiries scanned, 15 clear the income floor), each sized to the minimum contracts that clear it. Sorted by survival (safest first): the primary 🎯 is the safest; rows below trade safety for income.
Fortress delta: 0.900 (fallback) | Recovery@SS: +$43,909 (un-capped fortress gain if stock rallies to SS) | Do-nothing @ SS: $39,109
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|
| $13.50 | 2d | 24 Jul 2026 | $0.08 | 171/200 | $20,520 | $20,574 | 93% | 94% | +$16,722 | -$15,893 | 144.5% | $23,045 (vs do-nothing $-16,064) |
| $13 | 2d | 24 Jul 2026 | $0.18 | 76/200 | $20,520 | $20,752 | 84% | 88% | +$14,591 | -$10,103 | 91.8% | $28,930 (vs do-nothing $-10,179) |
| $13.50 | 9d | 31 Jul 2026 | $0.32 | 192/200 | $20,480 | $20,495 | 80% | 84% | +$10,099 | -$13,236 | 120.3% | $25,681 (vs do-nothing $-13,428) |
| $13.50 | 16d | 7 Aug 2026 | $0.55 | 199/200 | $20,522 | $20,524 | 74% | 80% | +$7,149 | -$9,142 | 83.1% | $29,768 (vs do-nothing $-9,341) |
| $13 | 9d | 31 Jul 2026 | $0.43 | 143/200 | $20,497 | $20,604 | 72% | 79% | +$7,753 | -$15,435 | 140.3% | $23,531 (vs do-nothing $-15,578) |
| $12.50 | 2d | 24 Jul 2026 | $0.33 | 42/200 | $20,790 | $21,086 | 69% | 80% | +$11,211 | -$7,053 | 64.1% | $32,014 (vs do-nothing $-7,095) |
| $13 | 16d | 7 Aug 2026 | $0.73 | 150/200 | $20,531 | $20,625 | 68% | 77% | +$6,666 | -$11,691 | 106.3% | $27,268 (vs do-nothing $-11,841) |
| $13 | 23d | 14 Aug 2026 | $0.90 | 175/200 | $20,543 | $20,590 | 66% | 76% | +$5,587 | -$10,664 | 96.9% | $28,270 (vs do-nothing $-10,839) |
| $12.50 | 9d | 31 Jul 2026 | $0.63 | 98/200 | $20,580 | $20,771 | 62% | 74% | +$6,680 | -$13,518 | 122.9% | $25,493 (vs do-nothing $-13,616) |
| $12.50 | 16d | 7 Aug 2026 | $0.93 | 118/200 | $20,576 | $20,730 | 61% | 73% | +$5,847 | -$12,737 | 115.8% | $26,254 (vs do-nothing $-12,855) |
| $12.50 | 23d | 14 Aug 2026 | $1.10 | 143/200 | $20,517 | $20,624 | 60% | 73% | +$4,958 | -$13,004 | 118.2% | $25,962 (vs do-nothing $-13,147) |
| $12 | 23d | 14 Aug 2026 | $1.35 | 117/200 | $20,602 | $20,758 | 54% | 71% | +$4,587 | -$13,565 | 123.3% | $25,427 (vs do-nothing $-13,682) |
| $12 | 16d | 7 Aug 2026 | $1.16 | 94/200 | $20,445 | $20,644 | 53% | 70% | +$4,876 | -$12,684 | 115.3% | $26,331 (vs do-nothing $-12,778) |
Show 2 more candidates (lower strikes: more income, lower survival)
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|
| $12 | 9d | 31 Jul 2026 | $0.87 | 71/200 | $20,590 | $20,832 | 51% | 70% | +$5,277 | -$11,640 | 105.8% | $27,398 (vs do-nothing $-11,711) |
| $12 | 2d | 24 Jul 2026 | $0.57 | 24/200 | $20,520 | $20,850 | 48% | 73% | +$8,430 | -$4,655 | 42.3% | $34,430 (vs do-nothing $-4,679) |
Income/mo = FIGHT leg gross, DTE-prorated. Net/mo = FIGHT + conservative CC gross minus hedge cost. POP (mid) = probability stock closes at or below (strike + mid premium) at expiry, per-strike chain IV when available. Survival = CC expires fully worthless. EV/mo = premium minus expected buyback, monthly, with realized vol = IV x 85% (variance risk premium 15%). Cap give-up @ SS = recovery mortgaged on a V-bounce to SS, net of premium. Total P&L @ SS = absolute position P&L if the stock closes at SS; "vs do-nothing" = opportunity cost against holding all 200 contracts at the conservative CC.