FORTRESS FIGHT: MARA-LC40 @ $12.56

BE SS: $40.55 | CC-SS: $14.99 | 200 contracts (20,000 sh) | ⌂ PORTFOLIO

MARA-LC40 @ $12.56 UNDERWATER $27.98 (69.0% below BE SS)

⚠ EARNINGS · DO NOT SELL INCOME INTO IT

MARA reports 2026-07-29 (Wed), in 7 days. The recommended CC (16d) expires on/after it, so selling now holds a short call through the earnings gap, a report can blow past your strike overnight and cap you at a loss. Wait for the print, or sell only an expiry that closes BEFORE 2026-07-29.

200 contracts (20,000 sh) | BE SS: $40.55 | CC-SS: $14.99 | IV: HIGH | Accounts: Main:1299

LC: $40 exp 2027-01-15 (entry $0.557/sh)

Economics

Max Loss	$11,000	(ND $0.55 + SW $0) x 20000
Normal income ref	$37,688/mo	95% ann ROI on ML
Hedge (static, never rolled)	$0/mo	HP expiry = SP LEAPS; decay ≈ $0/mo (info only, already in marks)
Unrealized P&L	$-4,900	fortress legs from IBKR

INCOME GOALPOSTS & VELOCITY

50% INCOME FLOOR
$18,844/mo

HEDGE COVER
$0/mo (static)

NORMAL INCOME
$37,688/mo (ATM CC, chain)

IC VELOCITY
0.3 mo to earn back $11,000

ML VELOCITY
0.3 mo to earn back $11,000

NOT a deep drawdown: a CC at CC-SS $14.99 (probe: $15C 16d) still earns $11,250/mo (30% of normal). Sell the normal CC at/above CC-SS; a FIGHT CC below it is not needed here.

🏦 Campaign ledger: seeded, nothing tracked yet. Open short calls and banked credits appear here from the next cycle on; the banked-floor (info) shows how far premium would ratchet the floor, but the recommended CC-SS stays the pure recovery strike.

TECHNICALS (cc_timing weekly gate + daily trigger)

WEEKLYNEUTRAL · %B 60 (live) · RSI 52 · MACD bullish, hist falling

DAILYMIXED (provisional) · RSI 48 · %B 48 · hist rising (nightly)

LEVELSUpper BB (CC ceiling) $15.80 (+26%) · daily UBB $14.50 · 1-wk expected move ±$2 (chain IV)

SETUPNo tilt: engine default. (advisory; floors and picks are chain-only)

⚠ Next earnings 2026-07-29: candidates whose expiry crosses it are flagged in the spectrum; EV is unreliable across earnings.

NOT a deep drawdown. A CC at/above CC-SS $14.99 keeps this fortress whole if assigned, so there is no need to FIGHT below it. Three income options to consider, richer → safer, all at/above CC-SS. Click a card for its if-challenged roll menu.

🎯 Recommended · sell 200 × $15 7 Aug 2026 (16d) · richest strike still ≥80% survivalroll menu if challenged ▾

Survival (stays ≤ $15)

83%

Touch odds

36%

Per cycle

$6,000

Income / mo

$11,250

Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 200 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 8 of 16); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic

Buyback gross: $1.44/sh now → $1.02 mid-life (likely $0.95–$1.44) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.30/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.72/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours

📊 Across 861 simulated challenges: the $15 strike is typically first touched on day 9 of 16, at $15 (overshoots $0.43). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (200 ct)	POP / surv of new CC
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$15	14 Aug 2026	15d left	+$0.31/sh	+$6,122 cycle +$12,122 [+$5,107…+$8,199] · 100% credit	69% surv 54%
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)	~$15	14 Aug 2026	15d left	+$0.11/sh	+$2,231 cycle +$8,231 [+$850…+$3,663] · 92% credit	71% surv 59%
Max even-money escape in the band	~$15	14 Aug 2026	15d left	+$0.11/sh	+$2,231 cycle +$8,231 [+$850…+$3,663] · 92% credit	71% surv 59%
SS $41 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)	~$16	14 Aug 2026	15d left	-$0.25/sh	-$4,987 cycle +$1,013 [-$7,518…-$4,205] · 5% credit	77% surv 70%
budget: banked $6,000 debit $4,987 (83% used ≈ 1.9 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$1,013 cash · rolled 200 ct earn ≈ $30,781/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell

POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP.

Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened.

🛡 Safer · sell 200 × $16 7 Aug 2026 (16d) · higher survival, lighter premiumroll menu if challenged ▾

Survival (stays ≤ $16)

90%

Touch odds

21%

Per cycle

$3,400

Income / mo

$6,375

Buyback gross: $1.59/sh now → $1.13 mid-life (likely $0.94–$1.49) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.17/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.96/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours

📊 Across 486 simulated challenges: the $16 strike is typically first touched on day 10 of 16, at $16 (overshoots $0.47). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (200 ct)	POP / surv of new CC
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$16	14 Aug 2026	15d left	+$0.34/sh	+$6,759 cycle +$10,159 [+$6,277…+$9,904] · 100% credit	69% surv 55%
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)	~$16	14 Aug 2026	15d left	+$0.14/sh	+$2,848 cycle +$6,248 [+$1,977…+$5,335] · 98% credit	71% surv 59%
Max even-money escape in the band	~$16	14 Aug 2026	15d left	+$0.14/sh	+$2,848 cycle +$6,248 [+$1,977…+$5,335] · 98% credit	71% surv 59%
SS $41 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)	~$17	14 Aug 2026	15d left	-$0.04/sh	-$878 cycle +$2,522 [-$2,166…+$1,198] · 38% credit	74% surv 64%
budget: banked $3,400 debit $878 (26% used ≈ 0.6 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$2,522 cash · rolled 200 ct earn ≈ $43,318/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell

🛡 Safer · sell 200 × $20 7 Aug 2026 (16d) · higher survival, lighter premiumroll menu if challenged ▾

Survival (stays ≤ $20)

99%

Touch odds

Per cycle

$400

Income / mo

$750

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (200 ct)	POP / surv of new CC
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$20	14 Aug 2026	15d left	+$0.48/sh	+$9,585 cycle +$9,985	70% surv 55%
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)	~$21	14 Aug 2026	15d left	+$0.09/sh	+$1,819 cycle +$2,219	73% surv 62%
Max even-money escape in the band	~$21	14 Aug 2026	15d left	+$0.09/sh	+$1,819 cycle +$2,219	73% surv 62%
SS $41 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder

⚔ FIGHT CC options · full candidate scan (14 clear the floor), click to expand

Every eligible strike x expiry in the 2-45 DTE band (4 expiries scanned, 14 clear the income floor), each sized to the minimum contracts that clear it. Sorted by survival (safest first): the primary 🎯 is the safest; rows below trade safety for income.

Fortress delta: 0.095 (IBKR) | Recovery@SS: +$4,600 (un-capped fortress gain if stock rallies to SS) | Do-nothing @ SS: $100

Strike	DTE	Expiry	Bid	Sell	Income/mo	Net/mo	Survival	POP (mid)	EV/mo	Cap Give-up @ CC-SS	%IC	Total P&L @ SS
$13.50	2d	24 Jul 2026	$0.13	97/200	$18,915	$19,301	82%	85%	+$8,152	-$13,155	119.6%	$-13,249 (vs do-nothing $-13,349)
$14	9d	31 Jul 2026	$0.29	195/200	$18,850	$18,869	79%	82%	+$6,465	-$13,576	123.4%	$-13,866 (vs do-nothing $-13,966)
$14	16d	7 Aug 2026	$0.51	198/200	$18,934	$18,941	74%	79%	+$5,011	-$9,429	85.7%	$-9,725 (vs do-nothing $-9,825)
$13.50	9d	31 Jul 2026	$0.40	142/200	$18,933	$19,151	71%	78%	+$4,777	-$15,424	140.2%	$-15,608 (vs do-nothing $-15,708)
$13	2d	24 Jul 2026	$0.25	51/200	$19,125	$19,684	68%	76%	+$5,551	-$8,855	80.5%	$-8,856 (vs do-nothing $-8,957)
$13.50	16d	7 Aug 2026	$0.66	153/200	$18,934	$19,110	67%	76%	+$4,276	-$12,641	114.9%	$-12,847 (vs do-nothing $-12,947)
$13.50	23d	14 Aug 2026	$0.88	165/200	$18,939	$19,070	66%	75%	+$4,101	-$10,003	90.9%	$-10,232 (vs do-nothing $-10,333)
$13	9d	31 Jul 2026	$0.57	100/200	$19,000	$19,375	62%	72%	+$3,766	-$14,162	128.7%	$-14,262 (vs do-nothing $-14,362)
$13	16d	7 Aug 2026	$0.85	119/200	$18,966	$19,269	61%	72%	+$3,659	-$13,521	122.9%	$-13,659 (vs do-nothing $-13,759)
$13	23d	14 Aug 2026	$1.06	137/200	$18,942	$19,178	60%	72%	+$3,373	-$12,689	115.4%	$-12,863 (vs do-nothing $-12,963)
$12.50	23d	14 Aug 2026	$1.28	113/200	$18,866	$19,192	54%	69%	+$2,813	-$13,630	123.9%	$-13,756 (vs do-nothing $-13,856)
$12.50	16d	7 Aug 2026	$1.07	94/200	$18,859	$19,256	53%	69%	+$2,909	-$13,313	121.0%	$-13,400 (vs do-nothing $-13,501)
$12.50	9d	31 Jul 2026	$0.79	72/200	$18,960	$19,440	52%	68%	+$2,772	-$12,213	111.0%	$-12,257 (vs do-nothing $-12,357)

Show 1 more candidates (lower strikes: more income, lower survival)

Strike	DTE	Expiry	Bid	Sell	Income/mo	Net/mo	Survival	POP (mid)	EV/mo	Cap Give-up @ CC-SS	%IC	Total P&L @ SS
$12.50	2d	24 Jul 2026	$0.45	28/200	$18,900	$19,545	49%	67%	+$3,047	-$5,701	51.8%	$-5,657 (vs do-nothing $-5,757)

Income/mo = FIGHT leg gross, DTE-prorated. Net/mo = FIGHT + conservative CC gross minus hedge cost. POP (mid) = probability stock closes at or below (strike + mid premium) at expiry, per-strike chain IV when available. Survival = CC expires fully worthless. EV/mo = premium minus expected buyback, monthly, with realized vol = IV x 85% (variance risk premium 15%). Cap give-up @ SS = recovery mortgaged on a V-bounce to SS, net of premium. Total P&L @ SS = absolute position P&L if the stock closes at SS; "vs do-nothing" = opportunity cost against holding all 200 contracts at the conservative CC.

fortress_fight.py v6.2 | 2026-07-22 23:04