MARA-LC40 @ $12.52 UNDERWATER $28.03 (69.1% below BE SS)
⚠ EARNINGS · DO NOT SELL INCOME INTO IT
MARA reports 2026-07-29 (Wed), in 7 days. The recommended CC (15d) expires on/after it, so selling now holds a short call through the earnings gap, a report can blow past your strike overnight and cap you at a loss. Wait for the print, or sell only an expiry that closes BEFORE 2026-07-29.
200 contracts (20,000 sh) | BE SS: $40.55 | CC-SS: $14.89 | IV: HIGH | Accounts: Main:1299
LC: $40 exp 2027-01-15 (entry $0.557/sh)
Economics
| Max Loss | $11,000 | (ND $0.55 + SW $0) x 20000 |
| Normal income ref | $40,804/mo | 95% ann ROI on ML |
| Hedge (static, never rolled) | $0/mo | HP expiry = SP LEAPS; decay ≈ $0/mo (info only, already in marks) |
| Unrealized P&L | $-4,800 | fortress legs from IBKR |
INCOME GOALPOSTS & VELOCITY
50% INCOME FLOOR
$20,402/mo
HEDGE COVER
$0/mo (static)
NORMAL INCOME
$40,804/mo (ATM CC, chain)
IC VELOCITY
0.3 mo to earn back $11,000
ML VELOCITY
0.3 mo to earn back $11,000
NOT a deep drawdown: a CC at CC-SS $14.89 (probe: $15C 15d) still earns $12,400/mo (30% of normal). Sell the normal CC at/above CC-SS; a FIGHT CC below it is not needed here.
🏦 Campaign ledger: seeded, nothing tracked yet. Open short calls and banked credits appear here from the next cycle on; the banked-floor (info) shows how far premium would ratchet the floor, but the recommended CC-SS stays the pure recovery strike.
TECHNICALS (cc_timing weekly gate + daily trigger)
WEEKLYNEUTRAL · %B 59 (live) · RSI 52 · MACD bullish, hist falling
DAILYMIXED (provisional) · RSI 48 · %B 47 · hist rising (nightly)
LEVELSUpper BB (CC ceiling) $15.80 (+26%) · daily UBB $14.50 · 1-wk expected move ±$2 (chain IV)
SETUPNo tilt: engine default. (advisory; floors and picks are chain-only)
⚠ Next earnings 2026-07-29: candidates whose expiry crosses it are flagged in the spectrum; EV is unreliable across earnings.
NOT a deep drawdown. A CC at/above CC-SS $14.89 keeps this fortress whole if assigned, so there is no need to FIGHT below it. Three income options to consider, richer → safer, all at/above CC-SS. Click a card for its if-challenged roll menu.
🎯 Recommended · sell 200 × $15 7 Aug 2026 (15d) · richest strike still ≥80% survivalroll menu if challenged ▾
Survival (stays ≤ $15)
84%
Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 200 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 7 of 15); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic
Buyback gross: $1.49/sh now → $1.05 mid-life (likely $1.02–$1.52) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.31/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.74/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours
📊 Across 801 simulated challenges: the $15 strike is typically first touched on day 8 of 15, at $15 (overshoots $0.47). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (200 ct) | POP / surv
of new CC |
|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$15 | 14 Aug 2026 | 14d left | +$0.24/sh | +$4,856 cycle +$11,056 [+$3,283…+$6,715] · 100% credit | 69% surv 54% |
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$15 | 14 Aug 2026 | 14d left | +$0.04/sh | +$758 cycle +$6,958 [-$1,283…+$1,936] · 48% credit | 72% surv 60% |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$15 | 14 Aug 2026 | 14d left | +$0.04/sh | +$758 cycle +$6,958 [-$1,283…+$1,936] · 48% credit | 72% surv 60% |
| SS $41 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder |
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$16 | 14 Aug 2026 | 14d left | -$0.14/sh | -$2,722 cycle +$3,478 [-$5,232…-$1,893] · 13% credit | 75% surv 66% |
| budget: banked $6,200 debit $2,722 (44% used ≈ 1.0 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$3,478 cash · rolled 200 ct earn ≈ $39,262/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell |
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP.
Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened.
🛡 Safer · sell 200 × $16 7 Aug 2026 (15d) · higher survival, lighter premiumroll menu if challenged ▾
Survival (stays ≤ $16)
90%
Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 200 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 7 of 15); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic
Buyback gross: $1.64/sh now → $1.16 mid-life (likely $0.90–$1.53) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.19/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.97/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours
📊 Across 477 simulated challenges: the $16 strike is typically first touched on day 10 of 15, at $16 (overshoots $0.47). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (200 ct) | POP / surv
of new CC |
|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$16 | 14 Aug 2026 | 14d left | +$0.27/sh | +$5,361 cycle +$9,161 [+$4,540…+$8,933] · 100% credit | 69% surv 54% |
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$16 | 14 Aug 2026 | 14d left | +$0.06/sh | +$1,249 cycle +$5,049 [-$97…+$4,612] · 73% credit | 71% surv 60% |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$16 | 14 Aug 2026 | 14d left | +$0.06/sh | +$1,249 cycle +$5,049 [-$97…+$4,612] · 73% credit | 71% surv 60% |
| SS $41 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder |
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$17 | 14 Aug 2026 | 14d left | -$0.11/sh | -$2,261 cycle +$1,539 [-$4,036…+$701] · 29% credit | 74% surv 65% |
| budget: banked $3,800 debit $2,261 (60% used ≈ 1.3 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$1,539 cash · rolled 200 ct earn ≈ $44,992/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell |
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP.
Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened.
🛡 Safer · sell 200 × $18.50 31 Jul 2026 (8d) · higher survival, lighter premiumroll menu if challenged ▾
Survival (stays ≤ $18.50)
100%
Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 200 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 8); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic
Buyback gross: $1.47/sh now → $1.04 mid-life → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.01/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$1.03/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (200 ct) | POP / surv
of new CC |
|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$18 | 7 Aug 2026 | 11d left | +$0.58/sh | +$11,530 cycle +$11,730 | 69% surv 54% |
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$19 | 7 Aug 2026 | 11d left | +$0.16/sh | +$3,144 cycle +$3,344 | 73% surv 64% |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$21 | 14 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$0.07/sh | +$1,407 cycle +$1,607 | 78% surv 72% |
| SS $41 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder |
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP.
Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened.
⚔ FIGHT CC options · full candidate scan (9 clear the floor), click to expand
Every eligible strike x expiry in the 4-45 DTE band (3 expiries scanned, 9 clear the income floor), each sized to the minimum contracts that clear it. Sorted by survival (safest first): the primary 🎯 is the safest; rows below trade safety for income.
Fortress delta: 0.097 (IBKR) | Recovery@SS: +$4,603 (un-capped fortress gain if stock rallies to SS) | Do-nothing @ SS: $203
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|
| $13.50 | 8d | 31 Jul 2026 | $0.39 | 140/200 | $20,475 | $20,715 | 72% | 78% | +$5,844 | -$14,034 | 127.6% | $-14,111 (vs do-nothing $-14,314) |
| $13.50 | 15d | 7 Aug 2026 | $0.64 | 160/200 | $20,480 | $20,640 | 68% | 76% | +$4,812 | -$12,039 | 109.4% | $-12,156 (vs do-nothing $-12,359) |
| $13.50 | 22d | 14 Aug 2026 | $0.84 | 179/200 | $20,504 | $20,588 | 67% | 75% | +$4,298 | -$9,888 | 89.9% | $-10,044 (vs do-nothing $-10,246) |
| $13 | 8d | 31 Jul 2026 | $0.55 | 99/200 | $20,419 | $20,823 | 63% | 73% | +$4,405 | -$13,290 | 120.8% | $-13,285 (vs do-nothing $-13,488) |
| $13 | 15d | 7 Aug 2026 | $0.83 | 123/200 | $20,418 | $20,726 | 61% | 73% | +$4,198 | -$13,068 | 118.8% | $-13,111 (vs do-nothing $-13,314) |
| $13 | 22d | 14 Aug 2026 | $1.01 | 149/200 | $20,521 | $20,725 | 61% | 72% | +$3,393 | -$13,148 | 119.5% | $-13,243 (vs do-nothing $-13,446) |
| $12.50 | 22d | 14 Aug 2026 | $1.22 | 123/200 | $20,463 | $20,771 | 55% | 70% | +$2,720 | -$14,421 | 131.1% | $-14,464 (vs do-nothing $-14,667) |
| $12.50 | 15d | 7 Aug 2026 | $1.04 | 99/200 | $20,592 | $20,996 | 54% | 69% | +$3,308 | -$13,389 | 121.7% | $-13,384 (vs do-nothing $-13,587) |
| $12.50 | 8d | 31 Jul 2026 | $0.77 | 71/200 | $20,501 | $21,017 | 52% | 69% | +$3,823 | -$11,519 | 104.7% | $-11,459 (vs do-nothing $-11,661) |
Income/mo = FIGHT leg gross, DTE-prorated. Net/mo = FIGHT + conservative CC gross minus hedge cost. POP (mid) = probability stock closes at or below (strike + mid premium) at expiry, per-strike chain IV when available. Survival = CC expires fully worthless. EV/mo = premium minus expected buyback, monthly, with realized vol = IV x 85% (variance risk premium 15%). Cap give-up @ SS = recovery mortgaged on a V-bounce to SS, net of premium. Total P&L @ SS = absolute position P&L if the stock closes at SS; "vs do-nothing" = opportunity cost against holding all 200 contracts at the conservative CC.