MARA-LC40 @ $12.47 UNDERWATER $28.08 (69.3% below BE SS)
⚠ EARNINGS · DO NOT SELL INCOME INTO IT
MARA reports 2026-07-29 (Wed), in 7 days. The recommended CC (15d) expires on/after it, so selling now holds a short call through the earnings gap, a report can blow past your strike overnight and cap you at a loss. Wait for the print, or sell only an expiry that closes BEFORE 2026-07-29.
200 contracts (20,000 sh) | BE SS: $40.55 | CC-SS: $14.86 | IV: HIGH | Accounts: Main:1299
LC: $40 exp 2027-01-15 (entry $0.557/sh)
Economics
| Max Loss | $11,000 | (ND $0.55 + SW $0) x 20000 |
| Normal income ref | $41,600/mo | 95% ann ROI on ML |
| Hedge (static, never rolled) | $0/mo | HP expiry = SP LEAPS; decay ≈ $0/mo (info only, already in marks) |
| Unrealized P&L | $-4,800 | fortress legs from IBKR |
INCOME GOALPOSTS & VELOCITY
50% INCOME FLOOR
$20,800/mo
HEDGE COVER
$0/mo (static)
NORMAL INCOME
$41,600/mo (ATM CC, chain)
IC VELOCITY
0.3 mo to earn back $11,000
ML VELOCITY
0.3 mo to earn back $11,000
NOT a deep drawdown: a CC at CC-SS $14.86 (probe: $15C 15d) still earns $12,400/mo (30% of normal). Sell the normal CC at/above CC-SS; a FIGHT CC below it is not needed here.
🏦 Campaign ledger: seeded, nothing tracked yet. Open short calls and banked credits appear here from the next cycle on; the banked-floor (info) shows how far premium would ratchet the floor, but the recommended CC-SS stays the pure recovery strike.
TECHNICALS (cc_timing weekly gate + daily trigger)
WEEKLYNEUTRAL · %B 58 (live) · RSI 52 · MACD bullish, hist falling
DAILYMIXED (provisional) · RSI 47 · %B 46 · hist rising (nightly)
LEVELSUpper BB (CC ceiling) $15.80 (+27%) · daily UBB $14.50 · 1-wk expected move ±$2 (chain IV)
SETUPNo tilt: engine default. (advisory; floors and picks are chain-only)
⚠ Next earnings 2026-07-29: candidates whose expiry crosses it are flagged in the spectrum; EV is unreliable across earnings.
NOT a deep drawdown. A CC at/above CC-SS $14.86 keeps this fortress whole if assigned, so there is no need to FIGHT below it. Three income options to consider, richer → safer, all at/above CC-SS. Click a card for its if-challenged roll menu.
🎯 Recommended · sell 200 × $15 7 Aug 2026 (15d) · richest strike still ≥80% survivalroll menu if challenged ▾
Survival (stays ≤ $15)
85%
Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 200 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 7 of 15); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic
Buyback gross: $1.53/sh now → $1.09 mid-life (likely $1.05–$1.57) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.31/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.78/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours
📊 Across 777 simulated challenges: the $15 strike is typically first touched on day 8 of 15, at $15 (overshoots $0.47). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (200 ct) | POP / surv
of new CC |
|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$15 | 14 Aug 2026 | 14d left | +$0.23/sh | +$4,563 cycle +$10,763 [+$2,814…+$6,325] · 99% credit | 69% surv 54% |
| Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%) | ~$15 | 14 Aug 2026 | 14d left | +$0.23/sh | +$4,583 cycle +$10,783 [+$2,897…+$6,339] · 99% credit | 69% surv 55% |
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$16 | 14 Aug 2026 | 14d left | +$0.02/sh | +$310 cycle +$6,510 [-$1,817…+$1,521] · 39% credit | 72% surv 61% |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$16 | 14 Aug 2026 | 14d left | +$0.02/sh | +$310 cycle +$6,510 [-$1,817…+$1,521] · 39% credit | 72% surv 61% |
| SS $41 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder |
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$16 | 14 Aug 2026 | 14d left | -$0.16/sh | -$3,183 cycle +$3,017 [-$5,803…-$2,426] · 13% credit | 75% surv 66% |
| budget: banked $6,200 debit $3,183 (51% used ≈ 1.1 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$3,017 cash · rolled 200 ct earn ≈ $39,718/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell |
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP.
Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened.
🛡 Safer · sell 200 × $18.50 31 Jul 2026 (8d) · higher survival, lighter premiumroll menu if challenged ▾
Survival (stays ≤ $18.50)
100%
Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 200 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 8); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic
Buyback gross: $1.49/sh now → $1.05 mid-life → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.01/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$1.04/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (200 ct) | POP / surv
of new CC |
|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$18 | 7 Aug 2026 | 11d left | +$0.59/sh | +$11,799 cycle +$11,999 | 69% surv 54% |
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$20 | 7 Aug 2026 | 11d left | +$0.01/sh | +$208 cycle +$408 | 76% surv 68% |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$21 | 14 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$0.09/sh | +$1,880 cycle +$2,080 | 79% surv 73% |
| SS $41 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder |
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP.
Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened.
🛡 Safer · sell 200 × $19 31 Jul 2026 (8d) · higher survival, lighter premiumroll menu if challenged ▾
Survival (stays ≤ $19)
100%
Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 200 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 8); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic
Buyback gross: $1.55/sh now → $1.10 mid-life → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.01/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$1.09/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (200 ct) | POP / surv
of new CC |
|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$19 | 7 Aug 2026 | 11d left | +$0.62/sh | +$12,313 cycle +$12,513 | 69% surv 54% |
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$21 | 7 Aug 2026 | 11d left | +$0.03/sh | +$695 cycle +$895 | 76% surv 68% |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$22 | 14 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$0.02/sh | +$409 cycle +$609 | 80% surv 75% |
| SS $41 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder |
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP.
Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened.
⚔ FIGHT CC options · full candidate scan (10 clear the floor), click to expand
Every eligible strike x expiry in the 4-45 DTE band (3 expiries scanned, 10 clear the income floor), each sized to the minimum contracts that clear it. Sorted by survival (safest first): the primary 🎯 is the safest; rows below trade safety for income.
Fortress delta: 0.097 (IBKR) | Recovery@SS: +$4,634 (un-capped fortress gain if stock rallies to SS) | Do-nothing @ SS: $234
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|
| $14 | 8d | 31 Jul 2026 | $0.28 | 199/200 | $20,895 | $20,899 | 80% | 84% | +$8,848 | -$11,463 | 104.2% | $-11,627 (vs do-nothing $-11,861) |
| $13.50 | 8d | 31 Jul 2026 | $0.39 | 143/200 | $20,914 | $21,142 | 73% | 79% | +$7,089 | -$13,814 | 125.6% | $-13,866 (vs do-nothing $-14,100) |
| $13.50 | 15d | 7 Aug 2026 | $0.64 | 163/200 | $20,864 | $21,012 | 69% | 77% | +$5,751 | -$11,671 | 106.1% | $-11,763 (vs do-nothing $-11,997) |
| $13.50 | 22d | 14 Aug 2026 | $0.84 | 182/200 | $20,847 | $20,919 | 67% | 76% | +$5,074 | -$9,392 | 85.4% | $-9,522 (vs do-nothing $-9,756) |
| $13 | 8d | 31 Jul 2026 | $0.54 | 103/200 | $20,858 | $21,246 | 64% | 74% | +$5,257 | -$13,555 | 123.2% | $-13,527 (vs do-nothing $-13,761) |
| $13 | 15d | 7 Aug 2026 | $0.83 | 126/200 | $20,916 | $21,212 | 62% | 73% | +$5,075 | -$12,928 | 117.5% | $-12,946 (vs do-nothing $-13,180) |
| $13 | 22d | 14 Aug 2026 | $1.01 | 152/200 | $20,935 | $21,127 | 62% | 73% | +$4,204 | -$12,860 | 116.9% | $-12,930 (vs do-nothing $-13,164) |
| $12.50 | 22d | 14 Aug 2026 | $1.22 | 126/200 | $20,962 | $21,258 | 55% | 70% | +$3,519 | -$14,314 | 130.1% | $-14,332 (vs do-nothing $-14,566) |
| $12.50 | 15d | 7 Aug 2026 | $1.04 | 100/200 | $20,800 | $21,200 | 55% | 70% | +$4,082 | -$13,160 | 119.6% | $-13,126 (vs do-nothing $-13,360) |
| $12.50 | 8d | 31 Jul 2026 | $0.76 | 73/200 | $20,805 | $21,313 | 54% | 69% | +$4,203 | -$11,651 | 105.9% | $-11,563 (vs do-nothing $-11,797) |
Income/mo = FIGHT leg gross, DTE-prorated. Net/mo = FIGHT + conservative CC gross minus hedge cost. POP (mid) = probability stock closes at or below (strike + mid premium) at expiry, per-strike chain IV when available. Survival = CC expires fully worthless. EV/mo = premium minus expected buyback, monthly, with realized vol = IV x 85% (variance risk premium 15%). Cap give-up @ SS = recovery mortgaged on a V-bounce to SS, net of premium. Total P&L @ SS = absolute position P&L if the stock closes at SS; "vs do-nothing" = opportunity cost against holding all 200 contracts at the conservative CC.