MARA-LC40 @ $12.43 UNDERWATER $28.12 (69.3% below BE SS)
⚠ EARNINGS · DO NOT SELL INCOME INTO IT
MARA reports 2026-08-07 (Fri), in 15 days. The recommended CC (15d) expires on/after it, so selling now holds a short call through the earnings gap, a report can blow past your strike overnight and cap you at a loss. Wait for the print, or sell only an expiry that closes BEFORE 2026-08-07.
200 contracts (20,000 sh) | BE SS: $40.55 | CC-SS: $14.79 | IV: HIGH | Accounts: Main:1299
LC: $40 exp 2027-01-15 (entry $0.557/sh)
Economics
| Max Loss | $11,000 | (ND $0.55 + SW $0) x 20000 |
| Normal income ref | $34,000/mo | 95% ann ROI on ML |
| Hedge (static, never rolled) | $0/mo | HP expiry = SP LEAPS; decay ≈ $0/mo (info only, already in marks) |
| Unrealized P&L | $-4,700 | fortress legs from IBKR |
INCOME GOALPOSTS & VELOCITY
50% INCOME FLOOR
$17,000/mo
HEDGE COVER
$0/mo (static)
NORMAL INCOME
$34,000/mo (ATM CC, chain)
IC VELOCITY
0.3 mo to earn back $11,000
ML VELOCITY
0.3 mo to earn back $11,000
NOT a deep drawdown: a CC at CC-SS $14.79 (probe: $15C 15d) still earns $8,000/mo (24% of normal). Sell the normal CC at/above CC-SS; a FIGHT CC below it is not needed here.
🏦 Campaign ledger: seeded, nothing tracked yet. Open short calls and banked credits appear here from the next cycle on; the banked-floor (info) shows how far premium would ratchet the floor, but the recommended CC-SS stays the pure recovery strike.
TECHNICALS (cc_timing weekly gate + daily trigger)
WEEKLYNEUTRAL · %B 58 (live) · RSI 51 · MACD bullish, hist falling
DAILYMIXED (provisional) · RSI 47 · %B 47 · hist rising (nightly)
LEVELSUpper BB (CC ceiling) $15.79 (+27%) · daily UBB $14.33 · 1-wk expected move ±$2 (chain IV)
SETUPNo tilt: engine default. (advisory; floors and picks are chain-only)
⚠ Next earnings 2026-08-07: candidates whose expiry crosses it are flagged in the spectrum; EV is unreliable across earnings.
NOT a deep drawdown. A CC at/above CC-SS $14.79 keeps this fortress whole if assigned, so there is no need to FIGHT below it. Three income options to consider, richer → safer, all at/above CC-SS. Click a card for its if-challenged roll menu.
🎯 Recommended · sell 200 × $15 7 Aug 2026 (15d) · richest strike still ≥80% survivalroll menu if challenged ▾
Survival (stays ≤ $15)
85%
Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 200 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 7 of 15); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic
Buyback gross: $1.64/sh now → $1.16 mid-life (likely $1.09–$1.67) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.20/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.96/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours
📊 Across 760 simulated challenges: the $15 strike is typically first touched on day 9 of 15, at $15 (overshoots $0.47). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (200 ct) | POP / surv
of new CC |
|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$15 | 14 Aug 2026 | 14d left | -$0.01/sh | -$267 cycle +$3,733 [-$3,664…+$1,520] · 35% credit | 67% surv 54% |
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP.
Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened.
🛡 Safer · sell 200 × $20 31 Jul 2026 (8d) · higher survival, lighter premiumroll menu if challenged ▾
Survival (stays ≤ $20)
99%
Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 200 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 8); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic
Buyback gross: $1.72/sh now → $1.22 mid-life → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.01/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$1.21/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (200 ct) | POP / surv
of new CC |
|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$20 | 7 Aug 2026 | 11d left | +$0.31/sh | +$6,144 cycle +$6,344 | 67% surv 55% |
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$21 | 7 Aug 2026 | 11d left | +$0.15/sh | +$3,049 cycle +$3,249 | 73% surv 63% |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$22 | 14 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$0.22/sh | +$4,318 cycle +$4,518 | 74% surv 66% |
| SS $41 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder |
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP.
Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened.
🛡 Safer · sell 200 × $18.50 31 Jul 2026 (8d) · higher survival, lighter premiumroll menu if challenged ▾
Survival (stays ≤ $18.50)
100%
Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 200 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 8); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic
Buyback gross: $1.52/sh now → $1.08 mid-life → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.01/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$1.07/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (200 ct) | POP / surv
of new CC |
|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$18 | 7 Aug 2026 | 11d left | +$0.27/sh | +$5,444 cycle +$5,644 | 67% surv 54% |
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$20 | 7 Aug 2026 | 11d left | +$0.09/sh | +$1,758 cycle +$1,958 | 74% surv 64% |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$20 | 14 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$0.13/sh | +$2,623 cycle +$2,823 | 74% surv 67% |
| SS $41 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder |
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP.
Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened.
⚔ FIGHT CC options · full candidate scan (8 clear the floor), click to expand
Every eligible strike x expiry in the 4-45 DTE band (3 expiries scanned, 8 clear the income floor), each sized to the minimum contracts that clear it. Sorted by survival (safest first): the primary 🎯 is the safest; rows below trade safety for income.
Fortress delta: 0.096 (IBKR) | Recovery@SS: +$4,527 (un-capped fortress gain if stock rallies to SS) | Do-nothing @ SS: $27
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|
| $13.50 | 8d | 31 Jul 2026 | $0.33 | 138/200 | $17,078 | $17,202 | 74% | 79% | +$4,567 | -$13,216 | 120.1% | $-13,327 (vs do-nothing $-13,354) |
| $13.50 | 15d | 7 Aug 2026 | $0.60 | 142/200 | $17,040 | $17,156 | 69% | 77% | +$4,149 | -$9,765 | 88.8% | $-9,880 (vs do-nothing $-9,907) |
| $13 | 8d | 31 Jul 2026 | $0.49 | 93/200 | $17,089 | $17,303 | 65% | 74% | +$3,418 | -$12,068 | 109.7% | $-12,135 (vs do-nothing $-12,161) |
| $13 | 15d | 7 Aug 2026 | $0.69 | 124/200 | $17,112 | $17,264 | 63% | 73% | +$1,835 | -$13,611 | 123.7% | $-13,708 (vs do-nothing $-13,735) |
| $13 | 22d | 14 Aug 2026 | $0.84 | 149/200 | $17,067 | $17,169 | 62% | 73% | +$937 | -$14,120 | 128.4% | $-14,242 (vs do-nothing $-14,269) |
| $12.50 | 22d | 14 Aug 2026 | $1.06 | 118/200 | $17,056 | $17,220 | 56% | 70% | +$663 | -$14,486 | 131.7% | $-14,578 (vs do-nothing $-14,604) |
| $12.50 | 15d | 7 Aug 2026 | $0.85 | 100/200 | $17,000 | $17,200 | 55% | 70% | +$594 | -$14,377 | 130.7% | $-14,450 (vs do-nothing $-14,477) |
| $12.50 | 8d | 31 Jul 2026 | $0.66 | 69/200 | $17,078 | $17,340 | 54% | 69% | +$2,204 | -$11,231 | 102.1% | $-11,273 (vs do-nothing $-11,300) |
Income/mo = FIGHT leg gross, DTE-prorated. Net/mo = FIGHT + conservative CC gross minus hedge cost. POP (mid) = probability stock closes at or below (strike + mid premium) at expiry, per-strike chain IV when available. Survival = CC expires fully worthless. EV/mo = premium minus expected buyback, monthly, with realized vol = IV x 85% (variance risk premium 15%). Cap give-up @ SS = recovery mortgaged on a V-bounce to SS, net of premium. Total P&L @ SS = absolute position P&L if the stock closes at SS; "vs do-nothing" = opportunity cost against holding all 200 contracts at the conservative CC.