MARA-LC40 @ $12.63 UNDERWATER $27.92 (68.9% below BE SS)
⚠ EARNINGS · DO NOT SELL INCOME INTO IT
MARA reports 2026-08-07 (Fri), in 15 days. The recommended CC (15d) expires on/after it, so selling now holds a short call through the earnings gap, a report can blow past your strike overnight and cap you at a loss. Wait for the print, or sell only an expiry that closes BEFORE 2026-08-07.
200 contracts (20,000 sh) | BE SS: $40.55 | CC-SS: $14.94 | IV: HIGH | Accounts: Main:1299
LC: $40 exp 2027-01-15 (entry $0.557/sh)
Economics
| Max Loss | $11,000 | (ND $0.55 + SW $0) x 20000 |
| Normal income ref | $39,204/mo | 95% ann ROI on ML |
| Hedge (static, never rolled) | $0/mo | HP expiry = SP LEAPS; decay ≈ $0/mo (info only, already in marks) |
| Unrealized P&L | $-4,600 | fortress legs from IBKR |
INCOME GOALPOSTS & VELOCITY
50% INCOME FLOOR
$19,602/mo
HEDGE COVER
$0/mo (static)
NORMAL INCOME
$39,204/mo (ATM CC, chain)
IC VELOCITY
0.3 mo to earn back $11,000
ML VELOCITY
0.3 mo to earn back $11,000
NOT a deep drawdown: a CC at CC-SS $14.94 (probe: $15C 15d) still earns $12,400/mo (32% of normal). Sell the normal CC at/above CC-SS; a FIGHT CC below it is not needed here.
🏦 Campaign ledger: seeded, nothing tracked yet. Open short calls and banked credits appear here from the next cycle on; the banked-floor (info) shows how far premium would ratchet the floor, but the recommended CC-SS stays the pure recovery strike.
TECHNICALS (cc_timing weekly gate + daily trigger)
WEEKLYNEUTRAL · %B 60 (live) · RSI 53 · MACD bullish, hist falling
DAILYRISING (provisional) · RSI 48 · %B 51 · hist rising (nightly)
LEVELSUpper BB (CC ceiling) $15.83 (+25%) · daily UBB $14.36 · 1-wk expected move ±$2 (chain IV)
SETUPNo tilt: engine default. (advisory; floors and picks are chain-only)
⚠ Next earnings 2026-08-07: candidates whose expiry crosses it are flagged in the spectrum; EV is unreliable across earnings.
NOT a deep drawdown. A CC at/above CC-SS $14.94 keeps this fortress whole if assigned, so there is no need to FIGHT below it. Three income options to consider, richer → safer, all at/above CC-SS. Click a card for its if-challenged roll menu.
🎯 Recommended · sell 200 × $15 7 Aug 2026 (15d) · richest strike still ≥80% survivalroll menu if challenged ▾
Survival (stays ≤ $15)
83%
Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 200 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 7 of 15); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic
Buyback gross: $1.45/sh now → $1.02 mid-life (likely $0.98–$1.52) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.31/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.71/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours
📊 Across 866 simulated challenges: the $15 strike is typically first touched on day 8 of 15, at $15 (overshoots $0.46). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (200 ct) | POP / surv
of new CC |
|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$15 | 14 Aug 2026 | 14d left | +$0.30/sh | +$5,990 cycle +$12,190 [+$4,576…+$7,671] · 100% credit | 69% surv 54% |
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$15 | 14 Aug 2026 | 14d left | +$0.14/sh | +$2,839 cycle +$9,039 [+$1,137…+$4,120] · 93% credit | 71% surv 59% |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$15 | 14 Aug 2026 | 14d left | +$0.14/sh | +$2,839 cycle +$9,039 [+$1,137…+$4,120] · 93% credit | 71% surv 59% |
| SS $41 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder |
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$16 | 14 Aug 2026 | 14d left | -$0.23/sh | -$4,567 cycle +$1,633 [-$7,520…-$3,990] · 6% credit | 77% surv 70% |
| budget: banked $6,200 debit $4,567 (74% used ≈ 1.6 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$1,633 cash · rolled 200 ct earn ≈ $34,080/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell |
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP.
Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened.
🛡 Safer · sell 200 × $16 7 Aug 2026 (15d) · higher survival, lighter premiumroll menu if challenged ▾
Survival (stays ≤ $16)
90%
Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 200 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 7 of 15); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic
Buyback gross: $1.60/sh now → $1.13 mid-life (likely $0.92–$1.47) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.17/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.96/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours
📊 Across 516 simulated challenges: the $16 strike is typically first touched on day 10 of 15, at $16 (overshoots $0.45). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (200 ct) | POP / surv
of new CC |
|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$16 | 14 Aug 2026 | 14d left | +$0.33/sh | +$6,601 cycle +$10,001 [+$5,910…+$9,830] · 100% credit | 69% surv 54% |
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$16 | 14 Aug 2026 | 14d left | +$0.17/sh | +$3,455 cycle +$6,855 [+$2,460…+$6,353] · 99% credit | 71% surv 58% |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$16 | 14 Aug 2026 | 14d left | +$0.17/sh | +$3,455 cycle +$6,855 [+$2,460…+$6,353] · 99% credit | 71% surv 58% |
| SS $41 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder |
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$17 | 14 Aug 2026 | 14d left | -$0.02/sh | -$484 cycle +$2,916 [-$1,845…+$1,915] · 43% credit | 74% surv 64% |
| budget: banked $3,400 debit $484 (14% used ≈ 0.3 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$2,916 cash · rolled 200 ct earn ≈ $47,450/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell |
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP.
Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened.
🛡 Safer · sell 200 × $20 31 Jul 2026 (8d) · higher survival, lighter premiumroll menu if challenged ▾
Survival (stays ≤ $20)
99%
Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 200 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 8); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic
Buyback gross: $1.57/sh now → $1.11 mid-life → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.01/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$1.10/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (200 ct) | POP / surv
of new CC |
|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$20 | 7 Aug 2026 | 11d left | +$0.73/sh | +$14,600 cycle +$14,800 | 69% surv 54% |
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$21 | 7 Aug 2026 | 11d left | +$0.15/sh | +$2,916 cycle +$3,116 | 75% surv 66% |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$22 | 14 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$0.25/sh | +$5,006 cycle +$5,206 | 77% surv 70% |
| SS $41 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder |
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP.
Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened.
⚔ FIGHT CC options · full candidate scan (12 clear the floor), click to expand
Every eligible strike x expiry in the 4-45 DTE band (3 expiries scanned, 12 clear the income floor), each sized to the minimum contracts that clear it. Sorted by survival (safest first): the primary 🎯 is the safest; rows below trade safety for income.
Fortress delta: 0.096 (IBKR) | Recovery@SS: +$4,445 (un-capped fortress gain if stock rallies to SS) | Do-nothing @ SS: $45
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|
| $14 | 8d | 31 Jul 2026 | $0.27 | 194/200 | $19,643 | $19,655 | 79% | 82% | +$6,549 | -$13,094 | 119.0% | $-13,243 (vs do-nothing $-13,288) |
| $14 | 15d | 7 Aug 2026 | $0.53 | 185/200 | $19,610 | $19,640 | 73% | 79% | +$5,415 | -$7,677 | 69.8% | $-7,817 (vs do-nothing $-7,862) |
| $14 | 22d | 14 Aug 2026 | $0.74 | 195/200 | $19,677 | $19,687 | 70% | 77% | +$4,629 | -$3,997 | 36.3% | $-4,147 (vs do-nothing $-4,192) |
| $13.50 | 8d | 31 Jul 2026 | $0.40 | 131/200 | $19,650 | $19,788 | 70% | 77% | +$5,324 | -$13,689 | 124.4% | $-13,775 (vs do-nothing $-13,820) |
| $13.50 | 15d | 7 Aug 2026 | $0.69 | 143/200 | $19,734 | $19,848 | 67% | 75% | +$4,743 | -$10,796 | 98.1% | $-10,894 (vs do-nothing $-10,939) |
| $13.50 | 22d | 14 Aug 2026 | $0.91 | 158/200 | $19,606 | $19,690 | 65% | 75% | +$4,113 | -$8,453 | 76.8% | $-8,566 (vs do-nothing $-8,611) |
| $13 | 8d | 31 Jul 2026 | $0.57 | 92/200 | $19,665 | $19,881 | 61% | 72% | +$3,933 | -$12,650 | 115.0% | $-12,697 (vs do-nothing $-12,742) |
| $13 | 15d | 7 Aug 2026 | $0.88 | 112/200 | $19,712 | $19,888 | 60% | 72% | +$3,962 | -$11,928 | 108.4% | $-11,995 (vs do-nothing $-12,040) |
| $13 | 22d | 14 Aug 2026 | $1.10 | 131/200 | $19,650 | $19,788 | 60% | 72% | +$3,485 | -$11,069 | 100.6% | $-11,155 (vs do-nothing $-11,200) |
| $12.50 | 22d | 14 Aug 2026 | $1.31 | 110/200 | $19,650 | $19,830 | 53% | 69% | +$2,753 | -$12,485 | 113.5% | $-12,550 (vs do-nothing $-12,595) |
| $12.50 | 15d | 7 Aug 2026 | $1.11 | 89/200 | $19,758 | $19,980 | 52% | 69% | +$3,289 | -$11,881 | 108.0% | $-11,925 (vs do-nothing $-11,970) |
| $12.50 | 8d | 31 Jul 2026 | $0.79 | 67/200 | $19,849 | $20,115 | 50% | 67% | +$2,694 | -$11,088 | 100.8% | $-11,110 (vs do-nothing $-11,155) |
Income/mo = FIGHT leg gross, DTE-prorated. Net/mo = FIGHT + conservative CC gross minus hedge cost. POP (mid) = probability stock closes at or below (strike + mid premium) at expiry, per-strike chain IV when available. Survival = CC expires fully worthless. EV/mo = premium minus expected buyback, monthly, with realized vol = IV x 85% (variance risk premium 15%). Cap give-up @ SS = recovery mortgaged on a V-bounce to SS, net of premium. Total P&L @ SS = absolute position P&L if the stock closes at SS; "vs do-nothing" = opportunity cost against holding all 200 contracts at the conservative CC.