MARA-LC40 @ $12.68 UNDERWATER $27.87 (68.7% below BE SS)
⚠ EARNINGS · DO NOT SELL INCOME INTO IT
MARA reports 2026-08-07 (Fri), in 14 days. The recommended CC (14d) expires on/after it, so selling now holds a short call through the earnings gap, a report can blow past your strike overnight and cap you at a loss. Wait for the print, or sell only an expiry that closes BEFORE 2026-08-07.
PARTIAL: 100 of 200 contracts already capped (100x $14C). FIGHTing the 100 uncapped; all figures (income, hedge, cap give-up) are for that slice.
100 of 200 contracts (10,000 sh uncapped) | BE SS: $40.55 | CC-SS: $15.18 | IV: HIGH | Accounts: Main:1299
LC: $40 exp 2027-01-15 (entry $0.557/sh)
Economics
| Max Loss | $5,500 | (ND $0.55 + SW $0) x 10000 |
| Normal income ref | $12,964/mo | 95% ann ROI on ML |
| Hedge (static, never rolled) | $0/mo | HP expiry = SP LEAPS; decay ≈ $0/mo (info only, already in marks) |
| Unrealized P&L | $-2,550 | fortress legs from IBKR |
INCOME GOALPOSTS & VELOCITY
50% INCOME FLOOR
$6,482/mo
HEDGE COVER
$0/mo (static)
NORMAL INCOME
$12,964/mo (ATM CC, chain)
IC VELOCITY
0.4 mo to earn back $5,500
ML VELOCITY
0.4 mo to earn back $5,500
NOT a deep drawdown: a CC at CC-SS $15.18 (probe: $15C 14d) still earns $3,214/mo (25% of normal). Sell the normal CC at/above CC-SS; a FIGHT CC below it is not needed here.
🏦 CAMPAIGN LEDGER , realized CC income since 2026-07-16; banked cash shrinks the hole (shown as an info-only banked floor, the recommended CC-SS stays the pure recovery strike; seeded from open positions, reconciled from IBKR executions nightly)
Banked since 2026-07-16
$0
Hole (after banked)
$2,550
was $2,550 · 0% earned back
| Open leg | Acct | Credit/sh | In flight | Opened |
|---|
| 34x $14.5C 31 Jul 2026 | U10001299 | $0.21 | $714 | 2026-07-24 |
TECHNICALS (cc_timing weekly gate + daily trigger)
WEEKLYNEUTRAL · %B 61 (live) · RSI 52 · MACD bullish, hist falling
DAILYRISING (provisional) · RSI 49 · %B 56 · hist rising (nightly)
LEVELSUpper BB (CC ceiling) $15.81 (+25%) · daily UBB $14.02 · 1-wk expected move ±$2 (chain IV)
SETUPNo tilt: engine default. (advisory; floors and picks are chain-only)
⚠ Next earnings 2026-08-07: candidates whose expiry crosses it are flagged in the spectrum; EV is unreliable across earnings.
NOT a deep drawdown. A CC at/above CC-SS $15.18 keeps this fortress whole if assigned, so there is no need to FIGHT below it. Three income options to consider, richer → safer, all at/above CC-SS. Click a card for its if-challenged roll menu.
🎯 Recommended · sell 100 × $15.50 7 Aug 2026 (14d) · richest strike still ≥80% survivalroll menu if challenged ▾
Survival (stays ≤ $15.50)
87%
Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 100 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 7 of 14); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic
Buyback gross: $1.32/sh now → $0.93 mid-life (likely $0.84–$1.32) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.13/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.80/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours
📊 Across 659 simulated challenges: the $16 strike is typically first touched on day 8 of 14, at $16 (overshoots $0.48). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (100 ct) | POP / surv
of new CC |
|---|
| Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%) | ~$16 | 21 Aug 2026 | 21d left | +$0.21/sh | +$2,119 cycle +$3,419 [+$1,238…+$3,243] · 97% credit | 72% surv 63% |
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$16 | 14 Aug 2026 | 14d left | +$0.07/sh | +$745 cycle +$2,045 [-$274…+$1,742] · 66% credit | 65% surv 54% |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$17 | 21 Aug 2026 | 21d left | +$0.02/sh | +$161 cycle +$1,461 [-$967…+$1,191] · 47% credit | 74% surv 67% |
| SS $41 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder |
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP.
Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened.
🛡 Safer · sell 100 × $16 7 Aug 2026 (14d) · higher survival, lighter premiumroll menu if challenged ▾
Survival (stays ≤ $16)
90%
Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 100 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 7 of 14); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic
Buyback gross: $1.38/sh now → $0.98 mid-life (likely $0.80–$1.30) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.02/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.96/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours
📊 Across 483 simulated challenges: the $16 strike is typically first touched on day 9 of 14, at $16 (overshoots $0.48). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (100 ct) | POP / surv
of new CC |
|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$16 | 14 Aug 2026 | 14d left | +$0.08/sh | +$783 cycle +$983 [+$44…+$2,244] · 77% credit | 65% surv 54% |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$17 | 21 Aug 2026 | 21d left | +$0.04/sh | +$374 cycle +$574 [-$459…+$1,927] · 62% credit | 74% surv 67% |
| SS $41 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder |
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP.
Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened.
🛡 Safer · sell 100 × $30 21 Aug 2026 (28d) · higher survival, lighter premiumroll menu if challenged ▾
Survival (stays ≤ $30)
100%
Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 100 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 14 of 28); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic
Buyback gross: $6.17/sh now → $4.38 mid-life → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.01/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$4.37/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (100 ct) | POP / surv
of new CC |
|---|
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP.
Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened.
⚔ FIGHT CC options · full candidate scan (16 clear the floor), click to expand
Every eligible strike x expiry in the 4-45 DTE band (4 expiries scanned, 16 clear the income floor), each sized to the minimum contracts that clear it. Sorted by survival (safest first): the primary 🎯 is the safest; rows below trade safety for income.
Fortress delta: 0.094 (IBKR) | Recovery@SS: +$2,356 (un-capped fortress gain if stock rallies to SS) | Do-nothing @ SS: $-94
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|
| $14 | 7d | 31 Jul 2026 | $0.17 | 89/100 | $6,484 | $6,508 | 79% | 82% | +$417 | -$9,001 | 163.7% | $-9,184 (vs do-nothing $-9,090) |
| $14 | 14d | 7 Aug 2026 | $0.35 | 87/100 | $6,525 | $6,553 | 73% | 78% | $-473 | -$7,233 | 131.5% | $-7,414 (vs do-nothing $-7,320) |
| $13.50 | 7d | 31 Jul 2026 | $0.26 | 59/100 | $6,574 | $6,662 | 71% | 77% | $-137 | -$8,386 | 152.5% | $-8,539 (vs do-nothing $-8,445) |
| $14 | 21d | 14 Aug 2026 | $0.53 | 86/100 | $6,511 | $6,541 | 70% | 76% | $-334 | -$5,602 | 101.8% | $-5,782 (vs do-nothing $-5,688) |
| $14 | 28d | 21 Aug 2026 | $0.75 | 81/100 | $6,509 | $6,550 | 69% | 77% | +$644 | -$3,494 | 63.5% | $-3,669 (vs do-nothing $-3,575) |
| $13.50 | 14d | 7 Aug 2026 | $0.46 | 66/100 | $6,506 | $6,579 | 66% | 74% | $-830 | -$8,061 | 146.6% | $-8,221 (vs do-nothing $-8,127) |
| $13.50 | 21d | 14 Aug 2026 | $0.51 | 89/100 | $6,484 | $6,508 | 65% | 74% | $-2,537 | -$10,425 | 189.5% | $-10,608 (vs do-nothing $-10,514) |
| $13.50 | 28d | 21 Aug 2026 | $0.93 | 66/100 | $6,576 | $6,649 | 64% | 73% | +$650 | -$4,959 | 90.2% | $-5,119 (vs do-nothing $-5,025) |
| $13 | 7d | 31 Jul 2026 | $0.43 | 36/100 | $6,634 | $6,771 | 60% | 70% | +$41 | -$6,305 | 114.6% | $-6,435 (vs do-nothing $-6,341) |
| $13 | 28d | 21 Aug 2026 | $1.08 | 57/100 | $6,596 | $6,688 | 59% | 71% | +$296 | -$6,278 | 114.1% | $-6,429 (vs do-nothing $-6,335) |
| $13 | 14d | 7 Aug 2026 | $0.50 | 61/100 | $6,536 | $6,619 | 59% | 69% | $-2,658 | -$10,256 | 186.5% | $-10,411 (vs do-nothing $-10,317) |
| $13 | 21d | 14 Aug 2026 | $0.77 | 59/100 | $6,490 | $6,578 | 59% | 69% | $-1,055 | -$8,327 | 151.4% | $-8,480 (vs do-nothing $-8,386) |
| $12.50 | 28d | 21 Aug 2026 | $1.20 | 51/100 | $6,557 | $6,662 | 53% | 68% | $-319 | -$7,555 | 137.4% | $-7,700 (vs do-nothing $-7,606) |
Show 3 more candidates (lower strikes: more income, lower survival)
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|
| $12.50 | 21d | 14 Aug 2026 | $0.98 | 47/100 | $6,580 | $6,694 | 53% | 66% | $-926 | -$7,996 | 145.4% | $-8,137 (vs do-nothing $-8,043) |
| $12.50 | 14d | 7 Aug 2026 | $0.78 | 39/100 | $6,519 | $6,649 | 51% | 65% | $-1,287 | -$7,415 | 134.8% | $-7,548 (vs do-nothing $-7,454) |
| $12.50 | 7d | 31 Jul 2026 | $0.62 | 25/100 | $6,643 | $6,804 | 48% | 64% | $-399 | -$5,153 | 93.7% | $-5,272 (vs do-nothing $-5,178) |
Income/mo = FIGHT leg gross, DTE-prorated. Net/mo = FIGHT + conservative CC gross minus hedge cost. POP (mid) = probability stock closes at or below (strike + mid premium) at expiry, per-strike chain IV when available. Survival = CC expires fully worthless. EV/mo = premium minus expected buyback, monthly, with realized vol = IV x 85% (variance risk premium 15%). Cap give-up @ SS = recovery mortgaged on a V-bounce to SS, net of premium. Total P&L @ SS = absolute position P&L if the stock closes at SS; "vs do-nothing" = opportunity cost against holding all 100 contracts at the conservative CC.