FORTRESS FIGHT: MARA-LC40 @ $11.60

BE SS: $40.55 | CC-SS: $14.48 | 200 contracts (20,000 sh) | ⌂ PORTFOLIO

MARA-LC40 @ $11.60 UNDERWATER $28.95 (71.4% below BE SS)

⚠ EARNINGS · SHORT EXPIRY ONLY

MARA reports 2026-08-07 (Fri), in 10 days. The recommended CC (3d) closes BEFORE earnings , that one is safe , but the richer/longer options below expire after it and would sell through the gap. Keep the tenor inside 2026-08-07.

200 contracts (20,000 sh) | BE SS: $40.55 | CC-SS: $14.48 | IV: HIGH | Accounts: Main:1299

LC: $40 exp 2027-01-15 (entry $0.557/sh)

Economics

Max Loss	$11,000	(ND $0.55 + SW $0) x 20000
Normal income ref	$34,024/mo	95% ann ROI on ML
Hedge (static, never rolled)	$0/mo	HP expiry = SP LEAPS; decay ≈ $0/mo (info only, already in marks)
Unrealized P&L	$-5,800	fortress legs from IBKR

INCOME GOALPOSTS & VELOCITY

50% INCOME FLOOR
$17,012/mo

HEDGE COVER
$0/mo (static)

NORMAL INCOME
$34,024/mo (ATM CC, chain)

IC VELOCITY
0.3 mo to earn back $11,000

ML VELOCITY
0.3 mo to earn back $11,000

NOT a deep drawdown: a CC at CC-SS $14.48 (probe: $14.5C 17d) still earns $9,529/mo (28% of normal). Sell the normal CC at/above CC-SS; a FIGHT CC below it is not needed here.

🏦 CAMPAIGN LEDGER , realized CC income since 2026-07-16; banked cash shrinks the hole (shown as an info-only banked floor, the recommended CC-SS stays the pure recovery strike; seeded from open positions, reconciled from IBKR executions nightly)

Banked since 2026-07-16

Hole (after banked)

$5,800

was $5,800 · 0% earned back

Cycles closed

Credit in flight

$714

Open leg	Acct	Credit/sh	In flight	Opened
34x $14.5C 31 Jul 2026	U10001299	$0.21	$714	2026-07-24

TECHNICALS (cc_timing weekly gate + daily trigger)

WEEKLYNEUTRAL · %B 46 (live) · RSI 49 · MACD bearish, hist falling

DAILYFALLING (provisional) · RSI 42 · %B 26 · hist falling (nightly)

LEVELSUpper BB (CC ceiling) $15.73 (+36%) · daily UBB $13.71 · 1-wk expected move ±$2 (chain IV)

SETUPNo tilt: engine default. (advisory; floors and picks are chain-only)

⚠ Next earnings 2026-08-07: candidates whose expiry crosses it are flagged in the spectrum; EV is unreliable across earnings.

NOT a deep drawdown. A CC at/above CC-SS $14.48 keeps this fortress whole if assigned, so there is no need to FIGHT below it. Three income options to consider, richer → safer, all at/above CC-SS. Click a card for its if-challenged roll menu.

💰 Richer · sell 200 × $15.50 21 Aug 2026 (24d) · more income, lower survivalroll menu if challenged ▾

Survival (stays ≤ $15.50)

90%

Touch odds

22%

Per cycle

$4,400

Income / mo

$5,500

💰 Richer · sell 200 × $15 14 Aug 2026 (17d) · more income, lower survivalroll menu if challenged ▾

Survival (stays ≤ $15)

90%

Touch odds

21%

Per cycle

$3,400

Income / mo

$6,000

Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 200 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 8 of 17); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic

Buyback gross: $1.66/sh now → $1.18 mid-life (likely $1.01–$1.59) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.17/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$1.01/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours

📊 Across 537 simulated challenges: the $15 strike is typically first touched on day 10 of 17, at $15 (overshoots $0.47). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (200 ct)	POP / surv of new CC
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$15	21 Aug 2026	16d left	+$0.32/sh	+$6,442 cycle +$9,842 [+$5,920…+$9,301] · 100% credit	70% surv 55%
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)	~$15	21 Aug 2026	16d left	+$0.18/sh	+$3,686 cycle +$7,086 [+$3,142…+$6,126] · 100% credit	72% surv 59%
Max even-money escape in the band	~$15	21 Aug 2026	16d left	+$0.18/sh	+$3,686 cycle +$7,086 [+$3,142…+$6,126] · 100% credit	72% surv 59%
SS $41 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)	~$16	21 Aug 2026	16d left	-$0.09/sh	-$1,728 cycle +$1,672 [-$3,170…+$197] · 28% credit	74% surv 64%
budget: banked $3,400 debit $1,728 (51% used ≈ 1.3 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$1,672 cash · rolled 200 ct earn ≈ $40,872/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell

POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP.

Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened.

🎯 Recommended · sell 200 × $14.50 31 Jul 2026 (3d) · richest strike still ≥80% survivalroll menu if challenged ▾

Survival (stays ≤ $14.50)

99%

Touch odds

Per cycle

$400

Income / mo

$4,000

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (200 ct)	POP / surv of new CC
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$14	7 Aug 2026	8d left	+$0.56/sh	+$11,286 cycle +$11,686	71% surv 53%
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)	~$16	7 Aug 2026	8d left	+$0.16/sh	+$3,155 cycle +$3,555	86% surv 79%
Max even-money escape in the band	~$18	21 Aug 2026	22d left	+$0.01/sh	+$145 cycle +$545	85% surv 82%
SS $41 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder

⚔ FIGHT CC options · full candidate scan (17 clear the floor), click to expand

Every eligible strike x expiry in the 3-45 DTE band (4 expiries scanned, 17 clear the income floor), each sized to the minimum contracts that clear it. Sorted by survival (safest first): the primary 🎯 is the safest; rows below trade safety for income.

Fortress delta: 0.900 (fallback) | Recovery@SS: +$51,878 (un-capped fortress gain if stock rallies to SS) | Do-nothing @ SS: $46,278

Strike	DTE	Expiry	Bid	Sell	Income/mo	Net/mo	Survival	POP (mid)	EV/mo	Cap Give-up @ CC-SS	%IC	Total P&L @ SS
$13	3d	31 Jul 2026	$0.12	142/200	$17,040	$17,214	90%	91%	+$12,127	-$19,342	175.8%	$26,794 (vs do-nothing $-19,484)
$13.50	10d	7 Aug 2026	$0.44	130/200	$17,043	$17,253	84%	88%	+$11,684	-$7,087	64.4%	$39,062 (vs do-nothing $-7,217)
$12.50	3d	31 Jul 2026	$0.23	74/200	$17,020	$17,398	80%	85%	+$10,274	-$12,966	117.9%	$33,239 (vs do-nothing $-13,040)
$13	10d	7 Aug 2026	$0.38	150/200	$17,100	$17,250	78%	83%	+$7,376	-$16,532	150.3%	$29,596 (vs do-nothing $-16,682)
$13	17d	14 Aug 2026	$0.57	170/200	$17,100	$17,190	74%	81%	+$6,334	-$15,506	141.0%	$30,602 (vs do-nothing $-15,676)
$13	24d	21 Aug 2026	$0.74	184/200	$17,020	$17,068	72%	79%	+$5,809	-$13,655	124.1%	$32,439 (vs do-nothing $-13,839)
$12.50	10d	7 Aug 2026	$0.54	106/200	$17,172	$17,454	70%	78%	+$6,604	-$15,287	139.0%	$30,886 (vs do-nothing $-15,393)
$12.50	17d	14 Aug 2026	$0.73	133/200	$17,134	$17,335	68%	77%	+$5,538	-$16,653	151.4%	$29,492 (vs do-nothing $-16,786)
$12.50	24d	21 Aug 2026	$0.86	159/200	$17,092	$17,216	66%	76%	+$4,521	-$17,842	162.2%	$28,277 (vs do-nothing $-18,001)
$12	3d	31 Jul 2026	$0.41	42/200	$17,220	$17,694	66%	78%	+$8,263	-$8,703	79.1%	$37,533 (vs do-nothing $-8,745)
$12	10d	7 Aug 2026	$0.75	76/200	$17,100	$17,472	61%	74%	+$5,776	-$13,164	119.7%	$33,038 (vs do-nothing $-13,240)
$12	17d	14 Aug 2026	$0.92	105/200	$17,047	$17,332	60%	73%	+$4,080	-$16,402	149.1%	$29,771 (vs do-nothing $-16,507)
$12	24d	21 Aug 2026	$1.11	123/200	$17,066	$17,297	60%	73%	+$4,561	-$16,877	153.4%	$29,278 (vs do-nothing $-17,000)

Show 4 more candidates (lower strikes: more income, lower survival)

Strike	DTE	Expiry	Bid	Sell	Income/mo	Net/mo	Survival	POP (mid)	EV/mo	Cap Give-up @ CC-SS	%IC	Total P&L @ SS
$11.50	24d	21 Aug 2026	$1.29	106/200	$17,092	$17,374	54%	71%	+$3,393	-$17,937	163.1%	$28,236 (vs do-nothing $-18,043)
$11.50	17d	14 Aug 2026	$1.06	91/200	$17,087	$17,414	53%	69%	+$2,350	-$17,455	158.7%	$28,732 (vs do-nothing $-17,546)
$11.50	10d	7 Aug 2026	$0.96	60/200	$17,280	$17,700	51%	70%	+$4,358	-$12,133	110.3%	$34,086 (vs do-nothing $-12,193)
$11.50	3d	31 Jul 2026	$0.65	27/200	$17,550	$18,069	48%	71%	+$5,905	-$6,297	57.2%	$39,955 (vs do-nothing $-6,324)

Income/mo = FIGHT leg gross, DTE-prorated. Net/mo = FIGHT + conservative CC gross minus hedge cost. POP (mid) = probability stock closes at or below (strike + mid premium) at expiry, per-strike chain IV when available. Survival = CC expires fully worthless. EV/mo = premium minus expected buyback, monthly, with realized vol = IV x 85% (variance risk premium 15%). Survival, POP and touch use vol x 1.00 (raw implied: the VRP haircut is applied to the premium edge but NOT to risk, because understating the edge costs opportunity while understating breach odds costs capital; the risk-side haircut arms only from the graded ledger). Cap give-up @ SS = recovery mortgaged on a V-bounce to SS, net of premium. Total P&L @ SS = absolute position P&L if the stock closes at SS; "vs do-nothing" = opportunity cost against holding all 200 contracts at the conservative CC.

fortress_fight.py v6.3 | 2026-07-28 11:53