MARA-LC40 @ $11.57 UNDERWATER $28.98 (71.5% below BE SS)
⚠ EARNINGS · SHORT EXPIRY ONLY
MARA reports 2026-08-07 (Fri), in 10 days. The recommended CC (3d) closes BEFORE earnings , that one is safe , but the richer/longer options below expire after it and would sell through the gap. Keep the tenor inside 2026-08-07.
200 contracts (20,000 sh) | BE SS: $40.55 | CC-SS: $14.68 | IV: HIGH | Accounts: Main:1299
LC: $40 exp 2027-01-15 (entry $0.557/sh)
Economics
| Max Loss | $11,000 | (ND $0.55 + SW $0) x 20000 |
| Normal income ref | $37,765/mo | 95% ann ROI on ML |
| Hedge (static, never rolled) | $0/mo | HP expiry = SP LEAPS; decay ≈ $0/mo (info only, already in marks) |
| Unrealized P&L | $-5,800 | fortress legs from IBKR |
INCOME GOALPOSTS & VELOCITY
50% INCOME FLOOR
$18,882/mo
HEDGE COVER
$0/mo (static)
NORMAL INCOME
$37,765/mo (ATM CC, chain)
IC VELOCITY
0.3 mo to earn back $11,000
ML VELOCITY
0.3 mo to earn back $11,000
NOT a deep drawdown: a CC at CC-SS $14.68 (probe: $14.5C 17d) still earns $9,529/mo (25% of normal). Sell the normal CC at/above CC-SS; a FIGHT CC below it is not needed here.
🏦 CAMPAIGN LEDGER , realized CC income since 2026-07-16; banked cash shrinks the hole (shown as an info-only banked floor, the recommended CC-SS stays the pure recovery strike; seeded from open positions, reconciled from IBKR executions nightly)
Banked since 2026-07-16
$0
Hole (after banked)
$5,800
was $5,800 · 0% earned back
| Open leg | Acct | Credit/sh | In flight | Opened |
|---|
| 34x $14.5C 31 Jul 2026 | U10001299 | $0.21 | $714 | 2026-07-24 |
TECHNICALS (cc_timing weekly gate + daily trigger)
WEEKLYNEUTRAL · %B 46 (live) · RSI 49 · MACD bearish, hist falling
DAILYFALLING (provisional) · RSI 42 · %B 25 · hist falling (nightly)
LEVELSUpper BB (CC ceiling) $15.73 (+36%) · daily UBB $13.71 · 1-wk expected move ±$2 (chain IV)
SETUPNo tilt: engine default. (advisory; floors and picks are chain-only)
⚠ Next earnings 2026-08-07: candidates whose expiry crosses it are flagged in the spectrum; EV is unreliable across earnings.
NOT a deep drawdown. A CC at/above CC-SS $14.68 keeps this fortress whole if assigned, so there is no need to FIGHT below it. Three income options to consider, richer → safer, all at/above CC-SS. Click a card for its if-challenged roll menu.
💰 Richer · sell 200 × $15.50 21 Aug 2026 (24d) · more income, lower survivalroll menu if challenged ▾
Survival (stays ≤ $15.50)
90%
Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 200 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 12 of 24); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic
Buyback gross: $2.26/sh now → $1.60 mid-life → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.22/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$1.38/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (200 ct) | POP / surv
of new CC |
|---|
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP.
Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened.
💰 Richer · sell 200 × $16 21 Aug 2026 (24d) · more income, lower survivalroll menu if challenged ▾
Survival (stays ≤ $16)
92%
Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 200 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 12 of 24); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic
Buyback gross: $2.38/sh now → $1.68 mid-life → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.20/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$1.48/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (200 ct) | POP / surv
of new CC |
|---|
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP.
Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened.
🎯 Recommended · sell 200 × $15 31 Jul 2026 (3d) · richest strike still ≥80% survivalroll menu if challenged ▾
Survival (stays ≤ $15)
100%
Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 200 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 1 of 3); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic
Buyback gross: $0.96/sh now → $0.68 mid-life → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.01/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.67/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (200 ct) | POP / surv
of new CC |
|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$15 | 7 Aug 2026 | 8d left | +$0.60/sh | +$11,967 cycle +$12,167 | 72% surv 53% |
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$16 | 7 Aug 2026 | 8d left | +$0.02/sh | +$420 cycle +$620 | 81% surv 73% |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$18 | 21 Aug 2026 | 22d left | +$0.03/sh | +$681 cycle +$881 | 84% surv 81% |
| SS $41 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder |
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP.
Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened.
⚔ FIGHT CC options · full candidate scan (15 clear the floor), click to expand
Every eligible strike x expiry in the 3-45 DTE band (4 expiries scanned, 15 clear the income floor), each sized to the minimum contracts that clear it. Sorted by survival (safest first): the primary 🎯 is the safest; rows below trade safety for income.
Fortress delta: 0.082 (IBKR) | Recovery@SS: +$5,100 (un-capped fortress gain if stock rallies to SS) | Do-nothing @ SS: $-500
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|
| $13 | 3d | 31 Jul 2026 | $0.12 | 158/200 | $18,960 | $19,086 | 91% | 93% | +$14,967 | -$24,642 | 224.0% | $-25,300 (vs do-nothing $-24,800) |
| $12.50 | 3d | 31 Jul 2026 | $0.23 | 83/200 | $19,090 | $19,441 | 82% | 87% | +$12,981 | -$16,182 | 147.1% | $-16,765 (vs do-nothing $-16,265) |
| $13 | 10d | 7 Aug 2026 | $0.38 | 166/200 | $18,924 | $19,026 | 79% | 84% | +$9,451 | -$21,574 | 196.1% | $-22,240 (vs do-nothing $-21,740) |
| $13 | 17d | 14 Aug 2026 | $0.57 | 188/200 | $18,911 | $18,947 | 74% | 81% | +$7,297 | -$20,861 | 189.6% | $-21,549 (vs do-nothing $-21,049) |
| $12.50 | 10d | 7 Aug 2026 | $0.54 | 117/200 | $18,954 | $19,203 | 71% | 79% | +$8,386 | -$19,184 | 174.4% | $-19,801 (vs do-nothing $-19,301) |
| $12.50 | 17d | 14 Aug 2026 | $0.73 | 147/200 | $18,937 | $19,096 | 68% | 77% | +$6,410 | -$21,310 | 193.7% | $-21,957 (vs do-nothing $-21,457) |
| $12 | 3d | 31 Jul 2026 | $0.41 | 47/200 | $19,270 | $19,729 | 67% | 80% | +$10,690 | -$10,667 | 97.0% | $-11,214 (vs do-nothing $-10,714) |
| $12.50 | 24d | 21 Aug 2026 | $0.86 | 176/200 | $18,920 | $18,992 | 67% | 77% | +$5,269 | -$23,226 | 211.1% | $-23,902 (vs do-nothing $-23,402) |
| $12 | 10d | 7 Aug 2026 | $0.75 | 84/200 | $18,900 | $19,248 | 62% | 75% | +$7,330 | -$16,209 | 147.4% | $-16,793 (vs do-nothing $-16,293) |
| $12 | 17d | 14 Aug 2026 | $0.92 | 117/200 | $18,995 | $19,244 | 61% | 74% | +$5,453 | -$20,588 | 187.2% | $-21,205 (vs do-nothing $-20,705) |
| $12 | 24d | 21 Aug 2026 | $1.11 | 137/200 | $19,009 | $19,198 | 61% | 74% | +$5,325 | -$21,504 | 195.5% | $-22,141 (vs do-nothing $-21,641) |
| $11.50 | 24d | 21 Aug 2026 | $1.29 | 118/200 | $19,028 | $19,274 | 54% | 71% | +$4,023 | -$22,298 | 202.7% | $-22,916 (vs do-nothing $-22,416) |
| $11.50 | 17d | 14 Aug 2026 | $1.14 | 94/200 | $18,911 | $19,229 | 53% | 71% | +$4,400 | -$19,173 | 174.3% | $-19,767 (vs do-nothing $-19,267) |
Show 2 more candidates (lower strikes: more income, lower survival)
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|
| $11.50 | 10d | 7 Aug 2026 | $0.96 | 66/200 | $19,008 | $19,410 | 52% | 71% | +$5,672 | -$14,650 | 133.2% | $-15,216 (vs do-nothing $-14,716) |
| $11.50 | 3d | 31 Jul 2026 | $0.65 | 30/200 | $19,500 | $20,010 | 49% | 73% | +$7,929 | -$7,589 | 69.0% | $-8,119 (vs do-nothing $-7,619) |
Income/mo = FIGHT leg gross, DTE-prorated. Net/mo = FIGHT + conservative CC gross minus hedge cost. POP (mid) = probability stock closes at or below (strike + mid premium) at expiry, per-strike chain IV when available. Survival = CC expires fully worthless. EV/mo = premium minus expected buyback, monthly, with realized vol = IV x 85% (variance risk premium 15%). Survival, POP and touch use vol x 1.00 (raw implied: the VRP haircut is applied to the premium edge but NOT to risk, because understating the edge costs opportunity while understating breach odds costs capital; the risk-side haircut arms only from the graded ledger). Cap give-up @ SS = recovery mortgaged on a V-bounce to SS, net of premium. Total P&L @ SS = absolute position P&L if the stock closes at SS; "vs do-nothing" = opportunity cost against holding all 200 contracts at the conservative CC.