200 contracts (20,000 sh) | BE SS: $40.55 | CC-SS: $14.18 | IV: HIGH | Accounts: Main:1299
| Max Loss | $11,000 | (ND $0.55 + SW $0) x 20000 |
| Normal income ref | $28,588/mo | 95% ann ROI on ML |
| Hedge (static, never rolled) | $0/mo | HP expiry = SP LEAPS; decay ≈ $0/mo (info only, already in marks) |
| Unrealized P&L | $-5,800 | fortress legs from IBKR |
| Open leg | Acct | Credit/sh | In flight | Opened |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 34x $14.5C 31 Jul 2026 | U10001299 | $0.21 | $714 | 2026-07-24 |
Each Friday gets its own recommended pick and full income ladder (safest strike per income rung, sized across your 200 contracts). The master ranks the two by E[net]/mo to pick one grand pick; both are shown here so you can choose the tenor that fits your roll cadence.
| Track | Expiry | Sell | Survival | Income/mo | E[net]/mo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| THIS FRIDAY 🏆 | 31 Jul 2026 · 3d | 103 × $12 | 82% | $14,420 | $10,374 |
| NEXT FRIDAY | 7 Aug 2026 · 10d | 191 × $12.50 | 79% | $14,325 | $-12,953 |
| Rung | Sell | Expiry | DTE | OTM | Survival | Touch odds | FIGHT edge | Per cycle | Income/mo | Δ vs pick | Cap give-up | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| ▸ | 🛡 safe yield | 200 × $14 | 7 Aug | 10d | 27.7% | 92%hist 100% | 17%hist 5% | +26pp | $2,000 | $6,000 | -$8,420 | $1,669 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 200 × $14 27.7% OTM over spot $10.96 7 Aug 2026 (10d, $0.12 mid) = $2,000 credit for the 10d cycle → $6,000/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $14) 92% Breach risk 8% POP (stays ≤ $14.12) 92% EV / mo +$2,640 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +26pp 96% whole by 9mo vs 70% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~0.2/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $5,165/mo median; plan ~$3,512/mo after 68% keep · $5,352 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~1.0 mo [0.5-1.7], measured ONLY among the 96% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 11% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$25,262 Free roll-up none Safest escape (by 21 Aug 2026) $14 @ 68% POP 56% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 200 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 5 of 10); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $1.93/sh now → $1.36 mid-life (likely $1.04–$1.84) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.10/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$1.26/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 323 simulated challenges: the $14 strike is typically first touched on day 7 of 10, at $14 (overshoots $0.45). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $14 is $0 below CC-SS $14.18: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.03/sh (~25% of the $0.10 collected) or spot ≥ $14.12 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $14)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $13.52 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.07 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $14.18, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-5,800 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$4,635 − CC assignment net of premium (200 × $14): -$1,669 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-2,834 (+$2,966 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-965 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-1,869, the opportunity cost of earning $6,000/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $15.71 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$32,200, position total $-31,167 ($-25,367 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 33% normal | 158 × $12.50 | 31 Jul | 3d | 14.0% | 90%hist 99% | 21%hist 13% | +33pp | $948 | $9,480 | -$4,940 | $25,650 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 158 × $12.50 14.0% OTM over spot $10.96 31 Jul 2026 (3d, $0.07 mid) = $948 credit for the 3d cycle → $9,480/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $12.50) 90% Breach risk 10% POP (stays ≤ $12.57) 91% EV / mo +$3,391 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +33pp 99% whole by 9mo vs 66% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~0.5/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $8,023/mo median; plan ~$5,456/mo after 68% keep · $5,961 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~0.7 mo [0.4-1.2], measured ONLY among the 99% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 12% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$5,899 Free roll-up +$1/wk Safest escape (by 21 Aug 2026) $16 @ 84% POP 82% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 158 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 1 of 3); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $0.61/sh now → $0.43 mid-life (likely $0.43–$0.82) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.06/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.37/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 355 simulated challenges: the $12 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 3, at $13 (overshoots $0.44). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $12.50 is $2 below CC-SS $14.18: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.01/sh (~25% of the $0.06 collected) or spot ≥ $12.57 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $12)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $13.52 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.07 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $14.18, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-5,800 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$4,635 − CC assignment net of premium (158 × $12.50): -$25,650 + Conservative CC premium (42 × $18): +$42 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-26,774 ($-20,974 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-965 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-25,808, the opportunity cost of earning $9,480/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $15.71 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$49,770, position total $-48,695 ($-42,895 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🎯 50% normal | 103 × $12 | 31 Jul | 3d | 9.4% | 82%hist 99% | 38%hist 18% | +32pp | $1,442 | $14,420 | — | $21,047 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 103 × $12 9.4% OTM over spot $10.96 31 Jul 2026 (3d, $0.15 mid) = $1,442 credit for the 3d cycle → $14,420/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $12) 82% Breach risk 18% POP (stays ≤ $12.14) 84% EV / mo +$5,340 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +32pp 100% whole by 9mo vs 68% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~0.5/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $12,836/mo median; plan ~$8,728/mo after 68% keep · $6,994 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~0.5 mo [0.3-0.8], measured ONLY among the 100% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 24% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$2,766 Free roll-up +$1/wk Safest escape (by 21 Aug 2026) $16 @ 87% POP 86% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 103 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 1 of 3); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $0.58/sh now → $0.41 mid-life (likely $0.41–$0.78) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.14/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.27/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 705 simulated challenges: the $12 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 3, at $12 (overshoots $0.41). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $12 is $2 below CC-SS $14.18: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.04/sh (~25% of the $0.14 collected) or spot ≥ $12.14 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $12)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $13.52 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.07 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $14.18, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-5,800 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$4,635 − CC assignment net of premium (103 × $12): -$21,047 + Conservative CC premium (97 × $18): +$97 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-22,116 ($-16,316 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-965 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-21,150, the opportunity cost of earning $14,420/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $15.71 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$36,771, position total $-35,641 ($-29,841 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 100% normal | 115 × $11.50 | 31 Jul | 3d | 4.9% | 69%hist 80% | 64%hist 51% | +32pp | $2,875 | $28,750 | +$14,330 | $27,985 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 115 × $11.50 4.9% OTM over spot $10.96 31 Jul 2026 (3d, $0.26 mid) = $2,875 credit for the 3d cycle → $28,750/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $11.50) 69% Breach risk 31% POP (stays ≤ $11.76) 76% EV / mo +$6,100 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +32pp 100% whole by 9mo vs 68% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~0.5/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $27,682/mo median; plan ~$18,824/mo after 68% keep · $8,076 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~0.3 mo [0.2-0.4], measured ONLY among the 100% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 44% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$1,545 Free roll-up +$1/wk Safest escape (by 21 Aug 2026) $16 @ 90% POP 89% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 115 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 1 of 3); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $0.54/sh now → $0.38 mid-life (likely $0.48–$0.81) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.25/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.13/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 1,316 simulated challenges: the $12 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 3, at $12 (overshoots $0.44). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $11.50 is $3 below CC-SS $14.18: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.06/sh (~25% of the $0.25 collected) or spot ≥ $11.76 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $12)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $13.52 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.07 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $14.18, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-5,800 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$4,635 − CC assignment net of premium (115 × $11.50): -$27,985 + Conservative CC premium (85 × $18): +$85 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-29,065 ($-23,265 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-965 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-28,100, the opportunity cost of earning $28,750/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $15.71 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$45,540, position total $-44,422 ($-38,622 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Rung | Sell | Expiry | DTE | OTM | Survival | Touch odds | FIGHT edge | Per cycle | Income/mo | Δ vs pick | Cap give-up | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▸ | 🛡 safe yield | 200 × $14 | 7 Aug | 10d | 27.7% | 92%hist 100% | 17%hist 5% | +26pp | $2,000 | $6,000 | -$8,325 | $1,669 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 200 × $14 27.7% OTM over spot $10.96 7 Aug 2026 (10d, $0.12 mid) = $2,000 credit for the 10d cycle → $6,000/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $14) 92% Breach risk 8% POP (stays ≤ $14.12) 92% EV / mo +$2,640 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +26pp 96% whole by 9mo vs 70% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~0.2/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $5,165/mo median; plan ~$3,512/mo after 68% keep · $5,352 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~1.0 mo [0.5-1.7], measured ONLY among the 96% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 11% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$25,262 Free roll-up none Safest escape (by 21 Aug 2026) $14 @ 68% POP 56% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 200 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 5 of 10); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $1.93/sh now → $1.36 mid-life (likely $1.04–$1.84) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.10/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$1.26/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 323 simulated challenges: the $14 strike is typically first touched on day 7 of 10, at $14 (overshoots $0.45). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $14 is $0 below CC-SS $14.18: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.03/sh (~25% of the $0.10 collected) or spot ≥ $14.12 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $14)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $13.52 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.07 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $14.18, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-5,800 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$4,635 − CC assignment net of premium (200 × $14): -$1,669 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-2,834 (+$2,966 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-965 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-1,869, the opportunity cost of earning $6,000/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $15.71 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$32,200, position total $-31,167 ($-25,367 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 33% normal ← lean | 158 × $13 | 7 Aug | 10d | 18.6% | 84%hist 99% | 33%hist 18% | +35pp | $3,160 | $9,480 | -$4,845 | $15,538 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 158 × $13 18.6% OTM over spot $10.96 7 Aug 2026 (10d, $0.22 mid) = $3,160 credit for the 10d cycle → $9,480/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $13) 84% Breach risk 16% POP (stays ≤ $13.21) 87% EV / mo +$3,224 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +35pp 100% whole by 9mo vs 65% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~0.2/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $9,733/mo median; plan ~$6,618/mo after 68% keep · $6,749 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~0.7 mo [0.4-1.0], measured ONLY among the 100% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 23% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$16,091 Free roll-up none Safest escape (by 21 Aug 2026) $13 @ 68% POP 56% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 158 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 5 of 10); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $1.72/sh now → $1.22 mid-life (likely $1.20–$1.85) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.20/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$1.02/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 678 simulated challenges: the $13 strike is typically first touched on day 6 of 10, at $13 (overshoots $0.44). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $13 is $1 below CC-SS $14.18: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.05/sh (~25% of the $0.20 collected) or spot ≥ $13.21 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $13)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $13.52 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.07 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $14.18, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-5,800 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$4,635 − CC assignment net of premium (158 × $13): -$15,538 + Conservative CC premium (42 × $18): +$42 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-16,662 ($-10,862 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-965 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-15,696, the opportunity cost of earning $9,480/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $15.71 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$39,658, position total $-38,583 ($-32,783 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🎯 50% normal | 191 × $12.50 | 7 Aug | 10d | 14.0% | 79%hist 96% | 44%hist 28% | +36pp | $4,775 | $14,325 | — | $27,379 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 191 × $12.50 14.0% OTM over spot $10.96 7 Aug 2026 (10d, $0.29 mid) = $4,775 credit for the 10d cycle → $14,325/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $12.50) 79% Breach risk 21% POP (stays ≤ $12.79) 83% EV / mo +$2,817 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +36pp 100% whole by 9mo vs 64% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~0.2/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $14,536/mo median; plan ~$9,884/mo after 68% keep · $8,250 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~0.5 mo [0.3-0.7], measured ONLY among the 100% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 34% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$17,167 Free roll-up none Safest escape (by 21 Aug 2026) $13 @ 71% POP 61% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 191 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 5 of 10); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $1.62/sh now → $1.15 mid-life (likely $1.18–$1.82) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.25/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.90/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 1,021 simulated challenges: the $12 strike is typically first touched on day 5 of 10, at $13 (overshoots $0.41). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $12.50 is $2 below CC-SS $14.18: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.06/sh (~25% of the $0.25 collected) or spot ≥ $12.79 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $12)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $13.52 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.07 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $14.18, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-5,800 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$4,635 − CC assignment net of premium (191 × $12.50): -$27,379 + Conservative CC premium (9 × $18): +$9 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-28,535 ($-22,735 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-965 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-27,570, the opportunity cost of earning $14,325/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $15.71 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$56,536, position total $-55,494 ($-49,694 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 100% normal | 128 × $11 | 7 Aug | 10d | 0.3% | 54%hist 79% | 98%hist 90% | +32pp | $9,600 | $28,800 | +$14,475 | $31,148 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 128 × $11 0.3% OTM over spot $10.96 7 Aug 2026 (10d, $1.03 mid) = $9,600 credit for the 10d cycle → $28,800/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $11) 54% Breach risk 46% POP (stays ≤ $12.03) 73% EV / mo +$3,931 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +32pp 100% whole by 9mo vs 68% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~0.3/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $171,216/mo median; plan ~$116,427/mo after 68% keep · $10,392 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~0.1 mo [0.0-0.2], measured ONLY among the 100% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 81% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$2,572 Free roll-up none Safest escape (by 21 Aug 2026) $14 @ 88% POP 87% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 128 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 5 of 10); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $1.34/sh now → $0.95 mid-life (likely $1.35–$1.91) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.75/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.20/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 2,429 simulated challenges: the $11 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 10, at $11 (overshoots $0.45). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $11 is $3 below CC-SS $14.18: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.19/sh (~25% of the $0.75 collected) or spot ≥ $12.03 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $11)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $13.52 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.07 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $14.18, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-5,800 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$4,635 − CC assignment net of premium (128 × $11): -$31,148 + Conservative CC premium (72 × $18): +$72 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-32,242 ($-26,442 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-965 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-31,276, the opportunity cost of earning $28,800/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $15.71 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$50,688, position total $-49,583 ($-43,783 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Every eligible strike x expiry in the 3-45 DTE band (4 expiries scanned, 13 clear the income floor), each sized to the minimum contracts that clear it. Sorted by survival (safest first): the primary 🎯 is the safest; rows below trade safety for income.
Fortress delta: 0.072 (IBKR) | Recovery@SS: +$4,635 (un-capped fortress gain if stock rallies to SS) | Do-nothing @ SS: $-965
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $12 | 3d | 31 Jul 2026 | $0.14 | 103/200 | $14,420 | $14,711 | 82% | 84% | +$5,340 | -$21,047 | 191.3% | $-22,116 (vs do-nothing $-21,150) |
| $12.50 | 10d | 7 Aug 2026 | $0.25 | 191/200 | $14,325 | $14,352 | 79% | 83% | +$2,817 | -$27,379 | 248.9% | $-28,535 (vs do-nothing $-27,570) |
| $12 | 10d | 7 Aug 2026 | $0.40 | 120/200 | $14,400 | $14,640 | 72% | 78% | +$3,534 | -$21,401 | 194.6% | $-22,487 (vs do-nothing $-21,521) |
| $12 | 17d | 14 Aug 2026 | $0.52 | 156/200 | $14,315 | $14,447 | 70% | 79% | +$1,835 | -$25,950 | 235.9% | $-27,071 (vs do-nothing $-26,106) |
| $11.50 | 3d | 31 Jul 2026 | $0.25 | 58/200 | $14,500 | $14,926 | 69% | 76% | +$3,077 | -$14,114 | 128.3% | $-15,137 (vs do-nothing $-14,172) |
| $12 | 24d | 21 Aug 2026 | $0.70 | 164/200 | $14,350 | $14,458 | 68% | 75% | +$1,317 | -$24,328 | 221.2% | $-25,458 (vs do-nothing $-24,492) |
| $11.50 | 10d | 7 Aug 2026 | $0.47 | 102/200 | $14,382 | $14,676 | 64% | 76% | +$743 | -$22,577 | 205.2% | $-23,645 (vs do-nothing $-22,679) |
| $11.50 | 17d | 14 Aug 2026 | $0.67 | 121/200 | $14,306 | $14,543 | 63% | 75% | +$1,206 | -$24,363 | 221.5% | $-25,449 (vs do-nothing $-24,484) |
| $11.50 | 24d | 21 Aug 2026 | $0.84 | 137/200 | $14,385 | $14,574 | 62% | 74% | +$580 | -$25,255 | 229.6% | $-26,358 (vs do-nothing $-25,392) |
| $11 | 24d | 21 Aug 2026 | $1.06 | 108/200 | $14,310 | $14,586 | 56% | 70% | +$656 | -$22,933 | 208.5% | $-24,007 (vs do-nothing $-23,041) |
| $11 | 17d | 14 Aug 2026 | $0.81 | 100/200 | $14,294 | $14,594 | 55% | 72% | $-144 | -$23,734 | 215.8% | $-24,800 (vs do-nothing $-23,834) |
| $11 | 10d | 7 Aug 2026 | $0.75 | 64/200 | $14,400 | $14,808 | 54% | 73% | +$1,965 | -$15,574 | 141.6% | $-16,603 (vs do-nothing $-15,638) |
| $11 | 3d | 31 Jul 2026 | $0.43 | 34/200 | $14,620 | $15,118 | 53% | 68% | +$1,496 | -$9,362 | 85.1% | $-10,361 (vs do-nothing $-9,396) |
Income/mo = FIGHT leg gross, DTE-prorated. Net/mo = FIGHT + conservative CC gross minus hedge cost. POP (mid) = probability stock closes at or below (strike + mid premium) at expiry, per-strike chain IV when available. Survival = CC expires fully worthless. EV/mo = premium minus expected buyback, monthly, with realized vol = IV x 85% (variance risk premium 15%). Survival, POP and touch use vol x 1.00 (raw implied: the VRP haircut is applied to the premium edge but NOT to risk, because understating the edge costs opportunity while understating breach odds costs capital; the risk-side haircut arms only from the graded ledger). Cap give-up @ SS = recovery mortgaged on a V-bounce to SS, net of premium. Total P&L @ SS = absolute position P&L if the stock closes at SS; "vs do-nothing" = opportunity cost against holding all 200 contracts at the conservative CC.