200 contracts (20,000 sh) | BE SS: $40.55 | CC-SS: $14.80 | IV: HIGH | Accounts: Main:1299
| Max Loss | $11,000 | (ND $0.55 + SW $0) x 20000 |
| Normal income ref | $30,750/mo | 95% ann ROI on ML |
| Hedge (static, never rolled) | $0/mo | HP expiry = SP LEAPS; decay ≈ $0/mo (info only, already in marks) |
| Unrealized P&L | $-6,400 | fortress legs from IBKR |
| Open leg | Acct | Credit/sh | In flight | Opened |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 34x $14.5C 31 Jul 2026 | U10001299 | $0.21 | $714 | 2026-07-24 |
Each Friday gets its own recommended pick and full income ladder (safest strike per income rung, sized across your 200 contracts). The master ranks the two by E[net]/mo to pick one grand pick; both are shown here so you can choose the tenor that fits your roll cadence.
| Track | Expiry | Sell | Survival | Income/mo | E[net]/mo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| THIS FRIDAY 🏆 | 31 Jul 2026 · 2d | 129 × $12.50 | 86% | $15,480 | $10,080 |
| NEXT FRIDAY | 7 Aug 2026 · 9d | 149 × $12.50 | 74% | $15,397 | $-1,906 |
| Rung | Sell | Expiry | DTE | OTM | Survival | Touch odds | FIGHT edge | Per cycle | Income/mo | Δ vs pick | Cap give-up | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| ▸ | 🛡 safe yield | 200 × $15 | 7 Aug | 9d | 31.8% | 95%hist 100% | 10%hist 5% | -12pp | $1,000 | $3,333 | -$12,147 | $0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 200 × $15 31.8% OTM over spot $11.38 7 Aug 2026 (9d, $0.07 mid) = $1,000 credit for the 9d cycle → $3,333/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $15) 95% Breach risk 5% POP (stays ≤ $15.06) 95% EV / mo +$1,680 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE -12pp 83% whole by 9mo vs 94% doing nothing · roll costs eat the credits at this rung FIRE DRILLS ~0.2/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $2,673/mo median; plan ~$1,818/mo after 68% keep · $4,442 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~1.2 mo [0.6-2.5], measured ONLY among the 83% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 6% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$17,448 Free roll-up +$1/wk Safest escape (by 21 Aug 2026) $17 @ 77% POP 70% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 200 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 9); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $1.30/sh now → $0.92 mid-life (likely $0.62–$1.26) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.05/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.87/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 169 simulated challenges: the $15 strike is typically first touched on day 7 of 9, at $16 (overshoots $0.56). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ✓ $15 is at/above CC-SS $14.80: assignment is break-even or better.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.01/sh (~25% of the $0.05 collected) or spot ≥ $15.06 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $15)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $13.26 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.07 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $14.80, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-6,400 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$5,060 − CC assignment net of premium (200 × $15): -$0 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-1,340 (+$5,060 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-140 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-1,200, the opportunity cost of earning $3,333/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $15.71 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$13,200, position total $-13,199 ($-6,799 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 33% normal | 85 × $12.50 | 31 Jul | 2d | 9.8% | 86%hist 99% | 29%hist 13% | +10pp | $680 | $10,200 | -$5,280 | $18,903 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 85 × $12.50 9.8% OTM over spot $11.38 31 Jul 2026 (2d, $0.10 mid) = $680 credit for the 2d cycle → $10,200/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $12.50) 86% Breach risk 14% POP (stays ≤ $12.60) 88% EV / mo +$3,745 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +10pp 100% whole by 9mo vs 90% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~0.8/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $10,230/mo median; plan ~$6,956/mo after 68% keep · $8,311 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~0.7 mo [0.4-1.2], measured ONLY among the 100% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 16% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$2,467 Free roll-up +$1/wk Safest escape (by 21 Aug 2026) $15 @ 83% POP 81% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 85 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 1 of 2); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $0.52/sh now → $0.37 mid-life (likely $0.41–$0.74) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.08/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.29/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 484 simulated challenges: the $12 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 2, at $13 (overshoots $0.44). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $12.50 is $2 below CC-SS $14.80: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.02/sh (~25% of the $0.08 collected) or spot ≥ $12.60 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $12)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $13.26 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.07 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $14.80, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-6,400 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$5,060 − CC assignment net of premium (85 × $12.50): -$18,903 + Conservative CC premium (115 × $16): +$690 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-19,553 ($-13,153 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-140 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-19,413, the opportunity cost of earning $10,200/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $15.71 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$26,605, position total $-25,914 ($-19,514 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🎯 50% normal | 129 × $12.50 | 31 Jul | 2d | 9.8% | 86%hist 99% | 29%hist 13% | +7pp | $1,032 | $15,480 | — | $28,688 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 129 × $12.50 9.8% OTM over spot $11.38 31 Jul 2026 (2d, $0.10 mid) = $1,032 credit for the 2d cycle → $15,480/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $12.50) 86% Breach risk 14% POP (stays ≤ $12.60) 88% EV / mo +$5,683 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +7pp 100% whole by 9mo vs 92% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~0.6/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $14,570/mo median; plan ~$9,907/mo after 68% keep · $8,597 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~0.5 mo [0.3-0.8], measured ONLY among the 100% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 18% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$3,744 Free roll-up +$1/wk Safest escape (by 21 Aug 2026) $15 @ 83% POP 81% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 129 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 1 of 2); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $0.52/sh now → $0.37 mid-life (likely $0.40–$0.78) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.08/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.29/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 525 simulated challenges: the $12 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 2, at $13 (overshoots $0.43). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $12.50 is $2 below CC-SS $14.80: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.02/sh (~25% of the $0.08 collected) or spot ≥ $12.60 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $12)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $13.26 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.07 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $14.80, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-6,400 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$5,060 − CC assignment net of premium (129 × $12.50): -$28,688 + Conservative CC premium (71 × $16): +$426 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-29,602 ($-23,202 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-140 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-29,462, the opportunity cost of earning $15,480/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $15.71 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$40,377, position total $-39,950 ($-33,550 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 100% normal | 121 × $12 | 31 Jul | 2d | 5.4% | 73%hist 96% | 55%hist 43% | +7pp | $2,057 | $30,855 | +$15,375 | $31,870 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 121 × $12 5.4% OTM over spot $11.38 31 Jul 2026 (2d, $0.19 mid) = $2,057 credit for the 2d cycle → $30,855/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $12) 73% Breach risk 27% POP (stays ≤ $12.19) 79% EV / mo +$6,937 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +7pp 100% whole by 9mo vs 92% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~0.6/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $28,572/mo median; plan ~$19,429/mo after 68% keep · $9,102 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~0.3 mo [0.2-0.4], measured ONLY among the 100% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 34% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$2,170 Free roll-up +$1/wk Safest escape (by 21 Aug 2026) $16 @ 89% POP 88% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 121 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 1 of 2); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $0.49/sh now → $0.35 mid-life (likely $0.41–$0.81) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.17/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.18/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 1,025 simulated challenges: the $12 strike is typically first touched on day 1 of 2, at $12 (overshoots $0.46). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $12 is $3 below CC-SS $14.80: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.04/sh (~25% of the $0.17 collected) or spot ≥ $12.19 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $12)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $13.26 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.07 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $14.80, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-6,400 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$5,060 − CC assignment net of premium (121 × $12): -$31,870 + Conservative CC premium (79 × $16): +$474 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-32,736 ($-26,336 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-140 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-32,596, the opportunity cost of earning $30,855/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $15.71 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$42,834, position total $-42,359 ($-35,959 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Rung | Sell | Expiry | DTE | OTM | Survival | Touch odds | FIGHT edge | Per cycle | Income/mo | Δ vs pick | Cap give-up | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| ▸ | 🛡 safe yield | 200 × $15 | 7 Aug | 9d | 31.8% | 95%hist 100% | 10%hist 5% | -12pp | $1,000 | $3,333 | -$12,063 | $0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 200 × $15 31.8% OTM over spot $11.38 7 Aug 2026 (9d, $0.07 mid) = $1,000 credit for the 9d cycle → $3,333/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $15) 95% Breach risk 5% POP (stays ≤ $15.06) 95% EV / mo +$1,680 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE -12pp 83% whole by 9mo vs 94% doing nothing · roll costs eat the credits at this rung FIRE DRILLS ~0.2/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $2,673/mo median; plan ~$1,818/mo after 68% keep · $4,442 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~1.2 mo [0.6-2.5], measured ONLY among the 83% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 6% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$17,448 Free roll-up +$1/wk Safest escape (by 21 Aug 2026) $17 @ 77% POP 70% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 200 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 9); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $1.30/sh now → $0.92 mid-life (likely $0.62–$1.26) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.05/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.87/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 169 simulated challenges: the $15 strike is typically first touched on day 7 of 9, at $16 (overshoots $0.56). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ✓ $15 is at/above CC-SS $14.80: assignment is break-even or better.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.01/sh (~25% of the $0.05 collected) or spot ≥ $15.06 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $15)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $13.26 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.07 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $14.80, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-6,400 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$5,060 − CC assignment net of premium (200 × $15): -$0 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-1,340 (+$5,060 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-140 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-1,200, the opportunity cost of earning $3,333/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $15.71 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$13,200, position total $-13,199 ($-6,799 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 33% normal ← lean | 191 × $13.50 | 7 Aug | 9d | 18.6% | 86%hist 99% | 30%hist 13% | +5pp | $3,056 | $10,187 | -$5,210 | $21,848 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 191 × $13.50 18.6% OTM over spot $11.38 7 Aug 2026 (9d, $0.18 mid) = $3,056 credit for the 9d cycle → $10,187/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $13.50) 86% Breach risk 14% POP (stays ≤ $13.69) 88% EV / mo +$3,173 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +5pp 100% whole by 9mo vs 95% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~0.2/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $9,824/mo median; plan ~$6,680/mo after 68% keep · $6,537 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~0.7 mo [0.4-1.2], measured ONLY among the 100% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 20% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$11,939 Free roll-up +$0/wk Safest escape (by 21 Aug 2026) $15 @ 78% POP 72% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 191 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 9); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $1.11/sh now → $0.79 mid-life (likely $0.72–$1.16) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.16/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.63/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 615 simulated challenges: the $14 strike is typically first touched on day 6 of 9, at $14 (overshoots $0.43). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $13.50 is $1 below CC-SS $14.80: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.04/sh (~25% of the $0.16 collected) or spot ≥ $13.69 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $14)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $13.26 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.07 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $14.80, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-6,400 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$5,060 − CC assignment net of premium (191 × $13.50): -$21,848 + Conservative CC premium (9 × $16): +$54 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-23,134 ($-16,734 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-140 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-22,994, the opportunity cost of earning $10,187/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $15.71 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$39,155, position total $-39,100 ($-32,700 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🎯 50% normal | 149 × $12.50 | 7 Aug | 9d | 9.8% | 74%hist 96% | 55%hist 43% | +8pp | $4,619 | $15,397 | — | $29,709 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 149 × $12.50 9.8% OTM over spot $11.38 7 Aug 2026 (9d, $0.37 mid) = $4,619 credit for the 9d cycle → $15,397/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $12.50) 74% Breach risk 26% POP (stays ≤ $12.87) 79% EV / mo +$2,386 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +8pp 100% whole by 9mo vs 92% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~0.3/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $23,957/mo median; plan ~$16,291/mo after 68% keep · $9,312 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~0.4 mo [0.1-0.6], measured ONLY among the 100% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 42% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$5,797 Free roll-up +$0/wk Safest escape (by 21 Aug 2026) $14 @ 79% POP 74% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 149 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 9); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $0.99/sh now → $0.70 mid-life (likely $0.80–$1.17) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.31/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.39/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 1,268 simulated challenges: the $12 strike is typically first touched on day 4 of 9, at $13 (overshoots $0.42). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $12.50 is $2 below CC-SS $14.80: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.08/sh (~25% of the $0.31 collected) or spot ≥ $12.87 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $12)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $13.26 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.07 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $14.80, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-6,400 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$5,060 − CC assignment net of premium (149 × $12.50): -$29,709 + Conservative CC premium (51 × $16): +$306 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-30,743 ($-24,343 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-140 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-30,603, the opportunity cost of earning $15,397/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $15.71 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$43,210, position total $-42,903 ($-36,503 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 100% normal | 157 × $11.50 | 7 Aug | 9d | 1.0% | 56%hist 79% | 95%hist 90% | +3pp | $9,263 | $30,877 | +$15,480 | $42,608 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 157 × $11.50 1.0% OTM over spot $11.38 7 Aug 2026 (9d, $0.70 mid) = $9,263 credit for the 9d cycle → $30,877/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $11.50) 56% Breach risk 44% POP (stays ≤ $12.20) 69% EV / mo +$260 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +3pp 100% whole by 9mo vs 97% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~0.3/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $143,299/mo median; plan ~$97,443/mo after 68% keep · $10,408 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~0.1 mo [0.0-0.3], measured ONLY among the 100% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 75% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$433 Free roll-up +$0/wk Safest escape (by 21 Aug 2026) $15 @ 91% POP 91% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 157 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 9); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $0.87/sh now → $0.62 mid-life (likely $0.87–$1.22) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.59/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.03/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 2,257 simulated challenges: the $12 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 9, at $12 (overshoots $0.44). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $11.50 is $3 below CC-SS $14.80: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.15/sh (~25% of the $0.59 collected) or spot ≥ $12.20 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $12)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $13.26 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.07 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $14.80, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-6,400 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$5,060 − CC assignment net of premium (157 × $11.50): -$42,608 + Conservative CC premium (43 × $16): +$258 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-43,690 ($-37,290 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-140 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-43,550, the opportunity cost of earning $30,877/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $15.71 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$56,834, position total $-56,575 ($-50,175 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Every eligible strike x expiry in the 2-45 DTE band (4 expiries scanned, 12 clear the income floor), each sized to the minimum contracts that clear it. Sorted by survival (safest first): the primary 🎯 is the safest; rows below trade safety for income.
Fortress delta: 0.074 (IBKR) | Recovery@SS: +$5,060 (un-capped fortress gain if stock rallies to SS) | Do-nothing @ SS: $-140
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $12.50 | 2d | 31 Jul 2026 | $0.08 | 129/200 | $15,480 | $16,279 | 86% | 88% | +$5,683 | -$28,688 | 260.8% | $-29,602 (vs do-nothing $-29,462) |
| $12.50 | 9d | 7 Aug 2026 | $0.31 | 149/200 | $15,397 | $15,970 | 74% | 79% | +$2,386 | -$29,709 | 270.1% | $-30,743 (vs do-nothing $-30,603) |
| $12 | 2d | 31 Jul 2026 | $0.17 | 61/200 | $15,555 | $17,119 | 73% | 79% | +$3,497 | -$16,067 | 146.1% | $-16,573 (vs do-nothing $-16,433) |
| $12.50 | 16d | 14 Aug 2026 | $0.46 | 179/200 | $15,439 | $15,675 | 71% | 77% | +$1,611 | -$33,005 | 300.0% | $-34,219 (vs do-nothing $-34,079) |
| $12.50 | 23d | 21 Aug 2026 | $0.67 | 176/200 | $15,381 | $15,651 | 69% | 77% | +$2,763 | -$28,756 | 261.4% | $-29,952 (vs do-nothing $-29,812) |
| $12 | 9d | 7 Aug 2026 | $0.45 | 103/200 | $15,450 | $16,541 | 66% | 74% | +$1,852 | -$24,245 | 220.4% | $-25,003 (vs do-nothing $-24,863) |
| $12 | 16d | 14 Aug 2026 | $0.67 | 123/200 | $15,452 | $16,318 | 64% | 74% | +$2,392 | -$26,247 | 238.6% | $-27,125 (vs do-nothing $-26,985) |
| $12 | 23d | 21 Aug 2026 | $0.85 | 139/200 | $15,411 | $16,097 | 63% | 73% | +$2,468 | -$27,159 | 246.9% | $-28,133 (vs do-nothing $-27,993) |
| $11.50 | 23d | 21 Aug 2026 | $1.05 | 113/200 | $15,476 | $16,455 | 57% | 70% | +$1,964 | -$25,469 | 231.5% | $-26,287 (vs do-nothing $-26,147) |
| $11.50 | 2d | 31 Jul 2026 | $0.33 | 32/200 | $15,840 | $17,730 | 56% | 69% | +$1,471 | -$9,516 | 86.5% | $-9,848 (vs do-nothing $-9,708) |
| $11.50 | 16d | 14 Aug 2026 | $0.82 | 100/200 | $15,375 | $16,500 | 56% | 70% | +$1,012 | -$24,839 | 225.8% | $-25,579 (vs do-nothing $-25,439) |
| $11.50 | 9d | 7 Aug 2026 | $0.59 | 79/200 | $15,537 | $16,898 | 56% | 69% | +$131 | -$21,440 | 194.9% | $-22,054 (vs do-nothing $-21,914) |
Income/mo = FIGHT leg gross, DTE-prorated. Net/mo = FIGHT + conservative CC gross minus hedge cost. POP (mid) = probability stock closes at or below (strike + mid premium) at expiry, per-strike chain IV when available. Survival = CC expires fully worthless. EV/mo = premium minus expected buyback, monthly, with realized vol = IV x 85% (variance risk premium 15%). Survival, POP and touch use vol x 1.00 (raw implied: the VRP haircut is applied to the premium edge but NOT to risk, because understating the edge costs opportunity while understating breach odds costs capital; the risk-side haircut arms only from the graded ledger). Cap give-up @ SS = recovery mortgaged on a V-bounce to SS, net of premium. Total P&L @ SS = absolute position P&L if the stock closes at SS; "vs do-nothing" = opportunity cost against holding all 200 contracts at the conservative CC.