200 contracts (20,000 sh) | BE SS: $40.55 | CC-SS: $14.56 | IV: HIGH | Accounts: Main:1299
| Max Loss | $11,000 | (ND $0.55 + SW $0) x 20000 |
| Normal income ref | $28,000/mo | 95% ann ROI on ML |
| Hedge (static, never rolled) | $0/mo | HP expiry = SP LEAPS; decay ≈ $0/mo (info only, already in marks) |
| Unrealized P&L | $-7,800 | fortress legs from IBKR |
| Open leg | Acct | Credit/sh | In flight | Opened |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 34x $14.5C 31 Jul 2026 | U10001299 | $0.21 | $714 | 2026-07-24 |
Each Friday gets its own recommended pick and full income ladder (safest strike per income rung, sized across your 200 contracts). The master ranks the two by E[net]/mo to pick one grand pick; both are shown here so you can choose the tenor that fits your roll cadence.
| Track | Expiry | Sell | Survival | Income/mo | E[net]/mo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NEXT FRIDAY 🏆 | 7 Aug 2026 · 8d | 163 × $11.50 | 76% | $14,059 | $1,472 |
| Rung | Sell | Expiry | DTE | OTM | Survival | Touch odds | FIGHT edge | Per cycle | Income/mo | Δ vs pick | Cap give-up | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| ▸ | 🛡 safe yield | 200 × $13 | 7 Aug | 8d | 24.4% | 93%hist 100% | 14%hist 5% | +50pp | $1,600 | $6,000 | -$8,059 | $29,634 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 200 × $13 24.4% OTM over spot $10.45 7 Aug 2026 (8d, $0.08 mid) = $1,600 credit for the 8d cycle → $6,000/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $13) 93% Breach risk 7% POP (stays ≤ $13.09) 94% EV / mo +$3,844 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +50pp 98% whole by 9mo vs 48% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~0.2/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $4,927/mo median; plan ~$3,350/mo after 68% keep · $7,748 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~1.5 mo [0.9-2.6], measured ONLY among the 98% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 11% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$10,043 Free roll-up +$0/wk Safest escape (by 21 Aug 2026) $15 @ 76% POP 71% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 200 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 8); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $0.82/sh now → $0.58 mid-life (likely $0.47–$0.79) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.08/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.50/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 318 simulated challenges: the $13 strike is typically first touched on day 6 of 8, at $13 (overshoots $0.40). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $13 is $2 below CC-SS $14.56: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.02/sh (~25% of the $0.08 collected) or spot ≥ $13.09 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $13)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $13.53 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.06 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $14.56, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-7,800 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$5,099 − CC assignment net of premium (200 × $13): -$29,634 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-32,336 ($-24,536 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-2,501 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-29,834, the opportunity cost of earning $6,000/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $11.80 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$0, position total $-6,126 (+$1,674 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 33% normal ← lean | 145 × $12 | 7 Aug | 8d | 14.8% | 84%hist 99% | 34%hist 18% | +53pp | $2,465 | $9,244 | -$4,815 | $34,680 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 145 × $12 14.8% OTM over spot $10.45 7 Aug 2026 (8d, $0.18 mid) = $2,465 credit for the 8d cycle → $9,244/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $12) 84% Breach risk 16% POP (stays ≤ $12.18) 86% EV / mo +$3,460 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +53pp 100% whole by 9mo vs 47% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~0.4/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $7,824/mo median; plan ~$5,320/mo after 68% keep · $9,290 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~1.1 mo [0.8-1.7], measured ONLY among the 100% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 25% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$5,004 Free roll-up +$0/wk Safest escape (by 21 Aug 2026) $14 @ 81% POP 78% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 145 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 8); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $0.73/sh now → $0.52 mid-life (likely $0.50–$0.79) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.17/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.35/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 748 simulated challenges: the $12 strike is typically first touched on day 5 of 8, at $12 (overshoots $0.38). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $12 is $3 below CC-SS $14.56: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.04/sh (~25% of the $0.17 collected) or spot ≥ $12.18 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $12)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $13.53 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.06 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $14.56, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-7,800 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$5,099 − CC assignment net of premium (145 × $12): -$34,680 + Conservative CC premium (55 × $18): +$55 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-37,326 ($-29,526 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-2,501 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-34,825, the opportunity cost of earning $9,244/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $11.80 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$0, position total $-6,071 (+$1,729 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🎯 50% normal | 163 × $11.50 | 7 Aug | 8d | 10.0% | 76%hist 96% | 51%hist 43% | +51pp | $3,749 | $14,059 | — | $46,157 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 163 × $11.50 10.0% OTM over spot $10.45 7 Aug 2026 (8d, $0.27 mid) = $3,749 credit for the 8d cycle → $14,059/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $11.50) 76% Breach risk 24% POP (stays ≤ $11.77) 80% EV / mo +$2,435 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +51pp 100% whole by 9mo vs 49% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~0.5/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $12,163/mo median; plan ~$8,271/mo after 68% keep · $10,292 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~0.8 mo [0.5-1.1], measured ONLY among the 100% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 41% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$4,123 Free roll-up +$0/wk Safest escape (by 21 Aug 2026) $14 @ 85% POP 83% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 163 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 8); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $0.68/sh now → $0.48 mid-life (likely $0.55–$0.80) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.23/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.25/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 1,226 simulated challenges: the $12 strike is typically first touched on day 4 of 8, at $12 (overshoots $0.37). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $11.50 is $3 below CC-SS $14.56: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.06/sh (~25% of the $0.23 collected) or spot ≥ $11.77 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $12)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $13.53 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.06 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $14.56, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-7,800 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$5,099 − CC assignment net of premium (163 × $11.50): -$46,157 + Conservative CC premium (37 × $18): +$37 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-48,821 ($-41,021 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-2,501 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-46,320, the opportunity cost of earning $14,059/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $11.80 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$1,141, position total $-7,230 (+$570 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 100% normal | 183 × $10.50 | 7 Aug | 8d | 0.5% | 54%hist 79% | 97%hist 90% | +53pp | $7,503 | $28,136 | +$14,078 | $66,826 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 183 × $10.50 0.5% OTM over spot $10.45 7 Aug 2026 (8d, $0.49 mid) = $7,503 credit for the 8d cycle → $28,136/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $10.50) 54% Breach risk 46% POP (stays ≤ $10.99) 66% EV / mo $-7,347 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +53pp 100% whole by 9mo vs 47% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~0.4/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $78,090/mo median; plan ~$53,101/mo after 68% keep · $7,809 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~0.1 mo [0.0-0.3], measured ONLY among the 100% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 76% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$210 Free roll-up +$0/wk Safest escape (by 21 Aug 2026) $14 @ 92% POP 92% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 183 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 8); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $0.60/sh now → $0.42 mid-life (likely $0.60–$0.88) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.41/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.01/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 2,295 simulated challenges: the $10 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 8, at $11 (overshoots $0.41). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $10.50 is $4 below CC-SS $14.56: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.10/sh (~25% of the $0.41 collected) or spot ≥ $10.99 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $10)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $13.53 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.06 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $14.56, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-7,800 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$5,099 − CC assignment net of premium (183 × $10.50): -$66,826 + Conservative CC premium (17 × $18): +$17 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-69,511 ($-61,711 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-2,501 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-67,009, the opportunity cost of earning $28,136/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $11.80 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$16,287, position total $-22,396 ($-14,596 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Every eligible strike x expiry in the 4-45 DTE band (3 expiries scanned, 8 clear the income floor), each sized to the minimum contracts that clear it. Sorted by survival (safest first): the primary 🎯 is the safest; rows below trade safety for income.
Fortress delta: 0.062 (IBKR) | Recovery@SS: +$5,099 (un-capped fortress gain if stock rallies to SS) | Do-nothing @ SS: $-2,501
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $11.50 | 8d | 7 Aug 2026 | $0.23 | 163/200 | $14,059 | $14,133 | 76% | 80% | +$2,435 | -$46,157 | 419.6% | $-48,821 (vs do-nothing $-46,320) |
| $11.50 | 15d | 14 Aug 2026 | $0.37 | 190/200 | $14,060 | $14,080 | 71% | 77% | +$315 | -$51,142 | 464.9% | $-53,834 (vs do-nothing $-51,332) |
| $11 | 8d | 7 Aug 2026 | $0.34 | 110/200 | $14,025 | $14,205 | 66% | 73% | +$728 | -$35,439 | 322.2% | $-38,050 (vs do-nothing $-35,549) |
| $11 | 15d | 14 Aug 2026 | $0.45 | 156/200 | $14,040 | $14,128 | 64% | 72% | $-1,994 | -$48,543 | 441.3% | $-51,200 (vs do-nothing $-48,699) |
| $11 | 22d | 21 Aug 2026 | $0.65 | 158/200 | $14,005 | $14,089 | 63% | 71% | $-420 | -$46,005 | 418.2% | $-48,664 (vs do-nothing $-46,163) |
| $10.50 | 22d | 21 Aug 2026 | $0.79 | 130/200 | $14,005 | $14,145 | 56% | 67% | $-1,461 | -$42,532 | 386.7% | $-45,164 (vs do-nothing $-42,662) |
| $10.50 | 15d | 14 Aug 2026 | $0.70 | 100/200 | $14,000 | $14,200 | 55% | 68% | $-331 | -$33,617 | 305.6% | $-36,219 (vs do-nothing $-33,717) |
| $10.50 | 8d | 7 Aug 2026 | $0.41 | 92/200 | $14,145 | $14,361 | 54% | 66% | $-3,694 | -$33,596 | 305.4% | $-36,189 (vs do-nothing $-33,688) |
Income/mo = FIGHT leg gross, DTE-prorated. Net/mo = FIGHT + conservative CC gross minus hedge cost. POP (mid) = probability stock closes at or below (strike + mid premium) at expiry, per-strike chain IV when available. Survival = CC expires fully worthless. EV/mo = premium minus expected buyback, monthly, with realized vol = IV x 85% (variance risk premium 15%). Survival, POP and touch use vol x 1.00 (raw implied: the VRP haircut is applied to the premium edge but NOT to risk, because understating the edge costs opportunity while understating breach odds costs capital; the risk-side haircut arms only from the graded ledger). Cap give-up @ SS = recovery mortgaged on a V-bounce to SS, net of premium. Total P&L @ SS = absolute position P&L if the stock closes at SS; "vs do-nothing" = opportunity cost against holding all 200 contracts at the conservative CC.