FORTRESS FIGHT: MARA-LC40 @ $10.68

BE SS: $40.55  |  CC-SS: $14.41  |  200 contracts (20,000 sh) |  ⌂ PORTFOLIO

GENERATED2026-07-30 21:39

MARA-LC40 @ $10.68   UNDERWATER $29.87 (73.7% below BE SS)

⚠ EARNINGS · DO NOT SELL INCOME INTO IT
MARA reports 2026-08-07 (Fri), in 8 days. The recommended CC (8d) expires on/after it, so selling now holds a short call through the earnings gap, a report can blow past your strike overnight and cap you at a loss. No priced expiry closes before the print, so waiting for it is the only clean option.

200 contracts (20,000 sh)  |  BE SS: $40.55  |  CC-SS: $14.41  |  IV: HIGH  |  Accounts: Main:1299

LC: $40 exp 2027-01-15 (entry $0.557/sh)

Economics

Max Loss$11,000(ND $0.55 + SW $0) x 20000
Normal income ref$28,400/mo95% ann ROI on ML
Hedge (static, never rolled)$0/moHP expiry = SP LEAPS; decay ≈ $0/mo (info only, already in marks)
Unrealized P&L$-6,900fortress legs from IBKR
INCOME GOALPOSTS & VELOCITY
50% INCOME FLOOR
$14,200/mo
HEDGE COVER
$0/mo (static)
NORMAL INCOME
$28,400/mo (ATM CC, chain)
IC VELOCITY
0.4 mo to earn back $11,000
ML VELOCITY
0.4 mo to earn back $11,000
Deep drawdown confirmed: a CC at CC-SS $14.41 (probe: $14.5C 15d) brings only $3,600/mo (<20% of normal), so FIGHT below it is warranted.
🏦 CAMPAIGN LEDGER , realized CC income since 2026-07-16; banked cash shrinks the hole (shown as an info-only banked floor, the recommended CC-SS stays the pure recovery strike; seeded from open positions, reconciled from IBKR executions nightly)
Banked since 2026-07-16
$0
Hole (after banked)
$6,900
was $6,900 · 0% earned back
Cycles closed
0
Credit in flight
$714
Open legAcctCredit/shIn flightOpened
34x $14.5C 31 Jul 2026U10001299$0.21$7142026-07-24
TECHNICALS (cc_timing weekly gate + daily trigger)
WEEKLYNEUTRAL · %B 35 (live) · RSI 45 · MACD bearish, hist falling
DAILYFALLING (provisional) · RSI 40 · %B 14 · hist falling (nightly)
LEVELSUpper BB (CC ceiling) $15.71 (+47%) · daily UBB $13.50 · 1-wk expected move ±$2 (chain IV)
SETUPNo tilt: engine default. (advisory; floors and picks are chain-only)
⚠ Next earnings 2026-08-07: candidates whose expiry crosses it are flagged in the spectrum; EV is unreliable across earnings.
INTERPRETATION
Primary: 146 contracts at $12 / 8d. This is the safest strike (survival 79%, breach 21%) that still earns 50% of normal income ($14,200/mo); it brings $14,235/mo. The engine maximizes the odds the pullback never reaches your strike, rather than chasing the fattest near-ATM premium.
More income, less safety: the ladder tops out at 200 × $11.50/8d for $28,500/mo, but breach risk rises to 30% (+8pp vs the primary). The lower strike is hit by a smaller bounce.
More safety, less income: for just the hedge you can sit at 200 × $13/8d (90% survival, $9,000/mo).
Downside anchor: the primary mortgages $31,374 (285% of IC) ONLY on a full V-bounce all the way to SS $41, recoverable in 1.1 months of normal income. That is the rare tail; the frequent case is the strike holding. Surgical close on the 146 contracts realizes $-5,402 and cuts bleed by $0/mo.

📅 Two weekly tracks, this Friday & next Friday

Each Friday gets its own recommended pick and full income ladder (safest strike per income rung, sized across your 200 contracts). The master ranks the two by E[net]/mo to pick one grand pick; both are shown here so you can choose the tenor that fits your roll cadence.

🏆 Grand pick: NEXT FRIDAY · 7 Aug 2026 (8d) · sell 146 × $12, 79% survival, $14,235/mo (E[net] $2,662/mo).
This week's Friday is inside the pin/gamma window, so only the next weekly is shown.
TrackExpirySellSurvivalIncome/moE[net]/mo
NEXT FRIDAY 🏆7 Aug 2026 · 8d146 × $1279%$14,235$2,662
E[net] arithmetic on the grand pick: keep $3,796 with probability 66%; on the 34% touch you roll, paying $9,792 to close and taking $4,430 back from the best priced door (net cash $5,362) and parking about one cycle of income. Charging the FULL buyback with no door credit (the pre-2026-07-25 model) contradicted the campaign simulation, which prices the same event as a cash-neutral even roll.

📅 NEXT FRIDAY · 7 Aug 2026 · 8d · E[net] $2,662/mo 🏆 GRAND PICK

🎯 Engine pick: sell 146 × $12 (50% normal), 79% survival, breach 21%, $14,235/mo.
⚖️ Worth a safer step: the $12.50 rung (33% normal) lifts survival to 85% (breach 21% → 15%) for $4,800/mo less (34% income), and it still covers your hedge. The pick sits below the ~80% (≈1σ) comfort line; on a drawdown you are nursing back, dodging the frequent breach usually beats the extra premium. Lean: the safer $12.50 rung, unless you need the income to cover the hedge bleed, or you expect MARA to stay flat-to-down near term.
MARA  spot $10.68 · click a rung to expand its decision panel
RungSellExpiryDTEOTMSurvivalTouch oddsFIGHT edgePer cycleIncome/moΔ vs pickCap give-up
🛡 safe yield200 × $137 Aug8d21.7%90%hist 100%21%hist 13%+42pp$2,400$9,000-$5,235$25,778
Sell 200 × $13 21.7% OTM over spot $10.68 7 Aug 2026 (8d, $0.14 mid)
= $2,400 credit for the 8d cycle → $9,000/mo projected
Survival (stays ≤ $13)
90%
Breach risk
10%
POP (stays ≤ $13.14)
91%
EV / mo
+$4,704
📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion)
FIGHT'S EDGE
+42pp
99% whole by 9mo vs 58% doing nothing
FIRE DRILLS
~0.2/quarter
challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration)
BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING
$8,000/mo
median; plan ~$5,440/mo after 68% keep · $7,118 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole)
green: with FIGHT · grey: without
if it recovers, the typical trip is ~0.8 mo [0.5-1.4], measured ONLY among the 99% of futures that got whole
🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it)
Challenge odds (touch by expiry)
16%
Flat exit net (mid-life)
-$12,715
Free roll-up
+$0/wk
Safest escape (by 21 Aug 2026)
$14 @ 75% POP
69% survival
Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 200 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 8); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic
Buyback gross: $1.07/sh now → $0.76 mid-life (likely $0.66–$1.10)≈ $0 at expiry  |  you banked $0.12/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.64/sh  |  roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours
📊 Across 487 simulated challenges: the $13 strike is typically first touched on day 6 of 8, at $13 (overshoots $0.45). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
MoveNew strike ≈New expiryTenorEst netTotal (200 ct)POP / surv
of new CC
If rolled & exited
total P&L · cap gain @ new strike
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)~$1321 Aug 202618d left+$0.36/sh+$7,144
cycle +$9,544
[+$5,663…+$9,974] · 98% credit
70%
surv 59%
+$6,287 SAFE
cap gain +$13,187
Roll out (same strike, buy time)~$1314 Aug 202611d left+$0.20/sh+$3,955
cycle +$6,355
[+$2,523…+$6,313] · 93% credit
67%
surv 54%
+$2,657 SAFE
cap gain +$9,557
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)~$1314 Aug 202611d left+$0.10/sh+$1,935
cycle +$4,335
[+$203…+$4,075] · 78% credit
70%
surv 59%
+$1,079 SAFE
cap gain +$7,979
Max even-money escape in the band~$1314 Aug 202611d left+$0.10/sh+$1,935
cycle +$4,335
[+$203…+$4,075] · 78% credit
70%
surv 59%
+$1,079 SAFE
cap gain +$7,979
SS $41 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)~$1421 Aug 202618d left-$0.02/sh-$461
cycle +$1,939
[-$3,316…+$1,831] · 44% credit
75%
surv 69%
+$63 SAFE
cap gain +$6,963
budget: banked $2,400 debit $461 (19% used ≈ 0.2 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$1,939 cash · rolled 200 ct earn ≈ $24,424/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike.
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP.
Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened.
More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stress
Income coverage
Gross FIGHT income$9,000/mo
vs 50% target ($14,200/mo)-37%
vs normal income ($28,400/mo)32% covered
Net income (after hedge)$9,000/mo
Downside budget
⚠ $13 is $1 below CC-SS $14.41: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)-$25,778
… as % of IC ($11,000)234.3%
… as % of ML ($11,000)234.3%
Recovery months (at normal income)0.9 mo
Surgical close (200 ct)$-7,300
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook
The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.03/sh (~25% of the $0.12 collected) or spot ≥ $13.14 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $13)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $13.50 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
Spot \ Time≥ 5d left3-4d left≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $12.87Do nothing. Theta wins.Do nothing.Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike
$13-13.14
Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven
≥ $13.14
Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.Close today, or be assigned.
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic  ·  fortress delta 0.07 (IBKR)
ScenarioSpotCC leg netPosition totalvs todayvs do-nothing
at strike$13.00 (1.3σ)$2,400$-1,298+$5,602+$2,200
+2.5%$13.32 (1.5σ)$-4,100$-7,350-$450-$4,300
+5%$13.65 (1.7σ)$-10,600$-13,401-$6,501-$10,800
SS (= V-bounce)$40.55 (17.2σ)$-548,600$-514,279-$507,379-$57,800
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $14.41, where you are whole again, by expiry)
Starting unrealized P&L: $-6,900
+ Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$5,146
− CC assignment net of premium (200 × $13): -$25,778
Total Position P&L @ SS: $-27,532 ($-20,632 vs today)
Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-1,554 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-25,978, the opportunity cost of earning $9,000/mo FIGHT income now)
BB-reversion stress (→ $15.71 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$51,800, position total $-51,759 ($-44,859 vs today)
33% normal ← lean148 × $12.507 Aug8d17.0%85%hist 99%32%hist 18%+44pp$2,516$9,435-$4,800$25,735
Sell 148 × $12.50 17.0% OTM over spot $10.68 7 Aug 2026 (8d, $0.25 mid)
= $2,516 credit for the 8d cycle → $9,435/mo projected
Survival (stays ≤ $12.50)
85%
Breach risk
15%
POP (stays ≤ $12.75)
87%
EV / mo
+$3,279
📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion)
FIGHT'S EDGE
+44pp
99% whole by 9mo vs 56% doing nothing
FIRE DRILLS
~0.3/quarter
challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration)
BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING
$8,727/mo
median; plan ~$5,935/mo after 68% keep · $7,610 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole)
green: with FIGHT · grey: without
if it recovers, the typical trip is ~0.8 mo [0.5-1.4], measured ONLY among the 99% of futures that got whole
🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it)
Challenge odds (touch by expiry)
22%
Flat exit net (mid-life)
-$8,031
Free roll-up
+$0/wk
Safest escape (by 21 Aug 2026)
$14 @ 76% POP
70% survival
Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 148 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 8); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic
Buyback gross: $1.01/sh now → $0.71 mid-life (likely $0.67–$1.07)≈ $0 at expiry  |  you banked $0.17/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.54/sh  |  roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours
📊 Across 671 simulated challenges: the $12 strike is typically first touched on day 5 of 8, at $13 (overshoots $0.40). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
MoveNew strike ≈New expiryTenorEst netTotal (148 ct)POP / surv
of new CC
If rolled & exited
total P&L · cap gain @ new strike
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)~$1321 Aug 202618d left+$0.33/sh+$4,883
cycle +$7,399
[+$3,293…+$6,475] · 98% credit
70%
surv 59%
+$3,504 SAFE
cap gain +$10,404
Roll out (same strike, buy time)~$1214 Aug 202611d left+$0.19/sh+$2,760
cycle +$5,276
[+$1,336…+$4,108] · 93% credit
67%
surv 54%
+$940 SAFE
cap gain +$7,840
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)~$1314 Aug 202611d left+$0.08/sh+$1,247
cycle +$3,763
[-$348…+$2,324] · 65% credit
70%
surv 59%
-$132 NOT
cap gain +$6,768
Max even-money escape in the band~$1314 Aug 202611d left+$0.08/sh+$1,247
cycle +$3,763
[-$348…+$2,324] · 65% credit
70%
surv 59%
-$132 NOT
cap gain +$6,768
SS $41 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)~$1421 Aug 202618d left-$0.04/sh-$616
cycle +$1,900
[-$3,086…+$347] · 29% credit
76%
surv 70%
-$615 NOT
cap gain +$6,285
budget: banked $2,516 debit $616 (24% used ≈ 0.3 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$1,900 cash · rolled 148 ct earn ≈ $16,552/mo while parked; 52 ct free to re-sell
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike.
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP.
Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened.
More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stress
Income coverage
Gross FIGHT income$9,435/mo
vs 50% target ($14,200/mo)-34%
vs normal income ($28,400/mo)33% covered
Net income (after hedge)$9,539/mo
Downside budget
⚠ $12.50 is $2 below CC-SS $14.41: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)-$25,735
… as % of IC ($11,000)234.0%
… as % of ML ($11,000)234.0%
Recovery months (at normal income)0.9 mo
Surgical close (148 ct)$-6,290
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook
The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.04/sh (~25% of the $0.17 collected) or spot ≥ $12.75 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $12)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $13.50 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
Spot \ Time≥ 5d left3-4d left≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $12.38Do nothing. Theta wins.Do nothing.Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike
$12-12.75
Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven
≥ $12.75
Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.Close today, or be assigned.
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic  ·  fortress delta 0.07 (IBKR)
ScenarioSpotCC leg netPosition totalvs todayvs do-nothing
at strike$12.50 (1.0σ)$2,516$-1,820+$5,080+$2,368
+2.5%$12.81 (1.2σ)$-2,109$-6,014+$886-$2,257
+5%$13.12 (1.4σ)$-6,734$-10,208-$3,308-$6,882
SS (= V-bounce)$40.55 (17.2σ)$-412,624$-505,911-$499,011-$49,432
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $14.41, where you are whole again, by expiry)
Starting unrealized P&L: $-6,900
+ Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$5,146
− CC assignment net of premium (148 × $12.50): -$25,735
+ Conservative CC premium (52 × $16): +$52
Total Position P&L @ SS: $-27,438 ($-20,538 vs today)
Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-1,554 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-25,883, the opportunity cost of earning $9,435/mo FIGHT income now)
BB-reversion stress (→ $15.71 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$44,992, position total $-44,899 ($-37,999 vs today)
🎯 50% normal146 × $127 Aug8d12.4%79%hist 96%45%hist 28%+40pp$3,796$14,235$31,374
Sell 146 × $12 12.4% OTM over spot $10.68 7 Aug 2026 (8d, $0.29 mid)
= $3,796 credit for the 8d cycle → $14,235/mo projected
Survival (stays ≤ $12)
79%
Breach risk
21%
POP (stays ≤ $12.29)
82%
EV / mo
+$4,413
📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion)
FIGHT'S EDGE
+40pp
100% whole by 9mo vs 60% doing nothing
FIRE DRILLS
~0.3/quarter
challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration)
BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING
$14,964/mo
median; plan ~$10,175/mo after 68% keep · $8,131 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole)
green: with FIGHT · grey: without
if it recovers, the typical trip is ~0.5 mo [0.4-0.8], measured ONLY among the 100% of futures that got whole
🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it)
Challenge odds (touch by expiry)
34%
Flat exit net (mid-life)
-$5,996
Free roll-up
+$0/wk
Safest escape (by 21 Aug 2026)
$13 @ 76% POP
70% survival
Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 146 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 8); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic
Buyback gross: $0.95/sh now → $0.67 mid-life (likely $0.69–$1.10)≈ $0 at expiry  |  you banked $0.26/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.41/sh  |  roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours
📊 Across 1,011 simulated challenges: the $12 strike is typically first touched on day 4 of 8, at $12 (overshoots $0.40). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
MoveNew strike ≈New expiryTenorEst netTotal (146 ct)POP / surv
of new CC
If rolled & exited
total P&L · cap gain @ new strike
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)~$1221 Aug 202618d left+$0.30/sh+$4,430
cycle +$8,226
[+$2,382…+$5,205] · 97% credit
70%
surv 59%
+$3,643 SAFE
cap gain +$10,543
Roll out (same strike, buy time)~$1214 Aug 202611d left+$0.18/sh+$2,563
cycle +$6,359
[+$767…+$3,197] · 88% credit
67%
surv 54%
+$1,334 SAFE
cap gain +$8,234
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)~$1214 Aug 202611d left+$0.07/sh+$1,053
cycle +$4,849
[-$902…+$1,571] · 51% credit
70%
surv 59%
+$267 SAFE
cap gain +$7,167
Max even-money escape in the band~$1214 Aug 202611d left+$0.07/sh+$1,053
cycle +$4,849
[-$902…+$1,571] · 51% credit
70%
surv 59%
+$267 SAFE
cap gain +$7,167
SS $41 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)~$1321 Aug 202618d left-$0.06/sh-$866
cycle +$2,930
[-$3,839…-$458] · 19% credit
76%
surv 70%
-$272 NOT
cap gain +$6,628
budget: banked $3,796 debit $866 (23% used ≈ 0.3 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$2,930 cash · rolled 146 ct earn ≈ $14,878/mo while parked; 54 ct free to re-sell
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike.
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP.
Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened.
More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stress
Income coverage
Gross FIGHT income$14,235/mo
vs 50% target ($14,200/mo)+0%
vs normal income ($28,400/mo)50% covered
Net income (after hedge)$14,343/mo
Downside budget
⚠ $12 is $2 below CC-SS $14.41: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)-$31,374
… as % of IC ($11,000)285.2%
… as % of ML ($11,000)285.2%
Recovery months (at normal income)1.1 mo
Surgical close (146 ct)$-5,402
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook
The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.07/sh (~25% of the $0.26 collected) or spot ≥ $12.29 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $12)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $13.50 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
Spot \ Time≥ 5d left3-4d left≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $11.88Do nothing. Theta wins.Do nothing.Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike
$12-12.29
Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven
≥ $12.29
Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.Close today, or be assigned.
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic  ·  fortress delta 0.07 (IBKR)
ScenarioSpotCC leg netPosition totalvs todayvs do-nothing
at strike$12.00 (≤1σ, normal week)$3,796$-1,228+$5,672+$3,650
+2.5%$12.30 (≤1σ, normal week)$-584$-5,194+$1,706-$730
+5%$12.60 (1.1σ)$-4,964$-9,160-$2,260-$5,110
SS (= V-bounce)$40.55 (17.2σ)$-413,034$-511,229-$504,329-$54,750
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $14.41, where you are whole again, by expiry)
Starting unrealized P&L: $-6,900
+ Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$5,146
− CC assignment net of premium (146 × $12): -$31,374
+ Conservative CC premium (54 × $16): +$54
Total Position P&L @ SS: $-33,074 ($-26,174 vs today)
Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-1,554 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-31,520, the opportunity cost of earning $14,235/mo FIGHT income now)
BB-reversion stress (→ $15.71 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$50,370, position total $-50,275 ($-43,375 vs today)
100% normal200 × $11.507 Aug8d7.7%70%hist 96%63%hist 51%+38pp$7,600$28,500+$14,265$50,578
Sell 200 × $11.50 7.7% OTM over spot $10.68 7 Aug 2026 (8d, $0.42 mid)
= $7,600 credit for the 8d cycle → $28,500/mo projected
Survival (stays ≤ $11.50)
70%
Breach risk
30%
POP (stays ≤ $11.91)
77%
EV / mo
+$6,922
📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion)
FIGHT'S EDGE
+38pp
100% whole by 9mo vs 62% doing nothing
FIRE DRILLS
~0.2/quarter
challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration)
BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING
$38,000/mo
median; plan ~$25,840/mo after 68% keep · $7,600 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole)
green: with FIGHT · grey: without
if it recovers, the typical trip is ~0.3 mo [0.1-0.3], measured ONLY among the 100% of futures that got whole
🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it)
Challenge odds (touch by expiry)
50%
Flat exit net (mid-life)
-$4,997
Free roll-up
+$0/wk
Safest escape (by 21 Aug 2026)
$13 @ 78% POP
76% survival
Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 200 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 8); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic
Buyback gross: $0.89/sh now → $0.63 mid-life (likely $0.75–$1.09)≈ $0 at expiry  |  you banked $0.38/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.25/sh  |  roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours
📊 Across 1,497 simulated challenges: the $12 strike is typically first touched on day 3 of 8, at $12 (overshoots $0.38). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
MoveNew strike ≈New expiryTenorEst netTotal (200 ct)POP / surv
of new CC
If rolled & exited
total P&L · cap gain @ new strike
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)~$1221 Aug 202618d left+$0.28/sh+$5,553
cycle +$13,153
[+$2,412…+$5,107] · 95% credit
70%
surv 59%
+$7,826 SAFE
cap gain +$14,726
Roll out (same strike, buy time)~$1214 Aug 202611d left+$0.16/sh+$3,297
cycle +$10,897
[+$548…+$2,875] · 84% credit
67%
surv 54%
+$5,128 SAFE
cap gain +$12,028
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)~$1214 Aug 202611d left+$0.06/sh+$1,208
cycle +$8,808
[-$1,801…+$571] · 33% credit
70%
surv 59%
+$3,481 SAFE
cap gain +$10,381
Max even-money escape in the band~$1214 Aug 202611d left+$0.06/sh+$1,208
cycle +$8,808
[-$1,801…+$571] · 33% credit
70%
surv 59%
+$3,481 SAFE
cap gain +$10,381
SS $41 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)~$1321 Aug 202618d left-$0.38/sh-$7,568
cycle +$32
[-$14,468…-$9,298]
78%
surv 76%
-$3,225 NOT
cap gain +$3,675
budget: banked $7,600 debit $7,568 (100% used ≈ 1.2 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$32 cash · rolled 200 ct earn ≈ $8,381/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike.
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP.
Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened.
More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stress
Income coverage
Gross FIGHT income$28,500/mo
vs 50% target ($14,200/mo)+101%
vs normal income ($28,400/mo)100% covered
Net income (after hedge)$28,500/mo
Downside budget
⚠ $11.50 is $3 below CC-SS $14.41: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)-$50,578
… as % of IC ($11,000)459.8%
… as % of ML ($11,000)459.8%
Recovery months (at normal income)1.8 mo
Surgical close (200 ct)$-7,600
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook
The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.10/sh (~25% of the $0.38 collected) or spot ≥ $11.91 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $12)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $13.50 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
Spot \ Time≥ 5d left3-4d left≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $11.38Do nothing. Theta wins.Do nothing.Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike
$11-11.91
Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven
≥ $11.91
Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.Close today, or be assigned.
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic  ·  fortress delta 0.07 (IBKR)
ScenarioSpotCC leg netPosition totalvs todayvs do-nothing
at strike$11.50 (≤1σ, normal week)$7,600$1,832+$8,732+$7,400
+2.5%$11.79 (≤1σ, normal week)$1,850$-3,522+$3,378+$1,650
+5%$12.08 (≤1σ, normal week)$-3,900$-8,875-$1,975-$4,100
SS (= V-bounce)$40.55 (17.2σ)$-573,400$-539,079-$532,179-$82,600
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $14.41, where you are whole again, by expiry)
Starting unrealized P&L: $-6,900
+ Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$5,146
− CC assignment net of premium (200 × $11.50): -$50,578
Total Position P&L @ SS: $-52,332 ($-45,432 vs today)
Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-1,554 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-50,778, the opportunity cost of earning $28,500/mo FIGHT income now)
BB-reversion stress (→ $15.71 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$76,600, position total $-76,559 ($-69,659 vs today)
A nudge, not a rule: the engine maximizes income at acceptable safety; this weighs the income you would give up against the breach risk you would shed. Your hedge bleed and your read on MARA are the tiebreakers.
⚔ FIGHT CC options · full candidate scan (11 clear the floor), click to expand

Every eligible strike x expiry in the 4-45 DTE band (3 expiries scanned, 11 clear the income floor), each sized to the minimum contracts that clear it. Sorted by survival (safest first): the primary 🎯 is the safest; rows below trade safety for income.

Fortress delta: 0.069 (IBKR)  |  Recovery@SS: +$5,146 (un-capped fortress gain if stock rallies to SS)  |  Do-nothing @ SS: $-1,554

StrikeDTEExpiryBidSellIncome/moNet/moSurvivalPOP (mid)EV/moCap Give-up @ CC-SS%ICTotal P&L @ SS
$128d7 Aug 2026$0.26146/200$14,235$14,34379%82%+$4,413-$31,374285.2%$-33,074 (vs do-nothing $-31,520)
$1215d14 Aug 2026$0.36198/200$14,256$14,26074%79%+$280-$40,568368.8%$-42,320 (vs do-nothing $-40,766)
$1222d21 Aug 2026$0.55190/200$14,250$14,27071%77%+$1,119-$35,319321.1%$-37,063 (vs do-nothing $-35,509)
$11.508d7 Aug 2026$0.38100/200$14,250$14,45070%77%+$3,461-$25,289229.9%$-26,943 (vs do-nothing $-25,389)
$11.5015d14 Aug 2026$0.48148/200$14,208$14,31267%75%$-315-$35,947326.8%$-37,650 (vs do-nothing $-36,095)
$118d7 Aug 2026$0.5372/200$14,310$14,56660%72%+$2,136-$20,728188.4%$-22,354 (vs do-nothing $-20,800)
$1122d21 Aug 2026$0.90116/200$14,236$14,40460%71%+$959-$29,103264.6%$-30,773 (vs do-nothing $-29,219)
$1115d14 Aug 2026$0.7398/200$14,308$14,51260%72%+$1,197-$26,253238.7%$-27,905 (vs do-nothing $-26,351)
$10.5022d21 Aug 2026$1.1293/200$14,204$14,41853%68%+$748-$25,937235.8%$-27,584 (vs do-nothing $-26,030)
$10.5015d14 Aug 2026$0.8980/200$14,240$14,48051%67%$-54-$24,151219.6%$-25,785 (vs do-nothing $-24,231)
$10.508d7 Aug 2026$0.7750/200$14,438$14,73849%67%+$1,681-$15,694142.7%$-17,299 (vs do-nothing $-15,744)

Income/mo = FIGHT leg gross, DTE-prorated. Net/mo = FIGHT + conservative CC gross minus hedge cost. POP (mid) = probability stock closes at or below (strike + mid premium) at expiry, per-strike chain IV when available. Survival = CC expires fully worthless. EV/mo = premium minus expected buyback, monthly, with realized vol = IV x 85% (variance risk premium 15%). Survival, POP and touch use vol x 1.00 (raw implied: the VRP haircut is applied to the premium edge but NOT to risk, because understating the edge costs opportunity while understating breach odds costs capital; the risk-side haircut arms only from the graded ledger). Cap give-up @ SS = recovery mortgaged on a V-bounce to SS, net of premium. Total P&L @ SS = absolute position P&L if the stock closes at SS; "vs do-nothing" = opportunity cost against holding all 200 contracts at the conservative CC.

fortress_fight.py v6.3  |  2026-07-30 21:39