200 contracts (20,000 sh) | BE SS: $40.55 | CC-SS: $14.41 | IV: HIGH | Accounts: Main:1299
| Max Loss | $11,000 | (ND $0.55 + SW $0) x 20000 |
| Normal income ref | $28,400/mo | 95% ann ROI on ML |
| Hedge (static, never rolled) | $0/mo | HP expiry = SP LEAPS; decay ≈ $0/mo (info only, already in marks) |
| Unrealized P&L | $-6,900 | fortress legs from IBKR |
| Open leg | Acct | Credit/sh | In flight | Opened |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 34x $14.5C 31 Jul 2026 | U10001299 | $0.21 | $714 | 2026-07-24 |
Each Friday gets its own recommended pick and full income ladder (safest strike per income rung, sized across your 200 contracts). The master ranks the two by E[net]/mo to pick one grand pick; both are shown here so you can choose the tenor that fits your roll cadence.
| Track | Expiry | Sell | Survival | Income/mo | E[net]/mo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NEXT FRIDAY 🏆 | 7 Aug 2026 · 8d | 146 × $12 | 79% | $14,235 | $2,662 |
| Rung | Sell | Expiry | DTE | OTM | Survival | Touch odds | FIGHT edge | Per cycle | Income/mo | Δ vs pick | Cap give-up | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| ▸ | 🛡 safe yield | 200 × $13 | 7 Aug | 8d | 21.7% | 90%hist 100% | 21%hist 13% | +42pp | $2,400 | $9,000 | -$5,235 | $25,778 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 200 × $13 21.7% OTM over spot $10.68 7 Aug 2026 (8d, $0.14 mid) = $2,400 credit for the 8d cycle → $9,000/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $13) 90% Breach risk 10% POP (stays ≤ $13.14) 91% EV / mo +$4,704 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +42pp 99% whole by 9mo vs 58% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~0.2/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $8,000/mo median; plan ~$5,440/mo after 68% keep · $7,118 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~0.8 mo [0.5-1.4], measured ONLY among the 99% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 16% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$12,715 Free roll-up +$0/wk Safest escape (by 21 Aug 2026) $14 @ 75% POP 69% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 200 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 8); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $1.07/sh now → $0.76 mid-life (likely $0.66–$1.10) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.12/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.64/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 487 simulated challenges: the $13 strike is typically first touched on day 6 of 8, at $13 (overshoots $0.45). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $13 is $1 below CC-SS $14.41: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.03/sh (~25% of the $0.12 collected) or spot ≥ $13.14 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $13)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $13.50 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.07 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $14.41, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-6,900 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$5,146 − CC assignment net of premium (200 × $13): -$25,778 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-27,532 ($-20,632 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-1,554 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-25,978, the opportunity cost of earning $9,000/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $15.71 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$51,800, position total $-51,759 ($-44,859 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 33% normal ← lean | 148 × $12.50 | 7 Aug | 8d | 17.0% | 85%hist 99% | 32%hist 18% | +44pp | $2,516 | $9,435 | -$4,800 | $25,735 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 148 × $12.50 17.0% OTM over spot $10.68 7 Aug 2026 (8d, $0.25 mid) = $2,516 credit for the 8d cycle → $9,435/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $12.50) 85% Breach risk 15% POP (stays ≤ $12.75) 87% EV / mo +$3,279 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +44pp 99% whole by 9mo vs 56% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~0.3/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $8,727/mo median; plan ~$5,935/mo after 68% keep · $7,610 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~0.8 mo [0.5-1.4], measured ONLY among the 99% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 22% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$8,031 Free roll-up +$0/wk Safest escape (by 21 Aug 2026) $14 @ 76% POP 70% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 148 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 8); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $1.01/sh now → $0.71 mid-life (likely $0.67–$1.07) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.17/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.54/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 671 simulated challenges: the $12 strike is typically first touched on day 5 of 8, at $13 (overshoots $0.40). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $12.50 is $2 below CC-SS $14.41: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.04/sh (~25% of the $0.17 collected) or spot ≥ $12.75 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $12)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $13.50 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.07 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $14.41, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-6,900 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$5,146 − CC assignment net of premium (148 × $12.50): -$25,735 + Conservative CC premium (52 × $16): +$52 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-27,438 ($-20,538 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-1,554 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-25,883, the opportunity cost of earning $9,435/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $15.71 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$44,992, position total $-44,899 ($-37,999 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🎯 50% normal | 146 × $12 | 7 Aug | 8d | 12.4% | 79%hist 96% | 45%hist 28% | +40pp | $3,796 | $14,235 | — | $31,374 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 146 × $12 12.4% OTM over spot $10.68 7 Aug 2026 (8d, $0.29 mid) = $3,796 credit for the 8d cycle → $14,235/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $12) 79% Breach risk 21% POP (stays ≤ $12.29) 82% EV / mo +$4,413 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +40pp 100% whole by 9mo vs 60% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~0.3/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $14,964/mo median; plan ~$10,175/mo after 68% keep · $8,131 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~0.5 mo [0.4-0.8], measured ONLY among the 100% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 34% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$5,996 Free roll-up +$0/wk Safest escape (by 21 Aug 2026) $13 @ 76% POP 70% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 146 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 8); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $0.95/sh now → $0.67 mid-life (likely $0.69–$1.10) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.26/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.41/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 1,011 simulated challenges: the $12 strike is typically first touched on day 4 of 8, at $12 (overshoots $0.40). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $12 is $2 below CC-SS $14.41: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.07/sh (~25% of the $0.26 collected) or spot ≥ $12.29 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $12)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $13.50 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.07 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $14.41, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-6,900 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$5,146 − CC assignment net of premium (146 × $12): -$31,374 + Conservative CC premium (54 × $16): +$54 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-33,074 ($-26,174 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-1,554 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-31,520, the opportunity cost of earning $14,235/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $15.71 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$50,370, position total $-50,275 ($-43,375 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 100% normal | 200 × $11.50 | 7 Aug | 8d | 7.7% | 70%hist 96% | 63%hist 51% | +38pp | $7,600 | $28,500 | +$14,265 | $50,578 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 200 × $11.50 7.7% OTM over spot $10.68 7 Aug 2026 (8d, $0.42 mid) = $7,600 credit for the 8d cycle → $28,500/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $11.50) 70% Breach risk 30% POP (stays ≤ $11.91) 77% EV / mo +$6,922 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +38pp 100% whole by 9mo vs 62% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~0.2/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $38,000/mo median; plan ~$25,840/mo after 68% keep · $7,600 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~0.3 mo [0.1-0.3], measured ONLY among the 100% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 50% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$4,997 Free roll-up +$0/wk Safest escape (by 21 Aug 2026) $13 @ 78% POP 76% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 200 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 8); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $0.89/sh now → $0.63 mid-life (likely $0.75–$1.09) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.38/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.25/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 1,497 simulated challenges: the $12 strike is typically first touched on day 3 of 8, at $12 (overshoots $0.38). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $11.50 is $3 below CC-SS $14.41: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.10/sh (~25% of the $0.38 collected) or spot ≥ $11.91 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $12)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $13.50 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.07 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $14.41, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-6,900 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$5,146 − CC assignment net of premium (200 × $11.50): -$50,578 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-52,332 ($-45,432 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-1,554 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-50,778, the opportunity cost of earning $28,500/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $15.71 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$76,600, position total $-76,559 ($-69,659 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Every eligible strike x expiry in the 4-45 DTE band (3 expiries scanned, 11 clear the income floor), each sized to the minimum contracts that clear it. Sorted by survival (safest first): the primary 🎯 is the safest; rows below trade safety for income.
Fortress delta: 0.069 (IBKR) | Recovery@SS: +$5,146 (un-capped fortress gain if stock rallies to SS) | Do-nothing @ SS: $-1,554
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $12 | 8d | 7 Aug 2026 | $0.26 | 146/200 | $14,235 | $14,343 | 79% | 82% | +$4,413 | -$31,374 | 285.2% | $-33,074 (vs do-nothing $-31,520) |
| $12 | 15d | 14 Aug 2026 | $0.36 | 198/200 | $14,256 | $14,260 | 74% | 79% | +$280 | -$40,568 | 368.8% | $-42,320 (vs do-nothing $-40,766) |
| $12 | 22d | 21 Aug 2026 | $0.55 | 190/200 | $14,250 | $14,270 | 71% | 77% | +$1,119 | -$35,319 | 321.1% | $-37,063 (vs do-nothing $-35,509) |
| $11.50 | 8d | 7 Aug 2026 | $0.38 | 100/200 | $14,250 | $14,450 | 70% | 77% | +$3,461 | -$25,289 | 229.9% | $-26,943 (vs do-nothing $-25,389) |
| $11.50 | 15d | 14 Aug 2026 | $0.48 | 148/200 | $14,208 | $14,312 | 67% | 75% | $-315 | -$35,947 | 326.8% | $-37,650 (vs do-nothing $-36,095) |
| $11 | 8d | 7 Aug 2026 | $0.53 | 72/200 | $14,310 | $14,566 | 60% | 72% | +$2,136 | -$20,728 | 188.4% | $-22,354 (vs do-nothing $-20,800) |
| $11 | 22d | 21 Aug 2026 | $0.90 | 116/200 | $14,236 | $14,404 | 60% | 71% | +$959 | -$29,103 | 264.6% | $-30,773 (vs do-nothing $-29,219) |
| $11 | 15d | 14 Aug 2026 | $0.73 | 98/200 | $14,308 | $14,512 | 60% | 72% | +$1,197 | -$26,253 | 238.7% | $-27,905 (vs do-nothing $-26,351) |
| $10.50 | 22d | 21 Aug 2026 | $1.12 | 93/200 | $14,204 | $14,418 | 53% | 68% | +$748 | -$25,937 | 235.8% | $-27,584 (vs do-nothing $-26,030) |
| $10.50 | 15d | 14 Aug 2026 | $0.89 | 80/200 | $14,240 | $14,480 | 51% | 67% | $-54 | -$24,151 | 219.6% | $-25,785 (vs do-nothing $-24,231) |
| $10.50 | 8d | 7 Aug 2026 | $0.77 | 50/200 | $14,438 | $14,738 | 49% | 67% | +$1,681 | -$15,694 | 142.7% | $-17,299 (vs do-nothing $-15,744) |
Income/mo = FIGHT leg gross, DTE-prorated. Net/mo = FIGHT + conservative CC gross minus hedge cost. POP (mid) = probability stock closes at or below (strike + mid premium) at expiry, per-strike chain IV when available. Survival = CC expires fully worthless. EV/mo = premium minus expected buyback, monthly, with realized vol = IV x 85% (variance risk premium 15%). Survival, POP and touch use vol x 1.00 (raw implied: the VRP haircut is applied to the premium edge but NOT to risk, because understating the edge costs opportunity while understating breach odds costs capital; the risk-side haircut arms only from the graded ledger). Cap give-up @ SS = recovery mortgaged on a V-bounce to SS, net of premium. Total P&L @ SS = absolute position P&L if the stock closes at SS; "vs do-nothing" = opportunity cost against holding all 200 contracts at the conservative CC.