200 contracts (20,000 sh) | BE SS: $40.55 | CC-SS: $15.18 | IV: HIGH | Accounts: Main:1299
| Max Loss | $11,000 | (ND $0.55 + SW $0) x 20000 |
| Normal income ref | $36,429/mo | 95% ann ROI on ML |
| Hedge (static, never rolled) | $0/mo | HP expiry = SP LEAPS; decay ≈ $0/mo (info only, already in marks) |
| Unrealized P&L | $-6,300 | fortress legs from IBKR |
| Open leg | Acct | Credit/sh | In flight | Opened |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 34x $14.5C 31 Jul 2026 | U10001299 | $0.21 | $714 | 2026-07-24 |
Each Friday gets its own recommended pick and full income ladder (safest strike per income rung, sized across your 200 contracts). The master ranks the two by E[net]/mo to pick one grand pick; both are shown here so you can choose the tenor that fits your roll cadence.
| Track | Expiry | Sell | Survival | Income/mo | E[net]/mo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NEXT FRIDAY 🏆 | 7 Aug 2026 · 7d | 138 × $13 | 77% | $18,334 | $3,672 |
| Rung | Sell | Expiry | DTE | OTM | Survival | Touch odds | FIGHT edge | Per cycle | Income/mo | Δ vs pick | Cap give-up | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| ▸ | 🛡 safe yield | 200 × $15 | 7 Aug | 7d | 26.1% | 93%hist 100% | 14%hist 5% | +31pp | $1,400 | $6,000 | -$12,334 | $2,223 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 200 × $15 26.1% OTM over spot $11.90 7 Aug 2026 (7d, $0.08 mid) = $1,400 credit for the 7d cycle → $6,000/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $15) 93% Breach risk 7% POP (stays ≤ $15.07) 94% EV / mo +$2,948 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +31pp 94% whole by 9mo vs 62% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~0.2/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $4,936/mo median; plan ~$3,357/mo after 68% keep · $5,424 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~0.9 mo [0.5-2.1], measured ONLY among the 94% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 8% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$13,551 Free roll-up +$1/wk Safest escape (by 21 Aug 2026) $17 @ 79% POP 75% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 200 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 7); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $1.06/sh now → $0.75 mid-life (likely $0.59–$1.05) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.07/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.68/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 237 simulated challenges: the $15 strike is typically first touched on day 5 of 7, at $16 (overshoots $0.53). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $15 is $0 below CC-SS $15.18: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.02/sh (~25% of the $0.07 collected) or spot ≥ $15.07 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $15)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $13.29 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.08 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $15.18, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-6,300 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$5,185 − CC assignment net of premium (200 × $15): -$2,223 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-3,338 (+$2,962 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-915 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-2,423, the opportunity cost of earning $6,000/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $15.73 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$13,200, position total $-13,448 ($-7,148 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 33% normal ← lean | 141 × $13.50 | 7 Aug | 7d | 13.5% | 84%hist 99% | 33%hist 18% | +37pp | $2,820 | $12,086 | -$6,249 | $20,884 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 141 × $13.50 13.5% OTM over spot $11.90 7 Aug 2026 (7d, $0.23 mid) = $2,820 credit for the 7d cycle → $12,086/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $13.50) 84% Breach risk 16% POP (stays ≤ $13.72) 87% EV / mo +$6,147 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +37pp 100% whole by 9mo vs 63% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~0.2/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $12,076/mo median; plan ~$8,212/mo after 68% keep · $6,501 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~0.6 mo [0.4-0.9], measured ONLY among the 100% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 28% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$6,175 Free roll-up +$1/wk Safest escape (by 21 Aug 2026) $16 @ 81% POP 77% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 141 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 7); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $0.90/sh now → $0.64 mid-life (likely $0.62–$1.01) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.20/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.44/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 839 simulated challenges: the $14 strike is typically first touched on day 4 of 7, at $14 (overshoots $0.44). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $13.50 is $2 below CC-SS $15.18: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.05/sh (~25% of the $0.20 collected) or spot ≥ $13.72 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $14)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $13.29 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.08 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $15.18, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-6,300 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$5,185 − CC assignment net of premium (141 × $13.50): -$20,884 + Conservative CC premium (59 × $25): +$59 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-21,940 ($-15,640 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-915 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-21,025, the opportunity cost of earning $12,086/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $15.73 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$28,623, position total $-28,812 ($-22,512 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🎯 50% normal | 138 × $13 | 7 Aug | 7d | 9.2% | 77%hist 96% | 49%hist 28% | +40pp | $4,278 | $18,334 | — | $25,822 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 138 × $13 9.2% OTM over spot $11.90 7 Aug 2026 (7d, $0.33 mid) = $4,278 credit for the 7d cycle → $18,334/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $13) 77% Breach risk 23% POP (stays ≤ $13.32) 82% EV / mo +$7,782 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +40pp 100% whole by 9mo vs 60% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~0.3/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $20,630/mo median; plan ~$14,028/mo after 68% keep · $8,603 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~0.4 mo [0.2-0.5], measured ONLY among the 100% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 39% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$4,045 Free roll-up +$0/wk Safest escape (by 21 Aug 2026) $16 @ 84% POP 82% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 138 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 7); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $0.85/sh now → $0.60 mid-life (likely $0.70–$1.03) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.31/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.29/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 1,182 simulated challenges: the $13 strike is typically first touched on day 3 of 7, at $13 (overshoots $0.42). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $13 is $2 below CC-SS $15.18: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.08/sh (~25% of the $0.31 collected) or spot ≥ $13.32 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $13)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $13.29 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.08 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $15.18, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-6,300 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$5,185 − CC assignment net of premium (138 × $13): -$25,822 + Conservative CC premium (62 × $25): +$62 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-26,875 ($-20,575 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-915 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-25,960, the opportunity cost of earning $18,334/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $15.73 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$33,396, position total $-33,582 ($-27,282 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 100% normal | 194 × $12.50 | 7 Aug | 7d | 5.0% | 66%hist 80% | 73%hist 59% | +37pp | $8,536 | $36,583 | +$18,249 | $43,479 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 194 × $12.50 5.0% OTM over spot $11.90 7 Aug 2026 (7d, $0.47 mid) = $8,536 credit for the 7d cycle → $36,583/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $12.50) 66% Breach risk 34% POP (stays ≤ $12.97) 74% EV / mo +$5,988 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +37pp 100% whole by 9mo vs 63% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~0.2/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $51,679/mo median; plan ~$35,142/mo after 68% keep · $8,573 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~0.2 mo [0.1-0.2], measured ONLY among the 100% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 54% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$2,505 Free roll-up +$0/wk Safest escape (by 21 Aug 2026) $16 @ 90% POP 89% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 194 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 7); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $0.80/sh now → $0.57 mid-life (likely $0.71–$1.04) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.44/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.13/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 1,632 simulated challenges: the $12 strike is typically first touched on day 3 of 7, at $13 (overshoots $0.42). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $12.50 is $3 below CC-SS $15.18: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.11/sh (~25% of the $0.44 collected) or spot ≥ $12.97 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $12)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $13.29 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.08 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $15.18, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-6,300 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$5,185 − CC assignment net of premium (194 × $12.50): -$43,479 + Conservative CC premium (6 × $25): +$6 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-44,588 ($-38,288 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-915 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-43,673, the opportunity cost of earning $36,583/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $15.73 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$54,126, position total $-54,368 ($-48,068 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Every eligible strike x expiry in the 4-45 DTE band (4 expiries scanned, 10 clear the income floor), each sized to the minimum contracts that clear it. Sorted by survival (safest first): the primary 🎯 is the safest; rows below trade safety for income.
Fortress delta: 0.079 (IBKR) | Recovery@SS: +$5,185 (un-capped fortress gain if stock rallies to SS) | Do-nothing @ SS: $-915
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $13 | 7d | 7 Aug 2026 | $0.31 | 138/200 | $18,334 | $18,423 | 77% | 82% | +$7,782 | -$25,822 | 234.7% | $-26,875 (vs do-nothing $-25,960) |
| $13 | 14d | 14 Aug 2026 | $0.49 | 174/200 | $18,270 | $18,307 | 71% | 78% | +$4,066 | -$29,426 | 267.5% | $-30,515 (vs do-nothing $-29,600) |
| $13 | 21d | 21 Aug 2026 | $0.66 | 194/200 | $18,291 | $18,300 | 69% | 77% | +$3,907 | -$29,511 | 268.3% | $-30,620 (vs do-nothing $-29,705) |
| $12.50 | 7d | 7 Aug 2026 | $0.44 | 97/200 | $18,291 | $18,439 | 66% | 74% | +$2,994 | -$21,739 | 197.6% | $-22,751 (vs do-nothing $-21,836) |
| $12.50 | 14d | 14 Aug 2026 | $0.61 | 140/200 | $18,300 | $18,386 | 64% | 73% | +$2,239 | -$28,996 | 263.6% | $-30,051 (vs do-nothing $-29,136) |
| $12.50 | 21d | 21 Aug 2026 | $0.84 | 152/200 | $18,240 | $18,309 | 63% | 73% | +$3,363 | -$27,986 | 254.4% | $-29,053 (vs do-nothing $-28,138) |
| $12 | 28d | 28 Aug 2026 | $1.12 | 152/200 | $18,240 | $18,309 | 57% | 70% | +$1,460 | -$31,330 | 284.8% | $-32,397 (vs do-nothing $-31,482) |
| $12 | 21d | 21 Aug 2026 | $1.04 | 123/200 | $18,274 | $18,384 | 56% | 70% | +$2,598 | -$26,336 | 239.4% | $-27,374 (vs do-nothing $-26,459) |
| $12 | 14d | 14 Aug 2026 | $0.85 | 100/200 | $18,214 | $18,357 | 56% | 70% | +$2,786 | -$23,312 | 211.9% | $-24,327 (vs do-nothing $-23,412) |
| $12 | 7d | 7 Aug 2026 | $0.63 | 68/200 | $18,360 | $18,549 | 55% | 69% | +$2,060 | -$17,348 | 157.7% | $-18,331 (vs do-nothing $-17,416) |
Income/mo = FIGHT leg gross, DTE-prorated. Net/mo = FIGHT + conservative CC gross minus hedge cost. POP (mid) = probability stock closes at or below (strike + mid premium) at expiry, per-strike chain IV when available. Survival = CC expires fully worthless. EV/mo = premium minus expected buyback, monthly, with realized vol = IV x 85% (variance risk premium 15%). Survival, POP and touch use vol x 1.00 (raw implied: the VRP haircut is applied to the premium edge but NOT to risk, because understating the edge costs opportunity while understating breach odds costs capital; the risk-side haircut arms only from the graded ledger). Cap give-up @ SS = recovery mortgaged on a V-bounce to SS, net of premium. Total P&L @ SS = absolute position P&L if the stock closes at SS; "vs do-nothing" = opportunity cost against holding all 200 contracts at the conservative CC.