MARA-LC40 @ $11.73 UNDERWATER $28.82 (71.1% below BE SS)
⚠ EARNINGS · DO NOT SELL INCOME INTO IT
MARA reports 2026-08-06 (Thu), in 2 days. The recommended CC (17d) expires on/after it, so selling now holds a short call through the earnings gap, a report can blow past your strike overnight and cap you at a loss. No priced expiry closes before the print, so waiting for it is the only clean option.
200 contracts (20,000 sh) | BE SS: $40.55 | CC-SS: $15.04 (banked floor $14.76) | IV: HIGH | Accounts: Main:1299
LC: $40 exp 2027-01-15 (entry $0.557/sh)
Economics
| Max Loss | $11,000 | (ND $0.55 + SW $0) x 20000 |
| Normal income ref | $33,529/mo | 95% ann ROI on ML |
| Hedge (static, never rolled) | $0/mo | HP expiry = SP LEAPS; decay ≈ $0/mo (info only, already in marks) |
| Unrealized P&L | $-6,000 | fortress legs from IBKR |
INCOME GOALPOSTS & VELOCITY
50% INCOME FLOOR
$16,765/mo
HEDGE COVER
$0/mo (static)
NORMAL INCOME
$33,529/mo (ATM CC, chain)
IC VELOCITY
0.3 mo to earn back $11,000
ML VELOCITY
0.3 mo to earn back $11,000
NOT a deep drawdown: a CC at CC-SS $15.04 (probe: $15C 17d) still earns $7,412/mo (22% of normal). Sell the normal CC at/above CC-SS; a FIGHT CC below it is not needed here.
🏦 CAMPAIGN LEDGER , realized CC income since 2026-07-16; banked cash shrinks the hole (shown as an info-only banked floor, the recommended CC-SS stays the pure recovery strike; seeded from open positions, reconciled from IBKR executions nightly)
Banked since 2026-07-16
$714
Hole (after banked)
$5,286
was $6,000 · 12% earned back
CC-SS · banked floor (info)
$15.04 → $14.76
TECHNICALS (cc_timing weekly gate + daily trigger)
WEEKLYNEUTRAL · %B 46 (live) · RSI 49 · MACD bearish, hist falling
DAILYMIXED (provisional) · RSI 47 · %B 45 · hist rising (nightly)
LEVELSUpper BB (CC ceiling) $15.55 (+33%) · daily UBB $13.25 · 1-wk expected move ±$2 (chain IV)
SETUPNo tilt: engine default. (advisory; floors and picks are chain-only)
⚠ Next earnings 2026-08-06: candidates whose expiry crosses it are flagged in the spectrum; EV is unreliable across earnings.
NOT a deep drawdown. A CC at/above CC-SS $15.04 keeps this fortress whole if assigned, so there is no need to FIGHT below it. Three income options to consider, richer → safer, all at/above CC-SS. Click a card for its if-challenged roll menu.
💰 Richer · sell 200 × $15.50 28 Aug 2026 (24d) · more income, lower survivalroll menu if challenged ▾
Survival (stays ≤ $15.50)
87%
Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 200 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 12 of 24); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic
Buyback gross: $2.06/sh now → $1.46 mid-life → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.04/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$1.42/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (200 ct) | POP / surv
of new CC |
|---|
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP.
Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened.
🎯 Recommended · sell 200 × $16 21 Aug 2026 (17d) · richest strike still ≥80% survivalroll menu if challenged ▾
Survival (stays ≤ $16)
93%
Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 200 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 8 of 17); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic
Buyback gross: $1.87/sh now → $1.33 mid-life (likely $1.03–$1.64) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.10/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$1.23/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours
📊 Across 313 simulated challenges: the $16 strike is typically first touched on day 11 of 17, at $16 (overshoots $0.49). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (200 ct) | POP / surv
of new CC |
|---|
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$16 | 28 Aug 2026 | 16d left | +$0.36/sh | +$7,182 cycle +$9,182 [+$6,441…+$11,417] · 100% credit | 68% surv 53% |
| SS $41 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder |
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$16 | 28 Aug 2026 | 16d left | +$0.18/sh | +$3,618 cycle +$5,618 [+$2,624…+$7,622] · 94% credit | 68% surv 55% |
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP.
Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened.
🛡 Safer · sell 200 × $17 7 Aug 2026 (3d) · higher survival, lighter premiumroll menu if challenged ▾
Survival (stays ≤ $17)
99%
Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 200 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 1 of 3); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic
Buyback gross: $1.15/sh now → $0.82 mid-life → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.01/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.81/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (200 ct) | POP / surv
of new CC |
|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$17 | 14 Aug 2026 | 8d left | +$0.62/sh | +$12,436 cycle +$12,636 | 70% surv 54% |
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$18 | 14 Aug 2026 | 8d left | +$0.04/sh | +$781 cycle +$981 | 76% surv 68% |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$19 | 21 Aug 2026 | 16d left | +$0.08/sh | +$1,543 cycle +$1,743 | 78% surv 73% |
| SS $41 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder |
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP.
Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened.
⚔ FIGHT CC options · full candidate scan (18 clear the floor), click to expand
Every eligible strike x expiry in the 3-45 DTE band (4 expiries scanned, 18 clear the income floor), each sized to the minimum contracts that clear it. Sorted by survival (safest first): the primary 🎯 is the safest; rows below trade safety for income.
Fortress delta: 0.073 (IBKR) | Recovery@SS: +$4,831 (un-capped fortress gain if stock rallies to SS) | Do-nothing @ SS: $-969
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|
| $13.50 | 3d | 7 Aug 2026 | $0.12 | 140/200 | $16,800 | $16,906 | 89% | 90% | +$9,214 | -$19,867 | 180.6% | $-20,976 (vs do-nothing $-20,007) |
| $13 | 3d | 7 Aug 2026 | $0.19 | 89/200 | $16,910 | $17,106 | 82% | 85% | +$7,272 | -$16,457 | 149.6% | $-17,515 (vs do-nothing $-16,546) |
| $13.50 | 10d | 14 Aug 2026 | $0.28 | 200/200 | $16,800 | $16,800 | 81% | 84% | +$5,388 | -$25,181 | 228.9% | $-26,350 (vs do-nothing $-25,381) |
| $13 | 10d | 14 Aug 2026 | $0.39 | 144/200 | $16,848 | $16,947 | 75% | 80% | +$4,520 | -$23,747 | 215.9% | $-24,859 (vs do-nothing $-23,891) |
| $12.50 | 3d | 7 Aug 2026 | $0.33 | 51/200 | $16,830 | $17,093 | 72% | 79% | +$6,252 | -$11,266 | 102.4% | $-12,286 (vs do-nothing $-11,317) |
| $13 | 17d | 21 Aug 2026 | $0.58 | 164/200 | $16,786 | $16,849 | 72% | 79% | +$4,689 | -$23,929 | 217.5% | $-25,062 (vs do-nothing $-24,093) |
| $13 | 24d | 28 Aug 2026 | $0.72 | 187/200 | $16,830 | $16,853 | 70% | 77% | +$3,765 | -$24,667 | 224.2% | $-25,822 (vs do-nothing $-24,854) |
| $12.50 | 10d | 14 Aug 2026 | $0.54 | 104/200 | $16,848 | $17,017 | 67% | 76% | +$3,760 | -$20,790 | 189.0% | $-21,863 (vs do-nothing $-20,894) |
| $12.50 | 17d | 21 Aug 2026 | $0.73 | 131/200 | $16,876 | $16,998 | 66% | 75% | +$3,816 | -$23,699 | 215.4% | $-24,799 (vs do-nothing $-23,830) |
| $12.50 | 24d | 28 Aug 2026 | $0.79 | 170/200 | $16,788 | $16,840 | 64% | 73% | $-406 | -$29,734 | 270.3% | $-30,873 (vs do-nothing $-29,904) |
| $12 | 3d | 7 Aug 2026 | $0.51 | 33/200 | $16,830 | $17,125 | 60% | 72% | +$4,560 | -$8,346 | 75.9% | $-9,348 (vs do-nothing $-8,379) |
| $12 | 24d | 28 Aug 2026 | $0.99 | 136/200 | $16,830 | $16,943 | 59% | 70% | $-172 | -$27,867 | 253.3% | $-28,972 (vs do-nothing $-28,003) |
| $12 | 10d | 14 Aug 2026 | $0.78 | 72/200 | $16,848 | $17,074 | 59% | 72% | +$3,858 | -$16,265 | 147.9% | $-17,306 (vs do-nothing $-16,337) |
Show 5 more candidates (lower strikes: more income, lower survival)
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|
| $12 | 17d | 21 Aug 2026 | $0.96 | 99/200 | $16,772 | $16,950 | 58% | 72% | +$3,614 | -$20,583 | 187.1% | $-21,651 (vs do-nothing $-20,682) |
| $11.50 | 24d | 28 Aug 2026 | $1.34 | 101/200 | $16,918 | $17,092 | 53% | 68% | +$1,452 | -$22,211 | 201.9% | $-23,280 (vs do-nothing $-22,312) |
| $11.50 | 17d | 21 Aug 2026 | $1.18 | 81/200 | $16,867 | $17,077 | 51% | 69% | +$2,756 | -$19,109 | 173.7% | $-20,158 (vs do-nothing $-19,190) |
| $11.50 | 10d | 14 Aug 2026 | $0.99 | 57/200 | $16,929 | $17,181 | 49% | 68% | +$2,603 | -$14,530 | 132.1% | $-15,555 (vs do-nothing $-14,587) |
| $11.50 | 3d | 7 Aug 2026 | $0.76 | 23/200 | $17,480 | $17,792 | 46% | 67% | +$3,313 | -$6,392 | 58.1% | $-7,384 (vs do-nothing $-6,415) |
Income/mo = FIGHT leg gross, DTE-prorated. Net/mo = FIGHT + conservative CC gross minus hedge cost. POP (mid) = probability stock closes at or below (strike + mid premium) at expiry, per-strike chain IV when available. Survival = CC expires fully worthless. EV/mo = premium minus expected buyback, monthly, with realized vol = IV x 85% (variance risk premium 15%). Survival, POP and touch use vol x 1.00 (raw implied: the VRP haircut is applied to the premium edge but NOT to risk, because understating the edge costs opportunity while understating breach odds costs capital; the risk-side haircut arms only from the graded ledger). Cap give-up @ SS = recovery mortgaged on a V-bounce to SS, net of premium. Total P&L @ SS = absolute position P&L if the stock closes at SS; "vs do-nothing" = opportunity cost against holding all 200 contracts at the conservative CC.