200 contracts (20,000 sh) | BE SS: $40.55 | CC-SS: $15.44 (banked floor $15.18) | IV: HIGH | Accounts: Main:1299
| Max Loss | $11,000 | (ND $0.55 + SW $0) x 20000 |
| Normal income ref | $33,004/mo | 95% ann ROI on ML |
| Hedge (static, never rolled) | $0/mo | HP expiry = SP LEAPS; decay ≈ $0/mo (info only, already in marks) |
| Unrealized P&L | $-7,300 | fortress legs from IBKR |
Each Friday gets its own recommended pick and full income ladder (safest strike per income rung, sized across your 200 contracts). The master ranks the two by E[net]/mo to pick one grand pick; both are shown here so you can choose the tenor that fits your roll cadence.
| Track | Expiry | Sell | Survival | Income/mo | E[net]/mo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| THIS FRIDAY 🏆 | 7 Aug 2026 · 2d | 158 × $13.50 | 90% | $16,590 | $15,169 |
| NEXT FRIDAY | 14 Aug 2026 · 9d | 155 × $13 | 77% | $16,533 | $1,890 |
| Rung | Sell | Expiry | DTE | OTM | Survival | Touch odds | FIGHT edge | Per cycle | Income/mo | Δ vs pick | Cap give-up | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| ▸ | 33% normal | 182 × $14 | 7 Aug | 2d | 20.7% | 94%hist 99% | 12%hist 6% | +27pp | $728 | $10,920 | -$5,670 | $25,497 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 182 × $14 20.7% OTM over spot $11.60 7 Aug 2026 (2d, $0.05 mid) = $728 credit for the 2d cycle → $10,920/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $14) 94% Breach risk 6% POP (stays ≤ $14.05) 94% EV / mo +$5,265 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +27pp 96% whole by 9mo vs 69% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~0.5/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $8,772/mo median; plan ~$5,965/mo after 68% keep · $5,710 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~0.6 mo [0.3-1.3], measured ONLY among the 96% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 5% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$8,064 Free roll-up +$1/wk Safest escape (by 28 Aug 2026) $17 @ 85% POP 82% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 182 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 1 of 2); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $0.68/sh now → $0.48 mid-life (likely $0.53–$1.10) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.04/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.44/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 149 simulated challenges: the $14 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 2, at $15 (overshoots $0.68). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $14 is $1 below CC-SS $15.44: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.01/sh (~25% of the $0.04 collected) or spot ≥ $14.05 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $14)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $13.02 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.07 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $15.44, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-7,300 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$5,377 − CC assignment net of premium (182 × $14): -$25,497 + Conservative CC premium (18 × $26): +$18 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-27,402 ($-20,102 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-1,723 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-25,679, the opportunity cost of earning $10,920/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $15.54 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$27,300, position total $-29,066 ($-21,766 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🎯 50% normal | 158 × $13.50 | 7 Aug | 2d | 16.4% | 90%hist 99% | 20%hist 6% | +35pp | $1,106 | $16,590 | — | $29,561 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 158 × $13.50 16.4% OTM over spot $11.60 7 Aug 2026 (2d, $0.08 mid) = $1,106 credit for the 2d cycle → $16,590/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $13.50) 90% Breach risk 10% POP (stays ≤ $13.58) 91% EV / mo +$6,912 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +35pp 100% whole by 9mo vs 65% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~0.4/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $13,689/mo median; plan ~$9,308/mo after 68% keep · $6,547 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~0.5 mo [0.3-0.8], measured ONLY among the 100% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 8% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$6,157 Free roll-up +$1/wk Safest escape (by 28 Aug 2026) $17 @ 85% POP 83% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 158 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 1 of 2); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $0.65/sh now → $0.46 mid-life (likely $0.49–$0.93) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.07/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.39/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 255 simulated challenges: the $14 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 2, at $14 (overshoots $0.59). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $13.50 is $2 below CC-SS $15.44: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.02/sh (~25% of the $0.07 collected) or spot ≥ $13.58 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $14)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $13.02 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.07 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $15.44, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-7,300 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$5,377 − CC assignment net of premium (158 × $13.50): -$29,561 + Conservative CC premium (42 × $26): +$42 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-31,441 ($-24,141 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-1,723 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-29,719, the opportunity cost of earning $16,590/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $15.54 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$31,126, position total $-32,868 ($-25,568 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🛡 safe yield | 200 × $13.50 | 7 Aug | 2d | 16.4% | 90%hist 99% | 20%hist 6% | +37pp | $1,400 | $21,000 | +$4,410 | $37,419 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 200 × $13.50 16.4% OTM over spot $11.60 7 Aug 2026 (2d, $0.08 mid) = $1,400 credit for the 2d cycle → $21,000/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $13.50) 90% Breach risk 10% POP (stays ≤ $13.58) 91% EV / mo +$8,749 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +37pp 100% whole by 9mo vs 62% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~0.3/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $17,625/mo median; plan ~$11,985/mo after 68% keep · $6,647 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~0.4 mo [0.2-0.6], measured ONLY among the 100% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 8% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$7,793 Free roll-up +$1/wk Safest escape (by 28 Aug 2026) $17 @ 85% POP 83% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 200 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 1 of 2); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $0.65/sh now → $0.46 mid-life (likely $0.48–$0.93) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.07/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.39/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 251 simulated challenges: the $14 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 2, at $14 (overshoots $0.58). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $13.50 is $2 below CC-SS $15.44: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.02/sh (~25% of the $0.07 collected) or spot ≥ $13.58 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $14)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $13.02 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.07 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $15.44, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-7,300 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$5,377 − CC assignment net of premium (200 × $13.50): -$37,419 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-39,341 ($-32,041 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-1,723 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-37,619, the opportunity cost of earning $21,000/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $15.54 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$39,400, position total $-41,184 ($-33,884 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 100% normal | 184 × $13 | 7 Aug | 2d | 12.1% | 85%hist 95% | 32%hist 22% | +33pp | $2,208 | $33,120 | +$16,530 | $42,705 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 184 × $13 12.1% OTM over spot $11.60 7 Aug 2026 (2d, $0.14 mid) = $2,208 credit for the 2d cycle → $33,120/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $13) 85% Breach risk 15% POP (stays ≤ $13.13) 87% EV / mo +$11,010 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +33pp 100% whole by 9mo vs 67% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~0.3/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $29,950/mo median; plan ~$20,366/mo after 68% keep · $7,969 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~0.3 mo [0.2-0.4], measured ONLY among the 100% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 17% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$5,827 Free roll-up +$1/wk Safest escape (by 28 Aug 2026) $16 @ 86% POP 84% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 184 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 1 of 2); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $0.62/sh now → $0.44 mid-life (likely $0.50–$0.93) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.12/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.32/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 512 simulated challenges: the $13 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 2, at $14 (overshoots $0.58). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $13 is $2 below CC-SS $15.44: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.03/sh (~25% of the $0.12 collected) or spot ≥ $13.13 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $13)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $13.02 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.07 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $15.44, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-7,300 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$5,377 − CC assignment net of premium (184 × $13): -$42,705 + Conservative CC premium (16 × $26): +$16 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-44,612 ($-37,312 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-1,723 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-42,889, the opportunity cost of earning $33,120/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $15.54 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$44,528, position total $-46,296 ($-38,996 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Rung | Sell | Expiry | DTE | OTM | Survival | Touch odds | FIGHT edge | Per cycle | Income/mo | Δ vs pick | Cap give-up | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| ▸ | 🛡 safe yield | 200 × $14.50 | 14 Aug | 9d | 25.0% | 91%hist 99% | 18%hist 6% | +38pp | $2,000 | $6,667 | -$9,867 | $16,819 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 200 × $14.50 25.0% OTM over spot $11.60 14 Aug 2026 (9d, $0.14 mid) = $2,000 credit for the 9d cycle → $6,667/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $14.50) 91% Breach risk 9% POP (stays ≤ $14.64) 92% EV / mo +$2,903 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +38pp 98% whole by 9mo vs 60% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~0.2/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $5,679/mo median; plan ~$3,862/mo after 68% keep · $5,895 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~0.9 mo [0.6-1.8], measured ONLY among the 98% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 13% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$13,979 Free roll-up +$0/wk Safest escape (by 28 Aug 2026) $16 @ 79% POP 73% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 200 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 9); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $1.13/sh now → $0.80 mid-life (likely $0.69–$1.10) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.10/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.70/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 383 simulated challenges: the $14 strike is typically first touched on day 6 of 9, at $15 (overshoots $0.49). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $14.50 is $1 below CC-SS $15.44: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.03/sh (~25% of the $0.10 collected) or spot ≥ $14.64 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $14)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $13.02 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.07 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $15.44, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-7,300 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$5,377 − CC assignment net of premium (200 × $14.50): -$16,819 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-18,741 ($-11,441 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-1,723 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-17,019, the opportunity cost of earning $6,667/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $15.54 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$18,800, position total $-20,584 ($-13,284 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 33% normal ← lean | 149 × $13.50 | 14 Aug | 9d | 16.4% | 83%hist 95% | 36%hist 22% | +38pp | $3,278 | $10,927 | -$5,607 | $25,642 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 149 × $13.50 16.4% OTM over spot $11.60 14 Aug 2026 (9d, $0.26 mid) = $3,278 credit for the 9d cycle → $10,927/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $13.50) 83% Breach risk 17% POP (stays ≤ $13.76) 86% EV / mo +$3,518 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +38pp 100% whole by 9mo vs 62% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~0.3/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $10,950/mo median; plan ~$7,446/mo after 68% keep · $7,226 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~0.7 mo [0.4-1.1], measured ONLY among the 100% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 28% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$7,421 Free roll-up +$0/wk Safest escape (by 28 Aug 2026) $15 @ 80% POP 75% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 149 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 9); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $1.01/sh now → $0.72 mid-life (likely $0.71–$1.09) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.22/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.50/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 852 simulated challenges: the $14 strike is typically first touched on day 5 of 9, at $14 (overshoots $0.46). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $13.50 is $2 below CC-SS $15.44: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.06/sh (~25% of the $0.22 collected) or spot ≥ $13.76 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $14)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $13.02 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.07 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $15.44, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-7,300 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$5,377 − CC assignment net of premium (149 × $13.50): -$25,642 + Conservative CC premium (51 × $26): +$51 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-27,514 ($-20,214 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-1,723 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-25,791, the opportunity cost of earning $10,927/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $15.54 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$27,118, position total $-28,851 ($-21,551 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🎯 50% normal | 155 × $13 | 14 Aug | 9d | 12.1% | 77%hist 92% | 49%hist 32% | +46pp | $4,960 | $16,533 | — | $32,875 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 155 × $13 12.1% OTM over spot $11.60 14 Aug 2026 (9d, $0.34 mid) = $4,960 credit for the 9d cycle → $16,533/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $13) 77% Breach risk 23% POP (stays ≤ $13.35) 81% EV / mo +$4,507 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +46pp 100% whole by 9mo vs 54% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~0.2/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $18,834/mo median; plan ~$12,807/mo after 68% keep · $9,603 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~0.4 mo [0.2-0.6], measured ONLY among the 100% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 38% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$5,564 Free roll-up +$0/wk Safest escape (by 28 Aug 2026) $15 @ 83% POP 80% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 155 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 9); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $0.96/sh now → $0.68 mid-life (likely $0.74–$1.09) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.32/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.36/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 1,152 simulated challenges: the $13 strike is typically first touched on day 5 of 9, at $13 (overshoots $0.43). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $13 is $2 below CC-SS $15.44: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.08/sh (~25% of the $0.32 collected) or spot ≥ $13.35 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $13)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $13.02 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.07 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $15.44, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-7,300 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$5,377 − CC assignment net of premium (155 × $13): -$32,875 + Conservative CC premium (45 × $26): +$45 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-34,752 ($-27,452 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-1,723 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-33,030, the opportunity cost of earning $16,533/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $15.54 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$34,410, position total $-36,149 ($-28,849 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 100% normal | 171 × $12 | 14 Aug | 9d | 3.4% | 61%hist 78% | 83%hist 81% | +42pp | $9,918 | $33,060 | +$16,527 | $48,922 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 171 × $12 3.4% OTM over spot $11.60 14 Aug 2026 (9d, $0.61 mid) = $9,918 credit for the 9d cycle → $33,060/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $12) 61% Breach risk 39% POP (stays ≤ $12.62) 71% EV / mo +$3,534 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +42pp 100% whole by 9mo vs 58% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~0.2/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $78,055/mo median; plan ~$53,078/mo after 68% keep · $10,219 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~0.1 mo [0.0-0.3], measured ONLY among the 100% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 69% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$407 Free roll-up +$0/wk Safest escape (by 21 Aug 2026) $15 @ 91% POP 91% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 171 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 9); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $0.85/sh now → $0.60 mid-life (likely $0.81–$1.12) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.58/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.02/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 2,067 simulated challenges: the $12 strike is typically first touched on day 3 of 9, at $12 (overshoots $0.44). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $12 is $3 below CC-SS $15.44: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.14/sh (~25% of the $0.58 collected) or spot ≥ $12.62 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $12)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $13.02 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.07 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $15.44, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-7,300 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$5,377 − CC assignment net of premium (171 × $12): -$48,922 + Conservative CC premium (29 × $26): +$29 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-50,816 ($-43,516 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-1,723 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-49,093, the opportunity cost of earning $33,060/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $15.54 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$50,616, position total $-52,371 ($-45,071 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Every eligible strike x expiry in the 2-45 DTE band (4 expiries scanned, 16 clear the income floor), each sized to the minimum contracts that clear it. Sorted by survival (safest first): the primary 🎯 is the safest; rows below trade safety for income.
Fortress delta: 0.070 (IBKR) | Recovery@SS: +$5,377 (un-capped fortress gain if stock rallies to SS) | Do-nothing @ SS: $-1,723
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $13.50 | 2d | 7 Aug 2026 | $0.07 | 158/200 | $16,590 | $16,669 | 90% | 91% | +$6,912 | -$29,561 | 268.7% | $-31,441 (vs do-nothing $-29,719) |
| $13 | 2d | 7 Aug 2026 | $0.12 | 92/200 | $16,560 | $16,762 | 85% | 87% | +$5,505 | -$21,353 | 194.1% | $-23,167 (vs do-nothing $-21,445) |
| $13 | 9d | 14 Aug 2026 | $0.32 | 155/200 | $16,533 | $16,618 | 77% | 81% | +$4,507 | -$32,875 | 298.9% | $-34,752 (vs do-nothing $-33,030) |
| $12.50 | 2d | 7 Aug 2026 | $0.21 | 53/200 | $16,695 | $16,971 | 76% | 80% | +$4,438 | -$14,474 | 131.6% | $-16,250 (vs do-nothing $-14,527) |
| $13 | 16d | 21 Aug 2026 | $0.47 | 188/200 | $16,568 | $16,590 | 74% | 79% | +$3,774 | -$37,054 | 336.9% | $-38,964 (vs do-nothing $-37,242) |
| $12.50 | 9d | 14 Aug 2026 | $0.43 | 116/200 | $16,627 | $16,784 | 70% | 77% | +$2,921 | -$29,127 | 264.8% | $-30,965 (vs do-nothing $-29,243) |
| $12.50 | 16d | 21 Aug 2026 | $0.60 | 147/200 | $16,538 | $16,637 | 68% | 76% | +$2,938 | -$34,412 | 312.8% | $-36,281 (vs do-nothing $-34,559) |
| $12.50 | 23d | 28 Aug 2026 | $0.72 | 176/200 | $16,529 | $16,574 | 66% | 75% | +$1,848 | -$39,089 | 355.4% | $-40,987 (vs do-nothing $-39,265) |
| $12 | 2d | 7 Aug 2026 | $0.36 | 31/200 | $16,740 | $17,057 | 64% | 73% | +$3,503 | -$9,551 | 86.8% | $-11,304 (vs do-nothing $-9,582) |
| $12 | 9d | 14 Aug 2026 | $0.58 | 86/200 | $16,627 | $16,840 | 61% | 71% | +$1,777 | -$24,604 | 223.7% | $-26,413 (vs do-nothing $-24,690) |
| $12 | 16d | 21 Aug 2026 | $0.77 | 115/200 | $16,603 | $16,762 | 60% | 71% | +$521 | -$30,716 | 279.2% | $-32,553 (vs do-nothing $-30,831) |
| $12 | 23d | 28 Aug 2026 | $0.95 | 134/200 | $16,604 | $16,728 | 60% | 72% | +$2,319 | -$33,379 | 303.4% | $-35,235 (vs do-nothing $-33,513) |
| $11.50 | 23d | 28 Aug 2026 | $1.10 | 116/200 | $16,643 | $16,801 | 54% | 69% | +$1,010 | -$32,955 | 299.6% | $-34,793 (vs do-nothing $-33,071) |
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $11.50 | 16d | 21 Aug 2026 | $0.98 | 90/200 | $16,538 | $16,744 | 53% | 67% | +$280 | -$26,648 | 242.3% | $-28,461 (vs do-nothing $-26,738) |
| $11.50 | 9d | 14 Aug 2026 | $0.83 | 60/200 | $16,600 | $16,862 | 52% | 67% | +$1,884 | -$18,666 | 169.7% | $-20,448 (vs do-nothing $-18,726) |
| $11.50 | 2d | 7 Aug 2026 | $0.54 | 21/200 | $17,010 | $17,346 | 49% | 66% | +$1,495 | -$7,142 | 64.9% | $-8,886 (vs do-nothing $-7,163) |
Income/mo = FIGHT leg gross, DTE-prorated. Net/mo = FIGHT + conservative CC gross minus hedge cost. POP (mid) = probability stock closes at or below (strike + mid premium) at expiry, per-strike chain IV when available. Survival = CC expires fully worthless. EV/mo = premium minus expected buyback, monthly, with realized vol = IV x 85% (variance risk premium 15%). Survival, POP and touch use vol x 1.00 (raw implied: the VRP haircut is applied to the premium edge but NOT to risk, because understating the edge costs opportunity while understating breach odds costs capital; the risk-side haircut arms only from the graded ledger). Cap give-up @ SS = recovery mortgaged on a V-bounce to SS, net of premium. Total P&L @ SS = absolute position P&L if the stock closes at SS; "vs do-nothing" = opportunity cost against holding all 200 contracts at the conservative CC.