200 contracts (20,000 sh) | BE SS: $40.55 | CC-SS: $14.92 (banked floor $14.64) | IV: HIGH | Accounts: Main:1299
| Max Loss | $11,000 | (ND $0.55 + SW $0) x 20000 |
| Normal income ref | $30,800/mo | 95% ann ROI on ML |
| Hedge (static, never rolled) | $0/mo | HP expiry = SP LEAPS; decay ≈ $0/mo (info only, already in marks) |
| Unrealized P&L | $-7,000 | fortress legs from IBKR |
Each Friday gets its own recommended pick and full income ladder (safest strike per income rung, sized across your 200 contracts). The master ranks the two by E[net]/mo to pick one grand pick; both are shown here so you can choose the tenor that fits your roll cadence.
| Track | Expiry | Sell | Survival | Income/mo | E[net]/mo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NEXT FRIDAY 🏆 | 14 Aug 2026 · 8d | 187 × $12.50 | 86% | $15,428 | $3,493 |
| Rung | Sell | Expiry | DTE | OTM | Survival | Touch odds | FIGHT edge | Per cycle | Income/mo | Δ vs pick | Cap give-up | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| ▸ | 🛡 safe yield | 200 × $13.50 | 14 Aug | 8d | 24.7% | 91%hist 99% | 18%hist 6% | +41pp | $1,800 | $6,750 | -$8,678 | $26,606 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 200 × $13.50 24.7% OTM over spot $10.83 14 Aug 2026 (8d, $0.11 mid) = $1,800 credit for the 8d cycle → $6,750/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $13.50) 91% Breach risk 9% POP (stays ≤ $13.61) 92% EV / mo +$2,978 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +41pp 98% whole by 9mo vs 56% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~0.2/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $5,640/mo median; plan ~$3,835/mo after 68% keep · $6,539 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~1.1 mo [0.6-1.8], measured ONLY among the 98% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 7% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$13,792 Free roll-up +$0/wk Safest escape (by 28 Aug 2026) $15 @ 76% POP 68% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 200 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 8); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $1.10/sh now → $0.78 mid-life (likely $0.61–$1.01) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.09/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.69/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 218 simulated challenges: the $14 strike is typically first touched on day 6 of 8, at $14 (overshoots $0.39). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $13.50 is $1 below CC-SS $14.92: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.02/sh (~25% of the $0.09 collected) or spot ≥ $13.61 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $14)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $12.95 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.06 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $14.92, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-7,000 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$4,908 − CC assignment net of premium (200 × $13.50): -$26,606 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-28,698 ($-21,698 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-1,892 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-26,806, the opportunity cost of earning $6,750/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $15.54 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$39,000, position total $-40,348 ($-33,348 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 33% normal | 181 × $13 | 14 Aug | 8d | 20.0% | 88%hist 95% | 25%hist 18% | +44pp | $2,715 | $10,181 | -$5,246 | $32,043 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 181 × $13 20.0% OTM over spot $10.83 14 Aug 2026 (8d, $0.16 mid) = $2,715 credit for the 8d cycle → $10,181/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $13) 88% Breach risk 12% POP (stays ≤ $13.16) 89% EV / mo +$4,713 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +44pp 100% whole by 9mo vs 56% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~0.2/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $9,250/mo median; plan ~$6,290/mo after 68% keep · $6,215 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~0.8 mo [0.5-1.1], measured ONLY among the 100% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 14% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$10,590 Free roll-up +$0/wk Safest escape (by 28 Aug 2026) $15 @ 78% POP 73% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 181 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 8); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $1.04/sh now → $0.74 mid-life (likely $0.61–$1.04) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.15/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.59/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 413 simulated challenges: the $13 strike is typically first touched on day 6 of 8, at $13 (overshoots $0.38). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $13 is $2 below CC-SS $14.92: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.04/sh (~25% of the $0.15 collected) or spot ≥ $13.16 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $13)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $12.95 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.06 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $14.92, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-7,000 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$4,908 − CC assignment net of premium (181 × $13): -$32,043 + Conservative CC premium (19 × $26): +$19 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-34,115 ($-27,115 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-1,892 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-32,224, the opportunity cost of earning $10,181/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $15.54 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$43,259, position total $-44,588 ($-37,588 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🎯 50% normal | 187 × $12.50 | 14 Aug | 8d | 15.4% | 86%hist 95% | 30%hist 22% | +46pp | $4,114 | $15,428 | — | $41,146 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 187 × $12.50 15.4% OTM over spot $10.83 14 Aug 2026 (8d, $0.23 mid) = $4,114 credit for the 8d cycle → $15,428/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $12.50) 86% Breach risk 14% POP (stays ≤ $12.73) 88% EV / mo +$9,291 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +46pp 100% whole by 9mo vs 54% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~0.1/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $15,652/mo median; plan ~$10,643/mo after 68% keep · $8,191 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~0.5 mo [0.3-0.6], measured ONLY among the 100% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 22% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$8,822 Free roll-up +$0/wk Safest escape (by 28 Aug 2026) $14 @ 79% POP 74% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 187 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 8); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $0.98/sh now → $0.69 mid-life (likely $0.66–$1.08) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.22/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.47/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 656 simulated challenges: the $12 strike is typically first touched on day 5 of 8, at $13 (overshoots $0.38). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $12.50 is $2 below CC-SS $14.92: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.06/sh (~25% of the $0.22 collected) or spot ≥ $12.73 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $12)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $12.95 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.06 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $14.92, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-7,000 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$4,908 − CC assignment net of premium (187 × $12.50): -$41,146 + Conservative CC premium (13 × $26): +$13 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-43,225 ($-36,225 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-1,892 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-41,333, the opportunity cost of earning $15,428/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $15.54 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$52,734, position total $-54,069 ($-47,069 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 100% normal | 187 × $11.50 | 14 Aug | 8d | 6.2% | 69%hist 78% | 66%hist 55% | +43pp | $8,228 | $30,855 | +$15,428 | $55,732 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 187 × $11.50 6.2% OTM over spot $10.83 14 Aug 2026 (8d, $0.47 mid) = $8,228 credit for the 8d cycle → $30,855/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $11.50) 69% Breach risk 31% POP (stays ≤ $11.97) 78% EV / mo +$11,293 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +43pp 100% whole by 9mo vs 57% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~0.2/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $32,769/mo median; plan ~$22,283/mo after 68% keep · $8,424 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~0.3 mo [0.1-0.3], measured ONLY among the 100% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 52% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$3,155 Free roll-up +$0/wk Safest escape (by 28 Aug 2026) $15 @ 90% POP 88% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 187 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 8); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $0.86/sh now → $0.61 mid-life (likely $0.76–$1.07) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.44/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.17/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 1,549 simulated challenges: the $12 strike is typically first touched on day 3 of 8, at $12 (overshoots $0.35). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $11.50 is $3 below CC-SS $14.92: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.11/sh (~25% of the $0.44 collected) or spot ≥ $11.97 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $12)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $12.95 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.06 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $14.92, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-7,000 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$4,908 − CC assignment net of premium (187 × $11.50): -$55,732 + Conservative CC premium (13 × $26): +$13 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-57,811 ($-50,811 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-1,892 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-55,919, the opportunity cost of earning $30,855/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $15.54 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$67,320, position total $-68,655 ($-61,655 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Every eligible strike x expiry in the 4-45 DTE band (3 expiries scanned, 10 clear the income floor), each sized to the minimum contracts that clear it. Sorted by survival (safest first): the primary 🎯 is the safest; rows below trade safety for income.
Fortress delta: 0.060 (IBKR) | Recovery@SS: +$4,908 (un-capped fortress gain if stock rallies to SS) | Do-nothing @ SS: $-1,892
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $12.50 | 8d | 14 Aug 2026 | $0.22 | 187/200 | $15,428 | $15,454 | 86% | 88% | +$9,291 | -$41,146 | 374.1% | $-43,225 (vs do-nothing $-41,333) |
| $12 | 8d | 14 Aug 2026 | $0.32 | 129/200 | $15,480 | $15,622 | 78% | 83% | +$7,710 | -$33,544 | 304.9% | $-35,565 (vs do-nothing $-33,673) |
| $12 | 15d | 21 Aug 2026 | $0.48 | 161/200 | $15,456 | $15,534 | 73% | 79% | +$4,934 | -$39,289 | 357.2% | $-41,342 (vs do-nothing $-39,450) |
| $12 | 22d | 28 Aug 2026 | $0.60 | 189/200 | $15,464 | $15,486 | 71% | 78% | +$3,583 | -$43,854 | 398.7% | $-45,935 (vs do-nothing $-44,043) |
| $11.50 | 8d | 14 Aug 2026 | $0.44 | 94/200 | $15,510 | $15,722 | 69% | 78% | +$5,677 | -$28,015 | 254.7% | $-30,001 (vs do-nothing $-28,109) |
| $11.50 | 15d | 21 Aug 2026 | $0.59 | 131/200 | $15,458 | $15,596 | 66% | 75% | +$3,274 | -$37,077 | 337.1% | $-39,100 (vs do-nothing $-37,208) |
| $11.50 | 22d | 28 Aug 2026 | $0.70 | 162/200 | $15,464 | $15,540 | 64% | 74% | +$1,868 | -$44,069 | 400.6% | $-46,123 (vs do-nothing $-44,231) |
| $11 | 22d | 28 Aug 2026 | $0.86 | 132/200 | $15,480 | $15,616 | 57% | 71% | +$919 | -$40,396 | 367.2% | $-42,420 (vs do-nothing $-40,528) |
| $11 | 8d | 14 Aug 2026 | $0.60 | 69/200 | $15,525 | $15,787 | 57% | 72% | +$3,690 | -$22,910 | 208.3% | $-24,871 (vs do-nothing $-22,979) |
| $11 | 15d | 21 Aug 2026 | $0.77 | 100/200 | $15,400 | $15,600 | 57% | 71% | +$2,309 | -$31,503 | 286.4% | $-33,495 (vs do-nothing $-31,603) |
Income/mo = FIGHT leg gross, DTE-prorated. Net/mo = FIGHT + conservative CC gross minus hedge cost. POP (mid) = probability stock closes at or below (strike + mid premium) at expiry, per-strike chain IV when available. Survival = CC expires fully worthless. EV/mo = premium minus expected buyback, monthly, with realized vol = IV x 85% (variance risk premium 15%). Survival, POP and touch use vol x 1.00 (raw implied: the VRP haircut is applied to the premium edge but NOT to risk, because understating the edge costs opportunity while understating breach odds costs capital; the risk-side haircut arms only from the graded ledger). Cap give-up @ SS = recovery mortgaged on a V-bounce to SS, net of premium. Total P&L @ SS = absolute position P&L if the stock closes at SS; "vs do-nothing" = opportunity cost against holding all 200 contracts at the conservative CC.