FORTRESS FIGHT: MARA-STK-1299 @ $7.10

BE SS: $14.75 | CC-SS: $14.76 | 100 contracts (10,000 sh) | ⌂ PORTFOLIO

MARA-STK-1299 @ $7.10 UNDERWATER $7.65 (51.9% below BE SS)

⚠ EARNINGS · DO NOT SELL INCOME INTO IT

MARA reports 2026-11-04 (Wed), in 6 days. The recommended CC (8d) expires on/after it, so selling now holds a short call through the earnings gap, a report can blow past your strike overnight and cap you at a loss. No priced expiry closes before the print, so waiting for it is the only clean option.

100 contracts (10,000 sh) | BE SS: $14.75 | CC-SS: $14.76 | IV: HIGH | Accounts: Main:1299

LC: $0 exp 2099-12-31 (entry $14.752/sh)

Economics

Max Loss	$147,500	(ND $14.75 + SW $0) x 10000
Normal income ref	$11,200/mo	95% ann ROI on ML
Hedge rolling cost	$0/mo
Unrealized P&L	$-76,600	fortress legs from IBKR

INCOME GOALPOSTS & VELOCITY

50% INCOME FLOOR
$5,600/mo

HEDGE COVER
$0/mo

NORMAL INCOME
$11,200/mo (ATM CC, chain)

IC VELOCITY
13.2 mo to earn back $147,500

ML VELOCITY
13.2 mo to earn back $147,500

Deep drawdown confirmed: a CC at CC-SS $14.76 (probe: $15C 15d) brings only $200/mo (<20% of normal), so FIGHT below it is warranted.

🏦 Campaign ledger: seeded, nothing tracked yet. Open short calls and banked credits appear here from the next cycle on; the banked-floor (info) shows how far premium would ratchet the floor, but the recommended CC-SS stays the pure recovery strike.

TECHNICALS (cc_timing weekly gate + daily trigger)

WEEKLYOVERSOLD · %B 3 (live) · RSI 36 · MACD bearish, hist falling

DAILYFALLING (provisional) · RSI 30 · %B 27 · hist rising (nightly)

LEVELS20W MA (bounce target) $11.04 (+55%) · daily UBB $11.13 · 1-wk expected move ±$1 (chain IV)

SETUPSpring loaded, not ignited: 🎯 or 💎 at short DTE, normal tripwires. (advisory; floors and picks are chain-only)

⚠ Next earnings 2026-11-04: candidates whose expiry crosses it are flagged in the spectrum; EV is unreliable across earnings.

INTERPRETATION

Primary: 100 contracts at $8 / 8d. This is the safest strike (survival 79%, breach 21%) that still earns 50% of normal income ($5,600/mo); it brings $6,000/mo. The engine maximizes the odds the pullback never reaches your strike, rather than chasing the fattest near-ATM premium.

More income, less safety: the ladder tops out at 100 × $7/8d for $18,375/mo, but breach risk rises to 50% (+30pp vs the primary). The lower strike is hit by a smaller bounce.

More safety, less income: for just the hedge you can sit at 100 × $15/15d (99% survival, $200/mo).

Downside anchor: the primary mortgages $66,000 (45% of IC) ONLY on a full V-bounce all the way to SS $15, recoverable in 5.9 months of normal income. That is the rare tail; the frequent case is the strike holding. Surgical close on the 100 contracts realizes $-76,650 and cuts bleed by $0/mo.

📅 Two weekly tracks, this Friday & next Friday

Each Friday gets its own recommended pick and full income ladder (safest strike per income rung, sized across your 100 contracts). The master ranks the two by E[net]/mo to pick one grand pick; both are shown here so you can choose the tenor that fits your roll cadence.

🏆 Grand pick: NEXT FRIDAY · 6 Nov 2026 (8d) · sell 100 × $8, 79% survival, $6,000/mo (E[net] $2,334/mo). ⏸ WAIT: every listed weekly is open through the next earnings print, so nothing here is a sell-now suggestion; sell after the print.
This week's Friday is inside the pin/gamma window, so only the next weekly is shown.

Track	Expiry	Sell	Survival	Income/mo	E[net]/mo
NEXT FRIDAY 🏆 ⚡	6 Nov 2026 · 8d	100 × $8	79%	$6,000	$2,334

E[net] arithmetic on the grand pick: keep $1,600 with probability 68%; on the 32% touch you roll, paying $3,883 to close and taking $2,444 back from the best priced door (net cash $1,439) and parking about one cycle of income. Charging the FULL buyback with no door credit (the pre-2026-07-25 model) contradicted the campaign simulation, which prices the same event as a cash-neutral even roll.

📅 NEXT FRIDAY · 6 Nov 2026 · 8d · E[net] $2,334/mo 🏆 GRAND PICK

🎯 Engine pick: sell 100 × $8 (50% normal), 79% survival, breach 21%, $6,000/mo.
⚖️ Worth a safer step: the $9.50 rung (🛡 safe yield) lifts survival to 92% (breach 21% → 8%) for $4,400/mo less (73% income), and it still covers your hedge. The pick sits below the ~80% (≈1σ) comfort line; on a drawdown you are nursing back, dodging the frequent breach usually beats the extra premium. Lean: the safer $9.50 rung, unless you need the income to cover the hedge bleed, or you expect MARA to stay flat-to-down near term.

MARA spot $7.10 · click a rung to expand its decision panel

Rung

Sell

Expiry

DTE

OTM

Survival

Touch odds

FIGHT edge

Per cycle

Income/mo

Δ vs pick

Cap give-up

▸

🛡 safe yield ← lean

100 × $9.50

13 Nov

15d

33.8%

92%hist 95%

17%hist 13%

+3pp

$800

$1,600

-$4,400

$51,800

Sell 100 × $9.50 33.8% OTM over spot $7.10 13 Nov 2026 (15d, $0.09 mid)

= $800 credit for the 15d cycle → $1,600/mo projected

Survival (stays ≤ $9.50)

92%

Breach risk

POP (stays ≤ $9.59)

93%

EV / mo

+$705

📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion)

FIGHT'S EDGE

+3pp

30% whole by 9mo vs 27% doing nothing

FIRE DRILLS

~0.7/quarter

challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration)

BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING

$949/mo

median; plan ~$645/mo after 68% keep · $7,144 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole)

green: with FIGHT · grey: without

if it recovers, the typical trip is ~3.9 mo [2.2-5.5], measured ONLY among the 30% of futures that got whole

🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it)

Challenge odds (touch by expiry)

12%

Flat exit net (mid-life)

-$6,133

Free roll-up

+$0/wk

Safest escape (by 20 Nov 2026)

$10 @ 72% POP

61% survival

Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 100 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 7 of 15); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic

Buyback gross: $0.98/sh now → $0.69 mid-life (likely $0.54–$0.87) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.08/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.61/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours

📊 Across 354 simulated challenges: the $10 strike is typically first touched on day 11 of 15, at $10 (overshoots $0.30). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (100 ct)	POP / surv of new CC	If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$10	20 Nov 2026	14d left	+$0.23/sh	+$2,276 cycle +$3,076 [+$2,330…+$3,600] · 100% credit	70% surv 55%	-$49,524 NOT cap gain +$27,076
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)	~$10	20 Nov 2026	14d left	+$0.05/sh	+$516 cycle +$1,316 [+$285…+$1,470] · 88% credit	72% surv 61%	-$47,284 NOT cap gain +$29,316
Max even-money escape in the band	~$10	20 Nov 2026	14d left	+$0.05/sh	+$516 cycle +$1,316 [+$285…+$1,470] · 88% credit	72% surv 61%	-$47,284 NOT cap gain +$29,316
SS $15 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder

If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike.

POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP.

Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened.

More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stress

Income coverage

Gross FIGHT income	$1,600/mo
vs 50% target ($5,600/mo)	-71%
vs normal income ($11,200/mo)	14% covered
Net income (after hedge)	$1,600/mo

Downside budget

⚠ $9.50 is $5 below CC-SS $14.76: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.

Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)	-$51,800
… as % of IC ($147,500)	35.1%
… as % of ML ($147,500)	35.1%
Recovery months (at normal income)	4.6 mo
Surgical close (100 ct)	$-76,700

Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook

The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.02/sh (~25% of the $0.08 collected) or spot ≥ $9.59 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $10)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $11.13 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".

Spot \ Time	≥ 8d left	3-7d left	≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $9.40	Do nothing. Theta wins.	Do nothing.	Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike $9-9.59	Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.	★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.	Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven ≥ $9.59	Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.	Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.	Close today, or be assigned.

If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.00 (IBKR)

Scenario	Spot	CC leg net	Position total	vs today	vs do-nothing
at strike	$9.50 (1.6σ)	$800	$-51,800	+$24,800	+$700
+2.5%	$9.74 (1.8σ)	$-1,575	$-51,800	+$24,800	-$1,675
+5%	$9.97 (1.9σ)	$-3,950	$-51,800	+$24,800	-$4,050
SS (= V-bounce)	$14.75 (5.1σ)	$-51,700	$-51,800	+$24,800	-$49,300

V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $14.76, where you are whole again, by expiry)

Starting unrealized P&L: $-76,600

+ Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$76,600

− CC assignment net of premium (100 × $9.50): -$51,800

Total Position P&L @ SS: $-51,800 (+$24,800 vs today)

Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-2,500 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-49,300, the opportunity cost of earning $1,600/mo FIGHT income now)

BB-reversion stress (→ $11.04 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$14,600, position total $-51,800 (+$24,800 vs today)

▸

33% normal

100 × $8

6 Nov

12.7%

79%hist 83%

43%hist 40%

+6pp

$1,600

$6,000

+$0

$66,000

Sell 100 × $8 12.7% OTM over spot $7.10 6 Nov 2026 (8d, $0.17 mid)

= $1,600 credit for the 8d cycle → $6,000/mo projected

Survival (stays ≤ $8)

79%

Breach risk

21%

POP (stays ≤ $8.16)

83%

EV / mo

+$1,925

📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion)

FIGHT'S EDGE

+6pp

31% whole by 9mo vs 25% doing nothing

FIRE DRILLS

~3.3/quarter

challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration)

BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING

$2,656/mo

median; plan ~$1,806/mo after 68% keep · $20,380 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole)

green: with FIGHT · grey: without

if it recovers, the typical trip is ~4.0 mo [2.2-6.0], measured ONLY among the 31% of futures that got whole

🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it)

Challenge odds (touch by expiry)

32%

Flat exit net (mid-life)

-$2,283

Free roll-up

+$0/wk

Safest escape (by 20 Nov 2026)

$9 @ 82% POP

78% survival

Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 100 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 8); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic

Buyback gross: $0.55/sh now → $0.39 mid-life (likely $0.40–$0.63) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.16/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.23/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours

📊 Across 965 simulated challenges: the $8 strike is typically first touched on day 4 of 8, at $8 (overshoots $0.27). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (100 ct)	POP / surv of new CC	If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$8	13 Nov 2026	11d left	+$0.24/sh	+$2,444 cycle +$4,044 [+$2,237…+$2,921] · 100% credit	69% surv 54%	-$63,556 NOT cap gain +$13,044
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)	~$8	13 Nov 2026	11d left	+$0.07/sh	+$744 cycle +$2,344 [+$259…+$943] · 90% credit	73% surv 64%	-$61,256 NOT cap gain +$15,344
Max even-money escape in the band	~$9	20 Nov 2026	18d left	+$0.06/sh	+$631 cycle +$2,231 [-$149…+$858] · 66% credit	78% surv 71%	-$56,369 NOT cap gain +$20,231
SS $15 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)	~$9	20 Nov 2026	18d left	-$0.06/sh	-$640 cycle +$960 [-$1,673…-$546] · 12% credit	82% surv 78%	-$52,640 NOT cap gain +$23,960
budget: banked $1,600 debit $640 (40% used ≈ 0.5 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$960 cash · rolled 100 ct earn ≈ $5,404/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell

More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stress

Income coverage

Gross FIGHT income	$6,000/mo
vs 50% target ($5,600/mo)	+7%
vs normal income ($11,200/mo)	54% covered
Net income (after hedge)	$6,000/mo

Downside budget

⚠ $8 is $7 below CC-SS $14.76: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.

Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)	-$66,000
… as % of IC ($147,500)	44.7%
… as % of ML ($147,500)	44.7%
Recovery months (at normal income)	5.9 mo
Surgical close (100 ct)	$-76,650

Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook

The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.04/sh (~25% of the $0.16 collected) or spot ≥ $8.16 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $8)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $11.13 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".

Spot \ Time	≥ 5d left	3-4d left	≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $7.92	Do nothing. Theta wins.	Do nothing.	Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike $8-8.16	Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.	★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.	Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven ≥ $8.16	Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.	Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.	Close today, or be assigned.

If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.00 (IBKR)

Scenario	Spot	CC leg net	Position total	vs today	vs do-nothing
at strike	$8.00 (≤1σ, normal week)	$1,600	$-66,000	+$10,600	+$1,500
+2.5%	$8.20 (≤1σ, normal week)	$-400	$-66,000	+$10,600	-$500
+5%	$8.40 (1.2σ)	$-2,400	$-66,000	+$10,600	-$2,500
SS (= V-bounce)	$14.75 (7.0σ)	$-65,900	$-66,000	+$10,600	-$63,500

V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $14.76, where you are whole again, by expiry)

Starting unrealized P&L: $-76,600

+ Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$76,600

− CC assignment net of premium (100 × $8): -$66,000

Total Position P&L @ SS: $-66,000 (+$10,600 vs today)

Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-2,500 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-63,500, the opportunity cost of earning $6,000/mo FIGHT income now)

BB-reversion stress (→ $11.04 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$28,800, position total $-66,000 (+$10,600 vs today)

▸

🎯 50% normal

100 × $8

6 Nov

12.7%

79%hist 83%

43%hist 40%

+6pp

$1,600

$6,000

—

$66,000

Sell 100 × $8 12.7% OTM over spot $7.10 6 Nov 2026 (8d, $0.17 mid)

= $1,600 credit for the 8d cycle → $6,000/mo projected

Survival (stays ≤ $8)

79%

Breach risk

21%

POP (stays ≤ $8.16)

83%

EV / mo

+$1,925

📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion)

FIGHT'S EDGE

+6pp

31% whole by 9mo vs 25% doing nothing

FIRE DRILLS

~3.3/quarter

challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration)

BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING

$2,656/mo

median; plan ~$1,806/mo after 68% keep · $20,380 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole)

green: with FIGHT · grey: without

if it recovers, the typical trip is ~4.0 mo [2.2-6.0], measured ONLY among the 31% of futures that got whole

🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it)

Challenge odds (touch by expiry)

32%

Flat exit net (mid-life)

-$2,283

Free roll-up

+$0/wk

Safest escape (by 20 Nov 2026)

$9 @ 82% POP

78% survival

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (100 ct)	POP / surv of new CC	If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$8	13 Nov 2026	11d left	+$0.24/sh	+$2,444 cycle +$4,044 [+$2,237…+$2,921] · 100% credit	69% surv 54%	-$63,556 NOT cap gain +$13,044
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)	~$8	13 Nov 2026	11d left	+$0.07/sh	+$744 cycle +$2,344 [+$259…+$943] · 90% credit	73% surv 64%	-$61,256 NOT cap gain +$15,344
Max even-money escape in the band	~$9	20 Nov 2026	18d left	+$0.06/sh	+$631 cycle +$2,231 [-$149…+$858] · 66% credit	78% surv 71%	-$56,369 NOT cap gain +$20,231
SS $15 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)	~$9	20 Nov 2026	18d left	-$0.06/sh	-$640 cycle +$960 [-$1,673…-$546] · 12% credit	82% surv 78%	-$52,640 NOT cap gain +$23,960
budget: banked $1,600 debit $640 (40% used ≈ 0.5 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$960 cash · rolled 100 ct earn ≈ $5,404/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell

More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stress

Income coverage

Gross FIGHT income	$6,000/mo
vs 50% target ($5,600/mo)	+7%
vs normal income ($11,200/mo)	54% covered
Net income (after hedge)	$6,000/mo

Downside budget

⚠ $8 is $7 below CC-SS $14.76: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.

Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)	-$66,000
… as % of IC ($147,500)	44.7%
… as % of ML ($147,500)	44.7%
Recovery months (at normal income)	5.9 mo
Surgical close (100 ct)	$-76,650

Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook

Spot \ Time	≥ 5d left	3-4d left	≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $7.92	Do nothing. Theta wins.	Do nothing.	Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike $8-8.16	Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.	★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.	Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven ≥ $8.16	Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.	Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.	Close today, or be assigned.

If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.00 (IBKR)

Scenario	Spot	CC leg net	Position total	vs today	vs do-nothing
at strike	$8.00 (≤1σ, normal week)	$1,600	$-66,000	+$10,600	+$1,500
+2.5%	$8.20 (≤1σ, normal week)	$-400	$-66,000	+$10,600	-$500
+5%	$8.40 (1.2σ)	$-2,400	$-66,000	+$10,600	-$2,500
SS (= V-bounce)	$14.75 (7.0σ)	$-65,900	$-66,000	+$10,600	-$63,500

V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $14.76, where you are whole again, by expiry)

Starting unrealized P&L: $-76,600

+ Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$76,600

− CC assignment net of premium (100 × $8): -$66,000

Total Position P&L @ SS: $-66,000 (+$10,600 vs today)

Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-2,500 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-63,500, the opportunity cost of earning $6,000/mo FIGHT income now)

BB-reversion stress (→ $11.04 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$28,800, position total $-66,000 (+$10,600 vs today)

▸

100% normal

100 × $7

6 Nov

-1.4%

50%

100%hist 89%

$4,900

$18,375

+$12,375

$72,700

Sell 100 × $7 1.4% ITM over spot $7.10 6 Nov 2026 (8d, $0.50 mid)

= $4,900 credit for the 8d cycle → $18,375/mo projected

Survival (stays ≤ $7)

50%

Breach risk

50%

POP (stays ≤ $7.50)

67%

EV / mo

+$2,323

🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it)

Challenge odds (touch by expiry)

100%

Flat exit net (mid-life)

+$1,715

Free roll-up

none

Safest escape (by 20 Nov 2026)

$10 @ 93% POP

92% survival

Buyback gross: $0.45/sh now → $0.32 mid-life → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.49/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets +$0.17/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (100 ct)	POP / surv of new CC	If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$7	13 Nov 2026	11d left	+$0.20/sh	+$2,000 cycle +$6,900	69% surv 54%	-$69,700 NOT cap gain +$6,900
Max even-money escape in the band	~$8	20 Nov 2026	18d left	+$0.12/sh	+$1,246 cycle +$6,146	75% surv 66%	-$66,454 NOT cap gain +$10,146
SS $15 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)	~$10	20 Nov 2026	18d left	-$0.23/sh	-$2,342 cycle +$2,558	93% surv 92%	-$50,042 NOT cap gain +$26,558
budget: banked $4,900 debit $2,342 (48% used ≈ 0.6 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$2,558 cash · rolled 100 ct earn ≈ $1,405/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell

More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stress

Income coverage

Gross FIGHT income	$18,375/mo
vs 50% target ($5,600/mo)	+228%
vs normal income ($11,200/mo)	164% covered
Net income (after hedge)	$18,375/mo

Downside budget

⚠ $7 is $8 below CC-SS $14.76: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.

Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)	-$72,700
… as % of IC ($147,500)	49.3%
… as % of ML ($147,500)	49.3%
Recovery months (at normal income)	6.5 mo
Surgical close (100 ct)	$-76,700

Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook

The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.12/sh (~25% of the $0.49 collected) or spot ≥ $7.50 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $7)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $11.13 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".

Spot \ Time	≥ 5d left	3-4d left	≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $6.93	Do nothing. Theta wins.	Do nothing.	Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike $7-7.50	Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.	★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.	Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven ≥ $7.50	Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.	Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.	Close today, or be assigned.

If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.00 (IBKR)

Scenario	Spot	CC leg net	Position total	vs today	vs do-nothing
at strike	$7.00 (≤1σ, normal week)	$4,900	$-71,700	+$4,900	+$4,800
+2.5%	$7.17 (≤1σ, normal week)	$3,150	$-72,700	+$3,900	+$3,050
+5%	$7.35 (≤1σ, normal week)	$1,400	$-72,700	+$3,900	+$1,300
SS (= V-bounce)	$14.75 (7.0σ)	$-72,600	$-72,700	+$3,900	-$70,200

V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $14.76, where you are whole again, by expiry)

Starting unrealized P&L: $-76,600

+ Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$76,600

− CC assignment net of premium (100 × $7): -$72,700

Total Position P&L @ SS: $-72,700 (+$3,900 vs today)

Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-2,500 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-70,200, the opportunity cost of earning $18,375/mo FIGHT income now)

BB-reversion stress (→ $11.04 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$35,500, position total $-72,700 (+$3,900 vs today)

A nudge, not a rule: the engine maximizes income at acceptable safety; this weighs the income you would give up against the breach risk you would shed. Your hedge bleed and your read on MARA are the tiebreakers.

⚔ FIGHT CC options · full candidate scan (8 clear the floor), click to expand

Every eligible strike x expiry in the 4-45 DTE band (3 expiries scanned, 8 clear the income floor), each sized to the minimum contracts that clear it. Sorted by survival (safest first): the primary 🎯 is the safest; rows below trade safety for income.

Fortress delta: 1.000 (IBKR) | Recovery@SS: +$76,600 (un-capped fortress gain if stock rallies to SS) | Do-nothing @ SS: $-2,500

Strike	DTE	Expiry	Bid	Sell	Per cycle	Income/mo	Net/mo	Survival	Touch	POP (mid)	EV/mo	Cap Give-up @ CC-SS	%IC	Recover	Total P&L @ SS
$8	8d	6 Nov 2026	$0.16	100/100	$1,600	$6,000	$6,000	79%hist 83%	43%hist 40%	83%	+$1,925	-$66,000	44.7%	5.9mo	$-66,000 (vs do-nothing $-63,500)
$8	15d	13 Nov 2026	$0.30	100/100	$3,000	$6,000	$6,000	75%hist 83%	54%hist 44%	80%	+$1,872	-$64,600	43.8%	5.8mo	$-64,600 (vs do-nothing $-62,100)
$7.50	8d	6 Nov 2026	$0.29	100/100	$2,900	$10,875	$10,875	66%hist 66%	71%hist 68%	75%	+$2,511	-$69,700	47.3%	6.2mo	$-69,700 (vs do-nothing $-67,200)
$7.50	15d	13 Nov 2026	$0.45	100/100	$4,500	$9,000	$9,000	64%hist 66%	77%hist 68%	74%	+$2,036	-$68,100	46.2%	6.1mo	$-68,100 (vs do-nothing $-65,600)
$7.50	22d	20 Nov 2026	$0.56	100/100	$5,600	$7,636	$7,636	63%hist 66%	81%hist 79%	73%	+$1,445	-$67,000	45.4%	6.0mo	$-67,000 (vs do-nothing $-64,500)
$7	22d	20 Nov 2026	$0.77	100/100	$7,700	$10,500	$10,500	53%hist 70%	100%hist 89%	69%	+$1,574	-$69,900	47.4%	6.2mo	$-69,900 (vs do-nothing $-67,400)
$7	15d	13 Nov 2026	$0.66	100/100	$6,600	$13,200	$13,200	52%hist 70%	100%hist 89%	68%	+$2,043	-$71,000	48.1%	6.3mo	$-71,000 (vs do-nothing $-68,500)
$7	8d	6 Nov 2026	$0.49	100/100	$4,900	$18,375	$18,375	50%	100%hist 89%	67%	+$2,323	-$72,700	49.3%	6.5mo	$-72,700 (vs do-nothing $-70,200)

36 more priced, not eligible (safety, income floor or quote screens): shown for reference

Strike	DTE	Expiry	Bid	Sell	Per cycle	Income/mo	Net/mo	Survival	Touch	POP (mid)	EV/mo	Cap Give-up @ CC-SS	%IC	Recover	Total P&L @ SS	Why not eligible
$13.50	15d	13 Nov 2026	$0.01	100/100	$100	$200	$200	99+%hist 95%	0%hist 4%	100%	+$198	-$12,500	8.5%	1.1mo	$-12,500 (vs do-nothing $-10,000)	50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$13	15d	13 Nov 2026	$0.01	100/100	$100	$200	$200	99+%hist 95%	0%hist 4%	100%	+$196	-$17,500	11.9%	1.6mo	$-17,500 (vs do-nothing $-15,000)	50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$12.50	15d	13 Nov 2026	$0.02	100/100	$200	$400	$400	99+%hist 95%	1%hist 4%	100%	+$392	-$22,400	15.2%	2.0mo	$-22,400 (vs do-nothing $-19,900)	50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$12	15d	13 Nov 2026	$0.02	100/100	$200	$400	$400	99+%hist 95%	1%hist 4%	100%	+$383	-$27,400	18.6%	2.4mo	$-27,400 (vs do-nothing $-24,900)	50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$15	15d	13 Nov 2026	$0.01	100/100	$100	$200	$200	99%hist 95%	1%hist 4%	99%	+$154	-$0	0.0%	0.0mo	$100 (vs do-nothing +$2,600)	50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$14.50	15d	13 Nov 2026	$0.01	100/100	$100	$200	$200	99%hist 95%	2%hist 4%	99%	+$135	-$2,500	1.7%	0.2mo	$-2,500 (vs do-nothing +$0)	50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$17	22d	20 Nov 2026	$0.01	100/100	$100	$136	$136	99%hist 95%	2%hist 4%	99%	+$65	-$0	0.0%	0.0mo	$100 (vs do-nothing +$2,600)	50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$11.50	15d	13 Nov 2026	$0.02	100/100	$200	$400	$400	99%hist 95%	2%hist 4%	99%	+$363	-$32,400	22.0%	2.9mo	$-32,400 (vs do-nothing $-29,900)	50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$16	22d	20 Nov 2026	$0.01	100/100	$100	$136	$136	99%hist 95%	2%hist 4%	99%	+$62	-$0	0.0%	0.0mo	$100 (vs do-nothing +$2,600)	50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$14	15d	13 Nov 2026	$0.01	100/100	$100	$200	$200	99%hist 95%	2%hist 4%	99%	+$113	-$7,500	5.1%	0.7mo	$-7,500 (vs do-nothing $-5,000)	50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$15	22d	20 Nov 2026	$0.01	100/100	$100	$136	$136	99%hist 95%	2%hist 4%	99%	+$62	-$0	0.0%	0.0mo	$100 (vs do-nothing +$2,600)	50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$14	22d	20 Nov 2026	$0.02	100/100	$200	$273	$273	99%hist 95%	2%hist 4%	99%	+$195	-$7,400	5.0%	0.7mo	$-7,400 (vs do-nothing $-4,900)	50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$11	8d	6 Nov 2026	$0.01	100/100	$100	$375	$375	99%hist 95%	2%hist 4%	99%	+$273	-$37,500	25.4%	3.3mo	$-37,500 (vs do-nothing $-35,000)	50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$13.50	22d	20 Nov 2026	$0.01	100/100	$100	$136	$136	99%hist 95%	3%hist 4%	99%	+$53	-$12,500	8.5%	1.1mo	$-12,500 (vs do-nothing $-10,000)	50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$13	22d	20 Nov 2026	$0.02	100/100	$200	$273	$273	99%hist 95%	3%hist 4%	99%	+$179	-$17,400	11.8%	1.6mo	$-17,400 (vs do-nothing $-14,900)	50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$11	15d	13 Nov 2026	$0.03	100/100	$300	$600	$600	99%hist 95%	3%hist 4%	99%	+$521	-$37,300	25.3%	3.3mo	$-37,300 (vs do-nothing $-34,800)	50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$12.50	22d	20 Nov 2026	$0.02	100/100	$200	$273	$273	98%hist 95%	4%hist 4%	98%	+$159	-$22,400	15.2%	2.0mo	$-22,400 (vs do-nothing $-19,900)	50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$10.50	8d	6 Nov 2026	$0.01	100/100	$100	$375	$375	98%hist 95%	4%hist 4%	98%	+$201	-$42,500	28.8%	3.8mo	$-42,500 (vs do-nothing $-40,000)	50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$12	22d	20 Nov 2026	$0.03	100/100	$300	$409	$409	98%hist 95%	5%hist 4%	98%	+$261	-$27,300	18.5%	2.4mo	$-27,300 (vs do-nothing $-24,800)	50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$10.50	15d	13 Nov 2026	$0.04	100/100	$400	$800	$800	97%hist 95%	5%hist 4%	98%	+$635	-$42,200	28.6%	3.8mo	$-42,200 (vs do-nothing $-39,700)	50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$10	8d	6 Nov 2026	$0.01	100/100	$100	$375	$375	97%hist 95%	6%hist 4%	97%	+$108	-$47,500	32.2%	4.2mo	$-47,500 (vs do-nothing $-45,000)	50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$11.50	22d	20 Nov 2026	$0.04	100/100	$400	$545	$545	97%hist 95%	6%hist 4%	97%	+$342	-$32,200	21.8%	2.9mo	$-32,200 (vs do-nothing $-29,700)	50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$11	22d	20 Nov 2026	$0.05	100/100	$500	$682	$682	96%hist 95%	8%hist 4%	96%	+$392	-$37,100	25.2%	3.3mo	$-37,100 (vs do-nothing $-34,600)	50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$9.50	8d	6 Nov 2026	$0.02	100/100	$200	$750	$750	96%hist 95%	8%hist 4%	96%	+$301	-$52,400	35.5%	4.7mo	$-52,400 (vs do-nothing $-49,900)	50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$10	15d	13 Nov 2026	$0.06	100/100	$600	$1,200	$1,200	96%hist 95%	9%hist 4%	96%	+$865	-$47,000	31.9%	4.2mo	$-47,000 (vs do-nothing $-44,500)	50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$10.50	22d	20 Nov 2026	$0.07	100/100	$700	$955	$955	95%hist 95%	11%hist 13%	95%	+$519	-$41,900	28.4%	3.7mo	$-41,900 (vs do-nothing $-39,400)	50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$9	8d	6 Nov 2026	$0.04	100/100	$400	$1,500	$1,500	93%hist 95%	14%hist 13%	94%	+$619	-$57,200	38.8%	5.1mo	$-57,200 (vs do-nothing $-54,700)	50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$10	22d	20 Nov 2026	$0.10	100/100	$1,000	$1,364	$1,364	93%hist 95%	15%hist 13%	93%	+$740	-$46,600	31.6%	4.2mo	$-46,600 (vs do-nothing $-44,100)	50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$9.50	15d	13 Nov 2026	$0.08	100/100	$800	$1,600	$1,600	92%hist 95%	17%hist 13%	93%	+$705	-$51,800	35.1%	4.6mo	$-51,800 (vs do-nothing $-49,300)	50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$9.50	22d	20 Nov 2026	$0.14	100/100	$1,400	$1,909	$1,909	90%hist 86%	22%hist 23%	91%	+$880	-$51,200	34.7%	4.6mo	$-51,200 (vs do-nothing $-48,700)	50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$9	15d	13 Nov 2026	$0.13	100/100	$1,300	$2,600	$2,600	89%hist 86%	23%hist 23%	90%	+$1,334	-$56,300	38.2%	5.0mo	$-56,300 (vs do-nothing $-53,800)	50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$8.50	8d	6 Nov 2026	$0.08	100/100	$800	$3,000	$3,000	88%hist 86%	25%hist 23%	89%	+$1,103	-$61,800	41.9%	5.5mo	$-61,800 (vs do-nothing $-59,300)	50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$9	22d	20 Nov 2026	$0.19	100/100	$1,900	$2,591	$2,591	85%hist 86%	31%hist 30%	87%	+$922	-$55,700	37.8%	5.0mo	$-55,700 (vs do-nothing $-53,200)	50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$8.50	15d	13 Nov 2026	$0.19	100/100	$1,900	$3,800	$3,800	83%hist 86%	36%hist 30%	86%	+$1,466	-$60,700	41.2%	5.4mo	$-60,700 (vs do-nothing $-58,200)	50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$8.50	22d	20 Nov 2026	$0.28	100/100	$2,800	$3,818	$3,818	80%hist 83%	44%hist 40%	83%	+$1,168	-$59,800	40.5%	5.3mo	$-59,800 (vs do-nothing $-57,300)	50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$8	22d	20 Nov 2026	$0.40	100/100	$4,000	$5,455	$5,455	72%hist 83%	60%hist 54%	78%	+$1,347	-$63,600	43.1%	5.7mo	$-63,600 (vs do-nothing $-61,100)	50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract

Per cycle = bid x 100 x contracts, the cash this expiry pays. Touch = P(strike trades before expiry), with the graded record's hist pill. Recover = months of this income to close the hole to CC-SS. Income/mo = FIGHT leg gross, DTE-prorated. Net/mo = FIGHT + conservative CC gross minus hedge cost. POP (mid) = probability stock closes at or below (strike + mid premium) at expiry, per-strike chain IV when available. Survival = CC expires fully worthless. EV/mo = premium minus expected buyback, monthly, with realized vol = IV x 85% (variance risk premium 15%). Survival, POP and touch use vol x 1.00 (raw implied: the VRP haircut is applied to the premium edge but NOT to risk, because understating the edge costs opportunity while understating breach odds costs capital; the risk-side haircut arms only from the graded ledger). Cap give-up @ SS = recovery mortgaged on a V-bounce to SS, net of premium. Total P&L @ SS = absolute position P&L if the stock closes at SS; "vs do-nothing" = opportunity cost against holding all 100 contracts at the conservative CC.

fortress_fight.py v6.3 | 2026-10-30 03:13