FORTRESS FIGHT: MARA-STK-1299 @ $6.74

BE SS: $14.75 | CC-SS: $14.76 | 100 contracts (10,000 sh) | ⌂ PORTFOLIO

MARA-STK-1299 @ $6.74 UNDERWATER $8.01 (54.3% below BE SS)

⚠ EARNINGS · DO NOT SELL INCOME INTO IT

MARA reports 2026-11-04 (Wed), in 5 days. The recommended CC (7d) expires on/after it, so selling now holds a short call through the earnings gap, a report can blow past your strike overnight and cap you at a loss. No priced expiry closes before the print, so waiting for it is the only clean option.

100 contracts (10,000 sh) | BE SS: $14.75 | CC-SS: $14.76 | IV: HIGH | Accounts: Main:1299

LC: $0 exp 2099-12-31 (entry $14.752/sh)

Economics

Max Loss	$147,500	(ND $14.75 + SW $0) x 10000
Normal income ref	$10,500/mo	95% ann ROI on ML
Hedge rolling cost	$0/mo
Unrealized P&L	$-80,200	fortress legs from IBKR

INCOME GOALPOSTS & VELOCITY

50% INCOME FLOOR
$5,250/mo

HEDGE COVER
$0/mo

NORMAL INCOME
$10,500/mo (ATM CC, chain)

IC VELOCITY
14.0 mo to earn back $147,500

ML VELOCITY
14.0 mo to earn back $147,500

Deep drawdown confirmed: a CC at CC-SS $14.76 (probe: $14C 14d) brings only $214/mo (<20% of normal), so FIGHT below it is warranted.

🏦 Campaign ledger: seeded, nothing tracked yet. Open short calls and banked credits appear here from the next cycle on; the banked-floor (info) shows how far premium would ratchet the floor, but the recommended CC-SS stays the pure recovery strike.

TECHNICALS (cc_timing weekly gate + daily trigger)

WEEKLYOVERSOLD · %B -0 (live) · RSI 35 · MACD bearish, hist falling

DAILYFALLING (provisional) · RSI 28 · %B 23 · hist rising (nightly)

LEVELS20W MA (bounce target) $11.02 (+64%) · daily UBB $10.68 · 1-wk expected move ±$1 (chain IV)

SETUPSpring loaded, not ignited: 🎯 or 💎 at short DTE, normal tripwires. (advisory; floors and picks are chain-only)

⚠ Next earnings 2026-11-04: candidates whose expiry crosses it are flagged in the spectrum; EV is unreliable across earnings.

INTERPRETATION

Primary: 100 contracts at $7.50 / 7d. This is the safest strike (survival 77%, breach 23%) that still earns 50% of normal income ($5,250/mo); it brings $6,857/mo. The engine maximizes the odds the pullback never reaches your strike, rather than chasing the fattest near-ATM premium.

More income, less safety: the ladder tops out at 100 × $7/7d for $12,857/mo, but breach risk rises to 37% (+15pp vs the primary). The lower strike is hit by a smaller bounce.

More safety, less income: for just the hedge you can sit at 100 × $17/21d (99% survival, $143/mo).

Downside anchor: the primary mortgages $71,000 (48% of IC) ONLY on a full V-bounce all the way to SS $15, recoverable in 6.8 months of normal income. That is the rare tail; the frequent case is the strike holding. Surgical close on the 100 contracts realizes $-80,250 and cuts bleed by $0/mo.

📅 Two weekly tracks, this Friday & next Friday

Each Friday gets its own recommended pick and full income ladder (safest strike per income rung, sized across your 100 contracts). The master ranks the two by E[net]/mo to pick one grand pick; both are shown here so you can choose the tenor that fits your roll cadence.

🏆 Grand pick: NEXT FRIDAY · 6 Nov 2026 (7d) · sell 100 × $7.50, 77% survival, $6,857/mo (E[net] $1,195/mo). ⏸ WAIT: every listed weekly is open through the next earnings print, so nothing here is a sell-now suggestion; sell after the print.
This week's Friday is inside the pin/gamma window, so only the next weekly is shown.

Track	Expiry	Sell	Survival	Income/mo	E[net]/mo
NEXT FRIDAY 🏆 ⚡	6 Nov 2026 · 7d	100 × $7.50	77%	$6,857	$1,195

E[net] arithmetic on the grand pick: keep $1,600 with probability 66%; on the 34% touch you roll, paying $3,595 to close and taking $1,358 back from the best priced door (net cash $2,237) and parking about one cycle of income. Charging the FULL buyback with no door credit (the pre-2026-07-25 model) contradicted the campaign simulation, which prices the same event as a cash-neutral even roll.

📅 NEXT FRIDAY · 6 Nov 2026 · 7d · E[net] $1,195/mo 🏆 GRAND PICK

🎯 Engine pick: sell 100 × $7.50 (50% normal), 77% survival, breach 23%, $6,857/mo.
⚖️ Worth a safer step: the $9 rung (🛡 safe yield) lifts survival to 92% (breach 23% → 8%) for $5,143/mo less (75% income), and it still covers your hedge. The pick sits below the ~80% (≈1σ) comfort line; on a drawdown you are nursing back, dodging the frequent breach usually beats the extra premium. Lean: the safer $9 rung, unless you need the income to cover the hedge bleed, or you expect MARA to stay flat-to-down near term.

MARA spot $6.74 · click a rung to expand its decision panel

Rung

Sell

Expiry

DTE

OTM

Survival

Touch odds

FIGHT edge

Per cycle

Income/mo

Δ vs pick

Cap give-up

▸

🛡 safe yield ← lean

100 × $9

13 Nov

14d

33.5%

92%hist 95%

18%hist 13%

+2pp

$800

$1,714

-$5,143

$56,800

Sell 100 × $9 33.5% OTM over spot $6.74 13 Nov 2026 (14d, $0.09 mid)

= $800 credit for the 14d cycle → $1,714/mo projected

Survival (stays ≤ $9)

92%

Breach risk

POP (stays ≤ $9.09)

92%

EV / mo

+$726

📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion)

FIGHT'S EDGE

+2pp

29% whole by 9mo vs 26% doing nothing

FIRE DRILLS

~0.8/quarter

challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration)

BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING

$988/mo

median; plan ~$672/mo after 68% keep · $7,711 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole)

green: with FIGHT · grey: without

if it recovers, the typical trip is ~3.6 mo [2.2-5.8], measured ONLY among the 29% of futures that got whole

🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it)

Challenge odds (touch by expiry)

14%

Flat exit net (mid-life)

-$5,784

Free roll-up

+$0/wk

Safest escape (by 27 Nov 2026)

$10 @ 78% POP

72% survival

Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 100 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 7 of 14); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic

Buyback gross: $0.93/sh now → $0.66 mid-life (likely $0.53–$0.86) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.08/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.58/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours

📊 Across 409 simulated challenges: the $9 strike is typically first touched on day 9 of 14, at $9 (overshoots $0.32). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (100 ct)	POP / surv of new CC	If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)	~$9	20 Nov 2026	14d left	+$0.13/sh	+$1,307 cycle +$2,107 [+$1,160…+$2,212] · 100% credit	71% surv 59%	-$52,893 NOT cap gain +$27,307
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$9	20 Nov 2026	14d left	+$0.11/sh	+$1,057 cycle +$1,857 [+$751…+$2,136] · 96% credit	67% surv 55%	-$55,743 NOT cap gain +$24,457
Max even-money escape in the band	~$10	27 Nov 2026	21d left	+$0.09/sh	+$923 cycle +$1,723 [+$616…+$2,141] · 95% credit	75% surv 66%	-$48,277 NOT cap gain +$31,923
SS $15 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)	~$10	27 Nov 2026	21d left	-$0.06/sh	-$557 cycle +$243 [-$1,047…+$554] · 37% credit	78% surv 72%	-$44,757 NOT cap gain +$35,443
budget: banked $800 debit $557 (70% used ≈ 1.4 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$243 cash · rolled 100 ct earn ≈ $8,610/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell

If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike.

POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP.

Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened.

More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stress

Income coverage

Gross FIGHT income	$1,714/mo
vs 50% target ($5,250/mo)	-67%
vs normal income ($10,500/mo)	16% covered
Net income (after hedge)	$1,714/mo

Downside budget

⚠ $9 is $6 below CC-SS $14.76: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.

Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)	-$56,800
… as % of IC ($147,500)	38.5%
… as % of ML ($147,500)	38.5%
Recovery months (at normal income)	5.4 mo
Surgical close (100 ct)	$-80,300

Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook

The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.02/sh (~25% of the $0.08 collected) or spot ≥ $9.09 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $9)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $10.68 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".

Spot \ Time	≥ 8d left	3-7d left	≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $8.91	Do nothing. Theta wins.	Do nothing.	Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike $9-9.09	Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.	★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.	Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven ≥ $9.09	Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.	Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.	Close today, or be assigned.

If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.00 (IBKR)

Scenario	Spot	CC leg net	Position total	vs today	vs do-nothing
at strike	$9.00 (1.5σ)	$800	$-56,800	+$23,400	+$700
+2.5%	$9.22 (1.7σ)	$-1,450	$-56,800	+$23,400	-$1,550
+5%	$9.45 (1.8σ)	$-3,700	$-56,800	+$23,400	-$3,800
SS (= V-bounce)	$14.75 (5.4σ)	$-56,700	$-56,800	+$23,400	-$56,800

V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $14.76, where you are whole again, by expiry)

Starting unrealized P&L: $-80,200

+ Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$80,200

− CC assignment net of premium (100 × $9): -$56,800

Total Position P&L @ SS: $-56,800 (+$23,400 vs today)

Do-nothing baseline at SS: $100 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-56,900, the opportunity cost of earning $1,714/mo FIGHT income now)

BB-reversion stress (→ $11.02 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$19,400, position total $-56,800 (+$23,400 vs today)

▸

33% normal

100 × $7.50

6 Nov

11.3%

77%hist 83%

47%hist 40%

+7pp

$1,600

$6,857

+$0

$71,000

Sell 100 × $7.50 11.3% OTM over spot $6.74 6 Nov 2026 (7d, $0.17 mid)

= $1,600 credit for the 7d cycle → $6,857/mo projected

Survival (stays ≤ $7.50)

77%

Breach risk

23%

POP (stays ≤ $7.67)

81%

EV / mo

+$1,898

📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion)

FIGHT'S EDGE

+7pp

35% whole by 9mo vs 28% doing nothing

FIRE DRILLS

~4.1/quarter

challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration)

BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING

$2,850/mo

median; plan ~$1,938/mo after 68% keep · $21,715 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole)

green: with FIGHT · grey: without

if it recovers, the typical trip is ~3.7 mo [2.2-5.6], measured ONLY among the 35% of futures that got whole

🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it)

Challenge odds (touch by expiry)

34%

Flat exit net (mid-life)

-$1,995

Free roll-up

+$0/wk

Safest escape (by 27 Nov 2026)

$10 @ 87% POP

85% survival

Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 100 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 7); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic

Buyback gross: $0.51/sh now → $0.36 mid-life (likely $0.39–$0.61) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.16/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.20/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours

📊 Across 1,033 simulated challenges: the $8 strike is typically first touched on day 4 of 7, at $8 (overshoots $0.26). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (100 ct)	POP / surv of new CC	If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)	~$8	13 Nov 2026	10d left	+$0.14/sh	+$1,358 cycle +$2,958 [+$858…+$1,492] · 98% credit	72% surv 61%	-$67,042 NOT cap gain +$13,158
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$8	13 Nov 2026	10d left	+$0.14/sh	+$1,358 cycle +$2,958 [+$673…+$1,498] · 94% credit	66% surv 54%	-$69,642 NOT cap gain +$10,558
Max even-money escape in the band	~$9	27 Nov 2026	24d left	+$0.07/sh	+$739 cycle +$2,339 [-$189…+$864] · 64% credit	80% surv 75%	-$57,661 NOT cap gain +$22,539
SS $15 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)	~$10	27 Nov 2026	24d left	-$0.12/sh	-$1,238 cycle +$362 [-$2,627…-$1,252] · 5% credit	87% surv 85%	-$49,638 NOT cap gain +$30,562
budget: banked $1,600 debit $1,238 (77% used ≈ 0.8 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$362 cash · rolled 100 ct earn ≈ $2,946/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell

More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stress

Income coverage

Gross FIGHT income	$6,857/mo
vs 50% target ($5,250/mo)	+31%
vs normal income ($10,500/mo)	65% covered
Net income (after hedge)	$6,857/mo

Downside budget

⚠ $7.50 is $7 below CC-SS $14.76: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.

Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)	-$71,000
… as % of IC ($147,500)	48.1%
… as % of ML ($147,500)	48.1%
Recovery months (at normal income)	6.8 mo
Surgical close (100 ct)	$-80,250

Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook

The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.04/sh (~25% of the $0.16 collected) or spot ≥ $7.67 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $8)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $10.68 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".

Spot \ Time	≥ 4d left	3d left	≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $7.42	Do nothing. Theta wins.	Do nothing.	Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike $7-7.67	Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.	★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.	Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven ≥ $7.67	Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.	Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.	Close today, or be assigned.

If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.00 (IBKR)

Scenario	Spot	CC leg net	Position total	vs today	vs do-nothing
at strike	$7.50 (≤1σ, normal week)	$1,600	$-71,000	+$9,200	+$1,500
+2.5%	$7.69 (≤1σ, normal week)	$-275	$-71,000	+$9,200	-$375
+5%	$7.88 (1.1σ)	$-2,150	$-71,000	+$9,200	-$2,250
SS (= V-bounce)	$14.75 (7.6σ)	$-70,900	$-71,000	+$9,200	-$71,000

V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $14.76, where you are whole again, by expiry)

Starting unrealized P&L: $-80,200

+ Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$80,200

− CC assignment net of premium (100 × $7.50): -$71,000

Total Position P&L @ SS: $-71,000 (+$9,200 vs today)

Do-nothing baseline at SS: $100 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-71,100, the opportunity cost of earning $6,857/mo FIGHT income now)

BB-reversion stress (→ $11.02 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$33,600, position total $-71,000 (+$9,200 vs today)

▸

🎯 50% normal

100 × $7.50

6 Nov

11.3%

77%hist 83%

47%hist 40%

+7pp

$1,600

$6,857

—

$71,000

Sell 100 × $7.50 11.3% OTM over spot $6.74 6 Nov 2026 (7d, $0.17 mid)

= $1,600 credit for the 7d cycle → $6,857/mo projected

Survival (stays ≤ $7.50)

77%

Breach risk

23%

POP (stays ≤ $7.67)

81%

EV / mo

+$1,898

📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion)

FIGHT'S EDGE

+7pp

35% whole by 9mo vs 28% doing nothing

FIRE DRILLS

~4.1/quarter

challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration)

BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING

$2,850/mo

median; plan ~$1,938/mo after 68% keep · $21,715 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole)

green: with FIGHT · grey: without

if it recovers, the typical trip is ~3.7 mo [2.2-5.6], measured ONLY among the 35% of futures that got whole

🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it)

Challenge odds (touch by expiry)

34%

Flat exit net (mid-life)

-$1,995

Free roll-up

+$0/wk

Safest escape (by 27 Nov 2026)

$10 @ 87% POP

85% survival

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (100 ct)	POP / surv of new CC	If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)	~$8	13 Nov 2026	10d left	+$0.14/sh	+$1,358 cycle +$2,958 [+$858…+$1,492] · 98% credit	72% surv 61%	-$67,042 NOT cap gain +$13,158
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$8	13 Nov 2026	10d left	+$0.14/sh	+$1,358 cycle +$2,958 [+$673…+$1,498] · 94% credit	66% surv 54%	-$69,642 NOT cap gain +$10,558
Max even-money escape in the band	~$9	27 Nov 2026	24d left	+$0.07/sh	+$739 cycle +$2,339 [-$189…+$864] · 64% credit	80% surv 75%	-$57,661 NOT cap gain +$22,539
SS $15 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)	~$10	27 Nov 2026	24d left	-$0.12/sh	-$1,238 cycle +$362 [-$2,627…-$1,252] · 5% credit	87% surv 85%	-$49,638 NOT cap gain +$30,562
budget: banked $1,600 debit $1,238 (77% used ≈ 0.8 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$362 cash · rolled 100 ct earn ≈ $2,946/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell

More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stress

Income coverage

Gross FIGHT income	$6,857/mo
vs 50% target ($5,250/mo)	+31%
vs normal income ($10,500/mo)	65% covered
Net income (after hedge)	$6,857/mo

Downside budget

⚠ $7.50 is $7 below CC-SS $14.76: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.

Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)	-$71,000
… as % of IC ($147,500)	48.1%
… as % of ML ($147,500)	48.1%
Recovery months (at normal income)	6.8 mo
Surgical close (100 ct)	$-80,250

Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook

Spot \ Time	≥ 4d left	3d left	≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $7.42	Do nothing. Theta wins.	Do nothing.	Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike $7-7.67	Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.	★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.	Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven ≥ $7.67	Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.	Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.	Close today, or be assigned.

If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.00 (IBKR)

Scenario	Spot	CC leg net	Position total	vs today	vs do-nothing
at strike	$7.50 (≤1σ, normal week)	$1,600	$-71,000	+$9,200	+$1,500
+2.5%	$7.69 (≤1σ, normal week)	$-275	$-71,000	+$9,200	-$375
+5%	$7.88 (1.1σ)	$-2,150	$-71,000	+$9,200	-$2,250
SS (= V-bounce)	$14.75 (7.6σ)	$-70,900	$-71,000	+$9,200	-$71,000

V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $14.76, where you are whole again, by expiry)

Starting unrealized P&L: $-80,200

+ Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$80,200

− CC assignment net of premium (100 × $7.50): -$71,000

Total Position P&L @ SS: $-71,000 (+$9,200 vs today)

Do-nothing baseline at SS: $100 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-71,100, the opportunity cost of earning $6,857/mo FIGHT income now)

BB-reversion stress (→ $11.02 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$33,600, position total $-71,000 (+$9,200 vs today)

▸

100% normal

100 × $7

6 Nov

3.9%

63%hist 66%

79%hist 68%

+9pp

$3,000

$12,857

+$6,000

$74,600

Sell 100 × $7 3.9% OTM over spot $6.74 6 Nov 2026 (7d, $0.31 mid)

= $3,000 credit for the 7d cycle → $12,857/mo projected

Survival (stays ≤ $7)

63%

Breach risk

37%

POP (stays ≤ $7.31)

73%

EV / mo

+$2,364

📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion)

FIGHT'S EDGE

+9pp

37% whole by 9mo vs 28% doing nothing

FIRE DRILLS

~8.6/quarter

challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration)

BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING

$3,691/mo

median; plan ~$2,510/mo after 68% keep · $27,505 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole)

green: with FIGHT · grey: without

if it recovers, the typical trip is ~3.9 mo [2.4-5.8], measured ONLY among the 37% of futures that got whole

🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it)

Challenge odds (touch by expiry)

61%

Flat exit net (mid-life)

-$249

Free roll-up

+$0/wk

Safest escape (by 27 Nov 2026)

$10 @ 92% POP

91% survival

Buyback gross: $0.46/sh now → $0.32 mid-life (likely $0.42–$0.62) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.30/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.02/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours

📊 Across 1,823 simulated challenges: the $7 strike is typically first touched on day 3 of 7, at $7 (overshoots $0.26). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (100 ct)	POP / surv of new CC	If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)	~$7	13 Nov 2026	10d left	+$0.11/sh	+$1,137 cycle +$4,137 [+$484…+$899] · 95% credit	72% surv 61%	-$70,863 NOT cap gain +$9,337
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)	~$8	27 Nov 2026	24d left	+$0.17/sh	+$1,656 cycle +$4,656 [+$661…+$1,339] · 95% credit	77% surv 69%	-$65,344 NOT cap gain +$14,856
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$7	13 Nov 2026	10d left	+$0.12/sh	+$1,233 cycle +$4,233 [+$345…+$916] · 89% credit	66% surv 54%	-$73,367 NOT cap gain +$6,833
Max even-money escape in the band	~$8	27 Nov 2026	24d left	+$0.04/sh	+$354 cycle +$3,354 [-$921…-$91] · 22% credit	81% surv 77%	-$61,646 NOT cap gain +$18,554
SS $15 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)	~$10	27 Nov 2026	24d left	-$0.19/sh	-$1,925 cycle +$1,075 [-$3,982…-$2,603]	92% surv 91%	-$48,925 NOT cap gain +$31,275
budget: banked $3,000 debit $1,925 (64% used ≈ 0.7 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$1,075 cash · rolled 100 ct earn ≈ $1,655/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell

More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stress

Income coverage

Gross FIGHT income	$12,857/mo
vs 50% target ($5,250/mo)	+145%
vs normal income ($10,500/mo)	122% covered
Net income (after hedge)	$12,857/mo

Downside budget

⚠ $7 is $8 below CC-SS $14.76: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.

Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)	-$74,600
… as % of IC ($147,500)	50.6%
… as % of ML ($147,500)	50.6%
Recovery months (at normal income)	7.1 mo
Surgical close (100 ct)	$-80,300

Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook

The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.07/sh (~25% of the $0.30 collected) or spot ≥ $7.31 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $7)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $10.68 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".

Spot \ Time	≥ 4d left	3d left	≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $6.93	Do nothing. Theta wins.	Do nothing.	Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike $7-7.31	Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.	★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.	Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven ≥ $7.31	Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.	Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.	Close today, or be assigned.

If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.00 (IBKR)

Scenario	Spot	CC leg net	Position total	vs today	vs do-nothing
at strike	$7.00 (≤1σ, normal week)	$3,000	$-74,600	+$5,600	+$2,900
+2.5%	$7.17 (≤1σ, normal week)	$1,250	$-74,600	+$5,600	+$1,150
+5%	$7.35 (≤1σ, normal week)	$-500	$-74,600	+$5,600	-$600
SS (= V-bounce)	$14.75 (7.6σ)	$-74,500	$-74,600	+$5,600	-$74,600

V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $14.76, where you are whole again, by expiry)

Starting unrealized P&L: $-80,200

+ Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$80,200

− CC assignment net of premium (100 × $7): -$74,600

Total Position P&L @ SS: $-74,600 (+$5,600 vs today)

Do-nothing baseline at SS: $100 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-74,700, the opportunity cost of earning $12,857/mo FIGHT income now)

BB-reversion stress (→ $11.02 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$37,200, position total $-74,600 (+$5,600 vs today)

A nudge, not a rule: the engine maximizes income at acceptable safety; this weighs the income you would give up against the breach risk you would shed. Your hedge bleed and your read on MARA are the tiebreakers.

⚔ FIGHT CC options · full candidate scan (8 clear the floor), click to expand

Every eligible strike x expiry in the 4-45 DTE band (4 expiries scanned, 8 clear the income floor), each sized to the minimum contracts that clear it. Sorted by survival (safest first): the primary 🎯 is the safest; rows below trade safety for income.

Fortress delta: 1.000 (IBKR) | Recovery@SS: +$80,200 (un-capped fortress gain if stock rallies to SS) | Do-nothing @ SS: $100

Strike	DTE	Expiry	Bid	Sell	Per cycle	Income/mo	Net/mo	Survival	Touch	POP (mid)	EV/mo	Cap Give-up @ CC-SS	%IC	Recover	Total P&L @ SS
$7.50	7d	6 Nov 2026	$0.16	100/100	$1,600	$6,857	$6,857	77%hist 83%	47%hist 40%	81%	+$1,898	-$71,000	48.1%	6.8mo	$-71,000 (vs do-nothing $-71,100)
$7.50	14d	13 Nov 2026	$0.32	100/100	$3,200	$6,857	$6,857	72%hist 83%	60%hist 54%	78%	+$1,624	-$69,400	47.1%	6.6mo	$-69,400 (vs do-nothing $-69,500)
$7.50	21d	20 Nov 2026	$0.43	100/100	$4,300	$6,143	$6,143	70%hist 83%	65%hist 54%	77%	+$1,306	-$68,300	46.3%	6.5mo	$-68,300 (vs do-nothing $-68,400)
$7.50	28d	27 Nov 2026	$0.50	100/100	$5,000	$5,357	$5,357	70%hist 66%	68%hist 54%	77%	+$1,161	-$67,600	45.8%	6.4mo	$-67,600 (vs do-nothing $-67,700)
$7	7d	6 Nov 2026	$0.30	100/100	$3,000	$12,857	$12,857	63%hist 66%	79%hist 68%	73%	+$2,364	-$74,600	50.6%	7.1mo	$-74,600 (vs do-nothing $-74,700)
$7	14d	13 Nov 2026	$0.49	100/100	$4,900	$10,500	$10,500	61%hist 66%	85%hist 79%	72%	+$1,689	-$72,700	49.3%	6.9mo	$-72,700 (vs do-nothing $-72,800)
$7	28d	27 Nov 2026	$0.68	100/100	$6,800	$7,286	$7,286	61%hist 66%	88%hist 79%	72%	+$1,267	-$70,800	48.0%	6.7mo	$-70,800 (vs do-nothing $-70,900)
$7	21d	20 Nov 2026	$0.61	100/100	$6,100	$8,714	$8,714	61%hist 66%	87%hist 79%	72%	+$1,457	-$71,500	48.5%	6.8mo	$-71,500 (vs do-nothing $-71,600)

53 more priced, not eligible (safety, income floor or quote screens): shown for reference

Strike	DTE	Expiry	Bid	Sell	Per cycle	Income/mo	Net/mo	Survival	Touch	POP (mid)	EV/mo	Cap Give-up @ CC-SS	%IC	Recover	Total P&L @ SS	Why not eligible
$17	21d	20 Nov 2026	$0.01	100/100	$100	$143	$143	99%hist 95%	1%hist 4%	100%	+$105	-$0	0.0%	0.0mo	$100 (vs do-nothing +$0)	50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$14	14d	13 Nov 2026	$0.01	100/100	$100	$214	$214	99%hist 95%	1%hist 4%	99%	+$164	-$7,500	5.1%	0.7mo	$-7,500 (vs do-nothing $-7,600)	50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$17	28d	27 Nov 2026	$0.01	100/100	$100	$107	$107	99%hist 95%	1%hist 4%	99%	+$60	-$0	0.0%	0.0mo	$100 (vs do-nothing +$0)	50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$16	21d	20 Nov 2026	$0.01	100/100	$100	$143	$143	99%hist 95%	2%hist 4%	99%	+$86	-$0	0.0%	0.0mo	$100 (vs do-nothing +$0)	50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$16	28d	27 Nov 2026	$0.01	100/100	$100	$107	$107	99%hist 95%	2%hist 4%	99%	+$58	-$0	0.0%	0.0mo	$100 (vs do-nothing +$0)	50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$15.50	28d	27 Nov 2026	$0.01	100/100	$100	$107	$107	99%hist 95%	2%hist 4%	99%	+$57	-$0	0.0%	0.0mo	$100 (vs do-nothing +$0)	50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$13.50	14d	13 Nov 2026	$0.01	100/100	$100	$214	$214	99%hist 95%	2%hist 4%	99%	+$143	-$12,500	8.5%	1.2mo	$-12,500 (vs do-nothing $-12,600)	50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$15	21d	20 Nov 2026	$0.01	100/100	$100	$143	$143	99%hist 95%	2%hist 4%	99%	+$73	-$0	0.0%	0.0mo	$100 (vs do-nothing +$0)	50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$13	14d	13 Nov 2026	$0.01	100/100	$100	$214	$214	99%hist 95%	2%hist 4%	99%	+$121	-$17,500	11.9%	1.7mo	$-17,500 (vs do-nothing $-17,600)	50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$14	21d	20 Nov 2026	$0.01	100/100	$100	$143	$143	99%hist 95%	2%hist 4%	99%	+$63	-$7,500	5.1%	0.7mo	$-7,500 (vs do-nothing $-7,600)	50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$15	28d	27 Nov 2026	$0.01	100/100	$100	$107	$107	99%hist 95%	2%hist 4%	99%	+$34	-$0	0.0%	0.0mo	$100 (vs do-nothing +$0)	50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$14.50	28d	27 Nov 2026	$0.01	100/100	$100	$107	$107	99%hist 95%	2%hist 4%	99%	+$33	-$2,500	1.7%	0.2mo	$-2,500 (vs do-nothing $-2,600)	50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$13.50	21d	20 Nov 2026	$0.01	100/100	$100	$143	$143	99%hist 95%	3%hist 4%	99%	+$56	-$12,500	8.5%	1.2mo	$-12,500 (vs do-nothing $-12,600)	50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$14	28d	27 Nov 2026	$0.02	100/100	$200	$214	$214	99%hist 95%	3%hist 4%	99%	+$139	-$7,400	5.0%	0.7mo	$-7,400 (vs do-nothing $-7,500)	50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$10.50	7d	6 Nov 2026	$0.01	100/100	$100	$429	$429	99%hist 95%	3%hist 4%	99%	+$310	-$42,500	28.8%	4.0mo	$-42,500 (vs do-nothing $-42,600)	50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$12.50	14d	13 Nov 2026	$0.01	100/100	$100	$214	$214	99%hist 95%	3%hist 4%	99%	+$96	-$22,500	15.3%	2.1mo	$-22,500 (vs do-nothing $-22,600)	50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$13	21d	20 Nov 2026	$0.02	100/100	$200	$286	$286	99%hist 95%	3%hist 4%	99%	+$187	-$17,400	11.8%	1.7mo	$-17,400 (vs do-nothing $-17,500)	50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$13.50	28d	27 Nov 2026	$0.02	100/100	$200	$214	$214	99%hist 95%	3%hist 4%	99%	+$130	-$12,400	8.4%	1.2mo	$-12,400 (vs do-nothing $-12,500)	50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$12	14d	13 Nov 2026	$0.01	100/100	$100	$214	$214	98%hist 95%	3%hist 4%	98%	+$69	-$27,500	18.6%	2.6mo	$-27,500 (vs do-nothing $-27,600)	50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$12.50	21d	20 Nov 2026	$0.02	100/100	$200	$286	$286	98%hist 95%	3%hist 4%	98%	+$171	-$22,400	15.2%	2.1mo	$-22,400 (vs do-nothing $-22,500)	50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$13	28d	27 Nov 2026	$0.02	100/100	$200	$214	$214	98%hist 95%	4%hist 4%	98%	+$106	-$17,400	11.8%	1.7mo	$-17,400 (vs do-nothing $-17,500)	50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$11.50	14d	13 Nov 2026	$0.02	100/100	$200	$429	$429	98%hist 95%	4%hist 4%	98%	+$250	-$32,400	22.0%	3.1mo	$-32,400 (vs do-nothing $-32,500)	50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$12	21d	20 Nov 2026	$0.02	100/100	$200	$286	$286	98%hist 95%	4%hist 4%	98%	+$147	-$27,400	18.6%	2.6mo	$-27,400 (vs do-nothing $-27,500)	50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$12.50	28d	27 Nov 2026	$0.03	100/100	$300	$321	$321	98%hist 95%	4%hist 4%	98%	+$202	-$22,300	15.1%	2.1mo	$-22,300 (vs do-nothing $-22,400)	50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$10	7d	6 Nov 2026	$0.01	100/100	$100	$429	$429	98%hist 95%	4%hist 4%	98%	+$201	-$47,500	32.2%	4.5mo	$-47,500 (vs do-nothing $-47,600)	50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$11.50	21d	20 Nov 2026	$0.03	100/100	$300	$429	$429	98%hist 95%	5%hist 4%	98%	+$256	-$32,300	21.9%	3.1mo	$-32,300 (vs do-nothing $-32,400)	50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$11	14d	13 Nov 2026	$0.02	100/100	$200	$429	$429	98%hist 95%	5%hist 4%	98%	+$203	-$37,400	25.4%	3.6mo	$-37,400 (vs do-nothing $-37,500)	50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$12	28d	27 Nov 2026	$0.03	100/100	$300	$321	$321	97%hist 95%	6%hist 4%	97%	+$143	-$27,300	18.5%	2.6mo	$-27,300 (vs do-nothing $-27,400)	50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$9.50	7d	6 Nov 2026	$0.01	100/100	$100	$429	$429	97%hist 95%	6%hist 4%	97%	+$89	-$52,500	35.6%	5.0mo	$-52,500 (vs do-nothing $-52,600)	50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$11	21d	20 Nov 2026	$0.04	100/100	$400	$571	$571	97%hist 95%	6%hist 4%	97%	+$344	-$37,200	25.2%	3.5mo	$-37,200 (vs do-nothing $-37,300)	50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$11.50	28d	27 Nov 2026	$0.04	100/100	$400	$429	$429	97%hist 95%	7%hist 4%	97%	+$222	-$32,200	21.8%	3.1mo	$-32,200 (vs do-nothing $-32,300)	50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$10.50	14d	13 Nov 2026	$0.03	100/100	$300	$643	$643	97%hist 95%	7%hist 4%	97%	+$347	-$42,300	28.7%	4.0mo	$-42,300 (vs do-nothing $-42,400)	50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$10.50	21d	20 Nov 2026	$0.05	100/100	$500	$714	$714	96%hist 95%	9%hist 4%	96%	+$398	-$42,100	28.5%	4.0mo	$-42,100 (vs do-nothing $-42,200)	50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$10	14d	13 Nov 2026	$0.04	100/100	$400	$857	$857	96%hist 95%	9%hist 4%	96%	+$445	-$47,200	32.0%	4.5mo	$-47,200 (vs do-nothing $-47,300)	50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$11	28d	27 Nov 2026	$0.06	100/100	$600	$643	$643	96%hist 95%	9%hist 4%	96%	+$324	-$37,000	25.1%	3.5mo	$-37,000 (vs do-nothing $-37,100)	50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$9	7d	6 Nov 2026	$0.02	100/100	$200	$857	$857	96%hist 95%	9%hist 4%	96%	+$324	-$57,400	38.9%	5.5mo	$-57,400 (vs do-nothing $-57,500)	50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$10.50	28d	27 Nov 2026	$0.07	100/100	$700	$750	$750	95%hist 95%	11%hist 13%	95%	+$348	-$41,900	28.4%	4.0mo	$-41,900 (vs do-nothing $-42,000)	50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$10	21d	20 Nov 2026	$0.07	100/100	$700	$1,000	$1,000	94%hist 95%	12%hist 13%	95%	+$532	-$46,900	31.8%	4.5mo	$-46,900 (vs do-nothing $-47,000)	50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$9.50	14d	13 Nov 2026	$0.05	100/100	$500	$1,071	$1,071	94%hist 95%	12%hist 13%	94%	+$455	-$52,100	35.3%	5.0mo	$-52,100 (vs do-nothing $-52,200)	50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$8.50	7d	6 Nov 2026	$0.04	100/100	$400	$1,714	$1,714	93%hist 95%	14%hist 13%	93%	+$753	-$62,200	42.2%	5.9mo	$-62,200 (vs do-nothing $-62,300)	50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$10	28d	27 Nov 2026	$0.10	100/100	$1,000	$1,071	$1,071	93%hist 95%	15%hist 13%	93%	+$490	-$46,600	31.6%	4.4mo	$-46,600 (vs do-nothing $-46,700)	50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$9.50	21d	20 Nov 2026	$0.10	100/100	$1,000	$1,429	$1,429	92%hist 95%	17%hist 13%	93%	+$698	-$51,600	35.0%	4.9mo	$-51,600 (vs do-nothing $-51,700)	50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$9	14d	13 Nov 2026	$0.08	100/100	$800	$1,714	$1,714	92%hist 95%	18%hist 13%	92%	+$726	-$56,800	38.5%	5.4mo	$-56,800 (vs do-nothing $-56,900)	50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$9.50	28d	27 Nov 2026	$0.14	100/100	$1,400	$1,500	$1,500	90%hist 95%	21%hist 23%	91%	+$655	-$51,200	34.7%	4.9mo	$-51,200 (vs do-nothing $-51,300)	50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$9	21d	20 Nov 2026	$0.14	100/100	$1,400	$2,000	$2,000	89%hist 86%	24%hist 23%	90%	+$818	-$56,200	38.1%	5.4mo	$-56,200 (vs do-nothing $-56,300)	50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$8	7d	6 Nov 2026	$0.08	100/100	$800	$3,429	$3,429	87%hist 86%	26%hist 23%	89%	+$1,304	-$66,800	45.3%	6.4mo	$-66,800 (vs do-nothing $-66,900)	50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$8.50	14d	13 Nov 2026	$0.12	100/100	$1,200	$2,571	$2,571	87%hist 86%	27%hist 23%	89%	+$886	-$61,400	41.6%	5.8mo	$-61,400 (vs do-nothing $-61,500)	50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$9	28d	27 Nov 2026	$0.19	100/100	$1,900	$2,036	$2,036	87%hist 86%	28%hist 23%	89%	+$744	-$55,700	37.8%	5.3mo	$-55,700 (vs do-nothing $-55,800)	50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$8.50	21d	20 Nov 2026	$0.21	100/100	$2,100	$3,000	$3,000	84%hist 86%	34%hist 30%	86%	+$1,071	-$60,500	41.0%	5.8mo	$-60,500 (vs do-nothing $-60,600)	50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$8.50	28d	27 Nov 2026	$0.27	100/100	$2,700	$2,893	$2,893	82%hist 86%	38%hist 30%	85%	+$949	-$59,900	40.6%	5.7mo	$-59,900 (vs do-nothing $-60,000)	50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$8	14d	13 Nov 2026	$0.21	100/100	$2,100	$4,500	$4,500	81%hist 86%	41%hist 40%	84%	+$1,524	-$65,500	44.4%	6.2mo	$-65,500 (vs do-nothing $-65,600)	50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$8	21d	20 Nov 2026	$0.30	100/100	$3,000	$4,286	$4,286	78%hist 83%	48%hist 40%	82%	+$1,182	-$64,600	43.8%	6.2mo	$-64,600 (vs do-nothing $-64,700)	50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$8	28d	27 Nov 2026	$0.37	100/100	$3,700	$3,964	$3,964	77%hist 83%	51%hist 44%	81%	+$1,090	-$63,900	43.3%	6.1mo	$-63,900 (vs do-nothing $-64,000)	50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract

Per cycle = bid x 100 x contracts, the cash this expiry pays. Touch = P(strike trades before expiry), with the graded record's hist pill. Recover = months of this income to close the hole to CC-SS. Income/mo = FIGHT leg gross, DTE-prorated. Net/mo = FIGHT + conservative CC gross minus hedge cost. POP (mid) = probability stock closes at or below (strike + mid premium) at expiry, per-strike chain IV when available. Survival = CC expires fully worthless. EV/mo = premium minus expected buyback, monthly, with realized vol = IV x 85% (variance risk premium 15%). Survival, POP and touch use vol x 1.00 (raw implied: the VRP haircut is applied to the premium edge but NOT to risk, because understating the edge costs opportunity while understating breach odds costs capital; the risk-side haircut arms only from the graded ledger). Cap give-up @ SS = recovery mortgaged on a V-bounce to SS, net of premium. Total P&L @ SS = absolute position P&L if the stock closes at SS; "vs do-nothing" = opportunity cost against holding all 100 contracts at the conservative CC.

fortress_fight.py v6.3 | 2026-10-31 03:19