FORTRESS FIGHT: PORTFOLIO
3 fortress slices across 3 account(s) | 2 deep drawdown (FIGHT) | 1 underwater (not deep DD) | 0 uncapped above water | 0 capped (out of scope)
FIGHT income if all primaries filled: $29,520/mo (50% of normal target)
GENERATED2026-07-13 11:44
⚔ FIGHT: underwater & uncapped click a fortress for the full decision dashboard
| Fortress | Acct | Ct | Price | CC-SS | ↑ whole | 🎯 Recommended | Chal odds | Per cycle | Income/mo | Floor | Net/mo | Banked | POP | Cap @ CC-SS | Rec (mo) |
|---|
| MARA-LC20-1299 ↗ | Main:1299 | 200 | $12.37 | $16.94 | 36.9% | Sell 131 x $13.50 (4d) [This Fri] | 19% | $3,144 | $23,580 | 101% | $23,768 | - | 90% | -$41,900 (551.3% IC) | 0.9 |
| MARA-LC20-1782 ↗ | Joint:1782 | 50 | $12.37 | $16.72 | 35.2% | Sell 33 x $13.50 (4d) [This Fri] | 20% | $792 | $5,940 | 101% | $5,986 | - | 90% | -$9,841 (45.5% IC) | 0.8 |
| TOTAL (2) | | 250 | | | | | | $3,936 | $29,520 | 101% | $29,755 | - | | -$51,741 | |
UNDERWATER, but NOT a deep drawdown a CC at CC-SS still earns ≥20% of normal; sell the normal CC, no FIGHT below CC-SS needed
| Fortress | Acct | Ct | Price | CC-SS | ↑ whole | CC @ CC-SS income | Normal income | Action |
|---|
| MARA-LC25 ↗ | Neville:0865 | 250 | $12.37 | $13.72 | 10.9% | $32,045/mo (55%) | $58,636/mo | sell normal CC at/above CC-SS |
📏 CALIBRATION: 596 of 1600 predictions resolved since 2026-07-02, is the model honest?
| Predicted survival | N | Avg predicted | Realized OTM rate | Gap |
|---|
| 0-60% | 20 | 58% | 55% | -3pp |
| 60-70% | 63 | 64% | 68% | +4pp |
| 70-80% | 108 | 77% | 94% | +17pp |
| 80-90% | 158 | 85% | 99% | +14pp |
| 90-100% | 247 | 95% | 100% | +5pp |
Touch odds: predicted 32% avg vs realized 16% touch rate over 596 resolved (daily-close proxy, undercounts intraday touches).
🚪 Roll actuals vs playbook: 31 real buyback(s) recorded · 6 roll(s), net +$0.50/sh avg.
Green gap: within 7pp. A persistent negative gap means survival is overstated (model too confident); positive means too conservative. N is small early; judge after ~30 resolved.