FORTRESS FIGHT: MARA @ $11.17

BE SS: $16.75 | CC-SS: $10.49 | 400 contracts (40,000 sh) | ⌂ PORTFOLIO

MARA @ $11.17 UNDERWATER $5.58 (33.3% below BE SS)

400 contracts (40,000 sh) | BE SS: $16.75 | CC-SS: $10.49 | IV: HIGH | Accounts: Main:1299

LC: $13 exp 2028-01-21 (entry $3.752/sh)

Economics

Max Loss	$150,000	(ND $3.75 + SW $0) x 40000
Normal income ref	$47,143/mo	95% ann ROI on ML
Hedge (static, never rolled)	$0/mo	HP expiry = SP LEAPS; decay ≈ $0/mo (info only, already in marks)
Unrealized P&L	$19,000	fortress legs from IBKR

INCOME GOALPOSTS & VELOCITY

50% INCOME FLOOR
$23,571/mo

HEDGE COVER
$0/mo (static)

NORMAL INCOME
$47,143/mo (ATM CC, chain)

IC VELOCITY
3.2 mo to earn back $150,000

ML VELOCITY
3.2 mo to earn back $150,000

NOT a deep drawdown: a CC at CC-SS $10.49 (probe: $11C 14d) still earns $47,143/mo (100% of normal). Sell the normal CC at/above CC-SS; a FIGHT CC below it is not needed here.

🏦 Campaign ledger: seeded, nothing tracked yet. Open short calls and banked credits appear here from the next cycle on; the banked-floor (info) shows how far premium would ratchet the floor, but the recommended CC-SS stays the pure recovery strike.

TECHNICALS (cc_timing weekly gate + daily trigger)

WEEKLYNEUTRAL · %B 32 (live) · RSI 48 · MACD bearish, hist rising

DAILYMIXED (provisional) · RSI 51 · %B 67 · hist falling (nightly)

LEVELSUpper BB (CC ceiling) $15.07 (+35%) · daily UBB $12.42 · 1-wk expected move ±$1 (chain IV)

SETUPNo tilt: engine default. (advisory; floors and picks are chain-only)

⚠ Next earnings 2026-11-04: candidates whose expiry crosses it are flagged in the spectrum; EV is unreliable across earnings.

NOT a deep drawdown. A CC at/above CC-SS $10.49 keeps this fortress whole if assigned, so there is no need to FIGHT below it. Three income options to consider, richer → safer, all at/above CC-SS. Click a card for its if-challenged roll menu.

💰 Richer · sell 400 × $12 11 Sep 2026 (14d) · more income, lower survivalroll menu if challenged ▾

Survival (stays ≤ $12)

71%

Touch odds

62%

Per cycle

$14,400

Income / mo

$30,857

Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 400 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 7 of 14); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic

Buyback gross: $0.76/sh now → $0.54 mid-life (likely $0.63–$0.86) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.36/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.18/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours

📊 Across 1,543 simulated challenges: the $12 strike is typically first touched on day 5 of 14, at $12 (overshoots $0.29). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (400 ct)	POP / surv of new CC
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$12	18 Sep 2026	14d left	+$0.23/sh	+$9,162 cycle +$23,562 [+$7,786…+$9,689] · 100% credit	68% surv 53%
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)	~$12	18 Sep 2026	14d left	+$0.09/sh	+$3,582 cycle +$17,982 [+$1,667…+$3,392] · 99% credit	71% surv 60%
Max even-money escape in the band	~$13	25 Sep 2026	21d left	+$0.10/sh	+$4,020 cycle +$18,420 [+$844…+$3,447] · 91% credit	75% surv 67%
SS $17 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)	~$15	25 Sep 2026	21d left	-$0.35/sh	-$14,192 cycle +$208 [-$22,173…-$16,617]	90% surv 89%
budget: banked $14,400 debit $14,192 (99% used ≈ 2.0 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$208 cash · rolled 400 ct earn ≈ $10,618/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell

POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP.

Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened.

🎯 Recommended · sell 400 × $12.50 4 Sep 2026 (7d) · richest strike still ≥80% survivalroll menu if challenged ▾

Survival (stays ≤ $12.50)

84%

Touch odds

34%

Per cycle

$4,800

Income / mo

$20,571

Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 400 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 7); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic

Buyback gross: $0.58/sh now → $0.41 mid-life (likely $0.39–$0.65) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.12/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.29/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours

📊 Across 623 simulated challenges: the $12 strike is typically first touched on day 4 of 7, at $13 (overshoots $0.30). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (400 ct)	POP / surv of new CC
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$12	11 Sep 2026	10d left	+$0.27/sh	+$10,616 cycle +$15,416 [+$9,631…+$12,592] · 100% credit	67% surv 53%
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)	~$13	11 Sep 2026	10d left	+$0.13/sh	+$5,373 cycle +$10,173 [+$3,839…+$7,055] · 99% credit	71% surv 60%
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)	~$14	25 Sep 2026	24d left	+$0.09/sh	+$3,757 cycle +$8,557 [+$222…+$5,407] · 77% credit	80% surv 76%
Max even-money escape in the band	~$15	25 Sep 2026	24d left	+$0.02/sh	+$736 cycle +$5,536 [-$3,220…+$2,077] · 41% credit	83% surv 80%
SS $17 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)	~$15	25 Sep 2026	24d left	-$0.07/sh	-$2,992 cycle +$1,808 [-$8,034…-$2,122] · 13% credit	86% surv 83%
budget: banked $4,800 debit $2,992 (62% used ≈ 0.6 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$1,808 cash · rolled 400 ct earn ≈ $16,911/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell

🛡 Safer · sell 400 × $13 4 Sep 2026 (7d) · higher survival, lighter premiumroll menu if challenged ▾

Survival (stays ≤ $13)

90%

Touch odds

21%

Per cycle

$2,800

Income / mo

$12,000

Buyback gross: $0.62/sh now → $0.44 mid-life (likely $0.37–$0.62) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.07/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.37/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours

📊 Across 314 simulated challenges: the $13 strike is typically first touched on day 5 of 7, at $13 (overshoots $0.29). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (400 ct)	POP / surv of new CC
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$13	11 Sep 2026	10d left	+$0.28/sh	+$11,322 cycle +$14,122 [+$10,781…+$15,058] · 100% credit	67% surv 53%
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)	~$13	11 Sep 2026	10d left	+$0.15/sh	+$6,106 cycle +$8,906 [+$5,392…+$9,082] · 100% credit	71% surv 60%
Max even-money escape in the band	~$15	25 Sep 2026	24d left	+$0.05/sh	+$2,041 cycle +$4,841 [-$492…+$4,944] · 69% credit	82% surv 79%
SS $17 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)	~$16	25 Sep 2026	24d left	-$0.05/sh	-$1,984 cycle +$816 [-$5,316…+$911] · 32% credit	85% surv 82%
budget: banked $2,800 debit $1,984 (71% used ≈ 0.7 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$816 cash · rolled 400 ct earn ≈ $19,554/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell

⚔ FIGHT CC options · full candidate scan (12 clear the floor), click to expand

Every eligible strike x expiry in the 4-45 DTE band (4 expiries scanned, 12 clear the income floor), each sized to the minimum contracts that clear it. Sorted by survival (safest first): the primary 🎯 is the safest; rows below trade safety for income.

Fortress delta: 0.668 (IBKR) | Recovery@SS: +$0 (un-capped fortress gain if stock rallies to SS) | Do-nothing @ SS: $20,600

Strike	DTE	Expiry	Bid	Sell	Income/mo	Net/mo	Survival	POP (mid)	EV/mo	Cap Give-up @ CC-SS	%IC	Total P&L @ SS
$12	7d	4 Sep 2026	$0.21	262/400	$23,580	$24,369	75%	79%	+$5,458	-$0	0.0%	$25,054 (vs do-nothing +$4,454)
$12	14d	11 Sep 2026	$0.36	306/400	$23,606	$24,143	71%	77%	+$5,206	-$0	0.0%	$30,392 (vs do-nothing +$9,792)
$12	21d	18 Sep 2026	$0.54	306/400	$23,606	$24,143	68%	76%	+$5,007	-$0	0.0%	$35,900 (vs do-nothing +$15,300)
$12	28d	25 Sep 2026	$0.67	329/400	$23,618	$24,023	67%	75%	+$4,518	-$0	0.0%	$41,327 (vs do-nothing +$20,727)
$11.50	7d	4 Sep 2026	$0.34	162/400	$23,606	$24,966	62%	72%	+$3,105	-$0	0.0%	$25,460 (vs do-nothing +$4,860)
$11.50	14d	11 Sep 2026	$0.52	212/400	$23,623	$24,697	61%	71%	+$3,815	-$0	0.0%	$30,776 (vs do-nothing +$10,176)
$11.50	21d	18 Sep 2026	$0.70	236/400	$23,600	$24,537	60%	71%	+$3,636	-$0	0.0%	$36,176 (vs do-nothing +$15,576)
$11.50	28d	25 Sep 2026	$0.84	262/400	$23,580	$24,369	60%	71%	+$3,554	-$0	0.0%	$41,560 (vs do-nothing +$20,960)
$11	28d	25 Sep 2026	$1.07	206/400	$23,616	$24,725	52%	68%	+$3,104	-$0	0.0%	$41,818 (vs do-nothing +$21,218)
$11	21d	18 Sep 2026	$0.91	182/400	$23,660	$24,906	51%	67%	+$2,410	-$0	0.0%	$36,434 (vs do-nothing +$15,834)
$11	14d	11 Sep 2026	$0.72	153/400	$23,606	$25,017	49%	65%	+$1,166	-$0	0.0%	$31,004 (vs do-nothing +$10,404)
$11	7d	4 Sep 2026	$0.55	100/400	$23,571	$25,286	47%	64%	+$1,758	-$0	0.0%	$25,700 (vs do-nothing +$5,100)

Income/mo = FIGHT leg gross, DTE-prorated. Net/mo = FIGHT + conservative CC gross minus hedge cost. POP (mid) = probability stock closes at or below (strike + mid premium) at expiry, per-strike chain IV when available. Survival = CC expires fully worthless. EV/mo = premium minus expected buyback, monthly, with realized vol = IV x 85% (variance risk premium 15%). Survival, POP and touch use vol x 1.00 (raw implied: the VRP haircut is applied to the premium edge but NOT to risk, because understating the edge costs opportunity while understating breach odds costs capital; the risk-side haircut arms only from the graded ledger). Cap give-up @ SS = recovery mortgaged on a V-bounce to SS, net of premium. Total P&L @ SS = absolute position P&L if the stock closes at SS; "vs do-nothing" = opportunity cost against holding all 400 contracts at the conservative CC.

fortress_fight.py v6.3 | 2026-08-28 22:49