FORTRESS FIGHT: MARA @ $6.47

BE SS: $26.31 | CC-SS: $6.80 | 500 contracts (50,000 sh) | ⌂ PORTFOLIO

MARAMAX 125 @ $6.47 UNDERWATER $19.84 (75.4% below BE SS)

⚠ EARNINGS · SHORT EXPIRY ONLY

MARA reports 2026-11-09 (Mon), in 7 days. The recommended CC (4d) closes BEFORE earnings , that one is safe , but the richer/longer options below expire after it and would sell through the gap. Keep the tenor inside 2026-11-09.

500 contracts (50,000 sh) | BE SS: $26.31 | CC-SS: $6.80 | IV: HIGH | Accounts: Neville:0865

LC: $25 exp 2028-12-15 (entry $1.313/sh)

Economics

Max Loss	$65,500	(ND $1.31 + SW $0) x 50000
Normal income ref	$76,364/mo	95% ann ROI on ML
Hedge (static, never rolled)	$0/mo	HP expiry = SP LEAPS; decay ≈ $0/mo (info only, already in marks)
Unrealized P&L	$-5,250	fortress legs from IBKR

INCOME GOALPOSTS & VELOCITY

50% INCOME FLOOR
$38,182/mo

HEDGE COVER
$0/mo (static)

NORMAL INCOME
$76,364/mo (ATM CC, chain)

IC VELOCITY
0.9 mo to earn back $65,500

ML VELOCITY
0.9 mo to earn back $65,500

NOT a deep drawdown: a CC at CC-SS $6.80 (probe: $7C 11d) still earns $49,091/mo (64% of normal). Sell the normal CC at/above CC-SS; a FIGHT CC below it is not needed here.

🏦 Campaign ledger: seeded, nothing tracked yet. Open short calls and banked credits appear here from the next cycle on; the banked-floor (info) shows how far premium would ratchet the floor, but the recommended CC-SS stays the pure recovery strike.

TECHNICALS (cc_timing weekly gate + daily trigger)

WEEKLYOVERSOLD · %B 3 (live) · RSI 35 · MACD bearish, hist falling

DAILYFALLING (provisional) · RSI 25 · %B 20 · hist rising (nightly)

LEVELS20W MA (bounce target) $10.63 (+64%) · daily UBB $10.21 · 1-wk expected move ±$1 (chain IV)

SETUPSpring loaded, not ignited: 🎯 or 💎 at short DTE, normal tripwires. (advisory; floors and picks are chain-only)

⚠ Next earnings 2026-11-09: candidates whose expiry crosses it are flagged in the spectrum; EV is unreliable across earnings.

NOT a deep drawdown. A CC at/above CC-SS $6.80 keeps this fortress whole if assigned, so there is no need to FIGHT below it. Three income options to consider, richer → safer, all at/above CC-SS. Click a card for its if-challenged roll menu.

💰 Richer · sell 500 × $7 13 Nov 2026 (11d) · more income, lower survivalroll menu if challenged ▾

Survival (stays ≤ $7)

68%

Touch odds

70%

Per cycle

$18,000

Income / mo

$49,091

Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 500 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 5 of 11); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic

Buyback gross: $0.66/sh now → $0.47 mid-life (likely $0.59–$0.81) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.36/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.11/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours

📊 Across 1,660 simulated challenges: the $7 strike is typically first touched on day 4 of 11, at $7 (overshoots $0.28). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (500 ct)	POP / surv of new CC
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$7	20 Nov 2026	12d left	+$0.16/sh	+$7,793 cycle +$25,793 [+$4,819…+$7,710] · 100% credit	69% surv 54%
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)	~$7	20 Nov 2026	12d left	+$0.15/sh	+$7,738 cycle +$25,738 [+$5,007…+$7,756] · 100% credit	69% surv 55%
Max even-money escape in the band	~$8	27 Nov 2026	20d left	+$0.05/sh	+$2,466 cycle +$20,466 [-$3,973…+$483] · 28% credit	73% surv 65%
SS $26 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)	~$10	27 Nov 2026	20d left	-$0.35/sh	-$17,383 cycle +$617 [-$28,882…-$21,537]	91% surv 90%
budget: banked $18,000 debit $17,383 (97% used ≈ 1.5 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$617 cash · rolled 500 ct earn ≈ $9,128/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell

POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP.

Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened.

🎯 Recommended · sell 500 × $7.50 6 Nov 2026 (4d) · richest strike still ≥80% survivalroll menu if challenged ▾

Survival (stays ≤ $7.50)

85%

Touch odds

31%

Per cycle

$4,500

Income / mo

$33,750

Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 500 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 2 of 4); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic

Buyback gross: $0.51/sh now → $0.36 mid-life (likely $0.37–$0.63) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.09/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.27/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours

📊 Across 623 simulated challenges: the $8 strike is typically first touched on day 3 of 4, at $8 (overshoots $0.32). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (500 ct)	POP / surv of new CC
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$8	13 Nov 2026	9d left	+$0.27/sh	+$13,258 cycle +$17,758 [+$12,027…+$16,487] · 100% credit	68% surv 54%
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)	~$9	27 Nov 2026	23d left	+$0.13/sh	+$6,520 cycle +$11,020 [+$917…+$8,611] · 79% credit	76% surv 71%
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)	~$8	13 Nov 2026	9d left	+$0.06/sh	+$3,038 cycle +$7,538 [-$499…+$4,947] · 71% credit	75% surv 66%
Max even-money escape in the band	~$9	20 Nov 2026	16d left	+$0.06/sh	+$2,994 cycle +$7,494 [-$1,215…+$5,249] · 66% credit	79% surv 73%
SS $26 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)	~$9	20 Nov 2026	16d left	-$0.07/sh	-$3,317 cycle +$1,183 [-$9,592…-$1,930] · 15% credit	83% surv 80%
budget: banked $4,500 debit $3,317 (74% used ≈ 0.4 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$1,183 cash · rolled 500 ct earn ≈ $27,388/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell

🛡 Safer · sell 500 × $9 27 Nov 2026 (25d) · higher survival, lighter premiumroll menu if challenged ▾

Survival (stays ≤ $9)

90%

Touch odds

21%

Per cycle

$6,500

Income / mo

$7,800

⚔ FIGHT CC options · full candidate scan (7 clear the floor), click to expand

Every eligible strike x expiry in the 4-45 DTE band (4 expiries scanned, 7 clear the income floor), each sized to the minimum contracts that clear it. Sorted by survival (safest first): the primary 🎯 is the safest; rows below trade safety for income.

Fortress delta: 0.365 (IBKR) | Recovery@SS: +$5,977 (un-capped fortress gain if stock rallies to SS) | Do-nothing @ SS: $1,227

Strike	DTE	Expiry	Bid	Sell	Per cycle	Income/mo	Net/mo	Survival	Touch	POP (mid)	EV/mo	Cap Give-up @ CC-SS	%IC	Recover	Total P&L @ SS
$7	4d	6 Nov 2026	$0.20	500/500	$10,000	$75,000	$75,000	72%hist 83%	58%hist 45%	78%	+$20,230	-$0	0.0%	0.0mo	$10,727 (vs do-nothing +$9,500)
$7	11d	13 Nov 2026	$0.36	500/500	$18,000	$49,091	$49,091	68%hist 66%	70%hist 55%	76%	+$9,849	-$0	0.0%	0.0mo	$18,727 (vs do-nothing +$17,500)
$7	18d	20 Nov 2026	$0.46	500/500	$23,000	$38,333	$38,333	67%hist 66%	73%hist 67%	75%	+$7,744	-$0	0.0%	0.0mo	$23,727 (vs do-nothing +$22,500)
$6.50	25d	27 Nov 2026	$0.73	500/500	$36,500	$43,800	$43,800	57%hist 69%	99%hist 89%	69%	+$527	-$0	0.0%	0.0mo	$22,351 (vs do-nothing +$21,124)
$6.50	18d	20 Nov 2026	$0.67	500/500	$33,500	$55,833	$55,833	56%hist 69%	98%hist 89%	70%	+$8,424	-$0	0.0%	0.0mo	$19,351 (vs do-nothing +$18,124)
$6.50	11d	13 Nov 2026	$0.56	500/500	$28,000	$76,364	$76,364	55%hist 69%	98%hist 89%	69%	+$11,453	-$0	0.0%	0.0mo	$13,851 (vs do-nothing +$12,624)
$6.50	4d	6 Nov 2026	$0.37	500/500	$18,500	$138,750	$138,750	54%hist 69%	97%hist 89%	68%	+$17,540	-$0	0.0%	0.0mo	$4,351 (vs do-nothing +$3,124)

50 more priced, not eligible (safety, income floor or quote screens): shown for reference

Strike	DTE	Expiry	Bid	Sell	Per cycle	Income/mo	Net/mo	Survival	Touch	POP (mid)	EV/mo	Cap Give-up @ CC-SS	%IC	Recover	Total P&L @ SS	Why not eligible
$15	18d	20 Nov 2026	$0.01	500/500	$500	$833	$833	99+%hist 96%	0%hist 3%	100%	+$820	-$0	0.0%	0.0mo	$1,227 (vs do-nothing +$0)	50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$17	25d	27 Nov 2026	$0.01	500/500	$500	$600	$600	99+%hist 96%	0%hist 3%	100%	+$584	-$0	0.0%	0.0mo	$1,227 (vs do-nothing +$0)	50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$12	11d	13 Nov 2026	$0.01	500/500	$500	$1,364	$1,364	99+%hist 96%	0%hist 3%	100%	+$1,329	-$0	0.0%	0.0mo	$1,227 (vs do-nothing +$0)	50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$16	25d	27 Nov 2026	$0.01	500/500	$500	$600	$600	99+%hist 96%	0%hist 3%	100%	+$564	-$0	0.0%	0.0mo	$1,227 (vs do-nothing +$0)	50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$14	18d	20 Nov 2026	$0.01	500/500	$500	$833	$833	99+%hist 96%	0%hist 3%	100%	+$795	-$0	0.0%	0.0mo	$1,227 (vs do-nothing +$0)	50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$15.50	25d	27 Nov 2026	$0.01	500/500	$500	$600	$600	99+%hist 96%	1%hist 3%	100%	+$548	-$0	0.0%	0.0mo	$1,227 (vs do-nothing +$0)	50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$13.50	18d	20 Nov 2026	$0.01	500/500	$500	$833	$833	99+%hist 96%	1%hist 3%	100%	+$768	-$0	0.0%	0.0mo	$1,227 (vs do-nothing +$0)	50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$11.50	11d	13 Nov 2026	$0.01	500/500	$500	$1,364	$1,364	99+%hist 96%	1%hist 3%	100%	+$1,286	-$0	0.0%	0.0mo	$1,227 (vs do-nothing +$0)	50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$15	25d	27 Nov 2026	$0.01	500/500	$500	$600	$600	99+%hist 96%	1%hist 3%	100%	+$523	-$0	0.0%	0.0mo	$1,227 (vs do-nothing +$0)	50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$13	18d	20 Nov 2026	$0.01	500/500	$500	$833	$833	99+%hist 96%	1%hist 3%	100%	+$723	-$0	0.0%	0.0mo	$1,227 (vs do-nothing +$0)	50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$14.50	25d	27 Nov 2026	$0.01	500/500	$500	$600	$600	99%hist 96%	1%hist 3%	99%	+$486	-$0	0.0%	0.0mo	$1,227 (vs do-nothing +$0)	50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$11	11d	13 Nov 2026	$0.01	500/500	$500	$1,364	$1,364	99%hist 96%	1%hist 3%	99%	+$1,194	-$0	0.0%	0.0mo	$1,227 (vs do-nothing +$0)	50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$14	25d	27 Nov 2026	$0.01	500/500	$500	$600	$600	99%hist 96%	1%hist 3%	99%	+$431	-$0	0.0%	0.0mo	$1,227 (vs do-nothing +$0)	50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$12.50	18d	20 Nov 2026	$0.02	500/500	$1,000	$1,667	$1,667	99%hist 96%	2%hist 3%	99%	+$1,482	-$0	0.0%	0.0mo	$1,727 (vs do-nothing +$500)	50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$13.50	25d	27 Nov 2026	$0.02	500/500	$1,000	$1,200	$1,200	99%hist 96%	2%hist 3%	99%	+$949	-$0	0.0%	0.0mo	$1,727 (vs do-nothing +$500)	50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$12.50	11d	13 Nov 2026	$0.01	500/500	$500	$1,364	$1,364	99%hist 96%	2%hist 3%	99%	+$805	-$0	0.0%	0.0mo	$1,227 (vs do-nothing +$0)	50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$12	18d	20 Nov 2026	$0.02	500/500	$1,000	$1,667	$1,667	99%hist 96%	2%hist 3%	99%	+$1,356	-$0	0.0%	0.0mo	$1,727 (vs do-nothing +$500)	50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$10.50	11d	13 Nov 2026	$0.02	500/500	$1,000	$2,727	$2,727	99%hist 96%	2%hist 3%	99%	+$2,360	-$0	0.0%	0.0mo	$1,727 (vs do-nothing +$500)	50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$13	25d	27 Nov 2026	$0.02	500/500	$1,000	$1,200	$1,200	99%hist 96%	3%hist 3%	99%	+$829	-$0	0.0%	0.0mo	$1,727 (vs do-nothing +$500)	50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$11.50	18d	20 Nov 2026	$0.02	500/500	$1,000	$1,667	$1,667	98%hist 96%	3%hist 3%	98%	+$1,146	-$0	0.0%	0.0mo	$1,727 (vs do-nothing +$500)	50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$12.50	25d	27 Nov 2026	$0.02	500/500	$1,000	$1,200	$1,200	98%hist 96%	4%hist 3%	98%	+$651	-$0	0.0%	0.0mo	$1,727 (vs do-nothing +$500)	50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$9	4d	6 Nov 2026	$0.01	500/500	$500	$3,750	$3,750	98%hist 96%	4%hist 3%	98%	+$2,558	-$0	0.0%	0.0mo	$1,227 (vs do-nothing +$0)	50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$10	11d	13 Nov 2026	$0.02	500/500	$1,000	$2,727	$2,727	98%hist 96%	4%hist 3%	98%	+$1,948	-$0	0.0%	0.0mo	$1,727 (vs do-nothing +$500)	50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$12	25d	27 Nov 2026	$0.03	500/500	$1,500	$1,800	$1,800	98%hist 96%	5%hist 3%	98%	+$989	-$0	0.0%	0.0mo	$2,227 (vs do-nothing +$1,000)	50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$11	18d	20 Nov 2026	$0.03	500/500	$1,500	$2,500	$2,500	98%hist 96%	5%hist 3%	98%	+$1,634	-$0	0.0%	0.0mo	$2,227 (vs do-nothing +$1,000)	50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$11.50	25d	27 Nov 2026	$0.03	500/500	$1,500	$1,800	$1,800	97%hist 96%	6%hist 3%	97%	+$603	-$0	0.0%	0.0mo	$2,227 (vs do-nothing +$1,000)	50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$10.50	18d	20 Nov 2026	$0.03	500/500	$1,500	$2,500	$2,500	97%hist 96%	7%hist 3%	97%	+$1,054	-$0	0.0%	0.0mo	$2,227 (vs do-nothing +$1,000)	50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$9.50	11d	13 Nov 2026	$0.03	500/500	$1,500	$4,091	$4,091	97%hist 96%	7%hist 3%	97%	+$2,469	-$0	0.0%	0.0mo	$2,227 (vs do-nothing +$1,000)	50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$8.50	4d	6 Nov 2026	$0.02	500/500	$1,000	$7,500	$7,500	96%hist 96%	8%hist 3%	96%	+$3,888	-$0	0.0%	0.0mo	$1,727 (vs do-nothing +$500)	50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$11	25d	27 Nov 2026	$0.04	500/500	$2,000	$2,400	$2,400	96%hist 96%	9%hist 3%	96%	+$638	-$0	0.0%	0.0mo	$2,727 (vs do-nothing +$1,500)	50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$10	18d	20 Nov 2026	$0.05	500/500	$2,500	$4,167	$4,167	96%hist 96%	9%hist 3%	96%	+$2,141	-$0	0.0%	0.0mo	$3,227 (vs do-nothing +$2,000)	50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$10.50	25d	27 Nov 2026	$0.05	500/500	$2,500	$3,000	$3,000	95%hist 96%	12%hist 13%	95%	+$412	-$0	0.0%	0.0mo	$3,227 (vs do-nothing +$2,000)	50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$9	11d	13 Nov 2026	$0.05	500/500	$2,500	$6,818	$6,818	94%hist 96%	12%hist 13%	94%	+$3,231	-$0	0.0%	0.0mo	$3,227 (vs do-nothing +$2,000)	50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$9.50	18d	20 Nov 2026	$0.07	500/500	$3,500	$5,833	$5,833	94%hist 96%	13%hist 13%	94%	+$2,859	-$0	0.0%	0.0mo	$4,227 (vs do-nothing +$3,000)	50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$10	25d	27 Nov 2026	$0.07	500/500	$3,500	$4,200	$4,200	93%hist 96%	16%hist 13%	93%	+$415	-$0	0.0%	0.0mo	$4,227 (vs do-nothing +$3,000)	50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$8	4d	6 Nov 2026	$0.04	500/500	$2,000	$15,000	$15,000	92%hist 96%	16%hist 13%	93%	+$6,249	-$0	0.0%	0.0mo	$2,727 (vs do-nothing +$1,500)	50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$9	18d	20 Nov 2026	$0.10	500/500	$5,000	$8,333	$8,333	92%hist 96%	18%hist 13%	92%	+$3,770	-$0	0.0%	0.0mo	$5,727 (vs do-nothing +$4,500)	50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$8.50	11d	13 Nov 2026	$0.09	500/500	$4,500	$12,273	$12,273	91%hist 96%	19%hist 13%	92%	+$5,790	-$0	0.0%	0.0mo	$5,227 (vs do-nothing +$4,000)	50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$9.50	25d	27 Nov 2026	$0.09	500/500	$4,500	$5,400	$5,400	91%hist 96%	21%hist 22%	91%	$-108	-$0	0.0%	0.0mo	$5,227 (vs do-nothing +$4,000)	50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$9	25d	27 Nov 2026	$0.13	500/500	$6,500	$7,800	$7,800	90%hist 96%	21%hist 22%	91%	+$3,285	-$0	0.0%	0.0mo	$7,227 (vs do-nothing +$6,000)	50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$8.50	18d	20 Nov 2026	$0.14	500/500	$7,000	$11,667	$11,667	88%hist 86%	26%hist 22%	89%	+$4,434	-$0	0.0%	0.0mo	$7,727 (vs do-nothing +$6,500)	50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$8	11d	13 Nov 2026	$0.14	500/500	$7,000	$19,091	$19,091	86%hist 86%	31%hist 31%	87%	+$6,762	-$0	0.0%	0.0mo	$7,727 (vs do-nothing +$6,500)	50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$7.50	4d	6 Nov 2026	$0.09	500/500	$4,500	$33,750	$33,750	85%hist 86%	31%hist 31%	87%	+$12,627	-$0	0.0%	0.0mo	$5,227 (vs do-nothing +$4,000)	50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$8.50	25d	27 Nov 2026	$0.18	500/500	$9,000	$10,800	$10,800	84%hist 86%	36%hist 31%	85%	$-631	-$0	0.0%	0.0mo	$9,727 (vs do-nothing +$8,500)	50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$8	18d	20 Nov 2026	$0.21	500/500	$10,500	$17,500	$17,500	83%hist 86%	37%hist 31%	85%	+$5,822	-$0	0.0%	0.0mo	$11,227 (vs do-nothing +$10,000)	50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$8	25d	27 Nov 2026	$0.26	500/500	$13,000	$15,600	$15,600	79%hist 83%	47%hist 40%	82%	$-652	-$0	0.0%	0.0mo	$13,727 (vs do-nothing +$12,500)	50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$7.50	11d	13 Nov 2026	$0.22	500/500	$11,000	$30,000	$30,000	78%hist 83%	47%hist 40%	82%	+$7,486	-$0	0.0%	0.0mo	$11,727 (vs do-nothing +$10,500)	50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$7.50	18d	20 Nov 2026	$0.32	500/500	$16,000	$26,667	$26,667	76%hist 83%	53%hist 45%	81%	+$7,635	-$0	0.0%	0.0mo	$16,727 (vs do-nothing +$15,500)	50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$7.50	25d	27 Nov 2026	$0.38	500/500	$19,000	$22,800	$22,800	73%hist 83%	61%hist 55%	78%	$-47	-$0	0.0%	0.0mo	$19,727 (vs do-nothing +$18,500)	50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$7	25d	27 Nov 2026	$0.53	500/500	$26,500	$31,800	$31,800	66%hist 66%	78%hist 67%	73%	+$110	-$0	0.0%	0.0mo	$27,227 (vs do-nothing +$26,000)	50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract

Per cycle = bid x 100 x contracts, the cash this expiry pays. Touch = P(strike trades before expiry), with the graded record's hist pill. Recover = months of this income to close the hole to CC-SS. Income/mo = FIGHT leg gross, DTE-prorated. Net/mo = FIGHT + conservative CC gross minus hedge cost. POP (mid) = probability stock closes at or below (strike + mid premium) at expiry, per-strike chain IV when available. Survival = CC expires fully worthless. EV/mo = premium minus expected buyback, monthly, with realized vol = IV x 85% (variance risk premium 15%). Survival, POP and touch use vol x 1.00 (raw implied: the VRP haircut is applied to the premium edge but NOT to risk, because understating the edge costs opportunity while understating breach odds costs capital; the risk-side haircut arms only from the graded ledger). Cap give-up @ SS = recovery mortgaged on a V-bounce to SS, net of premium. Total P&L @ SS = absolute position P&L if the stock closes at SS; "vs do-nothing" = opportunity cost against holding all 500 contracts at the conservative CC.

fortress_fight.py v6.3 | 2026-11-03 04:10