FORTRESS FIGHT: MARA @ $7.08

BE SS: $26.31 | CC-SS: $6.91 | 500 contracts (50,000 sh) | ⌂ PORTFOLIO

MARAMAX 125 @ $7.08 UNDERWATER $19.23 (73.1% below BE SS)

⚠ EARNINGS · SHORT EXPIRY ONLY

MARA reports 2026-11-09 (Mon), in 6 days. The recommended CC (3d) closes BEFORE earnings , that one is safe , but the richer/longer options below expire after it and would sell through the gap. Keep the tenor inside 2026-11-09.

500 contracts (50,000 sh) | BE SS: $26.31 | CC-SS: $6.91 | IV: HIGH | Accounts: Neville:0865

LC: $25 exp 2028-12-15 (entry $1.313/sh)

Economics

Max Loss	$65,500	(ND $1.31 + SW $0) x 50000
Normal income ref	$60,882/mo	95% ann ROI on ML
Hedge (static, never rolled)	$0/mo	HP expiry = SP LEAPS; decay ≈ $0/mo (info only, already in marks)
Unrealized P&L	$4,000	fortress legs from IBKR

INCOME GOALPOSTS & VELOCITY

50% INCOME FLOOR
$30,441/mo

HEDGE COVER
$0/mo (static)

NORMAL INCOME
$60,882/mo (ATM CC, chain)

IC VELOCITY
1.1 mo to earn back $65,500

ML VELOCITY
1.1 mo to earn back $65,500

NOT a deep drawdown: a CC at CC-SS $6.91 (probe: $7C 17d) still earns $60,882/mo (100% of normal). Sell the normal CC at/above CC-SS; a FIGHT CC below it is not needed here.

🏦 Campaign ledger: seeded, nothing tracked yet. Open short calls and banked credits appear here from the next cycle on; the banked-floor (info) shows how far premium would ratchet the floor, but the recommended CC-SS stays the pure recovery strike.

TECHNICALS (cc_timing weekly gate + daily trigger)

WEEKLYPULLBACK · %B 8 (live) · RSI 37 · MACD bearish, hist falling

DAILYFALLING (provisional) · RSI 35 · %B 33 · hist rising (nightly)

LEVELS20W MA (bounce target) $10.66 (+51%) · daily UBB $9.74 · 1-wk expected move ±$1 (chain IV)

SETUPSpring loaded, not ignited: 🎯 or 💎 at short DTE, normal tripwires. (advisory; floors and picks are chain-only)

⚠ Next earnings 2026-11-09: candidates whose expiry crosses it are flagged in the spectrum; EV is unreliable across earnings.

NOT a deep drawdown. A CC at/above CC-SS $6.91 keeps this fortress whole if assigned, so there is no need to FIGHT below it. Three income options to consider, richer → safer, all at/above CC-SS. Click a card for its if-challenged roll menu.

💰 Richer · sell 500 × $7.50 6 Nov 2026 (3d) · more income, lower survivalroll menu if challenged ▾

Survival (stays ≤ $7.50)

69%

Touch odds

66%

Per cycle

$11,500

Income / mo

$115,000

Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 500 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 1 of 3); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic

Buyback gross: $0.44/sh now → $0.31 mid-life (likely $0.40–$0.69) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.23/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.08/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours

📊 Across 1,318 simulated challenges: the $8 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 3, at $8 (overshoots $0.38). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (500 ct)	POP / surv of new CC
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$8	13 Nov 2026	8d left	+$0.30/sh	+$15,093 cycle +$26,593 [+$13,210…+$16,632] · 100% credit	69% surv 54%
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)	~$8	27 Nov 2026	22d left	+$0.18/sh	+$8,775 cycle +$20,275 [+$2,860…+$8,229] · 88% credit	78% surv 71%
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)	~$8	13 Nov 2026	8d left	+$0.12/sh	+$5,814 cycle +$17,314 [+$1,224…+$5,326] · 84% credit	74% surv 65%
Max even-money escape in the band	~$9	27 Nov 2026	22d left	+$0.04/sh	+$2,049 cycle +$13,549 [-$6,070…+$76] · 25% credit	82% surv 78%
SS $26 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)	~$10	27 Nov 2026	22d left	-$0.17/sh	-$8,632 cycle +$2,868 [-$21,709…-$11,585]	92% surv 91%
budget: banked $11,500 debit $8,632 (75% used ≈ 0.3 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$2,868 cash · rolled 500 ct earn ≈ $9,538/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell

POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP.

Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened.

🎯 Recommended · sell 500 × $8 6 Nov 2026 (3d) · richest strike still ≥80% survivalroll menu if challenged ▾

Survival (stays ≤ $8)

83%

Touch odds

35%

Per cycle

$5,000

Income / mo

$50,000

Buyback gross: $0.48/sh now → $0.34 mid-life (likely $0.37–$0.63) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.10/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.24/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours

📊 Across 662 simulated challenges: the $8 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 3, at $8 (overshoots $0.34). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (500 ct)	POP / surv of new CC
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$8	13 Nov 2026	8d left	+$0.33/sh	+$16,595 cycle +$21,595 [+$14,971…+$18,788] · 100% credit	69% surv 54%
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)	~$8	13 Nov 2026	8d left	+$0.14/sh	+$7,191 cycle +$12,191 [+$4,209…+$8,776] · 94% credit	74% surv 64%
Max even-money escape in the band	~$9	27 Nov 2026	22d left	+$0.08/sh	+$4,130 cycle +$9,130 [-$1,097…+$5,632] · 66% credit	81% surv 77%
SS $26 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)	~$10	27 Nov 2026	22d left	-$0.09/sh	-$4,531 cycle +$469 [-$12,136…-$4,011] · 6% credit	88% surv 86%
budget: banked $5,000 debit $4,531 (91% used ≈ 0.4 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$469 cash · rolled 500 ct earn ≈ $17,065/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell

🛡 Safer · sell 500 × $9.50 20 Nov 2026 (17d) · higher survival, lighter premiumroll menu if challenged ▾

Survival (stays ≤ $9.50)

90%

Touch odds

21%

Per cycle

$6,000

Income / mo

$10,588

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (500 ct)	POP / surv of new CC
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$10	27 Nov 2026	16d left	+$0.21/sh	+$10,333 cycle +$16,333 [+$9,506…+$16,698] · 100% credit	70% surv 55%
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)	~$10	27 Nov 2026	16d left	+$0.00/sh	+$219 cycle +$6,219 [-$1,830…+$4,919] · 56% credit	72% surv 62%
Max even-money escape in the band	~$10	27 Nov 2026	16d left	+$0.00/sh	+$219 cycle +$6,219 [-$1,830…+$4,919] · 56% credit	72% surv 62%
SS $26 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder

⚔ FIGHT CC options · full candidate scan (11 clear the floor), click to expand

Every eligible strike x expiry in the 3-45 DTE band (4 expiries scanned, 11 clear the income floor), each sized to the minimum contracts that clear it. Sorted by survival (safest first): the primary 🎯 is the safest; rows below trade safety for income.

Fortress delta: 0.380 (IBKR) | Recovery@SS: +$0 (un-capped fortress gain if stock rallies to SS) | Do-nothing @ SS: $4,500

Strike	DTE	Expiry	Bid	Sell	Per cycle	Income/mo	Net/mo	Survival	Touch	POP (mid)	EV/mo	Cap Give-up @ CC-SS	%IC	Recover	Total P&L @ SS
$8	3d	6 Nov 2026	$0.10	500/500	$5,000	$50,000	$50,000	83%hist 86%	35%hist 31%	85%	+$16,629	-$0	0.0%	0.0mo	$9,000 (vs do-nothing +$4,500)
$8	10d	13 Nov 2026	$0.28	500/500	$14,000	$42,000	$42,000	75%hist 83%	53%hist 45%	80%	+$12,331	-$0	0.0%	0.0mo	$18,000 (vs do-nothing +$13,500)
$8	17d	20 Nov 2026	$0.38	500/500	$19,000	$33,529	$33,529	73%hist 83%	59%hist 45%	79%	+$8,626	-$0	0.0%	0.0mo	$23,000 (vs do-nothing +$18,500)
$7.50	3d	6 Nov 2026	$0.23	500/500	$11,500	$115,000	$115,000	69%hist 66%	66%hist 55%	76%	+$29,085	-$0	0.0%	0.0mo	$15,500 (vs do-nothing +$11,000)
$7.50	10d	13 Nov 2026	$0.43	500/500	$21,500	$64,500	$64,500	65%hist 66%	76%hist 67%	74%	+$13,791	-$0	0.0%	0.0mo	$25,500 (vs do-nothing +$21,000)
$7.50	17d	20 Nov 2026	$0.54	500/500	$27,000	$47,647	$47,647	64%hist 66%	80%hist 67%	74%	+$9,046	-$0	0.0%	0.0mo	$31,000 (vs do-nothing +$26,500)
$7.50	24d	27 Nov 2026	$0.62	500/500	$31,000	$38,750	$38,750	64%hist 66%	81%hist 79%	74%	+$7,529	-$0	0.0%	0.0mo	$35,000 (vs do-nothing +$30,500)
$7	24d	27 Nov 2026	$0.85	500/500	$42,500	$53,125	$53,125	54%hist 69%	100%hist 89%	69%	+$8,477	-$0	0.0%	0.0mo	$46,500 (vs do-nothing +$42,000)
$7	17d	20 Nov 2026	$0.77	500/500	$38,500	$67,941	$67,941	53%hist 69%	100%hist 89%	69%	+$10,258	-$0	0.0%	0.0mo	$42,500 (vs do-nothing +$38,000)
$7	10d	13 Nov 2026	$0.65	500/500	$32,500	$97,500	$97,500	52%hist 69%	100%hist 89%	68%	+$14,867	-$0	0.0%	0.0mo	$36,500 (vs do-nothing +$32,000)
$7	3d	6 Nov 2026	$0.44	500/500	$22,000	$220,000	$220,000	50%	100%hist 89%	67%	+$33,045	-$0	0.0%	0.0mo	$26,000 (vs do-nothing +$21,500)

50 more priced, not eligible (safety, income floor or quote screens): shown for reference

Strike	DTE	Expiry	Bid	Sell	Per cycle	Income/mo	Net/mo	Survival	Touch	POP (mid)	EV/mo	Cap Give-up @ CC-SS	%IC	Recover	Total P&L @ SS	Why not eligible
$19	24d	27 Nov 2026	$0.01	500/500	$500	$625	$625	99+%hist 96%	1%hist 3%	100%	+$499	-$0	0.0%	0.0mo	$4,500 (vs do-nothing +$0)	50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$18	24d	27 Nov 2026	$0.01	500/500	$500	$625	$625	99+%hist 96%	1%hist 3%	100%	+$461	-$0	0.0%	0.0mo	$4,500 (vs do-nothing +$0)	50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$17	24d	27 Nov 2026	$0.01	500/500	$500	$625	$625	99%hist 96%	1%hist 3%	99%	+$417	-$0	0.0%	0.0mo	$4,500 (vs do-nothing +$0)	50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$17	17d	20 Nov 2026	$0.01	500/500	$500	$882	$882	99%hist 96%	1%hist 3%	99%	+$563	-$0	0.0%	0.0mo	$4,500 (vs do-nothing +$0)	50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$14	10d	13 Nov 2026	$0.01	500/500	$500	$1,500	$1,500	99%hist 96%	1%hist 3%	99%	+$1,148	-$0	0.0%	0.0mo	$4,500 (vs do-nothing +$0)	50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$16	17d	20 Nov 2026	$0.01	500/500	$500	$882	$882	99%hist 96%	2%hist 3%	99%	+$549	-$0	0.0%	0.0mo	$4,500 (vs do-nothing +$0)	50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$16	24d	27 Nov 2026	$0.01	500/500	$500	$625	$625	99%hist 96%	2%hist 3%	99%	+$365	-$0	0.0%	0.0mo	$4,500 (vs do-nothing +$0)	50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$15	17d	20 Nov 2026	$0.01	500/500	$500	$882	$882	99%hist 96%	2%hist 3%	99%	+$547	-$0	0.0%	0.0mo	$4,500 (vs do-nothing +$0)	50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$15.50	24d	27 Nov 2026	$0.01	500/500	$500	$625	$625	99%hist 96%	2%hist 3%	99%	+$333	-$0	0.0%	0.0mo	$4,500 (vs do-nothing +$0)	50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$13.50	10d	13 Nov 2026	$0.01	500/500	$500	$1,500	$1,500	99%hist 96%	2%hist 3%	99%	+$984	-$0	0.0%	0.0mo	$4,500 (vs do-nothing +$0)	50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$14	17d	20 Nov 2026	$0.01	500/500	$500	$882	$882	99%hist 96%	2%hist 3%	99%	+$510	-$0	0.0%	0.0mo	$4,500 (vs do-nothing +$0)	50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$15	24d	27 Nov 2026	$0.01	500/500	$500	$625	$625	99%hist 96%	2%hist 3%	99%	+$294	-$0	0.0%	0.0mo	$4,500 (vs do-nothing +$0)	50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$14.50	24d	27 Nov 2026	$0.02	500/500	$1,000	$1,250	$1,250	99%hist 96%	2%hist 3%	99%	+$869	-$0	0.0%	0.0mo	$5,000 (vs do-nothing +$500)	50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$13	10d	13 Nov 2026	$0.01	500/500	$500	$1,500	$1,500	99%hist 96%	2%hist 3%	99%	+$807	-$0	0.0%	0.0mo	$4,500 (vs do-nothing +$0)	50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$13.50	17d	20 Nov 2026	$0.01	500/500	$500	$882	$882	99%hist 96%	3%hist 3%	99%	+$379	-$0	0.0%	0.0mo	$4,500 (vs do-nothing +$0)	50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$14	24d	27 Nov 2026	$0.02	500/500	$1,000	$1,250	$1,250	99%hist 96%	3%hist 3%	99%	+$803	-$0	0.0%	0.0mo	$5,000 (vs do-nothing +$500)	50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$12.50	10d	13 Nov 2026	$0.01	500/500	$500	$1,500	$1,500	99%hist 96%	3%hist 3%	99%	+$625	-$0	0.0%	0.0mo	$4,500 (vs do-nothing +$0)	50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$13	17d	20 Nov 2026	$0.02	500/500	$1,000	$1,765	$1,765	98%hist 96%	3%hist 3%	98%	+$1,097	-$0	0.0%	0.0mo	$5,000 (vs do-nothing +$500)	50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$13.50	24d	27 Nov 2026	$0.02	500/500	$1,000	$1,250	$1,250	98%hist 96%	3%hist 3%	98%	+$717	-$0	0.0%	0.0mo	$5,000 (vs do-nothing +$500)	50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$12	10d	13 Nov 2026	$0.01	500/500	$500	$1,500	$1,500	98%hist 96%	4%hist 3%	98%	+$431	-$0	0.0%	0.0mo	$4,500 (vs do-nothing +$0)	50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$12.50	17d	20 Nov 2026	$0.02	500/500	$1,000	$1,765	$1,765	98%hist 96%	4%hist 3%	98%	+$1,041	-$0	0.0%	0.0mo	$5,000 (vs do-nothing +$500)	50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$12	17d	20 Nov 2026	$0.02	500/500	$1,000	$1,765	$1,765	98%hist 96%	4%hist 3%	98%	+$1,090	-$0	0.0%	0.0mo	$5,000 (vs do-nothing +$500)	50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$13	24d	27 Nov 2026	$0.03	500/500	$1,500	$1,875	$1,875	98%hist 96%	4%hist 3%	98%	+$1,224	-$0	0.0%	0.0mo	$5,500 (vs do-nothing +$1,000)	50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$9.50	3d	6 Nov 2026	$0.01	500/500	$500	$5,000	$5,000	98%hist 96%	4%hist 3%	98%	+$3,434	-$0	0.0%	0.0mo	$4,500 (vs do-nothing +$0)	50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$11.50	10d	13 Nov 2026	$0.02	500/500	$1,000	$3,000	$3,000	98%hist 96%	5%hist 3%	98%	+$1,696	-$0	0.0%	0.0mo	$5,000 (vs do-nothing +$500)	50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$12.50	24d	27 Nov 2026	$0.03	500/500	$1,500	$1,875	$1,875	98%hist 96%	5%hist 3%	98%	+$1,062	-$0	0.0%	0.0mo	$5,500 (vs do-nothing +$1,000)	50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$11	10d	13 Nov 2026	$0.02	500/500	$1,000	$3,000	$3,000	97%hist 96%	6%hist 3%	97%	+$1,352	-$0	0.0%	0.0mo	$5,000 (vs do-nothing +$500)	50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$11.50	17d	20 Nov 2026	$0.03	500/500	$1,500	$2,647	$2,647	97%hist 96%	6%hist 3%	97%	+$1,490	-$0	0.0%	0.0mo	$5,500 (vs do-nothing +$1,000)	50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$12	24d	27 Nov 2026	$0.04	500/500	$2,000	$2,500	$2,500	97%hist 96%	6%hist 3%	97%	+$1,457	-$0	0.0%	0.0mo	$6,000 (vs do-nothing +$1,500)	50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$11	17d	20 Nov 2026	$0.04	500/500	$2,000	$3,529	$3,529	96%hist 96%	7%hist 3%	97%	+$1,952	-$0	0.0%	0.0mo	$6,000 (vs do-nothing +$1,500)	50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$10.50	10d	13 Nov 2026	$0.03	500/500	$1,500	$4,500	$4,500	96%hist 96%	7%hist 3%	97%	+$2,268	-$0	0.0%	0.0mo	$5,500 (vs do-nothing +$1,000)	50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$11.50	24d	27 Nov 2026	$0.05	500/500	$2,500	$3,125	$3,125	96%hist 96%	8%hist 3%	97%	+$1,744	-$0	0.0%	0.0mo	$6,500 (vs do-nothing +$2,000)	50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$9	3d	6 Nov 2026	$0.02	500/500	$1,000	$10,000	$10,000	96%hist 96%	8%hist 3%	96%	+$5,427	-$0	0.0%	0.0mo	$5,000 (vs do-nothing +$500)	50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$11	24d	27 Nov 2026	$0.07	500/500	$3,500	$4,375	$4,375	95%hist 96%	10%hist 3%	96%	+$2,481	-$0	0.0%	0.0mo	$7,500 (vs do-nothing +$3,000)	50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$10	10d	13 Nov 2026	$0.05	500/500	$2,500	$7,500	$7,500	95%hist 96%	10%hist 13%	95%	+$4,193	-$0	0.0%	0.0mo	$6,500 (vs do-nothing +$2,000)	50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$10.50	17d	20 Nov 2026	$0.06	500/500	$3,000	$5,294	$5,294	95%hist 96%	10%hist 13%	95%	+$2,846	-$0	0.0%	0.0mo	$7,000 (vs do-nothing +$2,500)	50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$10.50	24d	27 Nov 2026	$0.09	500/500	$4,500	$5,625	$5,625	94%hist 96%	13%hist 13%	94%	+$2,936	-$0	0.0%	0.0mo	$8,500 (vs do-nothing +$4,000)	50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$10	17d	20 Nov 2026	$0.09	500/500	$4,500	$7,941	$7,941	93%hist 96%	15%hist 13%	94%	+$4,092	-$0	0.0%	0.0mo	$8,500 (vs do-nothing +$4,000)	50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$9.50	10d	13 Nov 2026	$0.07	500/500	$3,500	$10,500	$10,500	93%hist 96%	15%hist 13%	93%	+$5,139	-$0	0.0%	0.0mo	$7,500 (vs do-nothing +$3,000)	50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$10	24d	27 Nov 2026	$0.12	500/500	$6,000	$7,500	$7,500	92%hist 96%	18%hist 13%	92%	+$3,556	-$0	0.0%	0.0mo	$10,000 (vs do-nothing +$5,500)	50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$8.50	3d	6 Nov 2026	$0.04	500/500	$2,000	$20,000	$20,000	92%hist 96%	17%hist 13%	92%	+$7,840	-$0	0.0%	0.0mo	$6,000 (vs do-nothing +$1,500)	50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$9.50	17d	20 Nov 2026	$0.12	500/500	$6,000	$10,588	$10,588	90%hist 96%	21%hist 22%	91%	+$4,406	-$0	0.0%	0.0mo	$10,000 (vs do-nothing +$5,500)	50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$9	10d	13 Nov 2026	$0.11	500/500	$5,500	$16,500	$16,500	89%hist 86%	23%hist 22%	90%	+$7,185	-$0	0.0%	0.0mo	$9,500 (vs do-nothing +$5,000)	50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$9.50	24d	27 Nov 2026	$0.17	500/500	$8,500	$10,625	$10,625	89%hist 86%	24%hist 22%	90%	+$4,687	-$0	0.0%	0.0mo	$12,500 (vs do-nothing +$8,000)	50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$9	17d	20 Nov 2026	$0.18	500/500	$9,000	$15,882	$15,882	86%hist 86%	30%hist 31%	88%	+$5,991	-$0	0.0%	0.0mo	$13,000 (vs do-nothing +$8,500)	50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$9	24d	27 Nov 2026	$0.23	500/500	$11,500	$14,375	$14,375	84%hist 86%	34%hist 31%	87%	+$5,308	-$0	0.0%	0.0mo	$15,500 (vs do-nothing +$11,000)	50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$8.50	10d	13 Nov 2026	$0.17	500/500	$8,500	$25,500	$25,500	83%hist 86%	35%hist 31%	86%	+$8,788	-$0	0.0%	0.0mo	$12,500 (vs do-nothing +$8,000)	50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$8.50	17d	20 Nov 2026	$0.26	500/500	$13,000	$22,941	$22,941	80%hist 86%	42%hist 40%	84%	+$7,222	-$0	0.0%	0.0mo	$17,000 (vs do-nothing +$12,500)	50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$8.50	24d	27 Nov 2026	$0.32	500/500	$16,000	$20,000	$20,000	79%hist 83%	46%hist 40%	83%	+$6,061	-$0	0.0%	0.0mo	$20,000 (vs do-nothing +$15,500)	50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract
$8	24d	27 Nov 2026	$0.45	500/500	$22,500	$28,125	$28,125	72%hist 83%	62%hist 55%	78%	+$6,887	-$0	0.0%	0.0mo	$26,500 (vs do-nothing +$22,000)	50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract

Per cycle = bid x 100 x contracts, the cash this expiry pays. Touch = P(strike trades before expiry), with the graded record's hist pill. Recover = months of this income to close the hole to CC-SS. Income/mo = FIGHT leg gross, DTE-prorated. Net/mo = FIGHT + conservative CC gross minus hedge cost. POP (mid) = probability stock closes at or below (strike + mid premium) at expiry, per-strike chain IV when available. Survival = CC expires fully worthless. EV/mo = premium minus expected buyback, monthly, with realized vol = IV x 85% (variance risk premium 15%). Survival, POP and touch use vol x 1.00 (raw implied: the VRP haircut is applied to the premium edge but NOT to risk, because understating the edge costs opportunity while understating breach odds costs capital; the risk-side haircut arms only from the graded ledger). Cap give-up @ SS = recovery mortgaged on a V-bounce to SS, net of premium. Total P&L @ SS = absolute position P&L if the stock closes at SS; "vs do-nothing" = opportunity cost against holding all 500 contracts at the conservative CC.

fortress_fight.py v6.3 | 2026-11-04 04:19